The key points are as follows:

• China’s worries are overblown. Property tightening is likely to remain highly targeted and unlikely to threaten overall growth with aggressive monetary tightening unlikely.
• On the other hand, reflecting a desire for more sustainable growth there has not been enough stimulus to ensure a strong rebound. Rather, growth this year is likely to come in around 8%, similar to last year’s 7.8%.
• Chinese shares remain cheap. While periodic growth worries are likely to constrain returns they are nevertheless likely to be reasonable this year.

To read this issue of Oliver’s Insights, click here.

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