• Business confidence is up; conditions are down. According to the NAB business survey, the business confidence index rose from +2.4 in July to +11.2 in August. The business conditions index fell from +5.3 in July to +4.5 in August – the fourth decline in five months.
• Retail discounting returns. The NAB survey suggested that discounting had returned with retail prices up just 0.1 per cent in August.
• ABARE has lifted its crop forecasts. ABARE has lifted its forecast for the wheat crop by 13.4 per cent. The wheat crop is now seen up 15.9 per cent on a year ago. The cotton crop is expected to be up 69 per cent. The overall winter crop is expected to be the third largest on record.
• Yesterday we reported the latest credit & debit card data. We revisit the issue by focussing on the changing use of cash in the community. Fewer dollars are being credited to accounts and fewer dollars are being withdrawn from ATMs while EFTPOS transactions are rising. All this suggests that cash payments are alive and well across the economy. The increased preference for cash also raises fresh questions on the size of the ‘black economy’ in Australia.

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