Oliver’s Insights – China worries return, but how serious are they?

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The attached edition of Oliver’s Insights looks at the outlook for the Chinese economy and share market. The key points are as follows: China’s worries are overblown. Property tightening is likely to remain highly targeted and unlikely to threaten overall growth with aggressive monetary tightening unlikely. On the other hand, reflecting a desire for more sustainable growth

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Weekly economic and market update

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The big development of the past week has been Japan taking another huge step down the path of reflation with the Bank of Japan under the new dovish leadership of Governor Kuroda more than delivering on expectations for more aggressive monetary easing. The BoJ doubled monthly asset purchases which will double the monetary base (cash

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Weekly economic & market update

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Europe continued to cause concerns for investors over the past week with Cyprus getting a new bailout deal but fears that it still sets precedents for future bank bailouts and worries about the lack of a new Government in Italy weighing on confidence. Against this though the US S&P 500 powered on to a record

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Weekly market & economic update

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Europe dominated investment markets over the past week following an initially botched bailout of Cyprus, along with uncertainty regarding Italy and poor business conditions indicators or PMIs for March. All of this has contributed to a bit of a further correction in shares after their huge gains in recent months. The immediate focus is likely

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Oliver’s Insights – Money printing and hyperinflation

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This edition of Oliver’s Insights looks at the risks associated with quantitative easing, or money printing, in particular the threat of hyperinflation that many seem to be fearing. The key points are as follows: Concerns that quantitative easing will end in hyperinflation and economic mayhem are way overblown. Constrained demand for credit along with significant

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Weekly economic and market update

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The past week was somewhat confusing in financial markets. US economic data remained surprisingly solid helping to push US shares higher, Japanese shares continued to surge helped by the confirmation of a new more pro stimulus leadership for the Bank of Japan and European shares were helped by a relaxation of fiscal austerity along with

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Australian profits, growth, interest rates and shares

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This edition of Oliver’s Insights looks at the outlook for Australian shares and interest rates given the just concluded profit reporting season and the December quarter national accounts. The key points are as follows: The December half profit reporting season was far better than feared and big cost controls have helped lay the ground work for stronger

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Weekly economic & market update

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While the past week started on a rough note with stepped up property tightening measures in China, it turned around pretty quick with the US Dow Jones index making it to a new record high. Apart from the generally favourable tone to most economic data, there were a number of positive developments. Firstly, while China

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Weekly economic and market update

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Shares had a volatile ride, getting hit earlier in the week following the poor outcome from the Italian election only to then rebound to varying degrees as worries about Italy and renewed contagion in Europe settled down and US economic data surprised on the upside. The inconclusive Italian election result with the centre left winning

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A new secular bull market in shares is close

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The attached edition of Oliver’s Insights looks at the prospects for a new long term or secular bull market in shares. The key points are as follows: After being in a long term, or secular, bear market since March 2000 that has resulted in very poor returns for investors, global shares led by the US

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