Matthew Davison

Matthew Davison, Portfolio Manager at Martin Currie Australia has cautioned that Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s (CBA) recent upgrade cycle may be drawing to a close, despite the bank continuing to post robust results.

“CBA is still delivering solid performance with modest growth, but sequential momentum is weakening as cost and reinvestment pressures offset stable margins and strong loan growth,” he said. “The return on equity (ROE) and growth trends remain disconnected from the current valuation.”

The latest result came broadly in line with consensus expectations, with no major surprises. “We saw a small beat on trading income, but this was offset by higher costs. There were no shocks on asset quality. Investment spending is running higher, particularly in AI – something that will be seen as a positive by some investors.”

However, he remains cautious on the stock’s outlook. “We would consider this stock as a ‘sell’ / hold underweight. CBA trades at a significant premium to our valuations and to its key peers – nearly 4x price-to-book and 29x price-to-earnings. This premium is disconnected from the ROE and growth trends we see in these results and has been disproportionately driven by passive flows.”

“Net interest margins (NIMs) are stable for now, but deposit competition is intensifying, and the tailwind from prior interest rate rises is fading. Over time, valuations remain very vulnerable to any shift in sentiment around credit risk – something that would also affect risk-weighted assets and credit charges. History suggests there’s also a risk that liability margins worsen.”

And current valuations are stretched. “We’d rate the market at a 4 on a scale of 1 to 5 for expensiveness. Value spreads are relatively wide. We haven’t had a strong bias on earnings revisions given the decent economic data and rate cut expectations lifting some cyclical activity. We see value as stock-specific rather than sector-wide, with attractive names in insurance, contractors, iron ore, energy and travel.

“Looking ahead prevailing valuations remain the key concern. Underlying earnings appear to be trending sideways under persistent cost pressures, and credit charges will eventually rise, pulling down reported profits. While NIMs are stable for now, deposit competition is building and the benefits from earlier rate rises are easing.

“Within the Banks, we prefer ANZ. ANZ still trades at a discount to peers largely due to sentiment rather than fundamentals, and we think the new CEO has the opportunity to improve cost discipline and close that gap.”

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Matthew Davison

Franklin Templeton specialist investment manager Martin Currie Australia (MCA) has been selected to manage another Australian Equity mandate available on the CFS FirstChoice platform.

The selection of the MCA Active Insights strategy is further recognition of the strong relationship between Franklin Templeton, Martin Currie and Colonial First State, which sits alongside a number of Martin Currie strategies, and those of other Franklin Templeton specialist investment managers, on the CFS FirstChoice platform.

“We are pleased to be awarded this mandate for the MCA Active Insights Australia equity strategy and to have our expertise in managing Australian equity portfolios continually acknowledged. We believe this strategy, which seeks to provide consistent relative returns with reduced risk over shorter time horizons, will provide beneficial diversification for users of the FirstChoice platform,” Franklin Templeton managing director Australia Felicity Walsh, said.

The MCA Active Insights Australian equity strategy strives to tackle the problem that traditional active fundamental equity portfolios often have with a reliance on style or factor mean reversion and which are often associated with higher tracking error.

“In the face of the growing weight of assets behind passive or index-sensitive strategies, not to mention the strict penalties for any fund failing regulatory performance tests, this strategy harmonises our fundamental insights with disciplined risk control,” Matt Davison, portfolio manager at Martin Currie Australia, said.

The MCA Active Insights strategy isolates the investment team’s ‘pure’ fundamental insights, while also minimising style factor and sector risks relative to the S&P/ASX 200 Index.

“Importantly, the strategy’s portfolio construction approach allows my co-portfolio manager, Sam Li, and I, to tailor the risk exposures within our sleeve of a multi-manager portfolio to complement the existing exposures clients may have elsewhere in their portfolio,” Davidson said.

“We believe this solutions-based style, together with MCA’s ‘active ownership’ approach, which embeds ESG assessment into every part of the investment process, were both particularly important in securing the Colonial First State mandate.  We look forward to this strategy being used as a core component of the platform’s Australian equity multi-manager portfolio,” Walsh added.

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Will Baylis

Corporate Australia is struggling to meet Net Zero goals, with significant challenges hindering progress according to Martin Currie Australia, a leading equities investment manager. Even though the firm has committed to aligning its Sustainable Equity and Sustainable Income Funds with the Net Zero Asset Managers Initiative (NZAMI) goal of 100% verified Science-Based Targets (SBTs) by 2040, the journey is proving far more complex than anticipated.

“Achieving Net Zero is not a straightforward path,” says Will Baylis, Portfolio Manager at Martin Currie. “It’s a multi-dimensional challenge with stringent requirements, technological hurdles and competing corporate priorities slowing progress. Many companies are finding it difficult to balance regulatory compliance with meaningful climate action.”

Since the firm began tracking SBTs in 2022, only 11% of S&P/ASX 200 companies by market capitalisation have achieved fully verified SBTs, and a further 15% are publicly committed to doing so. Alarmingly, 73% of the index remains without clear commitments to verified climate action, signaling a significant gap in corporate Australia’s Net Zero ambitions.

On a sector-by-sector basis, companies in the real estate, consumer staples, communications and industrials sectors have progressed the most with verification, while healthcare companies are largely committed to the process. Unsurprisingly, utilities, metals & mining and energy are the laggards.

Martin Currie Australia’s recent outreach to large ASX-listed companies revealed a troubling trend: rather than embracing science-based frameworks, many companies are scaling back or delaying commitments. “The reasons are multi-faceted, but the end result is clear — we’re not moving fast enough,” Baylis says.

Martin Currie Australia’s research uncovered several critical obstacles impeding corporate Australia’s climate journey:

1. Regulatory burdens: Australia’s new Sustainability Reporting Standards, overseen by ASIC, require large businesses to disclose climate-related information. While these rules are a positive step for transparency, they do not mandate external verification like SBTi. As a result, many companies are prioritising compliance over proactive climate action.
2. Stringent SBTi requirements: SBTi’s alignment with a 1.5-degree pathway demands rigorous measurement of Scope 3 emissions and ongoing recalibration of targets — a hurdle many firms are ill-equipped to handle. Hard-to-abate sectors like resources and energy face even greater difficulty due to technological limitations, particularly the slow progress in green hydrogen and renewable energy access.
3. Sector-specific challenges: Australia’s resource-heavy economy presents unique challenges. Many companies in non-resource sectors question the necessity of SBTi validation when larger emitters in mining and energy lag far behind. In the resources sector, Fortescue is one of the few major players to achieve SBTi verification.
4. Alternatives diluting focus: Companies are turning to alternative frameworks, such as the Australian government’s Climate Active Carbon Neutral Certification, which emphasises transparency but lacks the science-based rigor of SBTi. In industries like property, NABERS Energy ratings and GRESB scores provide sector-specific benchmarks but don’t fully align with global climate science standards.

“Our findings also highlight emerging trends that could further derail climate progress. Companies are resisting the ‘all-or-nothing’ 1.5-degree pathway, arguing that a below 2-degree scenario might be more realistic and encourage wider adoption. There are growing community objections to renewable energy projects, such as wind farms, which are slowing infrastructure development critical for emissions reductions. And rising scepticism towards ESG topics and protectionist policies are diverting corporate priorities, further complicating the transition to Net Zero.”

Despite these challenges, Martin Currie remains committed to its goal of verified SBTs for 100% of its portfolio holdings by 2040. However, the firm acknowledges the need for flexibility and a non-linear trajectory.

“Our ambition is clear, but we must balance it with adaptability,” says Baylis. “A rigid pursuit of perfection may alienate companies instead of driving progress. By fostering engagement and dialogue, and supporting realistic transitions we can encourage broader industry participation and meaningful climate action.”

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Reece Birtles

Company results and communications from the recent August 2024 reporting season echo the poor conditions experienced back in 2019, according to Chief Investment Officer at Franklin Templeton specialist investment manager Martin Currie, Reece Birtles.

“The last 12 months’ returns for the key indices suggest the market is behaving as if a ‘Goldilocks’ economic landing is actually possible. Investors appear overly hopeful about the positive impacts of lower inflation and interest rates, ignoring the fact that lower inflation means a less desirable, slowing sales environment as consumers spend less,” Birtles said.

Current market price reactions to reporting season appear to be disregarding any evidence that contradicts the ‘Goldilocks’ narrative for the economy, leading to rising stock prices without the support of earnings growth.

Martin Currie conducted more than 100 meetings and engagements with company management teams during the reporting period and observed a disconnect between the share market exuberance and feedback from management.

“In our company engagements and visits, we noted general feedback that consumer demand weakness has now joined business demand weakness as a key issue. In previous reporting seasons consumer demand had been resilient and enough to maintain margins,” he said.

For the S&P/ASX 200 stocks that Martin Currie covers, they have assessed management guidance tone to have a two to one negative skew below what brokers were expecting before the results.

Not surprisingly, this has led to more than 40% of companies receiving downgrades to their EPS forecasts versus only a quarter receiving upgrades.

The biggest driver of the weak guidance from management was the slowing inflationary environment that everyone seems to be wishing for, which is making it a lot harder for companies to maintain or grow EPS.

“Given slowing inflation and poor revenue growth, pricing power and gross margin management have saved the results of many industrial companies, but with selling prices falling, it is making for quite a difficult margin expansion environment for many companies going forward,” Birtles said.

In some good news for companies, labour has gone from being one of the top headwinds to earnings, in terms of shortage and cost, to no longer being a constraint, or to even being an opportunity. Unfortunately, rising unemployment will eventually be a factor in dampening demand.

In the current market environment, Martin Currie believes that growth-style stocks remain expensive, while value stocks are still cheap relative to historical standards.

In this market, focus should be on companies with pricing power, resilient volumes, and the capacity to manage margins, while avoiding those with valuation risk.

“Normally it is said that risky stocks are the ones that are cheap, but at the moment, safety is actually not expensive. We are finding undervalued names that have defensive business characteristics or profit drivers less related to the broader economic cycle,” Birtles said.

Examples of these kinds of companies include South32, which has undertaken a significant business transformation focussed on copper and other materials needed for the energy transition; Worley, which will benefit from increased spend in renewables in future years; and Flight Centre Travel Group, which has made significant business efficiency improvements and is seeing ongoing demand growth.

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Reece Birtles

Shareholders are increasingly concerned about companies becoming more conservative in their payout ratios and debt levels. According to data collated on S&P/ASX 200 companies, this current reporting season saw average payout ratio decrease from 62% to 53%, while the debt-to-revenue ratio has also dropped from 33% to 22% since pre-Covid.^[1]

“This retention of earnings, rather than reinvesting them into high-return growth opportunities, is a concern for shareholder value,” said Reece Birtles, chief investment officer at Martin Currie. “The lack of pressure on boards and management regarding this trend appears to be a byproduct of the momentum-driven market. As conditions shift, we hope to see a return to dividends as a core indicator of shareholder value.”

“For investors, dividends will continue to play an important role as they provide more reliable returns than capital gains and can act as a ‘safety net’ during heightened volatility,” he added.

However, there were some positive signs of capital management during this reporting period.

“We saw special dividends from companies like JB Hi-Fi, Super Retail Group, and Lottery Corporation, as well as improved payout ratios from Chorus, Commonwealth Bank, and Independence Group. Additionally, South32, Brambles, and Aurizon conducted buybacks,” noted Birtles.

“Conversely, several companies reduced their payout ratios, which unfortunately signals earnings stress. Companies such as Mineral Resources, Dexus, and Insignia were among those taking this action.”

Martin Currie has updated its income scorecard to reflect broker revisions post-reporting season and to track how companies have met dividend expectations over the last 12 months. It also analyses how dividend growth projections have changed and assessing if these stocks provide inflation protection.

“Our analysis highlighted the resource sector as an area of concern for income. While the sector delivered strong dividends relative to expectations over the past year, the outlook is now much more challenging, with most future dividend downgrades in this sector,” Birtles said. “Woodside, in particular, is a concern due to its M&A decision to invest in two new U.S. projects, which is putting pressure on its ability to maintain strong dividend payouts.”

“The banking sector also delivered solid earnings and reasonable dividends over the last 12 months. However, there’s been no change in forecasts due to stagnant underlying growth. For instance, Commonwealth Bank’s share price has surged in the past year, but with flat dividends, future yields have dropped significantly, leaving it below the bond yield—no longer qualifying as a strong dividend stock.”

———-
Notes:
[1] Source: Factset.

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Felicity Walsh

Franklin Templeton specialist investment manager Martin Currie has been selected to manage an Equity Income mandate available on the Colonial First State FirstChoice platform.

“We are pleased to be awarded this mandate and recognised for our expertise in managing income-generating funds,” Franklin Templeton Managing Director, Australia and New Zealand, Felicity Walsh, said.

The appointment follows the announcement in April that the incumbent manager – First Sentier Investors (FSI) – would close all its Australian-based global credit, Australian fixed income, equity income and emerging companies’ teams.

“This appointment is a testament to the Martin Currie team’s unique investment approach that aligns stock selection and portfolio construction with the income needs of Australian clients, ” Walsh said.

The Martin Currie Equity Income Fund has a Recommended rating from Lonsec and a Highly Recommended rating from Zenith. It seeks to provide an after-tax income yield above the S&P/ASX 200 Index yield and grow that income above the rate of inflation.

“The Martin Currie Equity Income Fund aims to identify the most attractive income opportunities by combining extensive bottom-up fundamental and quantitative research with disciplined portfolio construction,” Reece Birtles, Chief Investment Officer at Martin Currie Australia, said.

“We also manage it in a tax-aware manner to maximise the benefit from franking credits for investors with a low or zero marginal tax rate,” he added.

Martin Currie embeds an “active ownership” approach into the investment process. In its engagement with companies the fund manager focusses on both materiality and ESG outcomes at the companies it invests in.

“We believe ESG analysis, engagement and voting should be done by those making investment decisions rather than being outsourced. Our research analysts and portfolio managers are best equipped to understand the ESG risks, opportunities, and impacts facing the companies they invest in, ” Birtles said.

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Reece Birtles

Although a consensus ‘Goldilocks’ view prevails for Australia’s economy, analysis of the latest reporting season reveals that a hard landing is still a very real possibility, according to Reece Birtles, chief investment officer at Martin Currie Australia.

Commenting in the bi-annual reporting season paper Birtles says “After digesting the latest information from reporting season results and company meetings our analysis of the data and management commentary is that there is more pain ahead, and the path is edging closer to a hard landing,”

“The deteriorating state of the consumer, flatlining retail sales and falling company cashflows are the biggest risks to the downside. And the relief that things were ‘not as bad as feared’ has masked the extent of this deterioration,” he says.

It’s important to realise that at 1.5 per cent per annum, Australia’s real GDP in 2023 was the third worst annual reading in 30 years, worse even than during the GFC, but ahead of the 2020’s Covid and 2000 post-tech bubble.

The biggest clue on the direction of consumer health and spending, and therefore the economy, is the savings rate. While consumers had excess savings through Covid and were able to build up a buffer, the savings rate is now almost negative as people are eating into these buffers due to higher rates and prices.

“With these buffers almost gone, the real stress is now likely to show which will also reveal itself in falling cash flows for companies,” Birtle says.

This environment will be favourable for Australian stocks with defensive earnings, robust cash flows, strong balance sheets and cost control in sectors like Telcos, Healthcare, Insurance and Infrastructure.

“For some time, we had positioned our portfolios for the hard landing scenario. We have lowered the beta of our portfolios and are focused on companies that can grow earnings and dividends and have lower valuation risk,” notes Birtles.

“Medibank Private is a good example of this, with earnings stability and resilience from a superior industry position, light capital intensity and high cash flow resulting in consistently strong profit margins. We think that defensive inflation protection or stagflation protection is going to be quite important in a hard or soft landing scenario.

“Stocks like Telstra Group, an essential service, and Aurizon Holdings excel in that protection with very resilient volumes and good pricing power, and in the case of Aurizon, inflation-linked returns.

“Under a no-landing, stronger for longer growth theme with higher rates, exposures to insurance stocks such as QBE Insurance Group and Suncorp Group do offer positive leverage.

“In all scenarios we also want to own names such as Worley, which we think has a compelling exposure to the energy transition, with 80% of their new business now in sustainability-type work in resources.”

Reece adds “Importantly, our views are formed not just from crunching the numbers released by companies during reporting season but from real engagement with executives on the ground.

“Over the four-week reporting period, our investment team conducted more than 100 meetings with company management teams following the release of results, and this on-the-ground research has helped us to refine our investment views and outlook.

“In summary, we believe that now is the time for investors to evaluate the balance in their portfolios. It is important for investors to be discerning in their stock picking and focus on the companies which have pricing power, resilient volumes, and capacity to manage margins, while avoiding stocks with valuation risk.”

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David Sheasby

Martin Currie, the active equity specialist with AUD $31 billion in assets under management, as of December 31 2023, has been awarded the highest possible rating by the Principles of Responsible Investment (PRI), the world’s leading proponent of responsible investing.

Martin Currie was awarded a five-star rating across all categories relevant to its investment activities.

“This independent endorsement of Martin Currie’s approach to sustainability is a result of our collaborative investor-led model of stewardship and implementation of industry best practices,” said David Sheasby, Martin Currie’s Head of Stewardship and Sustainability.

The recognition of the firm’s global active stewardship efforts extends to Melbourne-based Martin Currie Australia (MCA), where investors can access 15 strategies across multi-sector, Australian and global equities through managed funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Reece Birtles, Chief Investment Officer for MCA, said, “Since becoming signatories in 2009, we have made significant advancements in our environmental, social and governance capabilities and our interactions with ASX-listed companies.

“We are constantly looking at new ways to improve and bring a greater awareness to our investee companies of social issues such as First Nations people, work safety, modern slavery and data privacy, alongside environmental issues such as net zero and biodiversity, and best practice on governance,” Birtles said.

Martin Currie’s PRI Ratings

In 2023, Martin Currie achieved 5-star ratings across the PRI’s modules, which includes the ‘Public Governance and Strategy,’ and ‘Confidence building measures’ modules that apply to all asset managers. It also received a five-star rating in the category of ‘Direct – Listed equity- Active Fundamental,’ which is specific to the equity asset class.

A signatory to the PRI since 2009, Martin Currie employs an active approach to stewardship. This means the investment teams are directly responsible for stewardship and sustainability analysis, engagement and voting. Martin Currie’s philosophy of active stewardship is that investment decision-makers are best equipped to understand the risk and opportunities that arise from sustainability issues. Martin Currie’s investment teams employ engagement and proxy voting as powerful tools to bring about positive change at both the company and industry level.

Additionally, Martin Currie’s commitment and approach to transparency and reporting these activities to clients has contributed to their ratings from the PRI. Martin Currie was awarded the highest possible ratings of A+ from the PRI in the 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 calendar years. In 2021, the firm was awarded two 5-star ratings and one 4-star rating reflecting the new and revised reporting framework.

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Reece Birtles

Martin Currie Australia, part of Franklin Templeton, has released its recent outlook paper on what has shaped the Australian market in 2023 and provide fundamental insight into the Australian equities landscape for 2024.

Reece Birtles, Chief Investment Officer of Martin Currie says “Further resilience in employment may support soft landing thesis established in recent market action”.

He adds, “Forward price -to-earnings ratio (P/E) for Australia is much lower than for global markets”.

In terms of expectations on earnings and dividend growth, Birtle says “Unfortunately, the outlook for dividend growth is dominated by this poor earnings growth outlook, even though Australian company balance sheets are generally strong and payout ratios are modest versus history. As a result, being selective in stock picking for income and growth is as important as ever.

“We expect that higher-quality, more defensive businesses that have pricing power to pass through inflationary impacts into their revenue stream will be better placed to grow dividends in the current environment. We note that inflation-linked mechanisms can often take time to flow through to revenues, so we see that positive impacts of past inflation can benefit returns for some time after inflation does slow.”

Looking at the Australian market, Birtles notes it “remains attractively valued”.

“Compared to the rest of the world, our view is that consensus EPS forecasts for Australian stocks have already digested more of the economic slowing, while global (especially US) EPS forecasts remain at cycle highs. Given the economic outlook of slowing inflation and growth, and the prospect of rate cuts, we expect EPS to be under pressure everywhere in 2024.

“At the same time, the forward Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for Australia is much lower than that for global markets. Therefore, we see better value in the more discounted Australian market. There appears to be a contradiction between the economic growth pessimism of falling bond yields and the optimism of rising equity market P/E ratios.”

Birtles adds, “Within the attractively valued Australian market, we continue to see a wide dispersion between Growth-and Value-style stocks. This valuation dispersion narrowed in 2021-2022 on higher rates, but since the peak rate narrative and excitement around AI kicked off in March 2023, the valuation dispersion has again widened.

“Our view is that the greater the valuation dispersion between typical value stocks and growth stocks, the greater the excess return opportunity for a disciplined valuation investment approach.”

Read the report.

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Alastair Reynolds

Back in the 80s, an American fast food chain made the memorable slogan, “Where’s the beef?” to imply that its competitors were not providing enough substance – in this case – beef!

In this update on the Emerging Markets (EM) Martin Currie, an active equity manager and part of Franklin Templeton, lays out why EM is a compelling asset class story.

“The question we get most often is “what’s the catalyst that’s going to drive EM forward?” In this case, we’d like to use this easy to remember analogy and highlight “the beef” for the asset class-earnings growth,” says Alastair Reynolds, Portfolio Manager Martin Currie.

“What’s also interesting about EM earnings is how critical it is for driving asset class performance throughout longer-term cycles.

“When we look at EM’s performance versus Developed Markets (DM) over the long term, we see that relative earnings growth is a major driver of EM’s outperformance. For example, the 35-year earnings per share (EPS) compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the US has been 6.4%.

“What we’ve observed historically is that during strong outperformance periods for EM equities, the earnings growth is double-digit (strong on both an absolute and relative basis). Fortunately, we are right at a key turning point and the case for EM earnings outpacing DM is strong, in our view. It’s driven by higher growth rates (GDP) and less margin pressure as inflationary forces abate.

“Furthermore, for technology companies in EM, it’s also supported by strong market positioning and structural growth drivers such as artificial intelligence (AI). As shown In Figure 1, emerging markets are expected to deliver higher earnings growth (relative to DM) over the next 12 and 24 months. In particular, the major EM constituents – China, India, South Korea, and Taiwan are set to deliver explosive earnings growth over the next 2 years.

Divergence between earnings and share prices in China

Reynolds adds “Recently we have observed strong earnings delivery from two key areas in the Chinese stock market: 1) Chinese digital economy stocks and 2) Chinese financials – namely insurance companies. There is a positive divergence between fundamental earnings delivery (relative to MSCI EM) and the stock performance (relative to MSCI EM) using the two largest Chinese benchmark holdings in the MSCI EM (Tencent and Alibaba).

“When we see such a divergence between share prices and stock earnings, we view this as an opportunity for fundamental, bottom-up investors. We have increasing confidence in the profitability of these quality growth companies in EM.”

Where’s the growth?

“While acknowledging the difficulty of predicting growth in 2023, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has just published its forecasts for DM and EM. The IMF expects that EM will outgrow the advanced economies, forecasting 4.0% GDP growth for EM and 1.2% for DM. Global growth is estimated at just under 3.0% for 2023. Within that, China and India are expected to be key drivers of this, contributing to approximately 50% of that growth projection.”

Where’s the valuation?

“Given this combination of GDP/macro growth and earnings growth, EM offers a once in a generation opportunity in terms of a reasonable absolute and relative valuation. The asset class is trading at a 35% discount to MSCI World. Using a medium-term outlook, MSCI EM Index is trading at 10x P/E versus the MSCI World Index at 15x.

“The beef may have been in DM over the past decade, but that does not mean it will continue and the current backdrop in EM looks exciting. With superior GDP growth expectations, trading at discounted valuations, and the expectations for stronger earnings growth going forward, it’s clear to us the beef is now in EM,” notesReynolds.

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