Biden versus Trump – the US presidential election is looming as the next big event for investors

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Key points The US election has significant potential to add to volatility in investment markets. A Trump victory will mean more of the same and would likely initially be more positive for US than global and Australian shares. By contrast a Biden victory may add to short-term volatility but this is likely to be short

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Weekly market update – week ending 25 September, 2020

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Investment markets and key developments over the past week Global share markets fell again over the last week on concerns about rising coronavirus cases, tightening social distancing restrictions in Europe and the lack of progress towards additional fiscal stimulus in the US. Australian shares managed a decent gain through the week with banks boosted by

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Australia’s “eye popping” budget deficit and public debt blow out – can it be paid off? Does it matter?

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Key points The Australian Federal budget next month will likely see a further blow out in the budget deficit due to the ongoing hit to tax revenue & more stimulus. We expect an “eye popping” 2020-21 deficit of around $230bn. Stepped up economic reforms will help grow the economy but are unlikely to drive a

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Weekly market update – week ending 18 September, 2020

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Investment markets and key developments over the past week Share markets mostly rose slightly over the last week after two weeks of falls helped by reasonable economic data, anticipation of Fed dovishness, positive vaccine news and M&A activity. However, some of the gains were given up later in the week as tech stocks came under

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Coronavirus recession leads to biggest drop in Aust GDP on record (and worst since Great Depression)

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Australian GDP fell by 7% in the June quarter, which was worse than the latest market expectations (the economist consensus was for a 6% decline), but better than had been expected around April when many were forecasting a 10% or so decline. This is the worst quarterly GDP decline on record (the quarterly data only

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Weekly market update – week ending 28 August, 2020

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Investment markets and key developments over the past week Global share markets rose over the past week helped by continuing signs of economic recovery, positive coronavirus vaccine and treatment news and anticipation of the Fed’s shift to inflation average targeting. Australian shares fell slightly though over the past week reflecting poor earnings results with weakness

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Weekly market update – week ending 21 August, 2020

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Investment markets and key developments over the past week Share markets were mixed over the last week. US shares rose slightly but have been constrained around their February record high and Chinese shares rose but Eurozone and Japanese shares fell after strong gains in the previous week. Australian shares were little changed reflecting the mixed

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Weekly market update – week ending 14 August, 2020

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Investment markets and key developments over the past week Major global share markets, with the exception of Chinese shares, rose over the last week as US new coronavirus cases trended down and on optimism regarding a vaccine and the economic outlook. US shares briefly surpassed their February closing high and rose 0.6% for the week.

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Weekly market update – week ending 7 August, 2020

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Investment markets and key developments over the past week Share markets generally rose over the last week helped by a combination of better than expected earnings in the US, good economic data and positive vaccine news. This saw the US share market push up to just 1% below its February high. The positive global lead

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Weekly market update – week ending 31 July, 2020

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Investment markets and key developments over the past week Share markets were mixed over the last week with Chinese shares up solidly and US shares rising slightly on the back of good earnings results, particularly for tech stocks, but Eurozone, Japanese and Australian shares fell on uncertainty regarding the economic outlook. Australian shares were dragged

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