Sam Garland

Key points

• Record cash earnings of $17b, up $3b on half, driven by net interest margin (NIM), trading income, strong cost management and non-recurrence of notables
• Return on equity (ROE) over 12.5% evokes returns of a prior era, sparked by same drivers as earnings, augmented by significant capital return over past two years
• NIM considerably increased, 10 bps hoh, however benefit was shorter and smaller than many anticipated – driven by fierce competition
• Other operating income (OOI) (ex notables) up 3% hoh, with $1b increase in trading income more than offsetting reductions in other areas due to sale of businesses
• Operating expenses tightly managed given inflation, inching toward $20b – there was a 2.7% increase hoh, less than overall inflation but still significant
• Expense-to-income (ex notables) decreased to 44%, a substantial fall, with the growth in interest and other income more than offsetting a well-managed increase in operating expenses
• Credit impairment expenses rose to over $1.4b, though this is still a less-than-average percentage of gross loans and advances (GLAs) than historic periods
• Seventh consecutive half of falling notable expenses for remediation (from record $2.8b in 2H19), and the third half in a row under $500m
• Lending growth smaller than normal (4.8% annualised) and falling, with a decline of 231 bps hoh

Australia’s major banks delivered record half year results and appear to be on track for a record full year 2023 result, with cash earnings of $17.1 billion in the first half of 2023, exceeding the previous half year peak of $15.8 billion in 2015. This growth was driven by a significant 14 bps increase in NIM, modest lending growth, large increases in trading income and notable expenses which fell to under $0.5 billion, over $1.3 billion less than the prior half.

Despite inflationary pressures, operating expenses rose only 2.7% half-on-half with a 7% rise in personnel costs offset by lower property and technology costs. Credit expenses remained low but more significant at $1.4 billion for the half. Provision levels now exceed $20 billion in anticipation of a difficult economic environment, with very limited loss experience to date.

However, this extraordinary earnings result was greeted with limited enthusiasm as it demonstrated the competitive reality of a simpler banking industry and the need for both discipline and diversification in the outlook.

Sam Garland, Banking and Capital Markets Leader at PwC Australia said, “With over $3.9 trillion in interest-earning assets, the recent NIM uptick has had a dramatic impact on bank income. However, given a 350 basis point increase in cash rates in the 10 months to March, that margin benefit has been shorter-lived and smaller than many anticipated – reflecting a highly competitive lending and deposit market.

“This is the reality of a much simpler set of banks – the base of income is now heavily focused in lending and deposits, which are extremely competitive and most banks described the NIM benefit as having peaked already. In the core business, the ability to continue controlling costs will therefore be key, as will the impact of a changing credit loss environment.”

Provisions for credit loss say more about the banks’ expectations than the experience they are seeing in borrowers today. At $20.6 billion they compare to gross impaired assets of $7 billion, illustrating both the lack of significant stress to date, but also the caution in the banks’ outlook.

Solid lending growth continued to boost net interest income which exceeded $37.5 billion in the first half of 2023, a rise of close to $4 billion half-on-half. This is $9 billion more than in 1H15, the last record for half year cash earnings. Underlying profit (ex notables) also rose $3.8 billion, the largest increase ever, and notable expenses, which averaged almost $3 billion per half in FY18-20, were under $0.5 billion.

“The good news for Australia’s major banks is that they appear to be arresting share loss, with last quarter’s lending growth rate approximating that of their nearest large competitors for the first time since pre-COVID.

“As for OOI, this increased again half-on-half, with a strong period of trading income returns more than offsetting continued decreases from sales of businesses. We see other sources of income as a key focus for the banks in the medium term given the tightening returns in the core business.”

Four key themes expected in the medium term requiring discipline and diversification

PwC Australia expects four key themes to play out in the medium term as a result of the economic, digital, energy and fiscal transitions Australia is experiencing, all of which will require commercial and execution discipline and some degree of diversification:

1. Squeeze on the core: continued competition, inflation pressure on costs and a more normal credit loss environment.
2. Doubling-down on digital: completing transitions to cloud and reaping the efficiency and change benefits while embarking on larger core transformations and exploring new technology such as AI, digital ID and developments in payments.
3. Diversification revisited: In response to a more simple, narrower base of earnings, there will be an inevitable review of the services and business lines that make up the bank – potentially leading to acquisitions and a renewed focus on innovation.
4. Resilience and reputation tests: From how the banks deliver for customers in need, through to investment in protecting customer’s data, against scams, cyber threats and a renewed regulatory focus following the events overseas, and new leadership in domestic regulators.

Mr Garland said these strategic themes arise in the context of a strong banking system and continued uncertainty, meaning decisions will be carefully taken.

“Overall, Australia’s major banks remain in terrific balance sheet and business model shape, with regulatory metrics well in the top quartile of international banks and businesses simple and focused. While this has led to a narrower base of earnings, it has also put our banks in a far stronger position to absorb volatility and explore new opportunities. The banks are likely to be extremely discerning of the risk/reward trade off in these decisions,” concluded Mr Garland.

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Kristin Stubbins

Australian entities are making significant advances in their environmental, social and governance (ESG) reporting. There has been a steady increase in the comprehensiveness of ESG reporting across Australia’s leading companies over the last three years – according to the latest analysis released today by PwC Australia.

The ESG Reporting in Australia analysis this year revealed a significant uplift in the number of companies reporting on ESG performance. While ASX200^[1] companies across the board have progressed the maturity of their ESG reporting there are compelling reasons for them to accelerate their efforts.

Despite year-on-year improvements in ESG reporting, ASX200 disclosure levels will need to be significantly enhanced to meet the proposed standards of the International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB), particularly in the area of quantifying the financial impact of risks and opportunities. While the volume of ESG reporting has increased, much of it is focused on the impact the company has on the economy, environment and people rather than financial impact ESG topics may have on a company’s enterprise value.

Kristin Stubbins, Assurance leader at PwC Australia said, “Significant progress has been made in measuring climate and sustainability performance, with half of the companies in our analysis including some disclosure of Scope 3 emissions. However, many organisations still need to improve their financial disclosures of the risks and opportunities that exist.

“Overall, the ASX200 showed year-on-year improvements in reporting on their sustainability strategies and identifying material topics. However, many companies are still working up the maturity curve in setting specific targets in these areas and developing disclosures that measure progress against targets.”

A year of improvements in climate-related disclosures

There continues to be a gradual improvement in disclosures around the risk of climate change to Australian businesses, with over half (55%) identifying climate change as a current or emerging risk that is being considered by the board and management.

More companies are reporting Net Zero targets, with 49% having committed to Net Zero and approximately half of these also including a reasonable level of detail on a transition plan to achieve this target.

There has been an increase in the understanding, measurement and reporting on emissions, including Scope 3, with 49% of companies disclosing Scope 3 emissions in some form. Of these, 14% include emissions from their own operations as well as some inclusion of upstream and downstream through their value chains.

“Material Scope 3 impacts will vary by industry and business model, but for many companies, a large amount of emissions occur upstream via suppliers and raw materials, or downstream through use and disposal of products. Given its far-reaching impact, every area of the business could be affected, from supply chain and product development to reporting, and marketing.

“While companies are making good first efforts in reporting Scope 3 emissions, these are often excluded from the scope of external assurance. We expect this to change over time as the quality and availability of underlying data improves,” said Ms Stubbins.

Key findings in relation to the General Requirements Sustainability Reporting Standard (S1) for the ASX50

Seventy eight percent of the ASX50^[2] provide some level of disclosure on ESG topics relevant to their industry as identified by the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board (SASB) standards being leveraged by the ISSB.

Disclosure has improved regarding how companies identify, prioritise and address ESG topics considered most important to their business. Over 74% of the ASX50 disclosed the process undertaken to identify these topics, with 44% of those companies describing the frequency this process is updated (an improvement over the prior year of approximately 10%). Similarly, we have seen an improvement in the description of engagement with internal and external stakeholders, with 22% of the companies outlining the critical issues relevant for all stakeholder groups and outlining actions in response to these concerns.

Ms Stubbins said companies require more guidance on what constitutes a ‘significant’ sustainability risk and opportunity under ISSB to meet reporting requirements.

Key findings in relation to the Climate-related Disclosures Sustainability Reporting Standard (S2)

When looking at the bigger cohort of the ASX200, there are consistent gaps in disclosure under the S2 guidance.

For governance, the most significant gap is around disclosure of skills. Only 25% disclose the specific expertise of board members concerning climate change; and only 6% disclose the training the board has undertaken or are about to undertake.

For strategy, the biggest gap is assessing the financial impact of the risks and opportunities, with only one in five companies providing disclosures on performing a scenario analysis; how significant climate-related risks and opportunities affected the most recently-reported financial position, financial performance and cash flows; and how the financial position will change over time for a given strategy to address climate-related risks and opportunities.

“To meet the proposed S2 requirements, companies will need to provide more detailed disclosure of decarbonisation transition plans to address climate risks. For example, disclosures on how decarbonisation transition plans will be resourced are shown for approximately a quarter of companies. Providing a reasonable basis for how a company will achieve emission reduction targets, for instance in the form of a resourced transition plan, provides confidence to stakeholders on the validity and achievability of these ambitions,” said Ms Stubbins.

For risk management, while many companies have identified climate change as a material risk, describing how this assessment fits into their already-established risk assessment framework is only done by approximately one in three companies. Furthermore, clearly sign posting or describing opportunities identified through a transition to a lower carbon economy is limited.

Ms Stubbins said, “This may be driven partly by the fact that companies haven’t yet been able to articulate their opportunities in a commercially-sensitive manner. Companies are also grappling with managing the risk of greenwashing, which is now on regulators’ radar. ASIC is already undertaking greenwashing investigations according to press reports, and has been proactive in warning companies about making misleading statements and product offerings.”

For metrics and targets, the draft standard requires an extensive range of information relating to metrics and targets that is not currently disclosed by Australian companies such as the amount and percentage of assets or business activities vulnerable to physical and transition risks; the amount and percentage of assets or business activities aligned with climate related-opportunities; the deployment of capital towards financing or investment; the use of internal carbon prices; and a link to remuneration – disclosing how executive management’s KPI’s are aligned to meeting climate related targets.

ESG reporting requirements are driving large-scale shifts in overall business strategies and approaches locally and abroad. Looking at initiatives across the globe, mandatory ESG regulation requirements continue to pick up pace, with Australia undoubtedly to follow suit. Stakeholder activism on ESG topics also continues to gain traction as regulators become increasingly concerned with greenwashing.

All of this points to a clear need for companies to address the proposed reporting requirements sooner rather than later. Alongside complying with ISSB’s sustainability and climate standards, it remains essential that companies maintain momentum in other ESG areas such as modern slavery, First Nations, diversity and privacy.

“Boards and executives are being asked to work towards a ‘no regrets path’. They need to stay on top of the evolving regulatory landscape; ensure a collaborative and holistic view is being formed which considers all stakeholders within their organisation; and prepare for impending ISSB changes. This year’s analysis indicates companies are slowly realising this but that significant work is still required to meet the changes that are coming,” concluded Ms Stubbins.

———-

[1] 165 companies of the ASX200 are included in the analysis
[2] 46 companies of the ASX50 are included in the analysis as they had reported results by 14 October

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Sam Garland

Key points

• Cash earnings returned to pre-pandemic levels at $26.8b (from $17.4b last year), return on equity recovered to 9.9%.
• Adjustments to credit provisions provided a net benefit of $0.8b in FY21, a $12b improvement relative to last year ($11.2b expense).
• Credit provisions were $20.4b, down $2.9b yoy but still $4.1b higher than FY19.
• Notable items charge (pre-tax) fell to $3.4b for the year, down from $6.6b yoy.
• Net interest margin (NIM) decreased to 1.86% down 3bps.
• Non-interest income continued to decline, hitting $16.1b (down $1.0b yoy), its lowest level in over a decade.
• Expense-to-income excluding notable items rose to 48%, the highest in more than a decade, average FTE across the majors increased by over 6,000 (4.3%) to c.152,000 for the year.
• Lending grew by 3.8%, less than domestic system growth as non-majors increased share.
• Common equity Tier 1 (CET1) rose again to 12.6% (pre-dividends and buy-backs).

Cash earnings of Australia’s major banks rebounded to pre-pandemic levels in the full year 2021, as economic confidence continued to build with vaccination progress and reopenings. The stark reduction in uncertainty since a year ago reduced credit expense by $12 billion while expenses for remediation and restructuring, which have dominated bank results since 2018, reduced significantly, though not completely. This was despite a rise in operating expenses (excluding notables) as the banks added more than 6,000 additional people in the year to provide support through the pandemic, deal with increased lending volumes and bolster risk management.

As a result, cash earnings were $26.8 billion, up 53.7% and at a level almost identical to FY19 before the pandemic struck. This lifted industry return on equity to 9.9%. Due to these returns, as well as significantly increased levels of capital and provisions on their balance sheets, the banks were able to commit to returning $32.2 billion to shareholders ($18.7b dividends and $13.5b share buy backs).

Sam Garland, Banking and Capital Markets Leader at PwC Australia, said, “2020 was the year of uncertainty and concern, with credit provisions and capital built up to protect the balance sheet at significant cost to the results. In 2021, we’ve seen much of that reversed or adjusted as the impact of government support, economic improvement and vaccinations reduce uncertainty for now and return results to a more normal level.”

PwC Australia’s Major Banks Analysis Full Year 2021 revealed that as Australia begins to open up and look ahead, the banks are emerging strong into an environment of significant opportunity and profound change. Reputations and balance sheets have been reinforced as the banks supported their customers through uncertainty and they have continued to progress on customer experiences, remediation, simplification and technology transformations despite the circumstances of the pandemic. However, challenges remain as long-term pressures continue in the core business and the same trends presenting significant opportunities create profound threats.

Mr Garland said, “The big movements in bank results over the past few years have been driven by large charges for notable items like regulatory remediation and business divestment and, in 2020 and 2021, credit. Looking through all that reveals businesses that have delivered steady profitability, even as they have invested in strengthening their balance sheets, profoundly simplifying their businesses, supporting customers, transforming technology and addressing a large number of regulatory and reputational issues.

“However the combination of long-term headwinds in core business earnings, intensifying and broader competition and accelerating changes in the external environment means that the transformation can not stop there. It is a tremendously exciting but challenging period ahead for the banks.”

Shifting sands set stage for further transformation

While earnings rebounded significantly during the year, most of this was due to the $12 billion swing in credit costs and over $2.5 billion (post-tax) reduction in notable items charge, with several indicators of core business performance remaining lower relative to the past.

Mr Garland said that these long-term trends in results demonstrate why the banks have been investing so much in simplification and transformation. “The trends we’ve seen in core results for many years around margins, subdued lending growth and non-interest income continued through 2021 and competition is intensifying. This really reiterates why investments in technology and new services to transform customer experience is critical and why we’ve seen a flurry of announcements of acquisitions, new products and partnerships over the last year.

“Non-majors grew mortgage lending faster in absolute terms than three of the majors in 2021, we’ve recently seen a multi-billion dollar bank IPO and a buy-now-pay-later company is the subject of the largest acquisition in Australian history, by an international player with growth ambitions. The banks remain in an extremely strong position, but the market is changing.”

Given these pressures, costs are critical to maintaining sustainable results and the capacity to invest. Expense-to-income rose to 48% in FY21 (ex notables), the highest in over a decade, indicating the challenge ahead for the banks on the cost base.

Adding to the opportunity and challenge for the banks are significant changes in the economy, society and the industry that were gathering momentum before the pandemic and are now moving quickly – the shifting sands. These have huge business and purpose implications and present the impetus for the next phase of transformation for the banks.

Mr Garland said, “The banks will need to adapt to maximise the vast economic change and investment required for decarbonisation, the implications for them and their customers of the future of work and the mainstream adoption of digital currencies, decentralised finance and serious digital competitors. They’ll also need to help customers operate across increasingly fractured geopolitical relationships and consider carefully the societal implications of a k-shaped recovery and housing affordability on their customers.

“Taken individually, any one of these factors has significant implications for banks. Taken together at the same time is enormous, challenging but could be hugely rewarding.”

The measures agreed at COP26 alone will be the foundation for an expected $1-2 trillion worldwide in incremental global investment each and every year, at least to 2030 and likely beyond, according to the United Nations Climate Action report.^[1] The implications for banks in supporting this transition are clear and will require much more than just writing loans.

PwC Australia’s recent report^[2], What Workers Want: Winning the war for talent, showed that the balance of power has shifted from employer to employee. With greater bargaining power, workers are more readily changing jobs for better pay, benefits, and conditions. This has deep implications for the employee value proposition (EVP) for the banks themselves, as well as their customers’ workforces and cost structures.

Finally, the extent of technological change building in the financial system itself could have profound implications for how business is conducted and the position of banks in the system. Mr Garland added, “The potential of digital currency and decentralised infrastructure to transform the financial system and disintermediate incumbents is significant. While it is far from a fait accompli, it warrants close and open minded attention.”

Balance between rigour and speed

The majors are hard at work on priorities expected such as: technology simplification and transformation: rolling out new services; customer intimacy; uplifting culture; risk management practices and controls; compliance; customer outcomes; productivity; ESG; and, the balance sheet.

Mr Garland said, “Banks are complex things. It’s not just because of legacy systems and processes. It’s due to the very nature of who they are: institutions that sit at the heart of capitalism, intermediating between so many, and often, competing stakeholders, interests and objectives. Transforming such an enterprise, while simultaneously satisfying such a wide range of operational, regulatory, legal, and commercial requirements has never been easy.

“There is no bank not working hard on all of this now. The big question, of course, is whether they will move fast enough – and carefully enough – and how much of the opportunity will be seized by others while they work through this balance.

In the coming months and years, we will be paying attention to the way the major banks balance ambition, rigour and speed,” concluded Mr Garland.

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[1] https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/raising-ambition/climate-finance
[2] https://www.pwc.com.au/important-problems/future-of-work-design-for-the-future/what-workers-want-winning-the-war-for-talent.html

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John Garvey

Financial institutions are spending, on average, 14% of annual operating costs on change management functions in order to drive greater productivity gains, a new PwC study has shown.

According to PwC’s report, “Productivity 2021 and beyond: Upskilling the workforce of the future to create a competitive advantage in financial services,” more than one in four (27%) firms are spending more than 20% of their operating costs on change programmes. For organisations going through challenging periods the cost can exceed 30%.

The second iteration of PwC’s productivity research, that surveyed over 500 financial services businesses globally, and received over 60% of responses from C-suite leaders, looked at some key workstreams implemented by financial services businesses and evaluated its impact on productivity.

Despite continued cost pressure and the impact of COVID-19, spending on change programmes has increased since 2018, and is up 5% year-on-year. The top three organisational change priorities, ranked by importance, are client and customer satisfaction (90%), regulatory compliance (85%) and operational resilience (82%).

Within these areas, 60% of respondents have implemented specialized training programmes and 51% have introduced career mentors and coaches, to support the upskilling of their workforce and improve productivity. 43% of respondents have also offered their people the opportunity to second to other businesses, with a commitment to securing their place at the firm at completion.

There is also a need to ensure specialist skills are imported into the industry, via crowd-sourcing and use of the gig economy. Eighty percent of respondents who use the platform economy to support their business feel like it delivers high value, with 62% recommending this approach across the industry. At the moment, only 5% of financial services employees come from the gig economy. PwC has found that supplementing the upskilling change management programmes, with use of gig economy workers, to boost productivity overall.

John Garvey, PwC’s Global Financial Services Leader, PwC US, comments: “Despite increasing change budgets, it is often not proportionate with results. Financial services in particular is lagging most other industries in this aspect. Leaders in the industry are looking seriously at their workforces to evaluate which roles need to be performed by permanent employees and which can be performed by ¹gig economy workers, contractors or even crowd-sourced on a case-by-case basis. In a post-COVID-19 world, alongside a growing need to accelerate digitisation efforts, businesses need to improve their performance and ensure they are getting the most out of their workforce – however it is made up.”

Financial institutions are increasingly recognising that they must accelerate productivity efforts if they are to create sustainable business models. 72% of those surveyed are planning to implement additional specific measures, compared to 53% in 2018.

More than three quarters (77%) of financial services firms are tracking productivity at some level. Hourly time tracking (15%) or periodic time studies (25%) are still rare, and only 37% of those employing these measures believe that such tracking will improve productivity, down from 63% in 2018.

Respondents to the survey cited several obstacles to consistent and detailed productivity analysis, including a perception that doing so would cost too much (44%) or take up too much of employees’ time (39%). In addition, employee resistance (38%) to workforce analytics has crystalised in recent years.

The range of digital tools and technologies available to supplement human employees is expanding rapidly, and the financial services industry is capitalising with almost 80% of respondents using these tools to improve productivity.

Of those firms that use tools, more than half (54%) are using AI, 40% deep learning and 37% robotic process automation. 90% of these businesses have seen an improvement in productivity as a direct result.

John Garvey, PwC’s Global Financial Services Leader, PwC US, comments: “The pandemic has underscored the importance of analysing workforce productivity but companies are struggling to tackle the issue holistically, whereas tactical measures seem to be offering more value. From an employer perspective, they are already working with a more dispersed and remote workforce post-Covid, compounding the challenge of improving performance, evaluating employees and developing teams. What we have seen though, is that empowering in-house employees with digital tools is producing results, as is importing specialist skills and knowledge from the gig economy.”

According to Nicole Wakefield, PwC’s Global Financial Services Advisory Leader, PwC Singapore, “Financial services firms are actively looking at flexible ways to better leverage their change function budgets, particularly by upskilling their workforce – whether by training their current employees with new skills, or leveraging gig economy workers that can immediately provide value to the changes being made to their business models.”

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John Garvey

More than half (52%) of financial institutions say they expect to have more gig-based employees over the next three to five years, according PwC’s report, “Productivity 2021 and beyond: Upskilling the workforce of the future to create a competitive advantage in financial services.”

The second iteration of PwC’s productivity research, that surveyed over 500 financial services businesses globally, and received over 60% of responses from C-suite leaders, looked at some key workstreams implemented by financial services businesses and evaluated its impact on productivity.

The upskilling of the workforce is a key element to improving productivity within financial services. This includes better understanding of the workforce, embracing the platform economy and gig workers and making sure employees are equipped with the right digital tools, specialist knowledge and soft skills to navigate in the new normal of the business world. Firms need new capabilities – both in-house and through outsourcing – as technology solutions increasingly involve collaboration with third parties.

Despite increasingly available on-demand talent, most institutions still rely primarily on full-time and part-time employees. ¹Among respondents, contractors comprise just 9% of the workforce, and gig-economy talent makes up just 5%.

PwC believes that gig economy employees will likely perform 15% to 20% of the work of a typical institution within five years, driven by continuous cost pressure and the need to access digitally skilled talent.

Beyond the gig-economy, crowd-sourcing solutions were also highlighted as a key contributor to improve productivity. Crowd-sourcing has more than doubled since 2018, cited by 50% of the survey’s participants, from 21% in the first survey, of which 80% of respondents who leveraged crowd-sourcing believed it added ‘high value’ to their organisations. This is a significant increase from just 39% who felt it would add value in 2018.

John Garvey, PwC’s Global Financial Services Leader, PwC US, comments: “Leaders in the industry are looking seriously at their workforces to evaluate which roles need to be performed by permanent employees and which can be performed by gig-economy workers, contractors or even crowd-sourced on a case-by-case basis. COVID-19 and remote working have opened the door to accessing talent outside of a firm’s physical location, including outside of the country. What we are seeing now is a talent marketplace for gig workers in financial services, competing to take advantage of their specialist skill set and boost productivity within their businesses.”

Nicole Wakefield, PwC’s Global Financial Services Advisory Leader, PwC Singapore, adds, “Gig economy workers also add value by immediately bringing the digital skills needed by financial services firms to improve functions such as customer experience and improving institutional resilience, while the full-time workforce is being upskilled.”

However, there are challenges for financial services businesses taking on gig economy working, which will require overcoming several obstacles. The survey shows that the most common issue cited by respondents include confidentiality concerns (44%), a lack of knowledge (43%), regulatory risk (42%) and overall risk avoidance (37%).

“Many of the most valuable companies in the world share one thing in common: they have embraced the platform economy as a business model. They operate with relatively few full-time employees and an increasing percentage of gig-economy talent and skills that they can access on-demand, making the organisations far more innovative, nimble and cost-efficient,” said John Garvey.

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