The NAB business confidence index improved from minus 8.8 points to +2.9 points in December – the best result since July 2012. The business conditions index improved from minus 6.0 points to minus 4.3 points. The survey of 500 businesses took place from 9-15 January and pre-dates the low inflation result and ongoing improvement in [...]
continue readingEconomy-wide spending softened in December, extending the zig-zag run witnessed over the past seven months. According to the Commonwealth Bank Business Sales Indicator (BSI), spending fell by 1.9 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms in December after rising by 2.4 per cent in November. But the less volatile trend estimate of spending shows that underlying [...]
continue readingHow are Australia’s states and territories performing? Each quarter CommSec attempts to find out by analysing eight key indicators: economic growth; retail spending; equipment investment; unemployment, construction work done; population growth; housing finance and dwelling commencements. Just as the Reserve Bank uses decade averages to determine the level of “normal” interest rates; we have done [...]
continue readingThe Chinese economy grew at a 7.9 per cent annual rate in the December quarter (consensus 7.7 per cent) up from 7.4 per cent in the previous quarter. In the December quarter the economy grew by 2 per cent, below the consensus estimate of 2.2 per cent. Retail sales in December were up 15.2 per [...]
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Jan
2013
The ASX 200 Accumulation index – measuring total returns on shares – has lifted by almost 20 per cent over the past year. The index is 12.2 per cent from record highs. Consumer Staples, Utilities and HealthCare indexes hit record highs yesterday. What does it all mean? Traditionally, when investors have wanted to know how [...]
continue readingIf the Reserve Bank cuts interest rates again, would the impact be positive on the economy? It is an interesting question and one that the Reserve Bank probably didn’t think that it would ever need to contemplate. But Aussie consumers are shunning debt, even with historically low interest rates. And with the value of term [...]
continue readingIn the past, buying and selling property was considered an attractive way to make money. The theory was that home prices would rise around 8 per cent a year, almost guaranteeing you would make money. That was in the past. Now Aussie consumers are more cautious on going into debt, restraining demand for existing homes. [...]
continue readingThe latest Reserve Bank Board minutes suggests that the decision to cut interest rates in December was largely due to the softening in labour market conditions and confirmation of the peak in resource investment. The Reserve Bank Board members conceded that the pull back in the mining sector was impacting the broader economy. “Members observed [...]
continue readingFor the best part of the past decade, CommSec has produced “The Big Issues” report – a report that has sought to highlight issues that are expected to influence on the economy over the forthcoming 12 months. Now this is no crystal ball gazing exercise. The aim is not just to forecast where certain economic [...]
continue readingIs there a Santa Claus effect? CommSec has always been sceptical about research showing whether there is a ‘right’ time to be buying shares. But we decided to re-visit the data, dissecting monthly figures on the sharemarket over the past 70 years to assess whether there are consistent trends on ‘good’ and ‘bad’ times to [...]
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