BCG’s M&A Report 2026, identifies four key forces shaping the market in Australia: a changing regulatory environment, the growing influence of superannuation funds, macroeconomic uncertainty and a continuing disconnect between buyer and seller expectations.

According to the report, Australia’s new mandatory merger control regime and heightened foreign investment scrutiny are extending approval timelines and increasing execution risks for acquirers. At the same time, higher interest rates and lower growth expectations are widening valuation gaps, making it harder for buyers and sellers to agree on price and contributing to subdued deal volumes.

“The Australian M&A market remains challenging, but there are still attractive opportunities for organisations with a clear strategic rationale and the patience to execute effectively,” said Matthew Abel, Managing Director and Senior Partner at BCG.

“Success increasingly depends on preparation, valuation discipline and the ability to navigate a more demanding regulatory environment. The best dealmakers are focusing on quality opportunities rather than pursuing transactions for growth’s sake.”

The report also highlights the growing influence of Australia’s superannuation sector. Superannuation funds now hold more than A$4 trillion in assets and are estimated to own around 36 per cent of the ASX’s market capitalisation, increasing their importance in the outcome of major transactions.

“Superannuation funds are becoming increasingly important stakeholders in Australia’s dealmaking landscape,” said Gates Moss, Partner and Associate Director at BCG. “Acquirers need to be prepared to explain not only the financial merits of a transaction, but also its strategic value and broader impact on the Australian capital market.”

Despite the headwinds, BCG expects opportunities to emerge in sectors benefiting from long-term structural demand. Australia continues to attract strong investor interest in LNG, energy transition assets and critical minerals such as lithium, copper and rare earths, reflecting the nation’s role in global energy security and the resources transition.

The report also notes that upcoming changes to capital gains tax settings could encourage more privately owned businesses to come to market before July 2027, potentially creating a larger pool of opportunities for strategic and private equity buyers.

“While conditions remain difficult, businesses that take a long-term view, prepare early for regulatory scrutiny and remain disciplined about where they deploy capital will be best positioned to create value as the market evolves,” said Gates Moss.

Read the report.

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Inderpreet Batra

Global payments revenue is projected to grow to $2.4 trillion by 2029, according to new research from Boston Consulting Group (BCG). While growth is expected to moderate to 4% annually over the next five years, the industry is undergoing a foundational reset as agentic AI, digital currencies, and fintech business models begin to shape the next wave of expansion.

These findings come from BCG’s 23rd annual Global Payments Report, The Future Is (Anything but) Stable, released yesterday. The report draws on BCG’s proprietary Global Payments Model and includes forecasts and market dynamics across more than 60 economies accounting for more than 90% of global GDP. It identifies five structural forces reshaping the payments landscape: the rise of agentic AI, digital currencies such as stablecoins, fintech disruption, real-time account-to-account (A2A) systems, and the enduring importance of cost transformation.

“This is a turning point for the industry,” said Inderpreet Batra, BCG managing director and senior partner and global head of the firm’s payments and fintech segment. “Traditional growth levers are losing force, but new drivers including agentic systems, programmable money, and fintech innovation are rapidly coming into focus. The players that align to these shifts now will lead the next decade.”

New forces reshaping the industry

Among the key findings of the 2025 report:

• Global payments revenue reached $1.9 trillion in 2024, but future growth will slow. After growing at 8.8% annually since 2019, revenue expansion is expected to ease to 4% annually. Transaction-based revenues remain strong, while deposit margin tailwinds slacken. Looking at overall growth (transaction-related and non-transaction-related revenue combined), Latin America will lead with 7.9% projected annual growth from 2024 to 2029, followed by the Middle East and Africa at 6.8%. Revenue growth in Europe over this period is expected to be 3.5%, in line with North America (3.4%) and Asia-Pacific (3.3%).
• Agentic AI is set to influence over $1 trillion in e-commerce spending. According to BCG research, 81% of US consumers expect to use agentic AI tools to shop, which will shape more than half of all online purchases in the near future.
• Stablecoins reached $26 trillion in volume, although real-world payments account for only 1% of that total. The market remains heavily concentrated in facilitating crypto trading.
• Payments fintechs generated $176 billion in revenue in 2024, and are growing at 23% annually. Payments-focused fintechs have attracted over $135 billion in equity funding over the past 25 years and now make up 45% of total fintech revenue. The top performers are growing three times as fast as incumbents.
• Real-time A2A payment volumes rose 40% globally in 2024. These systems now account for around a quarter of digital retail payments worldwide, even exceeding 50% of transactions in selected markets like India and Brazil. In the Middle East and Africa, where real-time systems are still emerging, adoption is projected to reach more than 50% by 2030.

“We’re entering an era where growth and complexity go hand in hand,” said Markus Ampenberger, BCG managing director and partner. “The next winners in payments won’t just be fast adopters of technology. They will be the firms that deeply integrate new capabilities into business and operating models, and customer value propositions.”

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