The key points are as follows:

• Cyclical fluctuations in investment returns are particularly important for investors. Most take their lead from economic developments but are magnified by swings in investor sentiment.
• Of particular importance are the long term cycles driven by waves of innovation and the 3-5 year business cycle. Right now we are still in the upswing phase of the business cycle, but still in the context of weak and constrained phase of the long term cycle.
• Investors ignore cycles at their peril. Periods of poor returns invariably give way to periods of good returns and vice versa.

 To read this issue of Oliver’s Insights, click here.

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