Weekly economic and market update – Week ending 17 January, 2025

From

Investment markets and key developments Shares mostly rose over the last week helped by lower-than-expected underlying inflation in the US which boosted confidence that the Fed was still on track... Read more continue reading

US CPI is better but still “sticky” and December labour force data could be pivotal for the RBA

From

US CPI: better but still “sticky”. The Fed policy rate: ditto. Where to for US bond yields? The robust December payrolls report was something of a death knell for a... Read more continue reading

More volatile and constrained – the macro investment outlook for 2025

From

Key points 2024 was another strong year for investors with shares up strongly on the back of better than feared growth & profits and global central banks cutting rates. Volatility... Read more continue reading

The Fed: diluting the punchbowl?

From

Former Federal Reserve Chair William McChesney Martin was the longest serving Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair, serving almost 19 years until January 1970. He is famous for his description of the... Read more continue reading

Weekly economic and market update – week ending 13 December, 2024

From

Investment markets and key developments Global shares were mixed over the last week with a back up in bond yields and a bit of profit taking after a strong run... Read more continue reading

Australia’s falling living standards – what’s driving it and how to fix it

From

Key points Falling real wages and a surge in tax and interest payments have led to a slump in Australian living standards. But a broader driver of the malaise in... Read more continue reading

Weekly economic and market update – week ending 6 December, 2024

From

Investment markets and key developments Despite another week of geopolitical noise with the fall of the French Government, a few hours of martial law in South Korea and more noise... Read more continue reading

Australian GDP and the RBA: the February door is ajar

From

In some sense the September quarter national accounts don’t reveal much that wasn’t already known. Private demand is weak, but apparent supply constraints (exemplified by ongoing languishing productivity) are a... Read more continue reading

Goldilocks stayed for 2024, but what’s in store for investors in 2025?

From

Key points The key themes for 2024 were: better than feared growth; global divergence; more disinflation; falling interest rates but with Australia lagging; and more geopolitical threats but not as... Read more continue reading

Trump 2.0: Why investors should expect a somewhat rougher ride, but it may not be as bad as feared

From

Key points The economic and financial environment today is more challenging than when Trump first took over in 2017: inflation is a bit higher, the budget deficit is worse, bond... Read more continue reading