AdviserVoiceLa Niña gauge hits 10-week low https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2011/02/la-nina-gauge-hits-10-week-low/ Financial planner information & financial planner education/CPD - AdviserVoice Thu, 04 Jun 2026 21:30:42 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=7.0 La Niña gauge hits 10-week low https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2011/02/la-nina-gauge-hits-10-week-low/ https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2011/02/la-nina-gauge-hits-10-week-low/#respond Mon, 14 Feb 2011 06:03:29 +0000 https://adviservoice.com.au/?p=5887 La Niña update
  • There are further signs that the current La Niña weather event has peaked. The Southern Oscillation index fell to a 10-week low of +18.1 on February 11. The current La Niña event is the most significant since 1917 and is having widespread effects on the economy and the broader community.
  • The Bureau of Meteorology releases its next climate update on Wednesday.

What does it all mean?

  • La Niña is still in force, but a raft of businesses will be urgently hoping that recent signs of easing conditions continue. The La Niña gauge – the Southern Oscillation Index – has fallen to a 10-week low but the reading of +18.1 is still above the generally assumed La Niña threshold of +8.

What do the figures show?

  • The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) tracks the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) as a means of defining El Niño or La Niña. The SOI measures differences in air pressures between Tahiti and Darwin. Consistent readings of the SOI above +8 indicate a La Niña event – associated with cooler, wetter weather in eastern and northern Australia and an increase in tropical cyclones in northern Australia. The current La Niña event is the strongest since 1917/18. The current La Niña climate event began in July 2010.
  • The 30-day average of the Southern Oscillation index fell to a 10-week low of 18.1 on February 11. The index had fallen for nine straight days to an 8-week low of +19.3 in late January before again moving higher. The latest downturn of the SOI has extended for six days.
  • In its last update, BOM said its indicators “continue to indicate a strong, mature La Niña, although there are clear signs the event has passed its peak.” The next update from BOM is on Wednesday.
  • The US Climate Prediction Centre also monitors upperocean temperature anomalies in the Pacific to track La Niña events. It notes that the negative anomalies associated with La Niña have weakened since early January and are back to levels in mid May 2010.

What are the implications for investors?

  • La Niña is clearly a watching brief for investors. But while recent trends of tempering conditions are encouraging, there is still some way to go before it can be declared that La Niña is ending.
  • More generally, however, recent milder, wetter weather over eastern and southern states has represented good news for department stores and other clothing retailers that are currently stocking shelves with autumn gear.

Produced by Commonwealth Research based on information available at the time of publishing. We believe that the information in this report is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held or made as at the time of its compilation, but no warranty is made as to accuracy, reliability or completeness. To the extent permitted by law, neither Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 nor any of its subsidiaries accept liability to any person for loss or damage arising from the use of this report.

The report has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. For this reason, any individual should, before acting on the information in this report, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to the individual’s objectives, financial situation and needs
and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice. In the case of certain securities Commonwealth Bank of Australia is or may be the only market maker.

This report is approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399 a wholly owned but not guaranteed subsidiary of Commonwealth Bank of Australia. This report is approved and distributed in the UK by Commonwealth Bank of Australia incorporated in Australia with limited liability.
Registered in England No. BR250 and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority (FSA). This report does not purport to be a complete statement or summary. For the purpose of the FSA rules, this report and related services are not intended for private customers and are not available to them.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia and its subsidiaries have effected or may effect transactions for their own account in any investments or related investments referred to in this report.

]]> La Niña update
  • There are further signs that the current La Niña weather event has peaked. The Southern Oscillation index fell to a 10-week low of +18.1 on February 11. The current La Niña event is the most significant since 1917 and is having widespread effects on the economy and the broader community.
  • The Bureau of Meteorology releases its next climate update on Wednesday.

What does it all mean?

  • La Niña is still in force, but a raft of businesses will be urgently hoping that recent signs of easing conditions continue. The La Niña gauge – the Southern Oscillation Index – has fallen to a 10-week low but the reading of +18.1 is still above the generally assumed La Niña threshold of +8.

What do the figures show?

  • The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) tracks the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) as a means of defining El Niño or La Niña. The SOI measures differences in air pressures between Tahiti and Darwin. Consistent readings of the SOI above +8 indicate a La Niña event – associated with cooler, wetter weather in eastern and northern Australia and an increase in tropical cyclones in northern Australia. The current La Niña event is the strongest since 1917/18. The current La Niña climate event began in July 2010.
  • The 30-day average of the Southern Oscillation index fell to a 10-week low of 18.1 on February 11. The index had fallen for nine straight days to an 8-week low of +19.3 in late January before again moving higher. The latest downturn of the SOI has extended for six days.
  • In its last update, BOM said its indicators “continue to indicate a strong, mature La Niña, although there are clear signs the event has passed its peak.” The next update from BOM is on Wednesday.
  • The US Climate Prediction Centre also monitors upperocean temperature anomalies in the Pacific to track La Niña events. It notes that the negative anomalies associated with La Niña have weakened since early January and are back to levels in mid May 2010.

What are the implications for investors?

  • La Niña is clearly a watching brief for investors. But while recent trends of tempering conditions are encouraging, there is still some way to go before it can be declared that La Niña is ending.
  • More generally, however, recent milder, wetter weather over eastern and southern states has represented good news for department stores and other clothing retailers that are currently stocking shelves with autumn gear.

Produced by Commonwealth Research based on information available at the time of publishing. We believe that the information in this report is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held or made as at the time of its compilation, but no warranty is made as to accuracy, reliability or completeness. To the extent permitted by law, neither Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 nor any of its subsidiaries accept liability to any person for loss or damage arising from the use of this report.

The report has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. For this reason, any individual should, before acting on the information in this report, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to the individual’s objectives, financial situation and needs
and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice. In the case of certain securities Commonwealth Bank of Australia is or may be the only market maker.

This report is approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399 a wholly owned but not guaranteed subsidiary of Commonwealth Bank of Australia. This report is approved and distributed in the UK by Commonwealth Bank of Australia incorporated in Australia with limited liability.
Registered in England No. BR250 and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority (FSA). This report does not purport to be a complete statement or summary. For the purpose of the FSA rules, this report and related services are not intended for private customers and are not available to them.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia and its subsidiaries have effected or may effect transactions for their own account in any investments or related investments referred to in this report.

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