• The Internet Vacancy Index (IVI) from the National Skills Commission fell by 3.8 per cent in July (or by 11,249 available positions) to 288,465 available positions. Recruitment activity decreased for the first time in seven months with the number of vacancies down from a 14-year high of 299,714 positions in June.
• Skilled job vacancies, however, were up by 24.5 per cent (or 56,725 ads) in July on a year ago and were 71.4 per cent (or around 120,200 available positions) higher than pre-Covid levels.
• In three-month moving average terms, regional job vacancies hit an all-time high 86,865 available positions in July (highest since May 2010), up by 4.2 per cent from June. Vacancies are up 24.7 per cent on a year ago and 104.5 per cent above pre-Covid levels. Ads are at record highs in 15 regions.

What does it all mean?

• Australia’s “Great Job Boom” may have peaked. A month ago, SEEK reported that online job ad volumes fell by 2.1 per cent in June. Then earlier this month, ANZ reported that its measure of the number of job ads slid by 1.1 per cent in July. And today, the National Skills Commission issued its detailed Internet Vacancy Index (IVI), which declined by 3.8 per cent in July, also posting its first fall in the number of job vacancies in 2022.
• While labour demand appears to be easing, as rising interest rates and soaring inflation begin to slow hiring activity, the number of unfilled job vacancies around the country remains extraordinarily elevated. In fact, the IVI is still a massive 71.4 per cent (or around 120,200 ads) higher than pre-Covid levels in February 2020. And with 288,465 ads still being advertised on SEEK, CareerOne and JobSearch, available online positions in July were a smidgen below 14-year highs.
• Nationally, job ads fell in 41 of the 48 occupational groups last month. Hospitality Workers recorded the largest fall (down by 3,400 job advertisements or 31.6 per cent), followed by Food Trades Workers (down by 1,600 job advertisements or 18.4 per cent) and Food Preparation Assistants (down by 1,100 job advertisements or 36.4 per cent). But Mobile Plant Operators recorded the largest increase (up by 180 job advertisements or 4.6 per cent).
• Recruitment activity decreased across all states and territories in July. Vacancies declined by the most in the Northern Territory (down by 8.2 per cent or 257 job ads), followed by Victoria (down by 7.8 per cent or 6,239 job ads) and the ACT (down by 6.0 per cent or 488 job ads).
• Australia’s regions experienced a renaissance in the pandemic with record-breaking recruitment activity. In three-month moving average terms, regional job vacancies hit an all-time high 86,865 available positions in July (highest since May 2010), up by 4.2 per cent from June. Vacancies are up 24.7 per cent on a year ago and 104.5 per cent above pre-Covid levels. Ads are at record highs in 15 Aussie regions.
• Across major capital cities, the number of skilled job vacancies hit record highs (highest since May 2010) in Brisbane (33,906), Adelaide (13,232) and Perth (26,009) in three-month moving average terms in July. Vacancies in Hobart reached an all-time high of 2,196 available positions, but is classified as a “regional area” due to the broader inclusion of Southeast Tasmania by the National Skills Commission.
• Australia’s labour market has been incredibly strong during the pandemic. In July, the unemployment rate fell to a 48-year low of just 3.4 per cent and the underutilisation rate hit a 40-year low of 9.4 per cent. But wages grew by just 2.6 per cent over the year to June, the strongest annual growth rate in eight years. And with consumer prices soaring by 6.1 per cent over the same period, real wages fell by 3.5 per cent, the worst outcome for Aussie workers since the Bureau of Statistics began measuring wages in 1997. And recent forecasts by the Reserve Bank suggest that real wages will remain negative – that is, wages growing more slowly than consumer prices – for the next two years (to June 2024).
• One of the tasks of policymakers at the upcoming Jobs and Skills Summit in September will be to investigate the imbalance that has arisen between company profits and labour compensation. Productivity-driven real wages growth will only occur if a more equitable method of wage setting is implemented.
• And while an increase in skilled migration could improve labour mobility and job matching, the re-opening of borders is likely to eventually boost labour supply at a time when the economy is slowing, pushing up the unemployment rate. In our view, these changing labour market dynamics is likely to see the Reserve Bank pivot to a more gradual pace of interest rate hikes in the coming months with the official cash rate peaking at 2.6 per cent by year-end.

What do you need to know?

Skilled job vacancies – July

• The Internet Vacancy Index (IVI) from the National Skills Commission fell by 3.8 per cent in July (or by 11,249 available positions) to 288,465 available positions. Recruitment activity decreased for the first time in seven months with the number of vacancies down from a 14-year high of 299,714 positions in June.
• But skilled job vacancies were up by 24.5 per cent (or 56,725 ads) in July on a year ago and were 71.4 per cent (or around 120,200 available positions) higher than pre-Covid levels.
• Skilled job vacancies fell across all states and territories in July, led by declines in the Northern Territory, where recruitment activity fell by 8.2 per cent (or 257 job ads), followed by Victoria (down by 7.8 per cent or 6,239 job ads), the ACT (down by 6.0 per cent or 488 job ads), Queensland (down by 4.0 per cent or 2,436 job ads), Western Australia (down by 3.6 per cent or 1,242 job ads), Tasmania (down by 3.5 per cent or 152 job ads), NSW (down by 2.6 per cent or 2,430 job ads), and South Australia (down by 0.8 per cent or 125 job ads).
• Job vacancies decreased in 41 of the 48 major occupational groups in July. Hospitality Workers recorded the largest fall (down by 3,400 job advertisements or 31.6 per cent), followed by Food Trades Workers (down by 1,600 job advertisements or 18.4 per cent) and Food Preparation Assistants (down by 1,100 job advertisements or 36.4 per cent). But Mobile Plant Operators recorded the largest increase (up by 180 job advertisements or 4.6 per cent).

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