Stephen Innes

Trade War Escalates, but the sky hasn’t fallen just yet as optimism crept back into the market on reports of fresh bilateral trade negotiations between China and the US, coupled with a slightly firmer RMB scrim.

“Where there is a will, there is a way”. But when it comes to backroom negotiations, one can only imagine that talk is not going to come cheap.

The broader market continues to remain in wait and see mode for further details on how China might retaliate on trade, while equity markets continue to press higher under the guise that “no escalating news is good news”. Indeed equity markets continued to retrace the sharp mid-week sell-off. But again, the US technology sector comes shining through as US internet and technology stalwarts are leading markets to a solid finish in Thursday’s New York session.

While investors could be breathing a sigh of relief, they’re probably just happy their investment portfolios are breathing and alive and kicking after the latest trade war episode. But even the most pessimistic investors must take note of just how enduringly bullish these markets are, after having everything thrown at them including the kitchen sink (Trade, Italy Germany, Long Bond Rates). It’s incredible what global bourses have withstood from all l this harmful noise and continue to march higher. But indeed, the solid foundation of a bull market is that it ignores the bad news and keep on grinding higher. A one can only imagine what levels the S&P would be trading if trade war fizzled out.

Speaking of bull markets, USDJPY continues to grind higher and perhaps a bit of the above is starting to factor in (i.e. ignore the bad news and keeps moving higher). The break above 111.75 was one of the most unambiguous signals in some time, and a move into the 113’s could trigger an unwind in longer-term structural risk-off (long JPY) positions which could see this current rally extend much higher.

And the NATO summit ended on a more cheerful note, with President Trump reaffirming his commitment to the alliance while focusing more closely on the financial obligations of the other countries. So, the market is happy to hear the NATO band marching on.

Oil market

The oil markets are trying to make some inroads after Wednesday’s spill, but are having trouble holding both tops and momentum. I think this is a one-part trade war and one-part supply coming back online. But Wednesday was one of those steep selloffs on record volumes that will give even the bravest of bull’s cause pause for thought about holding longs positions, especially into the weekend. On the supply front, the latest news from Libya is short-term bearish with the El Feel or Elephant field restarting for the first time since February, and there is some discussion suggesting the supply rebound could increase and more than offset the impacts from the Eastern port closures.

Gold market

The precious space continues to hold critical support at $1,240, but the Gold complex is still hovering in the mixed territory zone. The global equity market is bouncing higher overnight, and there are very few defensive allocations into Gold. However, with Fed Chair Powell not ringing any alarm bells for more aggressive fed tightening, gold picked up a bit of goodwill. But ultimately, the USD looks to be on solid footing while preparing to take the driver seat once again, especially on USDJPY, which should hold the gold bulls at bay.

Currency Market

The USD is looking to get back in in the driving seat once again.

JPY: USDJPY is signalling the most significant break out in years, and the long USDJPY is a position severely under-owned which suggests the pair will explode higher on any positive news. One can only imagine spot will trade if an intense wave of risk on kicks in or trade war fizzles out.

CNH: The Yuan remains at the centre of all the action, but with further signs of policy easing on the cards given the economic slowdown has been much deeper rooted than feared, markets will continue to buy dips until a definitively positive shift in trade war sentiment.

USDAsia

Strong demand on the platform for long USDAsia is consistent with the general market views.
Trade war escalation is a definite plus for the dollar and coupled with robust US economic data; it does support this view.

MYR: Despite some optimism creeping back in on reports of bilateral trade negotiations between China and the US, while most of $Asia pulled back from yesterday morning highs, the Ringgit continued to lag the moves.

The Ringgit continues to suffer from political risk and fiscal uncertainty. If the USD does start to reassert itself and coupled with short-term bearish signals on oil prices,  the USDMYR will likely slice through the 4.05 level like a hot knife through butter in this environment.

INR The Ruppe hit and all interday time low and has not plummeted over 7.6 % versus the USD will wiping out a significant portion of carry-trades in its wake. But the Rupee will continue to trade at the mercy of oil prices

KRW. After testing 1130.00, the dissenting policy vote injected some life into the Won and coupled with the firmer RMB backdrop saw the USDKRW fall below the 1124 level. The won will be the go-to trade on the escalation of trade war tensions, but in the meantime, the RMB complex will continue to dictate the pace of play.

Stephen Innes, Head of Trading

The post The sky hasn’t fallen just yet appeared first on AdviserVoice.

The address to Congress was released a good hour before the main event yesterday morning. Mr Trump followed it word for word with no surprises or add-ons leaving the street (and myself) with the feeling of being underwhelmed. Again the President was high on policy and rhetoric and light on details. Given the legislative agenda, the Houses of Congress are going to be very busy indeed over the next six months getting it all done. I suspect though that most of what has been announced are already built into the price of the USD today.

The S+P, Dow and Nasdaq are unchanged with the USD drifting ever so slightly higher against most of the majors as I guess it has become a case of no news is ever so slightly good news. Attention will now turn to Fed Chair Yellen’s speech on Friday which should have more impact if she is hawkish. Over the last ten days, a plethora of other Governor’s have been upbeat and hawkish, and a follow-on by Mrs Yellen would put March’s FOMC unexpectedly “live.” This would almost certainly lead to another bout of USD strength.

Looking around the G-10 space post-speech:

EUR/USD

Sitting at the session lows at 1.0555 as it continues it drift lower from New York. Euro has support at 1.0550 and 1.0530 with critical support at 1.0495.

Resistance is at 1.0590 and then stronger at 1.0630. Euro continues to drift aimlessly to the nuances of the USD as French political worries recede. (for now)

USD/JPY

Had rallied in New York as bond yields firmed and Trump’s tax plans circulated. There is definitely a hint of a short squeeze here as well as traders had nervously eyed key long-term support around 111.50 in the previous sessions.

USD/JPY sits at the top of its range in Asia this morning with resistance at 113.80 initially. Support appears at 112.75 intra-day.

GBP/USD

As Brexit D-Day approaches, GBP has remained capped on any rally towards the 1.2600 level. Today’s speech won’t affect that dynamic. GBP is trading 1.2370 at the moment with support at 1.2345 and then the 1.2250 area.

AUD/USD

Completely ignored the speech to remain around 7670 this morning. It has even shrugged off better than expected GDP this morning at +2.4% YoY as the resource rally digs Australia out of the hole.

Aud continues to be firmly anchored in the 7600/7740 range it has traded in all of February. Intra-day resistance lies at 7700. Bring a good book to read.

USD/CNH

Ignored better than expected Manufacturing PMI’s as general USD strength sees the pair trade to the top of its range at 6.8650. Yellen’s speech and the trajectory of U.S. interest rates seem likely to have a far greater effect on the CNH and EMFX in general then Mr.Trump for now.

USD/CNH remains mired in its 2-week range of 6.8400 to 6.8700 with eyes turned to Friday now to break the deadlock.

GOLD

The USD strength has weakened the hands of Gold bulls. A reduction in the levels of perceived risk around the world and the very extended speculative long positioning sees Gold eyeing support at 1242. A move through here could see more stop-loss selling emerge with the next support at the 1236 area on the short term charts.

Resistance intra-day is at the 1248 area.

Summary

Mr Trump’s highly anticipated speech was a highly scripted damp squib in the end. No news was good news, and this sees the USD slightly bid in Asia although, with so much built into the price, the longevity of the move into Europe is perhaps doubtful.

The highlight of the week now becomes Chair Yellen’s speech on Friday for signals as to whether March’s discounted FOMC meeting is in fact “live.”

By Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA

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