Thomas Lillelund

Artificial intelligence is driving one of the largest infrastructure investment cycles in decades, but the rapid global build-out of data centers is also creating a new era of construction, operational, climate and insurance risks, according to the latest Allianz Commercial The data center construction boom: risks and claims trends report.

Annual investment in data centers is projected to double from around US$500bn in 2024 to more than US$1trn as early as 2027. The investment opportunity extends far beyond server halls to electricity generation, grid infrastructure, cooling, networking, and semiconductors. According to Allianz Research, the US and China are expected to account for around 62% of new global capacity additions through 2030, but the next wave of investment is becoming increasingly global.

In Europe, Germany, the UK and Ireland remain major markets, but faster expansion is expected in Spain, Finland and Denmark, where power availability and permitting conditions can be more favorable. Across Asia Pacific, excluding China, installed capacity is projected to increase from around 9GW today to more than 28GW by 2030, with Malaysia expected to grow more than tenfold.

“AI is turning the latest generation of data centers from a specialist real estate asset into mission-critical infrastructure,” says Thomas Lillelund, CEO of Allianz Commercial. “The scale of investment is extraordinary and, as these centers evolve beyond traditional data storage to high-performance compute demands, success will increasingly depend on resilience: access to power, reliable supply chains, robust construction controls, as well as climate-aware site selection and insurance programs that reflect the true accumulation risk. Indeed, comprehensive insurance cover has become a prerequisite for financing many large-scale AI infrastructure projects.”

Resilience must be central to data center operations

he sector’s biggest constraints are increasingly physical rather than financial. Competitive advantage is increasingly determined by access to electricity, grid connections, permitting, specialized equipment and skilled labor. In the US alone, the construction industry faces a shortage of around 439,000 skilled workers, while an estimated 349,000 additional workers may be needed in 2026. Climate resilience is increasingly a strategic consideration rather than an operational afterthought. Around 79% of global data center capacity is already located in areas exposed to heightened natural catastrophe risk, while 54% is exposed to chronic heat and drought stress. Some of the fastest-growing AI infrastructure markets are also among the most climate-exposed, including Northern Virginia, US, Johor in Malaysia, and Marseille, France. Acute flood, wildfire and wind exposure is highest in the Americas, affecting 86% of capacity, while chronic heat and drought stress is greatest in Asia Pacific, where 89% of capacity is exposed.

Global data center insurance market will more than double by 2030
Insurance is evolving alongside the sector. As data centers assume a more critical role in infrastructure, comprehensive insurance cover has become a prerequisite for financing many large-scale AI infrastructure projects. Construction costs for a single AI campus can exceed US$20bn, with insured values rising substantially once high-performance computing equipment is installed. The global data center insurance market is projected to grow from around US$11bn today to more than US$24bn by 2030, reflecting rapid capacity expansion, rising insured values and increasing operational complexity. Demand is expected to extend beyond traditional property cover towards integrated solutions spanning construction, engineering, property, business interruption, cyber and liability, while also creating new opportunities in areas such as energy resilience, operational continuity, and technology risk.

Risk and claims trends: fire drives severity; water damage frequency

Allianz Commercial analysis of insurance industry data center-related claims shows that fire is the leading driver of loss severity, accounting for well over 50% of around €700mn (US$800mn) worth of losses. Natural catastrophe activity ranks second, followed by willful acts, which include crime and cyber incidents, followed by power failure. Water damage is the most frequent cause of data center claims, followed by willful acts, fire, and equipment breakdown. Business interruption is the primary driver of claims severity by line of insurance, highlighting the significant financial impact of operational downtime.

The data center risk profile is changing as facilities become larger, more complex, and more increasingly interdependent. Hyperscale and colocation of campuses can bring together multiple tenants, construction works, servers, supporting utilities and on-site infrastructure in one physical or operational space. A single event can therefore trigger claims across property, construction, business interruption, liability, cyber, and financial lines. Real-life claims case studies show that in hyperscale facilities, damage to external cooling systems, hot works-related fire damage, and a delay in start-up caused by power disturbances have each resulted in losses in the US$50mn to US$100mn range.

“For insurers, the key question is not only the value of the building, but the concentration of value and dependency inside and around it. Power, cooling, batteries, fiber routes, testing and commissioning, and business continuity planning are all part of the same risk picture. Effective risk mitigation must begin early and continue throughout the data center lifecycle. Resilience must be designed in from the earliest planning stage,” explains Christian Kolbe, Global Head of Construction Claims at Allianz Commercial.

Clarity between policies essential to avoid ambiguity

Data center projects encompass different project phases with several stakeholders and interests involved, which can create complications. During the construction phase, stakeholders include the owner, developer, contractor, and subcontractors, whereas in the operational phase, the stakeholders include the owner-operator, and potentially multiple tenants or end users. For example, different policies could respond to a hot works-related fire resulting in damage to a data center nearing completion, and this would impact different stakeholders.

“Clarity is critical with an insurance claim,” says Charlotte Field, Regional Head of Short-tail Claims, Asia, at Allianz Commercial. “Clearly documented handovers are essential between your construction all-risk policy and operational policy. There must be no ambiguity about practical completion, in order to avoid disputes over which policy responds to a particular event and the extent of cover.”

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Thomas Lillelund

Despite seeming predictable in hindsight, Black Swans are unexpected or unforeseen events that are highly disruptive and economically damaging. Examples include the 9/11 attacks of 2001 in the US, the 2008 global financial crisis, and the Covid-19 pandemic. Allianz Research estimates cumulative global GDP losses from the pandemic between 2020 and 2023 to be in the region of US$12trn.In addition to the huge financial and business costs, such events typically have long-lasting implications, resulting in geopolitical and societal shifts that continue many years after the initial event.

According to new Allianz Risk Barometer analysis, more than half of the 3,000+ respondents (51%) identify a global supply chain paralysis due to a geopolitical conflict as the most plausible Black Swan scenario globally which could impact their company in the next five years. Fear of a global internet outage ranks second (47%) which reflects the increasing awareness of cyber and artificial intelligence (AI) risks among business leaders.

Respondents in Asia Pacific also identified a global supply chain paralysis and global internet outrage as the two most plausible Black Swan scenarios; the former is ranked first in China and Hong Kong, Singapore, and South Korea, while the latter is ranked first in Australia, India, Japan, Malaysia, and Thailand.

Allianz Commercial CEO Thomas Lillelund comments: “Although Black Swan events are not seen to be immediately likely, these rare, high-impact scenarios are perceived as increasingly plausible and should be considered by executive boards given their potential consequences. Growing interconnectivity across both physical and digital supply chains means disruptions now cascade much faster and can turn into major losses. In today’s fragmented geopolitical environment, companies must double down on resilience and integrated risk management to ride out the next perfect storm.”

Geopolitics is a key driver for Black Swans
Given the current geopolitical environment, it is no surprise that supply chain paralysis resulting from a geopolitical conflict is regarded as the most plausible Black Swan scenario. The threats of tariffs, trade wars and protectionism, as well as disruption to supply chains and shipping caused by regional conflicts in the Middle East and Russia / Ukraine are at the top of every board agenda. Allianz Research estimates that cumulative GDP losses over a two-year horizon triggered by a global supply chain disruption on the scale of the war in Ukraine could total US$1.5trn. In fact, political-related risks stand out as a leading potential trigger for Black Swan events, according to respondents. Mass social unrest and political instability is regarded as the fourth most plausible scenario globally (29%) and is a top three risk in the Americas (31%) and Africa and the Middle East (41%) regions, as well as in France (42%), for example. A sudden collapse of a major financial institution or a sovereign debt crisis, leading to a global liquidity crisis and severe market volatility ranks third (30%).

Interconnectivity and interdependency of both physical and digital supply chains are potentially increasing vulnerability at a time of geopolitical uncertainty, rapid advances in technology, and climate change. Businesses and global supply chains are also more vulnerable to Black Swan events due to growing concentrations of economic activity reliant on a limited number of critical suppliers and products in areas like AI and digital services, semiconductors, rare earth processors and transition technologies.

Company size influences risk perception
Global supply chain paralysis due to a geopolitical conflict halting the movement of goods and raw materials ranks top for both large (>US$500mn annual revenue, 55% of responses) and mid-sized companies (US$100mn+ to US$500mn, 52%). In contrast, smaller companies (<USS$100mn) are most concerned about the impact of a global internet outage (45%), which is the #2 scenario for larger and mid-sized businesses. The third most plausible Black Swan for mid-sized and smaller companies is the sudden collapse of a major financial institution, while larger companies are more concerned about the risk of simultaneous climate disaster and energy grid failure, such as a heatwave triggering wildfires and widespread blackouts. Multinational enterprises have the advantages of bigger budgets and more diversified portfolios and therefore feel they are better prepared to mitigate the risks of an event such as a major internet outage than their smaller and medium-sized counterparts.

“Awareness of Black Swans and the need to build resilience has increased in recent years, but businesses can never fully prepare for rare high impact events such as a global outage or an unforeseen climate-related catastrophe. Building organizational agility, fostering a risk-aware culture and developing scalable response plans for a range of scenarios remain the most practical steps to best prepare for Black Swan events. Insurers can play a critical role in helping businesses strengthen their resilience in areas such as cyber risk and support more informed decisions when assessing and selecting critical suppliers,” says Michael Bruch, Global Head of Risk Consulting Advisory Services, Allianz Commercial.

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Anthony Vassallo

Hydrogen will play a crucial role in driving the green transition with demand expected to surge in the coming decades. Around 60 governments have adopted hydrogen strategies, while the number of planned projects is already exceeding 1,500 globally compared to around 200 in 2021 – an increase of around 600%.

To realise these projects, a total investment volume of US$680bn until 2030 may be needed, according to the Hydrogen Council and McKinsey, which will trigger a greatly increased demand for insurance to protect against risks as this investment is activated. Europe is leading the way by far with 617 planned projects and the highest total investment announced at $199bn.

While the potential of hydrogen is undoubtable, there are still challenges and headwinds to overcome. The potential size and scope of the hydrogen economy will depend on a range of factors including the evolving political, trade, and economic environment, as well as demand. Policymakers and regulators need to address costs for the development of the infrastructure, so that scaling up at a competitive level towards other energy sources is possible. Across all industries, stringent safety measures will be vital to manage hydrogen’s inherent risks. This is where the insurance industry comes into play. As hydrogen becomes integrated into the global economy, insurers can expect to see a significant increase in demand for coverage, with Allianz Commercial expecting the insurance market for hydrogen project coverage to grow to over US$3 billion in premiums by 2030.

“Insurers have a key role to play in the development of the hydrogen economy, enabling investment and innovation, and providing risk management advice and guidance. Collaboration and knowledge-sharing within this industry are essential for developing best practices and building expertise. By addressing these multi-faceted challenges, the insurance sector can support the growth of the hydrogen economy and help facilitate the transition to net-zero emissions,” says Anthony Vassallo, Global Head of Natural Resources at Allianz Commercial.

Hydrogen offers great potential in Asia Pacific, but challenges and risks remain

While it holds much promise and has been used in the chemical and refinery sectors for many decades, with risks such as fire, explosion and embrittlement being already well-known, the integration of hydrogen into other industries brings a range of challenges with currently planned mega projects requiring a scale-up of risk management. Energy production facilities will involve hydrogen storage and high-temperature combustion, which can lead to leaks and explosions. In transport, applications like hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will also face risks of hydrogen embrittlement and leaks. Port operators, bunkering facilities and fuel handlers will need to manage highly flammable and cryogenic hydrogen fuels, bringing accident and contamination risks.

“Hydrogen holds significant promise in driving the energy transition across the Asia Pacific region, and we are already seeing power generation projects being developed that are designed to run with hydrogen as a potential fuel source. Further collaboration between countries can also be expected, in areas such as storage and transportation infrastructure, that will help to accelerate the deployment of hydrogen in the region. Allianz Commercial, with its proven expertise in low-carbon and energy sectors, is dedicated to supporting clients on their sustainability journey,” adds Trent Cannings, Regional Head of Natural Resources & Construction and Head of Specialty Hub at Allianz Commercial Asia Pacific.

Risk management and mitigation are crucial for hydrogen projects

Given hydrogen’s unique properties and high combustibility, ensuring safety throughout the value chain is crucial. Analysis of hydrogen-related incidents shows that undetected leaks can easily lead to explosions; equipment design, maintenance and training can help prevent the escape of flammable hydrogen gas, while the risks of ignition can also be reduced by locating hydrogen facilities in the open. Embrittlement risks can be managed using hydrogen-compatible materials and specifically designed resistant coatings. In addition to preventing incidents, organizations can take steps to limit the extent of property damage, business interruption, and third-party liability. Buildings and facilities should be designed and constructed to withstand natural hazards, fire and explosion, and limit damage to adjacent property and equipment. Robust hydrogen leak detection and isolation systems are also paramount. Human error is also a common factor in large losses. Operational, safety, emergency procedures, and training should be frequently updated, including having robust and well-rehearsed plans in place for accidental releases.

“Given the wide reach of the hydrogen value chain and its potential uses, the implications for insurance could be far-reaching, touching on multiple sectors and lines of business over the next decade. However, from an exposure and potential claims perspective, product lines such as Energy, Natural Resources and Liability are likely to see the biggest impact from hydrogen risks over the next five to 10 years, followed by Property and Marine,” explains Vassallo.

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