Nick Griffin

We are two to three years into a global AI boom, not a bubble, according to Munro Partners founding partner and chief investment officer, Nick Griffin.

“When I hear the word bubble, I hear valuation bubble. The last time we saw this type of bubble was in 1999, and that was a valuation bubble,” Griffin says.

“The NASDAQ actually went up more than 90 per cent that year.”

But Griffin points out the NASDAQ is up less than 20 per cent this year and the biggest companies in the S&P today, like Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), are trading at price-to-earnings (PEs) in the mid-twenties not the 99-to-100-times earnings which were seen during the tech bubble.

“It doesn’t feel like we’re in a valuation bubble. I think what people are questioning is whether we are actually in an AI spending bubble?” he says.

Spending on AI might be high, but that doesn’t necessarily equate to a spending bubble. Griffin suggests that the adoption of AI needs to be compared to the smartphone cycle.

“When the smartphone came along, there were hundreds of Apps on your phone that actually made the smartphone functional. Apps such as Uber, Spotify, Facebook, Google, or even Qantas, allowed users to perform tasks from their phones. The proliferation of all of those apps is what basically drove Apple to become the biggest company in the world because the device was so useful.”

He says AI is going to be very similar, with thousands of Apps being developed using AI technology, either for programming, or the likes of ChatGPT, Microsoft’s Copilot and Google’s Gemini. All of the Apps need to run through the AI large language models, which in turn, all need to run on the cloud.

As a result, Griffin says, cloud demand has accelerated with Azure growing 40 per cent, Amazon growth in the mid-twenties and new entrants like Oracle becoming cloud providers. The cloud providers must then buy more semiconductors to manage increasing demand.

“Hyperscalers are spending all this money and investing in the infrastructure, because they are getting the demand signals from all of these applications that are using AI,” Griffin says.

“So, the simple way to think about this is, demand is basically exceeding supply.”

As the use cases of AI continue to grow and people continue to use the services, AI companies will need to build more capacity to meet demand, which means the outlook for companies involved in the industry, from the applications to the semiconductors, is still robust.

“If companies are going to spend trillions building out AI infrastructure, our job is to invest in the companies that enable that construction, because that’s trillions of revenue for those companies,” Griffin says.

Griffin runs Munro Partners’ Munro Global Growth Fund and Munro Concentrated Global Growth Fund and is also responsible for the formulation and implementation of the fund manager’s proprietary investment process.

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Damien McIntyre

Munro Partners, a leading global equity investment manager, has launched its first Separately Managed Account (SMA) on the Praemium platform.

The Munro Global Growth Equity SMA will be managed by Munro’s experienced portfolio management team led by chief investment officer, Nick Griffin, offering a concentrated long-only portfolio of Munro’s best ideas. The Munro Global Growth Equity SMA will typically hold 25-35 listed global equities, applying Munro’s unique stop loss review framework and their focus on structural growth winners.

Damien McIntyre, CEO of GSFM which is Munro Partner’s distribution partner in Australia, says the launch of the SMA gives investors another way to access Munro’s long only ideas, providing access to some of the most innovative and fastest growing companies in the world today.

“We see a great opportunity to broaden reach and accessibility to our fund manager partner’s strategies. The Munro Global Growth Equity SMA will allow brokers and financial advisers to invest directly in an actively managed global growth portfolio, for greater investment transparency, as well as cost and tax efficiencies.

“The teams at Praemium and GSFM collaborated closely to facilitate the transition and develop a compelling offering for the Australian market,” Mr McIntyre said.

CIO of Munro Partners, Nick Griffin says this milestone marks a significant expansion of Munro’s offering, bringing its Global Growth Equity SMA strategy to a broader investor base through Praemium’s managed account platform.

“As investor appetite for global equities continues to grow, we see SMAs as an ideal vehicle to deliver our high-conviction strategy in a scalable and transparent format.

“Praemium’s platform enables us to provide seamless access while preserving the flexibility and control that today’s advisers and investors demand. This partnership represents the natural evolution of our commitment to delivering exceptional global investment solutions through a truly scalable and transparent SMA offering,” said Mr Griffin.

Praemium is currently the only platform offering this SMA capability for Munro Partners in Australia, reinforcing its position as a leader in managed account innovation.

“We’re thrilled that Munro Partners has chosen Praemium to support the launch of its first SMA,” said Damian Cilmi, head of investment managers & governance at Praemium.

“Munro’s reputation for global equity excellence and its disciplined, forward-looking approach makes it an ideal partner. This launch underscores the strength of our SMA capability and Praemium’s commitment to delivering differentiated, high-quality investment options to advisers and their clients.”

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James Tsinidis

The case to invest in electric vehicle (EV) producers could be falling away as supply increases, highlighting that not all clean energy investments are created equal. Emerging opportunities are coming from companies improving energy efficiency and managing waste, according to James Tsinidis, portfolio manager, Munro Partners.

“In recent times, the investment case for investing in EV manufacturers has fallen. Even before the anti-Musk Tesla backlash occurred, a combination of oversupply, slowing demand, and aggressive competition from China was putting pressure on car makers such as Tesla, making investments less compelling in the short term,” he says.

In terms of clean energy production, renewable sources like solar and wind are well established, and with more producers, competition is increasing as are supply chain risks. Mr Tsinidis says that on the other hand, nuclear energy is seeing a resurgence as a reliable, carbon-free baseload power source.

“Beyond clean energy generation, a compelling investment opportunity lies in electrification enablers or those companies providing grid upgrades, energy storage, and infrastructure solutions that allow renewables and nuclear to integrate seamlessly and efficiently into the energy system.

“Energy efficiency has done more to reduce emissions in the US over the past decade than renewables, yet it remains one of the most overlooked areas of climate investment. Unlike energy production, efficiency solutions reduce demand altogether, cutting costs and emissions in the process.

“As a result, energy efficiency solutions represent one of the fastest-growing and most financially attractive areas of climate investment. At the same time, industrial energy efficiency is becoming a major investment theme. Technologies such as industrial process optimisation, heat pumps, and waste heat recovery are improving operational efficiency in manufacturing, logistics, and data centres,” he says.

In terms of other opportunities, Mr Tsinidis says reducing waste to increase sustainability is becoming a focus for investors.

“The transition to a sustainable economy is also about redefining how we use materials. The circular economy focuses on reducing waste, increasing recycling, and creating more sustainable production systems.

“Plastics, industrial waste, and water scarcity present some of the biggest environmental challenges today. Companies involved in waste management, advanced recycling, and water treatment solutions are seeing rising demand, particularly as corporate and government policies push for higher sustainability standards in packaging and industrial processes,” says Mr Tsinidis.

Beyond waste management, the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping global energy consumption. According to Mr Tsinidis, AI workloads are significantly more power-intensive than traditional computing, and as businesses deploy AI at scale, data centre electricity demand is set to surge.

“Data centres already contribute over 2.5 per cent of global emissions, a figure set to rise as AI infrastructure expands. Rather than slowing decarbonisation efforts, AI could increase the urgency of the energy transition, forcing companies to scale clean energy investment and grid infrastructure faster than previously expected.

“Additionally, AI is playing a role in energy efficiency and grid optimisation. Machine learning models are being used to improve electricity demand forecasting, enhance battery storage performance, and increase the efficiency of industrial and building energy systems. While AI is accelerating the need for clean power, it is also emerging as a key enabler of smarter energy use,” he says.

According to Mr Tsinidis, the direction towards decarbonisation is clear, whether through energy infrastructure, efficiency technologies, or resource management solutions.

“Long-term investors, who position early, will be well placed for the next phase of growth as the world accelerates toward a low-carbon future,” he says.

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Qiao Ma

Munro Partners portfolio manager Qiao Ma predicts 2025 will be a pivotal year for artificial intelligence (AI), and the role it plays in companies of all sizes, particularly those outside the traditional technology sector.

Qiao Ma’s comments follow her recent research trip to Chicago which focused on identifying fast-growth companies within many of their key Areas of Interest such Climate, Security and Innovative Health.

“While AI has been a dominant investment theme recently, its benefits are broadening beyond large tech companies,” Qiao Ma says.

“We’re seeing smaller, innovative companies leverage AI in transformative ways, creating significant growth potential.”

Qiao Ma met with numerous companies at the forefront of AI innovation. She cites AeroVironment, a small defence company that focuses on unmanned surveillance and ammunitioned vehicles and says: “AeroVironment’s equipment does not require extensive training for human operators; its software solutions, enabled by AI, are very intuitive and easy to use.

She also met with RadNet, a leading diagnostic imaging service provider, which uses AI to improve cancer detection accuracy.

“These are just two examples of how AI is revolutionising diverse industries,” she explains. “We believe this trend will accelerate in the coming years, creating compelling investment opportunities across a range of sectors.”

Qiao Ma also observed growing momentum behind the “Made in America” theme.  She says there is an industrial renaissance in the US, and believes that robotics and automation will play a crucial role in revitalising American manufacturing by mitigating labour cost concerns.

“Robotics is key to enabling companies to compete globally while maintaining production in the US,” she says.

She emphasises the opportunities of investing in companies focused on grid capability and energy transition. “The world is facing an escalating energy challenge,” she says. “Companies that are developing solutions to modernise our energy infrastructure and accelerate the transition to clean power will be critical to meeting this demand.”

Qiao Ma says her research trip reinforces her conviction that diligent analysis of small and mid-cap companies can uncover exceptional investment opportunities.

“Many of these companies are overlooked or misunderstood by the broader market,” she says. “By identifying those with robust earnings growth potential and innovative business models, investors can potentially achieve significant returns.”

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Nick Griffin

Munro Partners has won Best Australian Based Global Equity Manager at the 2024 Australian Fund Manager Awards.

The Australian Fund Manager Awards is in its 25th year. The awards celebrate excellence in funds management while making a meaningful impact through philanthropy.

Munro Partners founder and CIO, Nick Griffin says the award win acknowledges the team’s persistence in building high-performing funds that provide positive returns for its investors.

“Our philosophy is based on finding long-term winners by identifying sustainable growth trends that are under-appreciated, not well understood and mis-priced by the market. This gives us the foundation to find those few great structurally growing companies and build a portfolio of winning stocks, that generate strong fund returns over time.

“Our investment team has a proven track record of delivering strong returns for investors, thanks to the calibre and expertise of each of the members. They have all played an important role in building and managing these portfolios to be high performing funds,” he said.

The Munro Global Growth Fund returned 34 per cent net in the 2024 financial year.

Damien McIntyre, CEO of GSFM – the distributor of Munro funds in the Australian market -said this win highlights the strength and expertise of the Munro Partners team.

“The team has an unwavering conviction that finding tomorrow’s winners comes from understanding how and why the world is changing, and investing to benefit from this – and its investment track record bears this out,” said Mr McIntyre.

Munro Partners was a finalist for the International Equities – Alternative Strategies category at the 2024 Zenith Fund Awards and in September 2024, won the Global Equity (above $500 million) category at the With Intelligence HFM APAC Performance Awards in Hong Kong.

Founded in 2016, Munro Partners is a global growth fund manager focused on investing in international equities. It manages the Munro Global Growth Fund, Munro Climate Change Leaders Fund, Munro Concentrated Global Growth Fund and Munro Global Growth Small & Mid Cap Fund.

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In summary, it says data centres are key to unlocking the promise of artificial intelligence (AI), but they require a lot of electricity. One estimate suggests that data centres, through the consumption of electricity, have a greater carbon footprint than aviation. Additionally, given the growth in AI-led demand, according to industry research, they are forecast to consume between 6.5% and 7.5% of US electricity (up from just 2.5% in 2022).

For the cloud providers, including Amazon’s AWS, managing their electricity needs while achieving their climate change goals – including net zero by 2040 for Amazon – becomes increasingly challenging.

During Munro’s in-person engagement with Amazon in March, it discussed how AWS is innovating to secure reliable carbon-free power. Amazon discussed its recent acquisition of a site at Talen Energy’s Susquehanna nuclear power plant, the first deal of its kind, to provide carbon-free baseload power. Munro also discussed Amazon’s status as the largest corporate purchaser of renewables PPAs (power purchase agreements), helping them towards their goal to secure 100% renewable energy by 2030. Munro indicated its support for these efforts.

Munro expects and is positioned for other innovative announcements not just from Amazon, but also cloud-provider peers Google and Microsoft – all of which have ambitious climate change goals. The recent announcement of Microsoft securing over 10GW of Brookfield’s renewables pipeline is another example. It is worth noting that these climate change goals were set before the AI-led rush for power, so they have become increasingly difficult to achieve. Munro will continue to monitor whether these companies can maintain their ambition. Overall, while its energy needs are rapidly increasing, Munro rates Amazon highly in its ESG analysis due to Amazon’s commitment to carbon-free power and their status as the largest corporate purchaser of PPAs.

The report also presents case studies on Costco’s supply chain emissions, and Munro’s engagement on safety disclosures and pay at founder-led companies.

Read the report.

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Qiao Ma

Nvidia’s dominance in the artificial intelligence (AI) processing unit (GPU) market isn’t a solo act. While Nvidia has grabbed the headlines with its powerful H100 chip, a network of suppliers is silently reaping the rewards according to Qiao Ma, partner & lead portfolio manager of the Munro Global Growth Small & Mid Cap Fund, Munro Partners.

Nvidia’s H100 GPU is the most powerful GPU chip on the market and is designed specifically for AI applications. The H100 contains 80 billion transistors, which is six times faster than its predecessor, Nvidia’s A100 chip.^[1]

According to Ms Ma, Nvidia’s H100 GPU is like a multi-lane highway, boasting thousands of ‘lanes’ called cores. This translates to lightning-fast AI tasks like image recognition, language translation, video editing, etc. This phenomenal performance has created a surge in demand, benefitting not just Nvidia, but the entire supply chain.

“The H100 features specialised lanes dedicated to specific types of data, like images or text. This specialised approach boosts efficiency, allowing the H100 to handle complex AI tasks such as self-driving cars, medical diagnosis systems and other AI-powered applications.”

While Nvidia has grabbed the spotlight, numerous other companies are key to their production and are benefitting from the GPU maker’s strong sales. From specialised power delivery systems being made by Monolithic Power, to intricate cooling solutions inside the data centres made by Vertiv, each element contributes to the functionality of Nvidia’s chips. Most of these suppliers have seen the AI-related portion of their revenues and profits soar over the past few quarters, and Ma thinks it is just the start.

“It can help to think of Nvidia’s GPU as a dedicated express lane for data, enabling faster information flow compared to traditional memory architecture. This speed boost is crucial for handling the massive data demands of AI tasks. These memory chips are made by SK Hynix,” said Ms Ma.

“Importantly, the H100 features innovative chip stacking. Imagine multiple microprocessors layered on top of each other, working together. This miniaturisation allows for more computer processing power within a compact space, which is crucial for maximising performance and efficiency of GPUs. The continued development of advanced chip manufacturing will rely heavily on specialised technologies like BESI’s hybrid bonding and ASMI’s atomic layer deposition,” she said.

Nvidia’s H100 also requires intricate connections between hundreds of components, demanding microscopic precision. “Companies like Onto Innovation and Camtek play a crucial role in this stage, using specialised metrology techniques to ensure everything is perfectly aligned and free of defects. These companies might not be household names, but their contributions are vital to the H100’s success,” she said.

“Munro anticipates the aggressive pace of interest rises will subside in 2024, and in which case, we believe it will be a good environment for growth companies such as these semiconductor suppliers, as well as Nvidia. In such an environment, companies will go back to following their earnings, which is what the Munro team spend most of our time researching and investigating.”

Munro Partners is capturing growth in the artificial intelligence hardware and semiconductor supply chain investment opportunity through its Munro Global Growth Small & Mid Cap Fund, with ASM International and Onto Innovation as two of the Fund’s top five holdings as at 31 March 2024.

———-

Notes:
[1] https://www.weforum.org/videos/what-is-h100-gpu-chip-ai-nvidia/#:~:text=The%20H100%20is%20a%20graphics,its%20predecessor%2C%20the%20A100%20chip.

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Nick Griffin

The biggest companies in the S&P 500 all grew earnings in 2023 after large structural changes accelerated technology earnings, and this is likely to continue in 2024, led by semiconductor designer Nvidia, which could eventually one day overtake Apple to become the world’s largest company, according to Nick Griffin, CIO of Munro Partners.

High-performance computing companies drove gains in the US stock market in 2023, triggered by the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution. Nvidia led those gains, with its earnings up nearly 400 per cent for 2023 while its stock price has gained around 235 per cent as at 13 December 2023. Nvidia is the world’s most important producer of graphics processing units (GPUs), which enable artificial intelligence (AI) processing. Other technology companies, too, such as Microsoft (up 56 per cent), Google owner Alphabet (up 49 per cent) and Amazon (up 73 per cent) have been able to boost their earnings considerably, driving up their stock prices.

“The big moral of the story for 2023 is that earnings growth drove stock prices, and as soon as interest rates stopped going up, stocks went back to following their earnings.

“We see no reason why that’s not going to continue in 2024. We think this is the iPhone moment for AI,” Griffin said.

“Apple became the biggest company in the world, helped by the launch of the iPhone. Now, if we see a 10-times growth in demand for semiconductors, we think Nvidia will potentially one day become the biggest company in the world.

“The logic is clear enough: the demand for computer chips will become more and more as we move to an increasingly digital world. Innumerable generative AI models are being launched following the introduction of ChatGPT last year. Every time an AI application gets used, it increases revenue for cloud providers and semiconductor companies led by Nvidia.

“Businesses will need all of their data to run on the cloud, and then the cloud providers are going to increase capital spending to support these AI products, and a large chunk of that capital spending is going to end up with Nvidia, which handles the AI processing,” said Griffin.

According to Griffin, it’s not just Nvidia, but the whole semiconductor supply chain that will benefit from the growing use of AI, including Europe’s largest technology company ASML, which makes the machines that produce some of the world’s most advanced computer chips, and Taiwan’s Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC), the world’s largest foundry or manufacturer of computer chips.

Semiconductors have gone from earning next to nothing in sales in 1977 to expected sales of roughly a trillion US dollars in 2030, with the launch of ChatGPT accelerating semiconductor sales. The chart below shows the forecast increase.

Apart from semiconductor companies, software companies like Microsoft benefit from the AI revolution. “We think software companies are also the biggest winners here. Microsoft is selling their CoPilot product at roughly an additional US$30 per user, which is effectively a huge revenue opportunity for this company,” he said.

The Munro Global Growth Fund invests in semiconductor and software stocks that are driving the AI revolution. Nvidia is the Fund’s biggest holding, accounting for 6.88 per cent of fund assets as at 31 December 2023, followed by Amazon at 6.86 per cent of the portfolio. Cloud service provider Microsoft was another top holding at 5.8 per cent.

Other sectors expected to grow strongly in 2024 include energy efficiency and sustainability companies, such as companies producing nuclear energy, Griffin says.

“Nuclear energy is slowly coming back into vogue. We saw this recently at the COP28 conference in Dubai, with 22 world leaders committed to triple nuclear capacity globally by 2050 compared with 2020 levels. Nuclear energy is the cleanest way to solve the carbon emissions problem,” he said.

Munro’s investment strategies include the Munro Climate Change Leaders Fund, which has exposure to nuclear energy through the stock Constellation Energy, which is a top-performing stock for the fund manager’s climate area of interest this year, given its importance in clean energy production.

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Qiao Ma

Munro Partners has launched a global growth small and mid cap fund. The fund will be managed by Lead Portfolio Manager Qiao Ma.

The Munro Partners Global Growth Small and Mid Cap Fund invests in global growth oriented small and medium companies, with a market capitalisation between USD 250 million and USD 30 billion. The fund will typically hold 20 to 40 listed equities, and aims to achieve a return, after fees, exceeding the MSCI ACWI SMID CAP Index (Net) in $A over a rolling 5 to 7 year period.

Ms Ma says that the fund seeks to invest in today’s most innovative and fastest growing small and medium capitalisation companies in the world and will apply Munro’s proprietary investment philosophy and process.

“The fund is designed for investors seeking long term exposure to a concentrated portfolio of high quality global growth oriented small and medium capitalisation equities with the potential for capital growth.   The recent underperformance of small and mid-cap indexes also provide attractive opportunities to invest in a portfolio of high quality and fast growing companies.” Ms. Ma said

“The Munro Global Growth Small and Mid Cap Fund represents a natural progression for Munro, building upon our established expertise. Many of the stocks we are targeting in this fund are already part of the Munro universe. However, they often remain underappreciated due to their smaller size or lower liquidity, making them less suitable for our other investment strategies. With this fund, we are introducing a dedicated portfolio to harness the potential of these smaller yet equally promising opportunities.

“Our team follows the processes of identifying sustainable growth trends and structural themes within the global market that are frequently undervalued or overlooked by the broader market. Leveraging this expertise, the fund will implement the same rigorous risk management processes and utilize the same network that has been the hallmark of success for our existing funds.”

GSFM is the responsible entity and distributor of the Munro Global Growth Small and Mid Cap Fund in the Australian and New Zealand markets.

GSFM chief executive officer, Damien McIntyre said the launch of the Global Growth Small and Mid Cap Fund complements the range of funds currently distributed by GSFM.

“There is definitely demand in the Australian market for accessibility to the global small and mid cap asset class.

“Having an experienced and talented fund manager, like Qiao, manage the strategy and investment team, will be a real advantage.

“For Australian investors and advisers, being able to access a global equities fund that is managed entirely by a successful Australian-based team with a positive track record will appeal to many looking to further diversify their portfolios,” says Mr McIntyre.

The minimum initial investment in the fund is $10,000.

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Kieran Moore

Companies that enable digital payments are set to grow their earnings in a meaningful way in the medium to long term, according to partner and portfolio manager at Munro Partners, Kieran Moore.

The shift from cash transactions to digital transactions in the form of a card, credit or debit, has taken off in the past several years, presenting compelling investment opportunities.

Moore says that there are four drivers of digital payments on a global scale. They are tap-and-go payments, e-commerce, emerging markets and business-to-business transactions.

“The proliferation of tap-and-go payments has caused an inflection point in the evolution of digital payments, with consumer behaviour towards cashless transactions changing markedly.

“Previously, consumers tended to use cash to settle payments for small transactions such as buying a coffee or paying for parking. This is no longer the case and the digital payments have expanded markedly,” says Moore,

“The growth of e-commerce has also driven this change. The move from offline to online has provided these digital payment providers with another source of revenue as consumers shift to online shopping.”

Moore says digital payments in emerging markets have yet to meaningfully take off, but it is only a matter of time before they do, and this will be an area of future growth.

“Emerging markets are still predominantly cash societies, and like we have seen in other markets such as Australia, over time these markets will begin to adopt digital payments on an increasing scale.

“Business-to-business transactions, as well, have yet to be fully tapped into by digital payments, providing another potential area for future growth and expansion by digital payment companies.

“In the business world there are trillions of dollars in business-to-business transactions of which only a small fraction are currently digital.

“There is a lot of room to grow these earnings for those digital payment companies that can enable these business-to-business transactions to happen in their environment,” says Moore.

Moore say both Visa and Mastercard are stocks that Munro Partners continues to hold as they have been able to grow their revenue at double digits, and grow earnings at mid-teen levels for a long period of time.

“We believe they can keep growing their earnings in the mid-teens in the medium to long term.

“Every new dollar that enters the digital space that is processed on the Visa or Mastercard rails has an almost 100 per cent incremental margin, or in other words, for Visa and Mastercard, there is very little cost associated with taking on new digital payment volume.  And that is their role in making that transition from cash to digital possible,” says Moore.

Other digital payment players such as PayPal and Block are also supporting the infrastructure for this transition to happen.

“Today, for a young person entering the financial system, it is possible to by-pass a bank and set up your entire financial life outside of a mortgage in a digital account or wallet.

“Take for example PayPal. It allows users to buy goods and services online, make transactions in local and foreign currency and even get paid a salary, like a standard bank account.

“As these digital payments evolve, we believe that over time banks will lose more and more market share as the world shifts to going cashless,” concludes Moore.

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