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                <title>Corporate capex provides solid footing for US equities</title>
                <link>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2026/06/corporate-capex-provides-solid-footing-for-us-equities/</link>
                <comments>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2026/06/corporate-capex-provides-solid-footing-for-us-equities/#respond</comments>
                <pubDate>Thu, 11 Jun 2026 21:10:36 +0000</pubDate>
                <dc:creator>
                                    </dc:creator>
                		<category><![CDATA[Investment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jeff Schulze]]></category>
                <guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.adviservoice.com.au/?p=111870</guid>
                                    <description><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_90506" style="width: 660px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-90506" class="size-full wp-image-90506" src="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/schulze-jeffrey-650.jpg" alt="" width="650" height="350" srcset="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/schulze-jeffrey-650.jpg 650w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/schulze-jeffrey-650-300x162.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px" /><p id="caption-attachment-90506" class="wp-caption-text">Jeffrey Schulze</p></div>
<h3>Corporate capex is supporting economic growth in the US, according to Jeff Schulze, head of economic and market strategy at ClearBridge Investments.</h3>
<p>Artificial intelligence (AI) investment in data centers requires related power, cooling, networking, semiconductor and software infrastructure, which now accounts for ~1% of GDP.</p>
<p>“Capex is not just limited to AI, however, with several other metrics showing green shoots. These include the ISM Manufacturing PMI survey, which has held above 50 in each of the past five months, along with inflections in industrial production and core capital goods (non-defense, ex-aircraft) orders and shipments. This pickup in capex is a positive sign and is likely being helped at the margin by the corporate tax incentives from the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB).</p>
<p>“With consumers and companies continuing to forge ahead, we remain optimistic that markets can continue to rally over the medium term. Endemic to that view is the fact that the market’s upside over the past year has come on the back of improving fundamentals with multiples de-rating modestly. Put differently, equities have climbed higher on the back of stronger earnings, an encouraging foundation for a continuation of the bull market.</p>
<p>“History shows that investors should not be scared off by the market’s recent strength, even though the S&amp;P 500’s surge in April and May ranks among the top 10 strongest two-month stretches since 1950. While several similarly sharp rallies have occurred around recessions, many others were rooted firmly within economic expansions, including 1997, 1998, 2019 and 2025.</p>
<p>“When focusing on non-recessionary periods specifically, history shows that stocks have continued to advance following similar surges, with average returns of 5.3% and 8.5% over the subsequent three and six months, respectively.</p>
<p>“Although bouts of volatility are likely, robust corporate earnings should continue to provide a solid market foundation, making us inclined to continue to “buy the dips” should pullbacks emerge.”</p>
]]></description>
                                            <content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_90506" style="width: 660px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-90506" class="size-full wp-image-90506" src="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/schulze-jeffrey-650.jpg" alt="" width="650" height="350" srcset="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/schulze-jeffrey-650.jpg 650w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/schulze-jeffrey-650-300x162.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px" /><p id="caption-attachment-90506" class="wp-caption-text">Jeffrey Schulze</p></div>
<h3>Corporate capex is supporting economic growth in the US, according to Jeff Schulze, head of economic and market strategy at ClearBridge Investments.</h3>
<p>Artificial intelligence (AI) investment in data centers requires related power, cooling, networking, semiconductor and software infrastructure, which now accounts for ~1% of GDP.</p>
<p>“Capex is not just limited to AI, however, with several other metrics showing green shoots. These include the ISM Manufacturing PMI survey, which has held above 50 in each of the past five months, along with inflections in industrial production and core capital goods (non-defense, ex-aircraft) orders and shipments. This pickup in capex is a positive sign and is likely being helped at the margin by the corporate tax incentives from the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB).</p>
<p>“With consumers and companies continuing to forge ahead, we remain optimistic that markets can continue to rally over the medium term. Endemic to that view is the fact that the market’s upside over the past year has come on the back of improving fundamentals with multiples de-rating modestly. Put differently, equities have climbed higher on the back of stronger earnings, an encouraging foundation for a continuation of the bull market.</p>
<p>“History shows that investors should not be scared off by the market’s recent strength, even though the S&amp;P 500’s surge in April and May ranks among the top 10 strongest two-month stretches since 1950. While several similarly sharp rallies have occurred around recessions, many others were rooted firmly within economic expansions, including 1997, 1998, 2019 and 2025.</p>
<p>“When focusing on non-recessionary periods specifically, history shows that stocks have continued to advance following similar surges, with average returns of 5.3% and 8.5% over the subsequent three and six months, respectively.</p>
<p>“Although bouts of volatility are likely, robust corporate earnings should continue to provide a solid market foundation, making us inclined to continue to “buy the dips” should pullbacks emerge.”</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2026/06/corporate-capex-provides-solid-footing-for-us-equities/">Corporate capex provides solid footing for US equities</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au">AdviserVoice</a>.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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                <slash:comments>0</slash:comments>                            </item>
                    <item>
                <title>Resilient to bubbles and bullets </title>
                <link>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2026/06/resilient-to-bubbles-and-bullets/</link>
                <comments>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2026/06/resilient-to-bubbles-and-bullets/#respond</comments>
                <pubDate>Thu, 11 Jun 2026 21:05:51 +0000</pubDate>
                <dc:creator>
                                    </dc:creator>
                		<category><![CDATA[Investment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Iggo]]></category>
                <guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.adviservoice.com.au/?p=111887</guid>
                                    <description><![CDATA[<div>
<div>
<div id="attachment_72796" style="width: 660px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-72796" class="size-full wp-image-72796" src="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Iggo-Chris-650.png" alt="" width="650" height="350" srcset="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Iggo-Chris-650.png 650w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Iggo-Chris-650-300x162.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px" /><p id="caption-attachment-72796" class="wp-caption-text">Chris Iggo</p></div>
<h2>Shock, adjust, continue</h2>
<p>The Iran war started more than three months ago now. Investors spent a lot of time in March trying to define different scenarios and predict how the global economy and financial markets would react to a quick conflict; a prolonged one; or a total breakdown of functioning energy markets.</p>
<p>Three months on, where are we? Dated Brent &#8211; the main benchmark for crude oil &#8211; is currently trading at under $100 per barrel. It has averaged roughly $94 per barrel since the war started – double the average of the preceding three-month period.</p>
<p>That has been enough to send retail and wholesale energy prices higher, evidenced in inflation data across numerous economies. It has also been responsible for a move in forward interest rates – one-year; one-year forward US dollar and sterling rates (i.e. expectations for one-year rates in a year’s time) are 80-90 basis points higher than they were on 27 February; in the euro market the increase has been 60-70bp.</p>
<h2>Stunning returns</h2>
<p>None of this is new though. Most of the market re-pricing happened quickly. The expectation has increasingly become that a deal will be done to end the conflict, even if one has not yet been reached.</p>
<p>Since the end of March, returns have been positive. Fixed income assets have registered positive total returns, except US Treasuries and Japanese government bonds. Holding emerging market debt, subordinated and sub-investment grade credit and even long-duration European government bonds and gilts has been rewarded.</p>
<p>Interest rate expectations have even eased back. It looks as though the European Central Bank will raise rates at its 11 June meeting, but the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are expected to remain on hold this month.</p>
<p>Equity performance has been stunning. Technology stocks have led the way. The US SOX semiconductor index has achieved a total return of 79.6% since 31 March. The AI theme has become even stronger, with technology and semiconductor companies reporting strong revenues and market enthusiasm for such stocks undiminished.</p>
<p>That will be tested in the coming days and weeks by the success or otherwise of anticipated initial public offerings from SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic. Media speculation suggests that, along with Alphabet looking to raise $80 billion in new equity, these deals could raise more than $200 billion.</p>
<p>The AI theme has overwhelmed the Iran war’s potential negative risks. Those risks remain but markets are betting a deal to end the conflict and allow energy markets to start rebalancing is imminent.</p>
<p>Market based volatility indicators like the VIX and the equivalent measure of option volatility in the US Treasury market (the MOVE index) have been well behaved since mid-April.</p>
<p>Credit spreads are within touching distance of late February levels. In the currency markets, the dollar is trading about 1.5% stronger versus the euro and at a similar rate against sterling. Markets have been extremely resilient.</p>
<p>As I noted two weeks ago, the concerns about long-term government bonds have not been borne out by recent performance. For all the hysteria about gilts, the over 10-year index delivered a total return of 1.53% between the end of March and the end of May, with 73bp of that coming from income.</p>
<p>Gilt market performance might change after the Makerfield parliamentary by-election on 18 June, but higher yields are an enticing element of return for investors.</p>
<h2>Deals, deals, deals</h2>
<p>Market resilience is down to two factors; a deal to end the Iran conflict always seems to be close to hand; and the AI trade and its continued call for investors to allocate more capital.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the global economy stutters on, with the latest round of purchasing manager surveys suggesting we are far from a sharp downturn in global activity.</p>
<p>Indeed, the US ISM manufacturing index hit a four-year high in May, driven by strength in new orders which reflects all the kit being made to build data centres and the associated infrastructure.</p>
<h2>FIFA peace deal</h2>
<p>I suspect President Trump would like a deal with Iran agreed before the World Cup starts next week (remember, Iran is supposed to participate). Global attention will be on the US, and the optics would be much better if Washington could tout a peace deal before Mexico and South Africa get the competition underway.</p>
<p>The amount of global investment capital being dedicated to AI is mind-boggling and it is not surprising that many are questioning whether it is a bubble. Certainly, public equity markets are going to be even more concentrated in technology stocks once this mega-IPO round settles. Some disruption to equity prices is possible as these re-allocations take place to accommodate this record level of new equity issuance.</p>
<p>This week’s news from Broadcom – revenue forecasts underwhelmed the market – reminds us that not all players can be winners. At the same time, the world can’t make enough chips, and capital expenditure continues to drive growth (especially in the US).</p>
<h2>And the winner is…</h2>
<p>We said at the beginning of the year that resilience was a key investment theme. So far, the global economy has remained resilient. Markets have too. Yields have reset higher but there has been no wave of defaults in credit, nor any market dislocations from investors assigning higher risk premiums to government debt.</p>
<p>The valuations of the AI companies planning to float, once they have gone public, will be a real test of whether this resilience persists for the rest of 2026.</p>
<p aria-hidden="true"><strong><em>By Chris Iggo, Chief Investment Officer </em></strong></p>
<h6><em>Performance data/data sources: LSEG Workspace DataStream, ICE Data Services, Bloomberg, BNP Paribas AM, as of 4 June 2026, unless otherwise stated). Past performance should not be seen as a guide to future returns.</em></h6>
</div>
</div>
]]></description>
                                            <content:encoded><![CDATA[<div>
<div>
<div id="attachment_72796" style="width: 660px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-72796" class="size-full wp-image-72796" src="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Iggo-Chris-650.png" alt="" width="650" height="350" srcset="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Iggo-Chris-650.png 650w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Iggo-Chris-650-300x162.png 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px" /><p id="caption-attachment-72796" class="wp-caption-text">Chris Iggo</p></div>
<h2>Shock, adjust, continue</h2>
<p>The Iran war started more than three months ago now. Investors spent a lot of time in March trying to define different scenarios and predict how the global economy and financial markets would react to a quick conflict; a prolonged one; or a total breakdown of functioning energy markets.</p>
<p>Three months on, where are we? Dated Brent &#8211; the main benchmark for crude oil &#8211; is currently trading at under $100 per barrel. It has averaged roughly $94 per barrel since the war started – double the average of the preceding three-month period.</p>
<p>That has been enough to send retail and wholesale energy prices higher, evidenced in inflation data across numerous economies. It has also been responsible for a move in forward interest rates – one-year; one-year forward US dollar and sterling rates (i.e. expectations for one-year rates in a year’s time) are 80-90 basis points higher than they were on 27 February; in the euro market the increase has been 60-70bp.</p>
<h2>Stunning returns</h2>
<p>None of this is new though. Most of the market re-pricing happened quickly. The expectation has increasingly become that a deal will be done to end the conflict, even if one has not yet been reached.</p>
<p>Since the end of March, returns have been positive. Fixed income assets have registered positive total returns, except US Treasuries and Japanese government bonds. Holding emerging market debt, subordinated and sub-investment grade credit and even long-duration European government bonds and gilts has been rewarded.</p>
<p>Interest rate expectations have even eased back. It looks as though the European Central Bank will raise rates at its 11 June meeting, but the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are expected to remain on hold this month.</p>
<p>Equity performance has been stunning. Technology stocks have led the way. The US SOX semiconductor index has achieved a total return of 79.6% since 31 March. The AI theme has become even stronger, with technology and semiconductor companies reporting strong revenues and market enthusiasm for such stocks undiminished.</p>
<p>That will be tested in the coming days and weeks by the success or otherwise of anticipated initial public offerings from SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic. Media speculation suggests that, along with Alphabet looking to raise $80 billion in new equity, these deals could raise more than $200 billion.</p>
<p>The AI theme has overwhelmed the Iran war’s potential negative risks. Those risks remain but markets are betting a deal to end the conflict and allow energy markets to start rebalancing is imminent.</p>
<p>Market based volatility indicators like the VIX and the equivalent measure of option volatility in the US Treasury market (the MOVE index) have been well behaved since mid-April.</p>
<p>Credit spreads are within touching distance of late February levels. In the currency markets, the dollar is trading about 1.5% stronger versus the euro and at a similar rate against sterling. Markets have been extremely resilient.</p>
<p>As I noted two weeks ago, the concerns about long-term government bonds have not been borne out by recent performance. For all the hysteria about gilts, the over 10-year index delivered a total return of 1.53% between the end of March and the end of May, with 73bp of that coming from income.</p>
<p>Gilt market performance might change after the Makerfield parliamentary by-election on 18 June, but higher yields are an enticing element of return for investors.</p>
<h2>Deals, deals, deals</h2>
<p>Market resilience is down to two factors; a deal to end the Iran conflict always seems to be close to hand; and the AI trade and its continued call for investors to allocate more capital.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the global economy stutters on, with the latest round of purchasing manager surveys suggesting we are far from a sharp downturn in global activity.</p>
<p>Indeed, the US ISM manufacturing index hit a four-year high in May, driven by strength in new orders which reflects all the kit being made to build data centres and the associated infrastructure.</p>
<h2>FIFA peace deal</h2>
<p>I suspect President Trump would like a deal with Iran agreed before the World Cup starts next week (remember, Iran is supposed to participate). Global attention will be on the US, and the optics would be much better if Washington could tout a peace deal before Mexico and South Africa get the competition underway.</p>
<p>The amount of global investment capital being dedicated to AI is mind-boggling and it is not surprising that many are questioning whether it is a bubble. Certainly, public equity markets are going to be even more concentrated in technology stocks once this mega-IPO round settles. Some disruption to equity prices is possible as these re-allocations take place to accommodate this record level of new equity issuance.</p>
<p>This week’s news from Broadcom – revenue forecasts underwhelmed the market – reminds us that not all players can be winners. At the same time, the world can’t make enough chips, and capital expenditure continues to drive growth (especially in the US).</p>
<h2>And the winner is…</h2>
<p>We said at the beginning of the year that resilience was a key investment theme. So far, the global economy has remained resilient. Markets have too. Yields have reset higher but there has been no wave of defaults in credit, nor any market dislocations from investors assigning higher risk premiums to government debt.</p>
<p>The valuations of the AI companies planning to float, once they have gone public, will be a real test of whether this resilience persists for the rest of 2026.</p>
<p aria-hidden="true"><strong><em>By Chris Iggo, Chief Investment Officer </em></strong></p>
<h6><em>Performance data/data sources: LSEG Workspace DataStream, ICE Data Services, Bloomberg, BNP Paribas AM, as of 4 June 2026, unless otherwise stated). Past performance should not be seen as a guide to future returns.</em></h6>
</div>
</div>
<p>The post <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2026/06/resilient-to-bubbles-and-bullets/">Resilient to bubbles and bullets </a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au">AdviserVoice</a>.</p>
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                <slash:comments>0</slash:comments>                            </item>
                    <item>
                <title>AI disruption fears are driving a disconnect in global small and mid-caps</title>
                <link>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2026/06/ai-disruption-fears-are-driving-a-disconnect-in-global-small-and-mid-caps/</link>
                <comments>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2026/06/ai-disruption-fears-are-driving-a-disconnect-in-global-small-and-mid-caps/#respond</comments>
                <pubDate>Wed, 10 Jun 2026 21:15:28 +0000</pubDate>
                <dc:creator>
                                    </dc:creator>
                		<category><![CDATA[Investment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nicholas Cregan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nick Cregan]]></category>
                <guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.adviservoice.com.au/?p=111866</guid>
                                    <description><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_64087" style="width: 660px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-64087" class="size-full wp-image-64087" src="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Cregan-Nicholas-650.jpg" alt="" width="650" height="350" srcset="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Cregan-Nicholas-650.jpg 650w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Cregan-Nicholas-650-300x162.jpg 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px" /><p id="caption-attachment-64087" class="wp-caption-text">Nicholas Cregan</p></div>
<h3 class="x_MsoNormal">Global equities manager Fairlight Asset Management believes concerns about the potential impact of artificial intelligence are creating a growing disconnect between market valuations and business fundamentals across quality global small and mid-cap companies.</h3>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Speaking at an investor briefing late last week, Fairlight Portfolio Manager and Partner Nick Cregan said investors had become increasingly focused on potential AI-related disruption, despite many businesses in the quality SMID universe continuing to deliver strong earnings growth and resilient operating performance.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">&#8220;Markets have become highly focused on identifying potential AI winners and losers,&#8221; Mr Cregan said.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">&#8220;In the process, a number of high-quality small and mid-cap companies are being valued as though disruption is inevitable, despite continuing to produce strong operating results and maintain leading competitive positions.&#8221;</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Fairlight noted that the majority of its portfolio companies either met or exceeded expectations during recent reporting periods, with no portfolio company reporting so far this quarter downgrading full-year guidance.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">This strength is yet to be recognised by the market with many businesses across sectors such as property classifieds, consulting and information services trading near the bottom of their historical valuation ranges.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“This valuation compression reflects investor uncertainty rather than deterioration in underlying earnings performance,” said Mr Cregan.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">In addition, he said that 63 per cent of Fairlight’s portfolio companies currently have active share buyback programs in place – the highest level of buyback activity observed across the portfolio since inception.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Fairlight is also seeing increased insider buying activity and growing interest from private equity investors in companies trading at discounted valuations.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">&#8220;We continue to see a significant disconnect between market expectations and business fundamentals,&#8221; Mr Cregan said.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">&#8220;For long-term investors, that is creating attractive opportunities across a range of quality global small and mid-cap businesses.&#8221;</p>
]]></description>
                                            <content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_64087" style="width: 660px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-64087" class="size-full wp-image-64087" src="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Cregan-Nicholas-650.jpg" alt="" width="650" height="350" srcset="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Cregan-Nicholas-650.jpg 650w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Cregan-Nicholas-650-300x162.jpg 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px" /><p id="caption-attachment-64087" class="wp-caption-text">Nicholas Cregan</p></div>
<h3 class="x_MsoNormal">Global equities manager Fairlight Asset Management believes concerns about the potential impact of artificial intelligence are creating a growing disconnect between market valuations and business fundamentals across quality global small and mid-cap companies.</h3>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Speaking at an investor briefing late last week, Fairlight Portfolio Manager and Partner Nick Cregan said investors had become increasingly focused on potential AI-related disruption, despite many businesses in the quality SMID universe continuing to deliver strong earnings growth and resilient operating performance.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">&#8220;Markets have become highly focused on identifying potential AI winners and losers,&#8221; Mr Cregan said.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">&#8220;In the process, a number of high-quality small and mid-cap companies are being valued as though disruption is inevitable, despite continuing to produce strong operating results and maintain leading competitive positions.&#8221;</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Fairlight noted that the majority of its portfolio companies either met or exceeded expectations during recent reporting periods, with no portfolio company reporting so far this quarter downgrading full-year guidance.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">This strength is yet to be recognised by the market with many businesses across sectors such as property classifieds, consulting and information services trading near the bottom of their historical valuation ranges.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“This valuation compression reflects investor uncertainty rather than deterioration in underlying earnings performance,” said Mr Cregan.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">In addition, he said that 63 per cent of Fairlight’s portfolio companies currently have active share buyback programs in place – the highest level of buyback activity observed across the portfolio since inception.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Fairlight is also seeing increased insider buying activity and growing interest from private equity investors in companies trading at discounted valuations.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">&#8220;We continue to see a significant disconnect between market expectations and business fundamentals,&#8221; Mr Cregan said.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">&#8220;For long-term investors, that is creating attractive opportunities across a range of quality global small and mid-cap businesses.&#8221;</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2026/06/ai-disruption-fears-are-driving-a-disconnect-in-global-small-and-mid-caps/">AI disruption fears are driving a disconnect in global small and mid-caps</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au">AdviserVoice</a>.</p>
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                <title>Mag10 on the horizon, following SpaceX IPO</title>
                <link>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2026/06/mag10-on-the-horizon-following-spacex-ipo/</link>
                <comments>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2026/06/mag10-on-the-horizon-following-spacex-ipo/#respond</comments>
                <pubDate>Mon, 08 Jun 2026 21:25:34 +0000</pubDate>
                <dc:creator>
                                    </dc:creator>
                		<category><![CDATA[Investment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Hebner]]></category>
                <guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.adviservoice.com.au/?p=111813</guid>
                                    <description><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_92284" style="width: 660px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-92284" class="size-full wp-image-92284" src="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Hebner-Kevin-650.png" alt="" width="650" height="350" srcset="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Hebner-Kevin-650.png 650w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Hebner-Kevin-650-300x162.png 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px" /><p id="caption-attachment-92284" class="wp-caption-text">Kevin Hebner</p></div>
<h3 class="x_MsoNormal">Investors cannot afford to ignore artificial intelligence (AI), as the market capitalisation of the top global companies is set to leap to new highs &#8211; with upcoming IPOs from SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI expected to reshape stock market indices, according to Dr Kevin Hebner, managing director and global investment strategist at TD Epoch.</h3>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">SpaceX is expected to be the largest IPO, raising about US$75 billion. With two more mega IPOs expected to launch in the next six months, all three will enter the indices quickly and change the Mag7 to the Mag10.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“SpaceX is set to be the biggest IPO ever. The company will be raising somewhere in the neighbourhood of US$75 billion, with 30 per cent of funds raised coming from retail markets. It&#8217;s going to be massively oversubscribed.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“It is an exciting deal and if it does come out at a valuation around US$1.75 trillion, it will be the sixth or seventh largest global tech company immediately, sitting just below Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN),” he says.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">SpaceX is more than just rockets. “There are three components to SpaceX. There&#8217;s the rocket ‘launch’ with Starship Version 3. There&#8217;s the communication business, with Starlink satellites, which is growing very rapidly. And then there&#8217;s the AI business. That is what most of the value in the IPO is being attributed to.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“Much of the valuation is effectively a call option on space and all the future possibilities that come with that (orbital data centres, a base on the moon or even mars). It is this element of hype or speculation, that adds to the excitement of this IPO,” he says.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Later this year, Anthropic, valued at around US$965 billion, is expected to IPO and following suit will be OpenAI which is expected to be valued at roughly US$850 billion.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“With the addition of these three companies, we will no longer have the Mag7, we will have the Mag10. The market capitalisation of the current Mag7 with the inclusion of these three companies will amount to around US$25-$28 trillion. This is likely to exceed the market capitalisation of all global equities in the world, excluding the US,” says Hebner.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">The three companies will be quickly added to the indices, meaning institutional investors will be forced to buy it regardless of their concerns about valuations and volatility.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“Investors may not be interested in the ‘Mag10’ and AI and think it highlight speculative, but the reality is that the market cap for the upcoming Mag10 will be enormous.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“Given how critical it is to market valuations overall, investors will need to pay attention and know a lot about these companies and AI when investing in the market,” says Hebner.</p>
]]></description>
                                            <content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_92284" style="width: 660px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-92284" class="size-full wp-image-92284" src="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Hebner-Kevin-650.png" alt="" width="650" height="350" srcset="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Hebner-Kevin-650.png 650w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Hebner-Kevin-650-300x162.png 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px" /><p id="caption-attachment-92284" class="wp-caption-text">Kevin Hebner</p></div>
<h3 class="x_MsoNormal">Investors cannot afford to ignore artificial intelligence (AI), as the market capitalisation of the top global companies is set to leap to new highs &#8211; with upcoming IPOs from SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI expected to reshape stock market indices, according to Dr Kevin Hebner, managing director and global investment strategist at TD Epoch.</h3>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">SpaceX is expected to be the largest IPO, raising about US$75 billion. With two more mega IPOs expected to launch in the next six months, all three will enter the indices quickly and change the Mag7 to the Mag10.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“SpaceX is set to be the biggest IPO ever. The company will be raising somewhere in the neighbourhood of US$75 billion, with 30 per cent of funds raised coming from retail markets. It&#8217;s going to be massively oversubscribed.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“It is an exciting deal and if it does come out at a valuation around US$1.75 trillion, it will be the sixth or seventh largest global tech company immediately, sitting just below Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN),” he says.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">SpaceX is more than just rockets. “There are three components to SpaceX. There&#8217;s the rocket ‘launch’ with Starship Version 3. There&#8217;s the communication business, with Starlink satellites, which is growing very rapidly. And then there&#8217;s the AI business. That is what most of the value in the IPO is being attributed to.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“Much of the valuation is effectively a call option on space and all the future possibilities that come with that (orbital data centres, a base on the moon or even mars). It is this element of hype or speculation, that adds to the excitement of this IPO,” he says.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Later this year, Anthropic, valued at around US$965 billion, is expected to IPO and following suit will be OpenAI which is expected to be valued at roughly US$850 billion.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“With the addition of these three companies, we will no longer have the Mag7, we will have the Mag10. The market capitalisation of the current Mag7 with the inclusion of these three companies will amount to around US$25-$28 trillion. This is likely to exceed the market capitalisation of all global equities in the world, excluding the US,” says Hebner.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">The three companies will be quickly added to the indices, meaning institutional investors will be forced to buy it regardless of their concerns about valuations and volatility.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“Investors may not be interested in the ‘Mag10’ and AI and think it highlight speculative, but the reality is that the market cap for the upcoming Mag10 will be enormous.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“Given how critical it is to market valuations overall, investors will need to pay attention and know a lot about these companies and AI when investing in the market,” says Hebner.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2026/06/mag10-on-the-horizon-following-spacex-ipo/">Mag10 on the horizon, following SpaceX IPO</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au">AdviserVoice</a>.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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                <slash:comments>0</slash:comments>                            </item>
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                <title>Markets overreacting to AI fears in software sector</title>
                <link>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2026/06/markets-overreacting-to-ai-fears-in-software-sector/</link>
                <comments>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2026/06/markets-overreacting-to-ai-fears-in-software-sector/#respond</comments>
                <pubDate>Mon, 08 Jun 2026 21:10:00 +0000</pubDate>
                <dc:creator>
                                    </dc:creator>
                		<category><![CDATA[Investment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Claire Smith]]></category>
                <guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.adviservoice.com.au/?p=111811</guid>
                                    <description><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_94106" style="width: 660px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-94106" class="wp-image-94106 size-full" src="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Smith-Claire-650.jpg" alt="" width="650" height="350" srcset="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Smith-Claire-650.jpg 650w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Smith-Claire-650-300x162.jpg 300w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Smith-Claire-650-400x215.jpg 400w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px" /><p id="caption-attachment-94106" class="wp-caption-text">Claire Smith</p></div>
<h3 class="x_MsoNormal">Schroders says fears around artificial intelligence (AI) disrupting software businesses have been overblown, with private equity investors taking a far more selective and measured approach than public markets.</h3>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Claire Smith, head of investment directors, public and private markets at Schroders, said investors had adopted a “guilty until proven innocent” mentality toward software companies, despite many businesses remaining deeply embedded in their customers’ operations.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“We think the market has overreacted,” said Smith.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“There’s been a view that AI is killing software. AI is absolutely reshaping parts of the software market, but the idea that every software company is suddenly at risk simply isn’t how private investors are thinking about it.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“When you look underneath the surface, many of these businesses still have highly sticky customer bases, proprietary data and critical functionality.”</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Smith said Schroders had conducted a detailed “AI threat assessment matrix” across its software investments to determine which businesses faced genuine disruption risk and which were likely to remain resilient.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“We assessed whether AI could reduce the number of software seats being sold, or potentially make a platform redundant altogether,” she said.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“In our semi-liquid private equity fund, only around 2 per cent of the portfolio fell into what we classified as high risk.”</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Smith said software businesses servicing highly specialised industries, particularly those handling sensitive or operationally critical data, remained difficult to replace.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“You’re not going to vibe-code your way around payroll systems handling confidential patient data. Businesses still need reliability, compliance and security. AI is not eliminating that,” she said.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Private equity valuations had also been less volatile than listed markets because private investors were not caught up in the rapid repricing of large US technology stocks.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“At one point we were valuing our portfolio at a 40 per cent discount to listed markets,” Smith said.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“That discipline meant when listed markets sold off, we didn’t experience the same level of volatility.”</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">While AI disruption remains a risk for some companies, Smith said the technology was also creating significant investment opportunities.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“We have invested in AI-linked businesses including a data annotation company servicing major artificial intelligence groups including OpenAI, Meta and Nvidia. We prefer businesses that are benefiting from the growth in AI infrastructure, rather than trying to predict which individual AI applications will ultimately win,” said Smith.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Beyond technology, Smith said many of the strongest private equity opportunities continued to come from stable, cash-generative businesses operating in niche industries.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“Sometimes the best investments are the boring ones. We look for companies with recurring revenues, strong customer relationships and services that businesses simply cannot switch off during difficult economic periods,” she said.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Smith said a growing number of opportunities were also emerging from founder-led and family-owned businesses globally as ageing owners seek succession solutions.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“Private equity can provide the capital and expertise to help these businesses continue growing while preserving the legacy founders have built,” she added.</p>
]]></description>
                                            <content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_94106" style="width: 660px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-94106" class="wp-image-94106 size-full" src="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Smith-Claire-650.jpg" alt="" width="650" height="350" srcset="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Smith-Claire-650.jpg 650w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Smith-Claire-650-300x162.jpg 300w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Smith-Claire-650-400x215.jpg 400w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px" /><p id="caption-attachment-94106" class="wp-caption-text">Claire Smith</p></div>
<h3 class="x_MsoNormal">Schroders says fears around artificial intelligence (AI) disrupting software businesses have been overblown, with private equity investors taking a far more selective and measured approach than public markets.</h3>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Claire Smith, head of investment directors, public and private markets at Schroders, said investors had adopted a “guilty until proven innocent” mentality toward software companies, despite many businesses remaining deeply embedded in their customers’ operations.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“We think the market has overreacted,” said Smith.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“There’s been a view that AI is killing software. AI is absolutely reshaping parts of the software market, but the idea that every software company is suddenly at risk simply isn’t how private investors are thinking about it.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“When you look underneath the surface, many of these businesses still have highly sticky customer bases, proprietary data and critical functionality.”</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Smith said Schroders had conducted a detailed “AI threat assessment matrix” across its software investments to determine which businesses faced genuine disruption risk and which were likely to remain resilient.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“We assessed whether AI could reduce the number of software seats being sold, or potentially make a platform redundant altogether,” she said.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“In our semi-liquid private equity fund, only around 2 per cent of the portfolio fell into what we classified as high risk.”</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Smith said software businesses servicing highly specialised industries, particularly those handling sensitive or operationally critical data, remained difficult to replace.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“You’re not going to vibe-code your way around payroll systems handling confidential patient data. Businesses still need reliability, compliance and security. AI is not eliminating that,” she said.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Private equity valuations had also been less volatile than listed markets because private investors were not caught up in the rapid repricing of large US technology stocks.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“At one point we were valuing our portfolio at a 40 per cent discount to listed markets,” Smith said.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“That discipline meant when listed markets sold off, we didn’t experience the same level of volatility.”</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">While AI disruption remains a risk for some companies, Smith said the technology was also creating significant investment opportunities.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“We have invested in AI-linked businesses including a data annotation company servicing major artificial intelligence groups including OpenAI, Meta and Nvidia. We prefer businesses that are benefiting from the growth in AI infrastructure, rather than trying to predict which individual AI applications will ultimately win,” said Smith.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Beyond technology, Smith said many of the strongest private equity opportunities continued to come from stable, cash-generative businesses operating in niche industries.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“Sometimes the best investments are the boring ones. We look for companies with recurring revenues, strong customer relationships and services that businesses simply cannot switch off during difficult economic periods,” she said.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Smith said a growing number of opportunities were also emerging from founder-led and family-owned businesses globally as ageing owners seek succession solutions.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“Private equity can provide the capital and expertise to help these businesses continue growing while preserving the legacy founders have built,” she added.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2026/06/markets-overreacting-to-ai-fears-in-software-sector/">Markets overreacting to AI fears in software sector</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au">AdviserVoice</a>.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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                <slash:comments>0</slash:comments>                            </item>
                    <item>
                <title>The old map is outdated: Are investors stuck in the past on emerging markets?</title>
                <link>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2026/06/the-old-map-is-outdated-are-investors-stuck-in-the-past-on-emerging-markets/</link>
                <comments>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2026/06/the-old-map-is-outdated-are-investors-stuck-in-the-past-on-emerging-markets/#respond</comments>
                <pubDate>Mon, 08 Jun 2026 21:00:59 +0000</pubDate>
                <dc:creator>
                                    </dc:creator>
                		<category><![CDATA[Investment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eric Marais]]></category>
                <guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.adviservoice.com.au/?p=111827</guid>
                                    <description><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_111829" style="width: 660px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-111829" class="size-full wp-image-111829" src="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Marais-Eric-650.jpg" alt="" width="650" height="350" srcset="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Marais-Eric-650.jpg 650w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Marais-Eric-650-300x162.jpg 300w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Marais-Eric-650-400x215.jpg 400w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px" /><p id="caption-attachment-111829" class="wp-caption-text">Eric Marais</p></div>
<h3>The market’s view that emerging markets are still defined by the vulnerabilities of the past is increasingly at odds with the breadth of long-term value opportunities available across the asset class today, according to global contrarian investment manager Orbis Investments.</h3>
<p>Orbis says the valuation gap between developed and emerging market equities suggests investors may still be pricing the sector for a level of pessimism that may no longer reflect the realities of the opportunity set.</p>
<p>“Viewing emerging markets through a narrow set of outdated risk assumptions means investors are potentially missing the opportunities presented by a more selective, bottom-up view of the sector,” says Orbis’ Head of Clients &#8211; Australia, .</p>
<p>Orbis’ recent white paper ‘Emerging Markets: The Map is Not the Terrain’ shows EM equities trading at around 16 times earnings on a cyclically adjusted basis, versus about 38 times for U.S. equities. That equates to a discount of roughly 60% and close to the widest on record.</p>
<p>“The truth is the old map of emerging markets no longer reflects the evolution seen in some policy frameworks, market institutions and shareholder outcomes across important parts of the opportunity set. These are all changing in ways the market still underappreciates,” Mr Marais said.</p>
<p>Here are five key updates to old assumptions about investing in emerging markets:</p>
<h2>1. Emerging markets reward a more nuanced view of risk</h2>
<p>Orbis’ close study of emerging-market equities has observed the asset class to be no more volatile than their developed-market peers.</p>
<p>In fact, emerging market volatility has steadily declined relative to developed markets over the past decade, and in recent years EM equity volatility has moved much closer to that of developed market peers.</p>
<p>“In recent years, EM equity volatility has more closely resembled developed-market volatility than many investors might assume. Volatility is not, in itself, a reason to dismiss an asset class. The more important question is whether investors are being compensated for the risks they are taking. In emerging markets today, we think many risks are better understood &#8211; and more fully priced &#8211; than many investors assume,” Mr Marais said.</p>
<h2>2. Emerging markets can play a bigger role in diversification</h2>
<p>Orbis argues emerging markets are also a diversification opportunity. Since the inception of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index in 1988 to the end of 2025, EM equities have shown a correlation of 0.72 with developed markets and 0.66 with U.S. equities meaning they have historically moved differently enough from developed and U.S. markets to offer investors a meaningful source of diversification.</p>
<p>“Investors are more aware of concentration risk in U.S. equities, but in every bout of volatility capital still tends to rush back to the same crowded exposures,” Marais said. “That is one reason emerging markets remain underused as a source of differentiated equity exposure.”</p>
<h2>3. Selectivity matters more than passive exposure</h2>
<p>Orbis says passive exposure can be especially blunt in emerging markets: investors get some excellent businesses, but also many deserving laggards.</p>
<p>“Benchmark inclusion can bring flows, but it does not remove the need for judgement,” Marais said. “In emerging markets, the biggest opportunities are often found where reform, governance improvement and capital discipline are converging &#8211; and those are not always captured well by passive exposure.”</p>
<h2>4. Emerging-market currencies are more resilient than assumed</h2>
<p>After a decade of U.S. dollar strength, many investors still approach EM currency exposure with caution. Orbis argues this is becoming a less reliable shorthand: many EM currencies now sit below long-term measures of fair value, while external balances and monetary frameworks in some EMs have improved.</p>
<p>“The old assumption was that currency weakness in emerging markets automatically meant deeper fragility,” Marais said. “That is no longer a safe shortcut. In many cases, currencies now behave more as shock absorbers than crisis triggers.”</p>
<h2>5. Shareholder outcomes are an important measure of economic growth</h2>
<p>A key market assumption for many investors is that strong profit growth necessitates solid earnings-per-share growth. But this translation is not always straightforward in emerging markets, as evidenced by the Chinese sharemarket. Over the 20 years to the end of 2025, listed Chinese companies grew net profits by about 15% per annum, but earnings per share grew by only about 5% per annum.</p>
<p>“For equity investors, growth only matters if shareholders actually receive it,” Marais said. “That is why governance, minority-shareholder protections and capital allocation are not side issues in emerging markets but are completely central to the investment case.”</p>
<h2>EM trade: more nuanced than investors assume</h2>
<p>Orbis says emerging markets are often still viewed as a single risk trade, rather than as a broad and increasingly differentiated opportunity set. Across parts of the emerging markets universe, policy frameworks are stronger, market institutions are more developed, and the gap between high-quality and low-quality opportunities has widened.</p>
<p>Orbis’ philosophy of investing in emerging markets is to focus on buying quality businesses at a meaningful discount to true long-term value, and patiently holding those positions for the long term, or until the market recognises that value.</p>
<p>“The investment terrain in emerging markets is a fundamentally different story now than it has been in the past,” Marais said. “Investors with a differentiated investment approach will be better placed to make the best of the mispricing opportunities that emerge. We believe those opportunities are among some of the most attractive long-term opportunities.</p>
]]></description>
                                            <content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_111829" style="width: 660px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-111829" class="size-full wp-image-111829" src="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Marais-Eric-650.jpg" alt="" width="650" height="350" srcset="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Marais-Eric-650.jpg 650w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Marais-Eric-650-300x162.jpg 300w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Marais-Eric-650-400x215.jpg 400w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px" /><p id="caption-attachment-111829" class="wp-caption-text">Eric Marais</p></div>
<h3>The market’s view that emerging markets are still defined by the vulnerabilities of the past is increasingly at odds with the breadth of long-term value opportunities available across the asset class today, according to global contrarian investment manager Orbis Investments.</h3>
<p>Orbis says the valuation gap between developed and emerging market equities suggests investors may still be pricing the sector for a level of pessimism that may no longer reflect the realities of the opportunity set.</p>
<p>“Viewing emerging markets through a narrow set of outdated risk assumptions means investors are potentially missing the opportunities presented by a more selective, bottom-up view of the sector,” says Orbis’ Head of Clients &#8211; Australia, .</p>
<p>Orbis’ recent white paper ‘Emerging Markets: The Map is Not the Terrain’ shows EM equities trading at around 16 times earnings on a cyclically adjusted basis, versus about 38 times for U.S. equities. That equates to a discount of roughly 60% and close to the widest on record.</p>
<p>“The truth is the old map of emerging markets no longer reflects the evolution seen in some policy frameworks, market institutions and shareholder outcomes across important parts of the opportunity set. These are all changing in ways the market still underappreciates,” Mr Marais said.</p>
<p>Here are five key updates to old assumptions about investing in emerging markets:</p>
<h2>1. Emerging markets reward a more nuanced view of risk</h2>
<p>Orbis’ close study of emerging-market equities has observed the asset class to be no more volatile than their developed-market peers.</p>
<p>In fact, emerging market volatility has steadily declined relative to developed markets over the past decade, and in recent years EM equity volatility has moved much closer to that of developed market peers.</p>
<p>“In recent years, EM equity volatility has more closely resembled developed-market volatility than many investors might assume. Volatility is not, in itself, a reason to dismiss an asset class. The more important question is whether investors are being compensated for the risks they are taking. In emerging markets today, we think many risks are better understood &#8211; and more fully priced &#8211; than many investors assume,” Mr Marais said.</p>
<h2>2. Emerging markets can play a bigger role in diversification</h2>
<p>Orbis argues emerging markets are also a diversification opportunity. Since the inception of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index in 1988 to the end of 2025, EM equities have shown a correlation of 0.72 with developed markets and 0.66 with U.S. equities meaning they have historically moved differently enough from developed and U.S. markets to offer investors a meaningful source of diversification.</p>
<p>“Investors are more aware of concentration risk in U.S. equities, but in every bout of volatility capital still tends to rush back to the same crowded exposures,” Marais said. “That is one reason emerging markets remain underused as a source of differentiated equity exposure.”</p>
<h2>3. Selectivity matters more than passive exposure</h2>
<p>Orbis says passive exposure can be especially blunt in emerging markets: investors get some excellent businesses, but also many deserving laggards.</p>
<p>“Benchmark inclusion can bring flows, but it does not remove the need for judgement,” Marais said. “In emerging markets, the biggest opportunities are often found where reform, governance improvement and capital discipline are converging &#8211; and those are not always captured well by passive exposure.”</p>
<h2>4. Emerging-market currencies are more resilient than assumed</h2>
<p>After a decade of U.S. dollar strength, many investors still approach EM currency exposure with caution. Orbis argues this is becoming a less reliable shorthand: many EM currencies now sit below long-term measures of fair value, while external balances and monetary frameworks in some EMs have improved.</p>
<p>“The old assumption was that currency weakness in emerging markets automatically meant deeper fragility,” Marais said. “That is no longer a safe shortcut. In many cases, currencies now behave more as shock absorbers than crisis triggers.”</p>
<h2>5. Shareholder outcomes are an important measure of economic growth</h2>
<p>A key market assumption for many investors is that strong profit growth necessitates solid earnings-per-share growth. But this translation is not always straightforward in emerging markets, as evidenced by the Chinese sharemarket. Over the 20 years to the end of 2025, listed Chinese companies grew net profits by about 15% per annum, but earnings per share grew by only about 5% per annum.</p>
<p>“For equity investors, growth only matters if shareholders actually receive it,” Marais said. “That is why governance, minority-shareholder protections and capital allocation are not side issues in emerging markets but are completely central to the investment case.”</p>
<h2>EM trade: more nuanced than investors assume</h2>
<p>Orbis says emerging markets are often still viewed as a single risk trade, rather than as a broad and increasingly differentiated opportunity set. Across parts of the emerging markets universe, policy frameworks are stronger, market institutions are more developed, and the gap between high-quality and low-quality opportunities has widened.</p>
<p>Orbis’ philosophy of investing in emerging markets is to focus on buying quality businesses at a meaningful discount to true long-term value, and patiently holding those positions for the long term, or until the market recognises that value.</p>
<p>“The investment terrain in emerging markets is a fundamentally different story now than it has been in the past,” Marais said. “Investors with a differentiated investment approach will be better placed to make the best of the mispricing opportunities that emerge. We believe those opportunities are among some of the most attractive long-term opportunities.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2026/06/the-old-map-is-outdated-are-investors-stuck-in-the-past-on-emerging-markets/">The old map is outdated: Are investors stuck in the past on emerging markets?</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au">AdviserVoice</a>.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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                <title>Questionable optics for Fed Chair Warsh</title>
                <link>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2026/06/questionable-optics-for-fed-chair-warsh/</link>
                <comments>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2026/06/questionable-optics-for-fed-chair-warsh/#respond</comments>
                <pubDate>Thu, 04 Jun 2026 21:05:36 +0000</pubDate>
                <dc:creator>
                                    </dc:creator>
                		<category><![CDATA[Investment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Deborah Cunningham]]></category>
                <guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.adviservoice.com.au/?p=111791</guid>
                                    <description><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_111792" style="width: 660px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-111792" class="wp-image-111792 size-full" src="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/cunningham-deborah-650.jpg" alt="" width="650" height="350" srcset="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/cunningham-deborah-650.jpg 650w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/cunningham-deborah-650-300x162.jpg 300w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/cunningham-deborah-650-400x215.jpg 400w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px" /><p id="caption-attachment-111792" class="wp-caption-text">Deborah Cunningham</p></div>
<h3 class="x_MsoNormal">New Chair Kevin Warsh’s ability to guide the Federal Reserve will depend upon the market’s belief he is not beholden to President Trump. Taking the oath in a White House ceremony did him no favors. It was the first time since President Reagan swore in Alan Greenspan that the ceremony took place there instead of at the central bank’s headquarters on the National Mall. Yes, Trump praised Warsh and said he should be “totally independent.” But context is everything.</h3>
<div>The President’s comments might reflect his realization that it would be counterproductive to pressure Warsh immediately. He will not be able to deliver — or even want to deliver — a rate cut in the June policy meeting in the face of rising inflation, geopolitical uncertainty and hawkish dissenters, so why spend the political capital. Also, Trump needs to show confidence in Warsh as he was not a frontrunner for the post (Christopher Waller, then Rick Rieder, then Michelle Bowman, then Kevin Hassett). So, it seems he gave Warsh a hall pass. But just like the ones you got in high school, it will eventually expire. Then Warsh might not want to check social media.</div>
<div></div>
<div>The probability of a shift in the fed funds target range, currently 3.50-3.75%, at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting June 16-17 is all but zero, But what of the rest of this year? While rising inflation has not completely stifled consumer spending, concern is rising. It probably will continue to grow but at a slower pace after the Iran conflict cools. The last (March) Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) still indicated one 25 basis-point cut this year; June’s will almost certainly forecast no change. It is possible the dot plot will include nods by some policymakers to a hike.</div>
<h2>Speaking of the dot plot</h2>
<div>Chair Warsh has been openly critical of forward guidance. His argument is that it boxes in the Fed, hampering its ability to make effective monetary policy. He doubled down in his Senate confirmation hearing: &#8220;The Fed tells the whole world what their dots are going to be, what their forecasts are going to be.&#8221; He also claimed that policymakers are human, so “They hold on to those forecasts longer than they should.&#8221; Not sure we agree, especially as their choices are anonymous.</div>
<div></div>
<div>Here’s the thing — Warsh does not have as much power as a chair of a company, foundation or other types of boards. Formally altering or eliminating structural reports, such as the SEP, requires a majority FOMC vote. He will have to take his time, and the temperature of the room, before pushing for changes. If Warsh plays hard ball, he could downplay the forecasts in his press conferences. But if he cannot win over his colleagues on procedural issues, the more significant items on his agenda, such as lowering the Fed’s balance sheet, will be difficult.</div>
<h2><strong>Holding steady</strong></h2>
<div>May was a solid month for US money market funds, up more than $100 billion assets under management for the month, using iMoneyNet numbers. With the Fed on hold and political turmoil the base case, it is possible they will hit new highs this summer. Another sign of industry health comes in the overnight market. The Fed reverse repo facility continues to have minimal usage, both in terms of money and counterparties. The less that liquidity products have to tap the government, the better the system is working.</div>
<div></div>
<div><em><strong>By Deborah Cunningham, CFA, Chief Investment Officer, Global Liquidity Markets, Senior Portfolio Manager, Executive Vice President</strong></em></div>
]]></description>
                                            <content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_111792" style="width: 660px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-111792" class="wp-image-111792 size-full" src="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/cunningham-deborah-650.jpg" alt="" width="650" height="350" srcset="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/cunningham-deborah-650.jpg 650w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/cunningham-deborah-650-300x162.jpg 300w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/cunningham-deborah-650-400x215.jpg 400w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px" /><p id="caption-attachment-111792" class="wp-caption-text">Deborah Cunningham</p></div>
<h3 class="x_MsoNormal">New Chair Kevin Warsh’s ability to guide the Federal Reserve will depend upon the market’s belief he is not beholden to President Trump. Taking the oath in a White House ceremony did him no favors. It was the first time since President Reagan swore in Alan Greenspan that the ceremony took place there instead of at the central bank’s headquarters on the National Mall. Yes, Trump praised Warsh and said he should be “totally independent.” But context is everything.</h3>
<div>The President’s comments might reflect his realization that it would be counterproductive to pressure Warsh immediately. He will not be able to deliver — or even want to deliver — a rate cut in the June policy meeting in the face of rising inflation, geopolitical uncertainty and hawkish dissenters, so why spend the political capital. Also, Trump needs to show confidence in Warsh as he was not a frontrunner for the post (Christopher Waller, then Rick Rieder, then Michelle Bowman, then Kevin Hassett). So, it seems he gave Warsh a hall pass. But just like the ones you got in high school, it will eventually expire. Then Warsh might not want to check social media.</div>
<div></div>
<div>The probability of a shift in the fed funds target range, currently 3.50-3.75%, at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting June 16-17 is all but zero, But what of the rest of this year? While rising inflation has not completely stifled consumer spending, concern is rising. It probably will continue to grow but at a slower pace after the Iran conflict cools. The last (March) Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) still indicated one 25 basis-point cut this year; June’s will almost certainly forecast no change. It is possible the dot plot will include nods by some policymakers to a hike.</div>
<h2>Speaking of the dot plot</h2>
<div>Chair Warsh has been openly critical of forward guidance. His argument is that it boxes in the Fed, hampering its ability to make effective monetary policy. He doubled down in his Senate confirmation hearing: &#8220;The Fed tells the whole world what their dots are going to be, what their forecasts are going to be.&#8221; He also claimed that policymakers are human, so “They hold on to those forecasts longer than they should.&#8221; Not sure we agree, especially as their choices are anonymous.</div>
<div></div>
<div>Here’s the thing — Warsh does not have as much power as a chair of a company, foundation or other types of boards. Formally altering or eliminating structural reports, such as the SEP, requires a majority FOMC vote. He will have to take his time, and the temperature of the room, before pushing for changes. If Warsh plays hard ball, he could downplay the forecasts in his press conferences. But if he cannot win over his colleagues on procedural issues, the more significant items on his agenda, such as lowering the Fed’s balance sheet, will be difficult.</div>
<h2><strong>Holding steady</strong></h2>
<div>May was a solid month for US money market funds, up more than $100 billion assets under management for the month, using iMoneyNet numbers. With the Fed on hold and political turmoil the base case, it is possible they will hit new highs this summer. Another sign of industry health comes in the overnight market. The Fed reverse repo facility continues to have minimal usage, both in terms of money and counterparties. The less that liquidity products have to tap the government, the better the system is working.</div>
<div></div>
<div><em><strong>By Deborah Cunningham, CFA, Chief Investment Officer, Global Liquidity Markets, Senior Portfolio Manager, Executive Vice President</strong></em></div>
<p>The post <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2026/06/questionable-optics-for-fed-chair-warsh/">Questionable optics for Fed Chair Warsh</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au">AdviserVoice</a>.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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                <slash:comments>0</slash:comments>                            </item>
                    <item>
                <title>Mega IPOs and institutional portfolio risk: managing concentration before listings</title>
                <link>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2026/06/mega-ipos-and-institutional-portfolio-risk-managing-concentration-before-listings/</link>
                <comments>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2026/06/mega-ipos-and-institutional-portfolio-risk-managing-concentration-before-listings/#respond</comments>
                <pubDate>Wed, 03 Jun 2026 21:20:21 +0000</pubDate>
                <dc:creator>
                                    </dc:creator>
                		<category><![CDATA[Investment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Christina Shockley]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dylan Kelly]]></category>
                <guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.adviservoice.com.au/?p=111787</guid>
                                    <description><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_78958" style="width: 660px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-78958" class="size-full wp-image-78958" src="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/cash-650.png" alt="" width="650" height="350" srcset="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/cash-650.png 650w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/cash-650-300x162.png 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px" /><p id="caption-attachment-78958" class="wp-caption-text">Coordinating hedging and execution early may help reduce slippage, preserve liquidity, and maintain portfolio stability during volatile post-listing periods.</p></div>
<h2 aria-hidden="true">Key takeaways</h2>
<ul>
<li>Mega IPOs could quickly turn private market gains into concentrated public equity exposure.</li>
<li>Passive index inclusion may increase exposure institutional investors already hold privately.</li>
<li>Overlay strategies can help institutional allocators protect gains while preserving flexibility.</li>
<li>Coordinated execution planning may improve portfolio rebalancing during IPO transitions.</li>
</ul>
<h2 class="x_MsoNoSpacing">When private market wins become public market challenges</h2>
<p>The next IPO wave may create a different kind of portfolio challenge for institutions already holding private stakes in companies like SpaceX and OpenAI. Years of gains built inside venture funds, growth mandates, and GP structures could quickly become some of the largest public equity positions in institutional portfolios once those companies begin trading publicly.</p>
<p>The nature of private market holdings often masked concentration risk, with valuations updating infrequently, positions embedded inside broader vehicles, and liquidity remaining limited. A public listing changes that dynamic quickly. A successful private markets investment can quickly become a much harder public markets position to manage.</p>
<p>Now, with the IPO pipeline beginning to reopen around some of the largest private market companies, institutions may face a more complicated transition than many expected. The challenge is no longer simply participating in the upside. It is managing what happens after those private gains enter public markets.</p>
<h2 class="x_MsoNoSpacing">Mega deals driving the next wave of large-scale IPO activity</h2>
<p class="x_MsoNoSpacing" aria-hidden="true">Current attention is increasingly focused on the big mega deals, defined as venture capital financings of $100 million or more. Those transactions represented roughly 70% of U.S. VC deal value in 2025, up from 56% the year before.</p>
<div>
<p>The scale of some anticipated listings could make the next IPO wave materially different from prior cycles. Many institutions spent years deliberately building exposure to companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic through private markets. As those companies move closer to public listings, their sizes could quickly make them meaningful index exposures.</p>
<p>SpaceX alone has reportedly discussed valuations approaching $2 trillion, potentially making it the largest IPO in history<sup>[1]</sup>. For context, the Nasdaq<sup>[2]</sup>. today is roughly a $30 trillion market, meaning even a small number of listings at these valuations could create new challenges around liquidity, rebalancing, and protecting years of accumulated private market gains.</p>
<h2>The post-IPO reality</h2>
<p>After the opening bell and early excitement fade, the real transition begins. Early investors often start realising gains soon after listings, increasing the supply of shares entering the market and creating volatility tied more to liquidity and positioning than the company’s long-term outlook. That dynamic could become even more pronounced in the next IPO wave, as institutions decide how to protect years of private market gains and how those companies fit within public portfolios once trading begins.</p>
<p>Our trading desk data shows how uneven that period can become. Only 28% of stocks traded at or above their distribution price on the first trading day after distribution, while nearly 48% had returned to distribution price by day 30. That gap can create difficult tradeoffs around timing, liquidity, and rebalancing for institutions managing large private stakes.</p>
<p><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-111788" src="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/russell-1.jpg" alt="" width="820" height="413" srcset="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/russell-1.jpg 820w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/russell-1-300x151.jpg 300w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/russell-1-768x387.jpg 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /></p>
</div>
<p>Historical examples such as Uber and Pinterest show how post-IPO volatility can persist long after the opening bell. Uber’s one-month implied volatility started around 60 before rising sharply around early earnings announcements and the November 2019 lock-up expiration. Pinterest experienced similar volatility spikes around early earnings periods as investors continued adjusting positions after the IPO.</p>
<h2>Positioning portfolios ahead of the IPO wave</h2>
<p>What to do after the IPO usually comes down to two paths: reduce exposure or maintain it while avoiding unintended concentration.</p>
<p>Volatility, selling pressure, and delayed liquidity can leave portfolios exposed to meaningful short-term swings just as concentration and implementation risks become more visible. For investors holding private stakes through venture funds or GP structures, lock-up restrictions and distribution timing can further delay when shares are actually available to sell, complicating rebalancing decisions after public trading begins.</p>
<p>That distinction is increasingly shaping how allocators approach hedging, customisation, rebalancing, and execution planning ahead of a listing.</p>
<p>Several themes are beginning to shape how institutions manage these transitions:</p>
<h3>1. Use overlays to create flexibility</h3>
<p>Investors may still believe strongly in the company’s long-term outlook. The challenge is managing how that exposure fits within the broader portfolio after the IPO, particularly when delayed liquidity and selling constraints limit how quickly positions can be rebalanced.</p>
<p>In those situations, options-based overlays can help protect accumulated gains while creating more flexibility around timing and rebalancing decisions. Structured approaches such as costless collars, which exchange some future upside participation for downside protection without an upfront premium payment, may help reduce exposure risk while avoiding rushed selling during volatile post-listing periods.</p>
<p>Alternatively, some institutions are not seeking to hedge an overweight position, but rather to gain exposure to an IPO ahead of its inclusion in benchmark indices and related passive investment vehicles. Call options can provide a capital-efficient way to manage the risk of being underweight during this transition period.</p>
<h3>2. Know where concentration is hiding and prepare for passive exposures</h3>
<p>Positions that once sat inside diversified private market structures can quickly emerge as outsised public equity exposures. Investors are increasingly evaluating how IPO-related holdings could affect portfolio exposures, benchmark alignment, and overall risk once public trading begins.</p>
<p>What began as a high-conviction private markets investment can quickly become a large passive public market exposure once those companies enter major indexes. Institutions already holding private stakes in potential mega IPOs may not want indexed mandates adding even more exposure, but they may not necessarily want to exit the position either.</p>
<p>Completion portfolios, along with customisation and exclusions, can help manage concentration more efficiently across the broader portfolio while still maintaining exposure. That flexibility may be particularly relevant across the endowment and foundation space, where implementation decisions often align closely with broader mission-driven priorities. For example, an institutional investor may have reduced its passive equity exposure and replaced it with an equity completion mandate designed to more efficiently manage aggregate factor exposures across the broader equity portfolio. In that context, the investor could choose to exclude adding SpaceX exposure if it was already economically overweight the company through shares received in a private equity transaction that had not yet become liquid.</p>
<h3>3. Coordinate execution before rebalancing begins</h3>
<p>Managing downside exposure is only part of the challenge. Large, concentrated positions still need to be unwound efficiently once investors decide to rebalance. IPO transitions can create liquidity pressures and temporary selling imbalances as multiple early investors attempt to reduce exposure simultaneously.</p>
<p>Poor execution can erode gains quickly once large positions begin unwinding. Coordinating hedging and execution early may help reduce slippage, preserve liquidity, and maintain portfolio stability during volatile post-listing periods. Agency trading models, where trades are executed on behalf of clients without taking principal positions, may also help align execution more closely with investor objectives during complex portfolio transitions.</p>
<h2>Investor Implications</h2>
<p>Institutions already holding private stakes in potential mega IPOs may need to treat the transition to public markets as an active portfolio event rather than a simple liquidity milestone. The challenge is not only whether to reduce exposure, but also how to manage timing, benchmark impact, and implementation constraints once public trading begins.</p>
<p>That may require decisions well before the IPO itself. Institutions that evaluate concentration, liquidity needs, hedging approaches, and benchmark exposure earlier may have greater flexibility once shares begin trading publicly and passive flows accelerate.</p>
<p><em><strong>By Christina Shockley, Director, Customised Portfolio Solutions and Dylan Kelly, Senior Portfolio Manager, Overlay Solutions </strong></em></p>
<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<h6><strong>Notes:</strong><br />
[1] <a href="https://email.streem.com.au/c/eJxc0b9y4jocxfGnsTsxkizLVuHCXAIkF8PChpjQMLL0M2gxiEgyf_L0O8mk2vYz8z3N0QWTotUxFCTLMUsynpL4UCQpEyJJaKayNFeaacK50kBzhVMBTMam4JK0Kc1ZkhMpdoTopMmpyBhEDHuj4Wg-0EmaDpxHbaayVolMozZlwQ2-PO6KQwgXHyVlRMcRHbfmLM8KBg95sHag7Cmi45N0Rwg-omPpglEdRHTsL1LBHbWmA4_MxaKLs_4CKvQe2bYFZ857JNEF4IjMOVhkgkc_4x5RnDLMSS4Gh3DqomS875Wy_TmAi5IRiSjf9wp2Dlpw7tvkdIXVtOKzh3jozfxzW9-9rFO63cxxU7_1elr171SE2e3feOfNPkpG5bIsyyFc8fz_sxfs-HLiD7z-aMo_fj3pXj-cW0uyW3y-z-pyf8xn9qm7TTf2uZITvpplCbjf5Q3_N6rI2205lNXk9VhTXTmcNdPFthYvh-b2VK9sPRKjxWc__9X7CcKz-3BuQh5sa5cKlfuuI_0KwrIytsrb-yKsn--vYrWv3HB7GXV-J-SuFxuMeHwCbSRy0IH0gIwuvmH3A1FSMso4jl0B2gTrIoalvhoP7mqNgq_rBrKPfXAAp688I42UvMWooSAR00qhhuQcpQlLU8CKpyDja0H_BgAA__8R59Yx">SpaceX alone has reportedly discussed valuations approaching $2 trillion, potentially making it the largest IPO in history. </a><br />
[2] <a href="https://email.streem.com.au/c/eJwszDuO7CAQQNHVQIbFp_gFBJ30NloFFGr07Odp8NjbH3k06ZHurQkwtsopKR8kGO-s4u9kjSGUAZxuDrIMzkidKZeiKRrVIu_JoWpWBzBBYXwpVU0OOnogBnL2Sv_6R2zYVxpTNF98K9FX0SwcY7mdr-l9HF-TmQfTT6af13Ut_3FW_Cxl35h-8o1qRzFoJZwkek2_8PoDZh6gwUk-EtV-7IOBxHr2SePce6H7suA3n8cg2u7cq4zomhRZEwqopYisghPWgLUki7OE_Ez6JwAA___ALVVI">Nasdaq </a></h6>
]]></description>
                                            <content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_78958" style="width: 660px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-78958" class="size-full wp-image-78958" src="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/cash-650.png" alt="" width="650" height="350" srcset="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/cash-650.png 650w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/cash-650-300x162.png 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px" /><p id="caption-attachment-78958" class="wp-caption-text">Coordinating hedging and execution early may help reduce slippage, preserve liquidity, and maintain portfolio stability during volatile post-listing periods.</p></div>
<h2 aria-hidden="true">Key takeaways</h2>
<ul>
<li>Mega IPOs could quickly turn private market gains into concentrated public equity exposure.</li>
<li>Passive index inclusion may increase exposure institutional investors already hold privately.</li>
<li>Overlay strategies can help institutional allocators protect gains while preserving flexibility.</li>
<li>Coordinated execution planning may improve portfolio rebalancing during IPO transitions.</li>
</ul>
<h2 class="x_MsoNoSpacing">When private market wins become public market challenges</h2>
<p>The next IPO wave may create a different kind of portfolio challenge for institutions already holding private stakes in companies like SpaceX and OpenAI. Years of gains built inside venture funds, growth mandates, and GP structures could quickly become some of the largest public equity positions in institutional portfolios once those companies begin trading publicly.</p>
<p>The nature of private market holdings often masked concentration risk, with valuations updating infrequently, positions embedded inside broader vehicles, and liquidity remaining limited. A public listing changes that dynamic quickly. A successful private markets investment can quickly become a much harder public markets position to manage.</p>
<p>Now, with the IPO pipeline beginning to reopen around some of the largest private market companies, institutions may face a more complicated transition than many expected. The challenge is no longer simply participating in the upside. It is managing what happens after those private gains enter public markets.</p>
<h2 class="x_MsoNoSpacing">Mega deals driving the next wave of large-scale IPO activity</h2>
<p class="x_MsoNoSpacing" aria-hidden="true">Current attention is increasingly focused on the big mega deals, defined as venture capital financings of $100 million or more. Those transactions represented roughly 70% of U.S. VC deal value in 2025, up from 56% the year before.</p>
<div>
<p>The scale of some anticipated listings could make the next IPO wave materially different from prior cycles. Many institutions spent years deliberately building exposure to companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic through private markets. As those companies move closer to public listings, their sizes could quickly make them meaningful index exposures.</p>
<p>SpaceX alone has reportedly discussed valuations approaching $2 trillion, potentially making it the largest IPO in history<sup>[1]</sup>. For context, the Nasdaq<sup>[2]</sup>. today is roughly a $30 trillion market, meaning even a small number of listings at these valuations could create new challenges around liquidity, rebalancing, and protecting years of accumulated private market gains.</p>
<h2>The post-IPO reality</h2>
<p>After the opening bell and early excitement fade, the real transition begins. Early investors often start realising gains soon after listings, increasing the supply of shares entering the market and creating volatility tied more to liquidity and positioning than the company’s long-term outlook. That dynamic could become even more pronounced in the next IPO wave, as institutions decide how to protect years of private market gains and how those companies fit within public portfolios once trading begins.</p>
<p>Our trading desk data shows how uneven that period can become. Only 28% of stocks traded at or above their distribution price on the first trading day after distribution, while nearly 48% had returned to distribution price by day 30. That gap can create difficult tradeoffs around timing, liquidity, and rebalancing for institutions managing large private stakes.</p>
<p><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-111788" src="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/russell-1.jpg" alt="" width="820" height="413" srcset="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/russell-1.jpg 820w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/russell-1-300x151.jpg 300w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/russell-1-768x387.jpg 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /></p>
</div>
<p>Historical examples such as Uber and Pinterest show how post-IPO volatility can persist long after the opening bell. Uber’s one-month implied volatility started around 60 before rising sharply around early earnings announcements and the November 2019 lock-up expiration. Pinterest experienced similar volatility spikes around early earnings periods as investors continued adjusting positions after the IPO.</p>
<h2>Positioning portfolios ahead of the IPO wave</h2>
<p>What to do after the IPO usually comes down to two paths: reduce exposure or maintain it while avoiding unintended concentration.</p>
<p>Volatility, selling pressure, and delayed liquidity can leave portfolios exposed to meaningful short-term swings just as concentration and implementation risks become more visible. For investors holding private stakes through venture funds or GP structures, lock-up restrictions and distribution timing can further delay when shares are actually available to sell, complicating rebalancing decisions after public trading begins.</p>
<p>That distinction is increasingly shaping how allocators approach hedging, customisation, rebalancing, and execution planning ahead of a listing.</p>
<p>Several themes are beginning to shape how institutions manage these transitions:</p>
<h3>1. Use overlays to create flexibility</h3>
<p>Investors may still believe strongly in the company’s long-term outlook. The challenge is managing how that exposure fits within the broader portfolio after the IPO, particularly when delayed liquidity and selling constraints limit how quickly positions can be rebalanced.</p>
<p>In those situations, options-based overlays can help protect accumulated gains while creating more flexibility around timing and rebalancing decisions. Structured approaches such as costless collars, which exchange some future upside participation for downside protection without an upfront premium payment, may help reduce exposure risk while avoiding rushed selling during volatile post-listing periods.</p>
<p>Alternatively, some institutions are not seeking to hedge an overweight position, but rather to gain exposure to an IPO ahead of its inclusion in benchmark indices and related passive investment vehicles. Call options can provide a capital-efficient way to manage the risk of being underweight during this transition period.</p>
<h3>2. Know where concentration is hiding and prepare for passive exposures</h3>
<p>Positions that once sat inside diversified private market structures can quickly emerge as outsised public equity exposures. Investors are increasingly evaluating how IPO-related holdings could affect portfolio exposures, benchmark alignment, and overall risk once public trading begins.</p>
<p>What began as a high-conviction private markets investment can quickly become a large passive public market exposure once those companies enter major indexes. Institutions already holding private stakes in potential mega IPOs may not want indexed mandates adding even more exposure, but they may not necessarily want to exit the position either.</p>
<p>Completion portfolios, along with customisation and exclusions, can help manage concentration more efficiently across the broader portfolio while still maintaining exposure. That flexibility may be particularly relevant across the endowment and foundation space, where implementation decisions often align closely with broader mission-driven priorities. For example, an institutional investor may have reduced its passive equity exposure and replaced it with an equity completion mandate designed to more efficiently manage aggregate factor exposures across the broader equity portfolio. In that context, the investor could choose to exclude adding SpaceX exposure if it was already economically overweight the company through shares received in a private equity transaction that had not yet become liquid.</p>
<h3>3. Coordinate execution before rebalancing begins</h3>
<p>Managing downside exposure is only part of the challenge. Large, concentrated positions still need to be unwound efficiently once investors decide to rebalance. IPO transitions can create liquidity pressures and temporary selling imbalances as multiple early investors attempt to reduce exposure simultaneously.</p>
<p>Poor execution can erode gains quickly once large positions begin unwinding. Coordinating hedging and execution early may help reduce slippage, preserve liquidity, and maintain portfolio stability during volatile post-listing periods. Agency trading models, where trades are executed on behalf of clients without taking principal positions, may also help align execution more closely with investor objectives during complex portfolio transitions.</p>
<h2>Investor Implications</h2>
<p>Institutions already holding private stakes in potential mega IPOs may need to treat the transition to public markets as an active portfolio event rather than a simple liquidity milestone. The challenge is not only whether to reduce exposure, but also how to manage timing, benchmark impact, and implementation constraints once public trading begins.</p>
<p>That may require decisions well before the IPO itself. Institutions that evaluate concentration, liquidity needs, hedging approaches, and benchmark exposure earlier may have greater flexibility once shares begin trading publicly and passive flows accelerate.</p>
<p><em><strong>By Christina Shockley, Director, Customised Portfolio Solutions and Dylan Kelly, Senior Portfolio Manager, Overlay Solutions </strong></em></p>
<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<h6><strong>Notes:</strong><br />
[1] <a href="https://email.streem.com.au/c/eJxc0b9y4jocxfGnsTsxkizLVuHCXAIkF8PChpjQMLL0M2gxiEgyf_L0O8mk2vYz8z3N0QWTotUxFCTLMUsynpL4UCQpEyJJaKayNFeaacK50kBzhVMBTMam4JK0Kc1ZkhMpdoTopMmpyBhEDHuj4Wg-0EmaDpxHbaayVolMozZlwQ2-PO6KQwgXHyVlRMcRHbfmLM8KBg95sHag7Cmi45N0Rwg-omPpglEdRHTsL1LBHbWmA4_MxaKLs_4CKvQe2bYFZ857JNEF4IjMOVhkgkc_4x5RnDLMSS4Gh3DqomS875Wy_TmAi5IRiSjf9wp2Dlpw7tvkdIXVtOKzh3jozfxzW9-9rFO63cxxU7_1elr171SE2e3feOfNPkpG5bIsyyFc8fz_sxfs-HLiD7z-aMo_fj3pXj-cW0uyW3y-z-pyf8xn9qm7TTf2uZITvpplCbjf5Q3_N6rI2205lNXk9VhTXTmcNdPFthYvh-b2VK9sPRKjxWc__9X7CcKz-3BuQh5sa5cKlfuuI_0KwrIytsrb-yKsn--vYrWv3HB7GXV-J-SuFxuMeHwCbSRy0IH0gIwuvmH3A1FSMso4jl0B2gTrIoalvhoP7mqNgq_rBrKPfXAAp688I42UvMWooSAR00qhhuQcpQlLU8CKpyDja0H_BgAA__8R59Yx">SpaceX alone has reportedly discussed valuations approaching $2 trillion, potentially making it the largest IPO in history. </a><br />
[2] <a href="https://email.streem.com.au/c/eJwszDuO7CAQQNHVQIbFp_gFBJ30NloFFGr07Odp8NjbH3k06ZHurQkwtsopKR8kGO-s4u9kjSGUAZxuDrIMzkidKZeiKRrVIu_JoWpWBzBBYXwpVU0OOnogBnL2Sv_6R2zYVxpTNF98K9FX0SwcY7mdr-l9HF-TmQfTT6af13Ut_3FW_Cxl35h-8o1qRzFoJZwkek2_8PoDZh6gwUk-EtV-7IOBxHr2SePce6H7suA3n8cg2u7cq4zomhRZEwqopYisghPWgLUki7OE_Ez6JwAA___ALVVI">Nasdaq </a></h6>
<p>The post <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2026/06/mega-ipos-and-institutional-portfolio-risk-managing-concentration-before-listings/">Mega IPOs and institutional portfolio risk: managing concentration before listings</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au">AdviserVoice</a>.</p>
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                <title>Narrowing market leadership raises challenges for active equity managers</title>
                <link>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2026/06/narrowing-market-leadership-raises-challenges-for-active-equity-managers/</link>
                <comments>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2026/06/narrowing-market-leadership-raises-challenges-for-active-equity-managers/#respond</comments>
                <pubDate>Wed, 03 Jun 2026 21:15:07 +0000</pubDate>
                <dc:creator>
                                    </dc:creator>
                		<category><![CDATA[Investment]]></category>
                <guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.adviservoice.com.au/?p=111717</guid>
                                    <description><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_87772" style="width: 660px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-87772" class="size-full wp-image-87772" src="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/asian-invest-650.png" alt="" width="650" height="350" srcset="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/asian-invest-650.png 650w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/asian-invest-650-300x162.png 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px" /><p id="caption-attachment-87772" class="wp-caption-text">In emerging markets, concentration is driven by key countries, most notably Taiwan, China and South Korea, as well as AI-related industries.</p></div>
<h3>Global equity markets are becoming increasingly concentrated, with benchmark performance being driven by a smaller group of stocks, sectors and countries. This dynamic is creating new challenges for investors, particularly active managers seeking to balance risk and return.</h3>
<p>Recent market trends show that both developed and emerging market indices are heavily influenced by a narrow set of large-cap companies, particularly within the technology sector. In developed markets, US mega-cap stocks continue to dominate index performance, while in emerging markets, concentration is driven by key countries, most notably Taiwan, China and South Korea, as well as AI-related industries.</p>
<p>This concentration has led to narrow earnings leadership, with a limited group of companies accounting for a disproportionate share of market returns. As a result, broader market participation has weakened, with many stocks lagging headline index performance.</p>
<p>For active managers, the environment presents a valuation and positioning dilemma. Many of the largest contributors to index returns are trading at elevated valuations, leading valuation-sensitive managers to underweight these stocks. This can result in performance divergence from benchmarks during periods when market leaders continue to outperform.</p>
<p>At the same time, rising concentration is increasing benchmark-relative risk, including higher tracking error and potential shifts in portfolio beta. These dynamics can affect how portfolios respond to market movements, particularly in rallies driven by a small number of dominant stocks.</p>
<p>While it remains uncertain whether current concentration levels are structural or transient, historical patterns suggest that periods of narrow leadership are unlikely to persist indefinitely. In the interim, the divergence between benchmark performance and broader market outcomes is expected to remain a key feature of global equities.</p>
]]></description>
                                            <content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_87772" style="width: 660px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-87772" class="size-full wp-image-87772" src="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/asian-invest-650.png" alt="" width="650" height="350" srcset="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/asian-invest-650.png 650w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/asian-invest-650-300x162.png 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px" /><p id="caption-attachment-87772" class="wp-caption-text">In emerging markets, concentration is driven by key countries, most notably Taiwan, China and South Korea, as well as AI-related industries.</p></div>
<h3>Global equity markets are becoming increasingly concentrated, with benchmark performance being driven by a smaller group of stocks, sectors and countries. This dynamic is creating new challenges for investors, particularly active managers seeking to balance risk and return.</h3>
<p>Recent market trends show that both developed and emerging market indices are heavily influenced by a narrow set of large-cap companies, particularly within the technology sector. In developed markets, US mega-cap stocks continue to dominate index performance, while in emerging markets, concentration is driven by key countries, most notably Taiwan, China and South Korea, as well as AI-related industries.</p>
<p>This concentration has led to narrow earnings leadership, with a limited group of companies accounting for a disproportionate share of market returns. As a result, broader market participation has weakened, with many stocks lagging headline index performance.</p>
<p>For active managers, the environment presents a valuation and positioning dilemma. Many of the largest contributors to index returns are trading at elevated valuations, leading valuation-sensitive managers to underweight these stocks. This can result in performance divergence from benchmarks during periods when market leaders continue to outperform.</p>
<p>At the same time, rising concentration is increasing benchmark-relative risk, including higher tracking error and potential shifts in portfolio beta. These dynamics can affect how portfolios respond to market movements, particularly in rallies driven by a small number of dominant stocks.</p>
<p>While it remains uncertain whether current concentration levels are structural or transient, historical patterns suggest that periods of narrow leadership are unlikely to persist indefinitely. In the interim, the divergence between benchmark performance and broader market outcomes is expected to remain a key feature of global equities.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2026/06/narrowing-market-leadership-raises-challenges-for-active-equity-managers/">Narrowing market leadership raises challenges for active equity managers</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au">AdviserVoice</a>.</p>
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                <title>Brookfield Brings Global Evergreen Infrastructure Strategy to the Australian Wealth Market</title>
                <link>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2026/06/brookfield-brings-global-evergreen-infrastructure-strategy-to-the-australian-wealth-market/</link>
                <comments>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2026/06/brookfield-brings-global-evergreen-infrastructure-strategy-to-the-australian-wealth-market/#respond</comments>
                <pubDate>Wed, 03 Jun 2026 21:10:22 +0000</pubDate>
                <dc:creator>
                                    </dc:creator>
                		<category><![CDATA[Investment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jeremy Hall]]></category>
                <guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.adviservoice.com.au/?p=111767</guid>
                                    <description><![CDATA[<div class="x_WordSection1">
<div id="attachment_111768" style="width: 660px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-111768" class="size-full wp-image-111768" src="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Hall-Jeremy-650.jpg" alt="" width="650" height="350" srcset="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Hall-Jeremy-650.jpg 650w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Hall-Jeremy-650-300x162.jpg 300w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Hall-Jeremy-650-400x215.jpg 400w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px" /><p id="caption-attachment-111768" class="wp-caption-text">Jeremy Hall</p></div>
<h3 class="x_MsoNormal">Brookfield has launched its Brookfield Infrastructure Income Fund (AUD) (the “Fund”) for wholesale investors in Australia’s private wealth market, with demand expected to be strong from the advised and self-managed super fund channels.</h3>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Brookfield Private Wealth has been expanding its offering to wealth investors across Australia and Asia Pacific more broadly, most recently signing a partnership with Japanese financial institution Mizuho Securities to distribute its infrastructure income strategy in Japan in April 2026.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">With a total asset value of US $8.3 billion,<sup>[1]</sup> the Brookfield Infrastructure Income strategy (“BII”) provides wealth investors with access to Brookfield’s leading global infrastructure platform through a diversified portfolio of private infrastructure investments. Key features of BII include monthly distributions and lower minimums. With US$390 billion in assets under management within its infrastructure and energy businesses, Brookfield’s global scale and 125+ year history as an infrastructure owner operator underpins the strategy’s ability to source, operate and grow high-quality assets that support the backbone of the global economy.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Jeremy Hall, Head of International for Brookfield’s private wealth business, said: “For decades, institutional investors have benefited from Brookfield’s investment capabilities and access to high-quality infrastructure assets, which deliver strong cash flows, built-in inflation protection, and low correlation to equities and bonds. These characteristics are increasingly sought after by individual investors to insulate and improve risk-adjusted returns for their portfolios. By bringing BII to Australia, we’re providing the same access to Brookfield’s long standing institutional infrastructure expertise and track record to individual investors in Australia looking to diversify their portfolios.”</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">The Fund is currently available to the Australian wealth market via platforms including Macquarie Wrap, HUB24, Praemium, Powerwrap and Mason Stevens.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Channel Investment Management Limited (AFSL 439007) acts as the Responsible Entity and Investment Manager for the Fund.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal" aria-hidden="true">&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;-</p>
<h6 aria-hidden="true"><strong>Notes: </strong><br />
[1] as of March 31, 2026</h6>
</div>
]]></description>
                                            <content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="x_WordSection1">
<div id="attachment_111768" style="width: 660px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-111768" class="size-full wp-image-111768" src="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Hall-Jeremy-650.jpg" alt="" width="650" height="350" srcset="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Hall-Jeremy-650.jpg 650w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Hall-Jeremy-650-300x162.jpg 300w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Hall-Jeremy-650-400x215.jpg 400w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px" /><p id="caption-attachment-111768" class="wp-caption-text">Jeremy Hall</p></div>
<h3 class="x_MsoNormal">Brookfield has launched its Brookfield Infrastructure Income Fund (AUD) (the “Fund”) for wholesale investors in Australia’s private wealth market, with demand expected to be strong from the advised and self-managed super fund channels.</h3>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Brookfield Private Wealth has been expanding its offering to wealth investors across Australia and Asia Pacific more broadly, most recently signing a partnership with Japanese financial institution Mizuho Securities to distribute its infrastructure income strategy in Japan in April 2026.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">With a total asset value of US $8.3 billion,<sup>[1]</sup> the Brookfield Infrastructure Income strategy (“BII”) provides wealth investors with access to Brookfield’s leading global infrastructure platform through a diversified portfolio of private infrastructure investments. Key features of BII include monthly distributions and lower minimums. With US$390 billion in assets under management within its infrastructure and energy businesses, Brookfield’s global scale and 125+ year history as an infrastructure owner operator underpins the strategy’s ability to source, operate and grow high-quality assets that support the backbone of the global economy.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Jeremy Hall, Head of International for Brookfield’s private wealth business, said: “For decades, institutional investors have benefited from Brookfield’s investment capabilities and access to high-quality infrastructure assets, which deliver strong cash flows, built-in inflation protection, and low correlation to equities and bonds. These characteristics are increasingly sought after by individual investors to insulate and improve risk-adjusted returns for their portfolios. By bringing BII to Australia, we’re providing the same access to Brookfield’s long standing institutional infrastructure expertise and track record to individual investors in Australia looking to diversify their portfolios.”</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">The Fund is currently available to the Australian wealth market via platforms including Macquarie Wrap, HUB24, Praemium, Powerwrap and Mason Stevens.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Channel Investment Management Limited (AFSL 439007) acts as the Responsible Entity and Investment Manager for the Fund.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal" aria-hidden="true">&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;-</p>
<h6 aria-hidden="true"><strong>Notes: </strong><br />
[1] as of March 31, 2026</h6>
</div>
<p>The post <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2026/06/brookfield-brings-global-evergreen-infrastructure-strategy-to-the-australian-wealth-market/">Brookfield Brings Global Evergreen Infrastructure Strategy to the Australian Wealth Market</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au">AdviserVoice</a>.</p>
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