Andrew Buchan

As Australia approaches the 2026 Federal Budget, investors are preparing for a policy landscape defined by competing priorities including fiscal repair, cost-of-living relief and structural reform, according to Andrew Buchan, partner at HLB Mann Judd Brisbane.

While the 2026 Federal Budget may not deliver sweeping reform, it is expected to set the tone for the next phase of economic policy.

“Policy risk is becoming a more prominent factor in investment decision-making. In the current environment, even incremental changes can influence how and where capital is allocated,” said Buchan.

For investors, the key theme emerging from this year’s Budget is policy uncertainty rather than policy shock.

“While sweeping changes may appear unlikely, even incremental policy adjustments could have meaningful implications for investment strategy, particularly across property, superannuation and tax settings,” said Buchan.

“With deficits persisting and government debt projected to remain elevated, this year’s Budget is expected to walk a fine line between economic discipline and political reality.

“This is unlikely to be a reform-heavy Budget. Cost-of-living support, particularly in areas such as energy, healthcare and household tax relief, is likely set to remain a central focus, potentially at the expense of more ambitious structural reform.

“Instead, we expect targeted measures that address immediate pressures while deferring more difficult long-term decisions.”

Tax reform has re-emerged in the policy conversation, though expectations should be tempered, says Buchan.

Potential changes under consideration include adjustments to capital gains tax concessions and negative gearing, alongside the continuation of legislated personal income tax cuts.

“Any significant overhaul remains politically challenging,” says Buchan. “We’re seeing growing momentum for tax reform, but the reality is that meaningful change may be gradual. Investors should be prepared for tweaks rather than transformation.”

 Housing policy is expected to be one of the most closely watched elements of the Budget, with potential implications for both affordability and investment.

Buchan believes that reform to investor tax settings could alter after-tax returns and influence behaviour, particularly if changes are not grandfathered.

“Growth assets, particularly housing, is where policy decisions could most directly shift investor sentiment. Even modest changes to tax settings may have an impact on transaction activity and supply.”

The direction of superannuation policy remains clear, with increased scrutiny on higher balance accounts and a continued shift toward targeting the system for retirement income rather than wealth accumulation.

While contribution caps are set to rise modestly, additional taxes on large balances reinforce a broader policy trend.

“The super system is evolving. We’re moving away from open-ended tax concessions toward a more targeted framework, particularly for high-balance investors.”

“Whilst we don’t know for certain, this Budget may be less about bold moves and more about direction. For investors, understanding that direction and positioning accordingly will be critical,” Buchan added.

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Andrew Buchan

The structural tailwinds driving returns in the past are giving way to new headwinds, and investors should prepare for a more complex investment landscape in 2026 and beyond, according to HLB Mann Judd Brisbane partner, Andrew Buchan.

“The past decade has been exceptionally kind to investors,” said Mr Buchan.

“We have lived through a unique combination of low inflation, falling interest rates, globalisation, favourable demographics, and rapid technological innovation. But those conditions are changing, and investors need to be ready for a very different environment ahead.”

Mr Buchan said long-term global trends, including more government intervention, the reversal of globalisation, rising geopolitical tensions, climate transition costs and the demographic pressures of an ageing population and shrinking workforces, are converging to create a more uncertain and inflation-prone backdrop.  Added to this mix is the social uncertainty around artificial intelligence (AI) stemming from the rapid spend and pace of AI development and the difficulty of predicting its long-term effects on society, work, and human behaviour.

“These forces are bigger than market cycles. They are structural shifts, and they’re reshaping the market in ways that will influence returns for years to come.”

Mr Buchan highlighted six key themes shaping returns:

1. A move to bigger government and a shift away from economic rationalism

“Governments are becoming far more active in their economies,” said Mr Buchan.

“Higher spending, increased regulation and rising public debt may support social stability, but they risk crowding out private investment and slowing productivity growth. We’re moving into an era of more managed economic outcomes.”

2. The reversal of globalisation

“The assumption of frictionless global trade is fading,” he said. “Friend-shoring, trade barriers, and industrial policy are pushing up costs and creating a world where regional resilience matters more than global efficiency. For investors, that means inflationary pressure and more volatility in supply chains.”

3. Escalating geopolitical tensions

“We’ve moved from a unipolar to a multipolar world.” he said. “Competition between major powers is increasing, and that brings instability. While sectors like defence, cybersecurity and energy security may benefit, geopolitical risk is now an everyday factor, not an outlier.”

4. Climate change and the cost of decarbonisation

“The transition to net zero will deliver huge long-term opportunities, but it isn’t free,” he said.

“In the near term, investors should expect higher costs, tighter regulation, and inflationary impacts. But those who position early stand to benefit as technology and efficiency gains accelerate.”

5. Demographic headwinds

“Ageing populations and shrinking workforces are creating productivity challenges across advanced economies,” Mr Buchan added.

“At the same time, fast-growing emerging markets may offer compelling opportunities for those willing to broaden their investment horizons.”

6. Social uncertainty around AI

“Rapid advances in AI are creating widespread uncertainty about its impact on jobs, social cohesion, and everyday life, ranging from workforce disruption to questions of trust, ethics and accountability.

“Conversely, AI offers significant opportunities to enhance productivity, improve decision-making and unlock new forms of economic and social value,” he added.

Implications for investors

Mr Buchan flagged that these structural shifts suggest more persistent inflation, lower productivity growth, and a world where interest rates remain higher and more variable than in the 2010s.

“Moderate returns should be the baseline expectation for investors over the next few years,” he said. “The extraordinary tailwinds of the past few decades are unlikely to return quickly.”

However, he emphasised that disciplined investing remains the most effective long-term strategy.

“In an environment like this, success won’t come from trying to pick short-term market movements. It will come from diversification, managing risk well, and staying invested through uncertainty. Consistency and patience will matter more than ever.”

Mr Buchan reinforced that technologies such as AI and automation may eventually deliver a meaningful productivity uplift, but “investors should recognise that the full, negative, and positive, economic impact may take time to materialise.

“Despite the challenges, there are still attractive opportunities,” he added. “But investors need to reset expectations, stay disciplined and prepare for a world where the old playbook doesn’t apply.”

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