The key points are as follows:

• After strong gains shares are at risk of a correction as we move into a seasonally weaker period of the year and given ongoing risks in Europe, a possible soft patch in US economic data and threats from a variety of sources such as bird flu and North Korea and as Australian economic conditions remain messy.
• However, less scary conditions in Europe, stronger US private demand, aggressive Japanese monetary reflation & emerging signs the Australian economy is responding to lower interest rates suggest a re-run of the 15 to 20% falls seen around mid 2010 and mid 2011 are unlikely.
• Notwithstanding the risk of a bout of mid year volatility our broader cyclical view for shares remains positive, with further gains likely this year.

To read this edition of Oliver’s Insights, click here.

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