AdviserVoiceChinese Economic data Archives - AdviserVoice https://www.adviservoice.com.au/tag/chinese-economic-data/ Financial planner information & financial planner education/CPD - AdviserVoice Wed, 22 Jul 2026 20:20:18 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=7.0.2 Shock slump in Chinese production growth https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2014/09/shock-slump-chinese-production-growth/ https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2014/09/shock-slump-chinese-production-growth/#respond Mon, 15 Sep 2014 21:40:13 +0000 https://adviservoice.com.au/?p=32830 Chinese Economic data
  • Chinese growth drivers are shifting from industrial production to household spending.

    Chinese growth drivers are shifting from industrial production to household spending.

    Chinese economic data: Industrial production rose at a 6.9 per cent annual rate in August, the slowest growth in 5½ years (December 2008) and below forecasts. Retail sales rose at an 11.9 per cent annual rate in August, mildly below forecasts (+12.1 per cent). Real annual growth was estimated at 10.6 per cent – the fastest growth in eight months. And urban investment in the first eight months of 2014 was up 16.5 per cent on a year ago (forecast +16.9 per cent).

  • Previously released Chinese data showed: Consumer prices rose by 2.0 per cent over the year to August; Producer prices fell by 1.2 per cent over the year to August; the Chinese trade balance improved from a surplus of US$47.3 billion in July to a record high surplus of US$49.83 billion in August.

What does it all mean?

  • It seems that every country is experiencing a transition of sorts. In China, the growth drivers are shifting from industrial production to household spending. In Australia, the growth drivers are shifting from mining construction to home building and resource exports. And in the US, a transition will soon start from money printing and zero interest rates to a more “normal” monetary policy situation. The point is that these transitions may or may not go to plan. So policymakers need to tread warily.
  • There is no doubt the drop in Chinese production growth comes as a surprise. Usually economic data is not too far away from forecasts – that certainly was the case for all the other monthly variables in August. Of course surprises can happen – witness Australian employment figures over the past few months.
  • While production is now growing at the slowest pace in 5½ years, the good news is that policymakers are in a position to provide “targeted” stimulus with inflation under control. The other good news is that retail sales rose at the fastest pace in real terms in eight months. So the ‘baton pass’ is occurring, the hope being is that it remains a smooth change.

 What does the data show?

Chinese economic data

  • Industrial production rose at a 6.9 per cent annual rate in August, the slowest growth since December 2008, below the forecast average (8.8 per cent) and down from the 9.0 per cent annual rate in July. Production was up by 8.5 per cent on a year ago for the first eight months of 2014.
  • In August pig iron production was up 0.2 per cent on a year ago with thermal power capacity down 11.3 per cent; computer equipment down 8.5 per cent; mobile phones down 2.3 per cent; flat glass down 3.8 per cent. But power generating equipment was up 26.3 per cent. Also of note steel was up 2.4 per cent, oil production rose 4.4 per cent and autos were up 3.1 per cent.
  • Retail sales rose at an 11.9 per cent annual rate in August, mildly below forecasts (+12.1 per cent) and down from the 12.2 per cent annual rate in July. Over 2014, annual growth has averaged 12.1 per cent. But in real terms, spending was up 10.6 per cent in August – the fastest growth in eight months. Weakest growth in August was in car sales, up by just 5.3 per cent. But communications equipment was up 31.8 per cent with medicines up 16.5 per cent.
  • In August, retail sales rose 0.92 per cent, the fastest growth in three months and in line with the average monthly growth recorded over 2014.
  • Urban investment rose at a 16.5 per cent annual rate in the first eight months of 2014, below forecasts of a 16.9 per cent increase and below the 17.0 per cent growth recorded for the seven months to July.

Previously released Chinese data

  • The M2 money supply measure rose by 12.8 per cent in the year to August, short of the forecast growth of 13.4 per cent and down from 13.5 per cent in July.
  • New Yuan lending totalled 702.5 billion in August, above forecasts of 700 billion Yuan and up from 385.2 billion Yuan in July.
  • Outstanding loans grew at a 13.3 per cent annual rate in August, up from the expected 13.2 per cent rise but down from the 13.4 per cent growth in the year to July.
  • The Chinese trade surplus rose from US$47.3 billion to a record high of US$49.8 billion in August. Economists had forecast a US$40 billion surplus. Exports were up 9.4 per cent on a year ago (forecast +8.0 per cent) while imports fell 2.4 per cent (forecast +1.7 per cent). In July, exports were up 14.5 per cent on a year earlier with imports down 1.6 per cent.
  • China’s consumer prices rose by 2.0 per cent over the year to August while producer prices fell by 1.2 per cent over the same period. Both results were softer than economist forecasts.
  • China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases its monthly economic statistics around mid-month. Quarterly GDP data is released around the 16th of January, April, July and October. China’s Customs Office releases trade data, and the People’s Bank of China releases financial statistics, around the 10th of each month. China is Australia’s largest trading partner and changes in the Chinese economic have major implications for the Aussie economy
  • The Reserve Bank has even more reason to stay on the interest rate sidelines. Just like in Australia, there is a transition in China from production-fuelled growth to that driven by retail spending. There could be blips along the way. And slower Chinese production should lead to a weaker Australian dollar, providing stimulus to Australian businesses, especially exporters and manufacturers.

What is the importance of the economic data?

  • China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases its monthly economic statistics around mid-month. Quarterly GDP data is released around the 16th of January, April, July and October. China’s Customs Office releases trade data, and the People’s Bank of China releases financial statistics, around the 10th of each month. China is Australia’s largest trading partner and changes in the Chinese economic have major implications for the Aussie economy

What are the implications for interest rates and investors?

  • The Reserve Bank has even more reason to stay on the interest rate sidelines. Just like in Australia, there is a transition in China from production-fuelled growth to that driven by retail spending. There could be blips along the way. And slower Chinese production should lead to a weaker Australian dollar, providing stimulus to Australian businesses, especially exporters and manufacturers.
]]> Chinese Economic data
  • Chinese growth drivers are shifting from industrial production to household spending.

    Chinese growth drivers are shifting from industrial production to household spending.

    Chinese economic data: Industrial production rose at a 6.9 per cent annual rate in August, the slowest growth in 5½ years (December 2008) and below forecasts. Retail sales rose at an 11.9 per cent annual rate in August, mildly below forecasts (+12.1 per cent). Real annual growth was estimated at 10.6 per cent – the fastest growth in eight months. And urban investment in the first eight months of 2014 was up 16.5 per cent on a year ago (forecast +16.9 per cent).

  • Previously released Chinese data showed: Consumer prices rose by 2.0 per cent over the year to August; Producer prices fell by 1.2 per cent over the year to August; the Chinese trade balance improved from a surplus of US$47.3 billion in July to a record high surplus of US$49.83 billion in August.

What does it all mean?

  • It seems that every country is experiencing a transition of sorts. In China, the growth drivers are shifting from industrial production to household spending. In Australia, the growth drivers are shifting from mining construction to home building and resource exports. And in the US, a transition will soon start from money printing and zero interest rates to a more “normal” monetary policy situation. The point is that these transitions may or may not go to plan. So policymakers need to tread warily.
  • There is no doubt the drop in Chinese production growth comes as a surprise. Usually economic data is not too far away from forecasts – that certainly was the case for all the other monthly variables in August. Of course surprises can happen – witness Australian employment figures over the past few months.
  • While production is now growing at the slowest pace in 5½ years, the good news is that policymakers are in a position to provide “targeted” stimulus with inflation under control. The other good news is that retail sales rose at the fastest pace in real terms in eight months. So the ‘baton pass’ is occurring, the hope being is that it remains a smooth change.

 What does the data show?

Chinese economic data

  • Industrial production rose at a 6.9 per cent annual rate in August, the slowest growth since December 2008, below the forecast average (8.8 per cent) and down from the 9.0 per cent annual rate in July. Production was up by 8.5 per cent on a year ago for the first eight months of 2014.
  • In August pig iron production was up 0.2 per cent on a year ago with thermal power capacity down 11.3 per cent; computer equipment down 8.5 per cent; mobile phones down 2.3 per cent; flat glass down 3.8 per cent. But power generating equipment was up 26.3 per cent. Also of note steel was up 2.4 per cent, oil production rose 4.4 per cent and autos were up 3.1 per cent.
  • Retail sales rose at an 11.9 per cent annual rate in August, mildly below forecasts (+12.1 per cent) and down from the 12.2 per cent annual rate in July. Over 2014, annual growth has averaged 12.1 per cent. But in real terms, spending was up 10.6 per cent in August – the fastest growth in eight months. Weakest growth in August was in car sales, up by just 5.3 per cent. But communications equipment was up 31.8 per cent with medicines up 16.5 per cent.
  • In August, retail sales rose 0.92 per cent, the fastest growth in three months and in line with the average monthly growth recorded over 2014.
  • Urban investment rose at a 16.5 per cent annual rate in the first eight months of 2014, below forecasts of a 16.9 per cent increase and below the 17.0 per cent growth recorded for the seven months to July.

Previously released Chinese data

  • The M2 money supply measure rose by 12.8 per cent in the year to August, short of the forecast growth of 13.4 per cent and down from 13.5 per cent in July.
  • New Yuan lending totalled 702.5 billion in August, above forecasts of 700 billion Yuan and up from 385.2 billion Yuan in July.
  • Outstanding loans grew at a 13.3 per cent annual rate in August, up from the expected 13.2 per cent rise but down from the 13.4 per cent growth in the year to July.
  • The Chinese trade surplus rose from US$47.3 billion to a record high of US$49.8 billion in August. Economists had forecast a US$40 billion surplus. Exports were up 9.4 per cent on a year ago (forecast +8.0 per cent) while imports fell 2.4 per cent (forecast +1.7 per cent). In July, exports were up 14.5 per cent on a year earlier with imports down 1.6 per cent.
  • China’s consumer prices rose by 2.0 per cent over the year to August while producer prices fell by 1.2 per cent over the same period. Both results were softer than economist forecasts.
  • China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases its monthly economic statistics around mid-month. Quarterly GDP data is released around the 16th of January, April, July and October. China’s Customs Office releases trade data, and the People’s Bank of China releases financial statistics, around the 10th of each month. China is Australia’s largest trading partner and changes in the Chinese economic have major implications for the Aussie economy
  • The Reserve Bank has even more reason to stay on the interest rate sidelines. Just like in Australia, there is a transition in China from production-fuelled growth to that driven by retail spending. There could be blips along the way. And slower Chinese production should lead to a weaker Australian dollar, providing stimulus to Australian businesses, especially exporters and manufacturers.

What is the importance of the economic data?

  • China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases its monthly economic statistics around mid-month. Quarterly GDP data is released around the 16th of January, April, July and October. China’s Customs Office releases trade data, and the People’s Bank of China releases financial statistics, around the 10th of each month. China is Australia’s largest trading partner and changes in the Chinese economic have major implications for the Aussie economy

What are the implications for interest rates and investors?

  • The Reserve Bank has even more reason to stay on the interest rate sidelines. Just like in Australia, there is a transition in China from production-fuelled growth to that driven by retail spending. There could be blips along the way. And slower Chinese production should lead to a weaker Australian dollar, providing stimulus to Australian businesses, especially exporters and manufacturers.

The post Shock slump in Chinese production growth appeared first on AdviserVoice.

]]> https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2014/09/shock-slump-chinese-production-growth/feed/ 0 Inflation contained; Subdued Chinese growth https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2014/01/inflation-contained-subdued-chinese-growth/ https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2014/01/inflation-contained-subdued-chinese-growth/#respond Mon, 20 Jan 2014 20:40:20 +0000 https://adviservoice.com.au/?p=27627

Inflation, Weekly petrol prices; Chinese Economic data

  • Inflation contained: The TD Securities-Melbourne Institute monthly inflation gauge rose by 0.7 per cent in December to stand 2.7 per cent higher than a year ago.
  • Petrol prices slide: According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average Australian price of unleaded petrol rose by 1.0 cent per litre to 155.1 cents a litre in the week to January 19. CommSec expects fuel prices to fall by 2 cents a litre over the next fortnight.
  • Chinese economic data: The Chinese economy grew at 7.7 per cent annual pace in the December quarter – in line with forecasts, and mildly lower from 7.8 per cent in the year to September.
  • The economy grew by 1.8 per cent in the December quarter, down from 2.0 per cent in the September quarter.

What does it all mean?

  • It’s inflation week in Australia and while the official quarterly inflation data is not released till Wednesday; the release of the monthly TD inflation gauge provides a useful backdrop in setting the inflation landscape. The December reading of 0.7 per cent was surprisingly high and lifted the annual rate to 2.7 per cent. The overall headline measures look concerning however as the TD report highlights it tends to be a “seasonally strong month” for the inflation gauge.
  • Overall inflation is pretty much under control at present. However given the falling Australian dollar, the big unknown is to what extent imported inflation lifts over coming months. Domestic inflation has been on the high side over the past year and the Reserve Bank will be looking closely at the transition between domestic and imported inflation.
  • We expect a relatively subdued quarterly increase of 0.4 per cent for headline inflation and 0.6 per cent for underlying inflation in the December quarter. Overall inflation looks likely to remain well inside the Reserve Bank’s 2-3 per cent target band in the quarter; however it may just be that the low point for inflation has been reached.
  • There are two reasons why the Chinese economic data is important. First, China is the biggest driver of the global economy. And second, China is Australia’s largest trading partner.
  • Overall it is clear that the Chinese economy remains in good shape. The world’s second largest economy growing at a 7.7 per cent annual pace, while ensuring that inflation remains well contained. It is clear that the economy has slowed modestly in the December quarter but that was largely expected given growth was relatively robust in the September quarter.
  • Whether it is production, investment or retail spending, growth rates will slow in coming years as the economy matures. But an economy of 1.3 billion people travelling at a 7.7 per cent annual pace is a sight to behold. In addition the slowdown has been engineered by policymakers to ensure that a sustainable level of growth is maintained. The focus will now shift to the HSBC/Markit “flash” January manufacturing read, out on Wednesday.
  • According to the official data, the national petrol price rose by 1 cent last week. And while motorists could do with cheaper – particularly given that the national average price was holding at 5½-year high a fortnight ago, the lift in fuel prices was largely due to the vagaries of the discounting cycle.
  • There should be better news in the days ahead. Global fuel prices have continued to fall, while the Aussie dollar has managed to strengthen modest. The wholesale price has fallen by around 3.5 cents since peaking about a fortnight ago and it should filter through to domestic pump prices in the next couple of weeks. CommSec expects fuel prices to fall by 2 cents over the next 7-10 days.
  • Interestingly the discounting cycle is at a peak (high point) across most capital cities, and should ease steadily over the next 8-10 days. The bottom line is motorists would be best served filling up the vehicle in just over a week’s time when prices head toward the lows.
  • Today’s economic data gives the Reserve Bank further reason to stay on the interest rate sidelines.

What do the figures show?

Inflation gauge:

  • The monthly inflation gauge rose by 0.7 per cent in December after a 0.2 per cent rise in November. The annual rate of inflation lifted from 2.4 per cent to 2.7 per cent.
  • The underlying rate (trimmed mean) rose by 0.4 per cent in December. The annual rate lifted from 2.3 per cent to 2.9 per cent.
  • Excluding volatile items like petrol and fruit & vegetables, the inflation gauge rose by 0.4 per cent in December after rising 0.1 per cent in November. The annual rate of inflation lifted from 1.7 per cent to 1.8 per cent.
  • TD Securities noted that “Contributing to the overall change in December were price rises for fruit and vegetables, tobacco, automotive fuel, and holiday travel and accommodation, the latter seasonal. These were offset by falls in furniture, clothing, and rent. The price of automotive fuel rose by 5.0 per cent in December, and the price of fruit and vegetables rose by 5.8 per cent.”

Petrol prices:

  • According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average Australian price of unleaded petrol rose by 1 cent a litre to 155.1 c/l in the week to January 19. The metropolitan price rose by 1.7 c/l to 154.5 c/l, while the regional average price fell by 0.3 c/l to 156.4 c/l.
  • Average unleaded petrol prices across states and territories over the past week were: Sydney (rose by 2 cents to 151.6 c/l), Melbourne (up by 1.8 cents to 152.4 c/l), Brisbane (up 2 cents to 159.1 c/l), Adelaide (up 6.1 cents to 155.9 c/l), Perth (down 1.5 cents to 154.2 c/l), Darwin (up 0.2 cents to 173.1 c/l), Canberra (fell by 0.4 cents at 158.5 c/l) and Hobart (down 0.1 cents to 162.2 c/l).
  • Today, the national average wholesale (terminal gate) unleaded petrol price stands at 144.68 c/l, down 2.3 cents a litre over the week and but still up almost 12 cents since the lows in early November.
  • Last week the key Singapore unleaded petrol price fell by US$1.40 (1.2 per cent) to US$116.00 a barrel. But in Australian dollar terms the Singapore gasoline price fell by 33 cents last week to $131.50 a barrel or 82.71 cents a litre.
  • Figures from MotorMouth show that petrol prices have hit their high point or at the peak in the discounting cycle across most capital cities at present, and should ease over the next 10 days to the lows in the cycle.

Chinese economic data

  • The Chinese economy grew at a 7.7 per cent annual pace in the December quarter, in line with forecasts and down from 7.8 per cent in the September quarter. The economy grew by 1.8 per cent in the December quarter, down from 2.2 per cent in the September quarter.
  • Retail sales rose at a 13.6 per cent annual rate in December, in line with forecasts and down slightly from the 13.7 per cent annual rate in November (fastest in eight months).
  • Industrial production rose at a 9.7 per cent annual rate in December, below the forecast average (9.8 per cent) and down on the 10.0 per cent annual rate in November.
  • Urban investment rose at a 19.6 per cent annual rate over 2013, below forecasts of a 19.8 per cent increase and below the 19.9 per cent growth recorded for the 11 months to November.
  • The TD Securities/Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge is designed to “provide a timely and accurate monthly measure of inflation in Australia”. The Bureau of Statistics only releases the Consumer Price Index on a quarterly basis.
  • Weekly figures on petrol prices are compiled by ORIMA Research on behalf of the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP). National average retail prices are calculated as the weighted average of each State/Territory’s metropolitan and non-metropolitan retail petrol prices, with the weights based on the number of registered petrol vehicles in each of these regions. AIP data for retail petrol prices is based on available market data supplied by MotorMouth.
  • China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases its monthly economic statistics around mid-month. Quarterly GDP data is released around the 16th of January, April, July and October. China’s Customs Office releases trade data, and the People’s Bank of China releases financial statistics, around the 10th of each month. China is Australia’s largest trading partner and changes in the Chinese economic have major implications for the Aussie economy.
  • The Reserve Bank would be justifiably content with the latest batch of economic data. There is nothing to suggest that official interest rates need to budge from current levels. And the expectation of a fall in fuel prices will improve household budgets and support retail activity.

What is the importance of the economic data?

  • The TD Securities/Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge is designed to “provide a timely and accurate monthly measure of inflation in Australia”. The Bureau of Statistics only releases the Consumer Price Index on a quarterly basis.
  • Weekly figures on petrol prices are compiled by ORIMA Research on behalf of the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP). National average retail prices are calculated as the weighted average of each State/Territory’s metropolitan and non-metropolitan retail petrol prices, with the weights based on the number of registered petrol vehicles in each of these regions. AIP data for retail petrol prices is based on available market data supplied by MotorMouth.
  • China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases its monthly economic statistics around mid-month. Quarterly GDP data is released around the 16th of January, April, July and October. China’s Customs Office releases trade data, and the People’s Bank of China releases financial statistics, around the 10th of each month. China is Australia’s largest trading partner and changes in the Chinese economic have major implications for the Aussie economy.

What are the implications for interest rates and investors?

  • The Reserve Bank would be justifiably content with the latest batch of economic data. There is nothing to suggest that official interest rates need to budge from current levels. And the expectation of a fall in fuel prices will improve household budgets and support retail activity.
]]>

Inflation, Weekly petrol prices; Chinese Economic data

  • Inflation contained: The TD Securities-Melbourne Institute monthly inflation gauge rose by 0.7 per cent in December to stand 2.7 per cent higher than a year ago.
  • Petrol prices slide: According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average Australian price of unleaded petrol rose by 1.0 cent per litre to 155.1 cents a litre in the week to January 19. CommSec expects fuel prices to fall by 2 cents a litre over the next fortnight.
  • Chinese economic data: The Chinese economy grew at 7.7 per cent annual pace in the December quarter – in line with forecasts, and mildly lower from 7.8 per cent in the year to September.
  • The economy grew by 1.8 per cent in the December quarter, down from 2.0 per cent in the September quarter.

What does it all mean?

  • It’s inflation week in Australia and while the official quarterly inflation data is not released till Wednesday; the release of the monthly TD inflation gauge provides a useful backdrop in setting the inflation landscape. The December reading of 0.7 per cent was surprisingly high and lifted the annual rate to 2.7 per cent. The overall headline measures look concerning however as the TD report highlights it tends to be a “seasonally strong month” for the inflation gauge.
  • Overall inflation is pretty much under control at present. However given the falling Australian dollar, the big unknown is to what extent imported inflation lifts over coming months. Domestic inflation has been on the high side over the past year and the Reserve Bank will be looking closely at the transition between domestic and imported inflation.
  • We expect a relatively subdued quarterly increase of 0.4 per cent for headline inflation and 0.6 per cent for underlying inflation in the December quarter. Overall inflation looks likely to remain well inside the Reserve Bank’s 2-3 per cent target band in the quarter; however it may just be that the low point for inflation has been reached.
  • There are two reasons why the Chinese economic data is important. First, China is the biggest driver of the global economy. And second, China is Australia’s largest trading partner.
  • Overall it is clear that the Chinese economy remains in good shape. The world’s second largest economy growing at a 7.7 per cent annual pace, while ensuring that inflation remains well contained. It is clear that the economy has slowed modestly in the December quarter but that was largely expected given growth was relatively robust in the September quarter.
  • Whether it is production, investment or retail spending, growth rates will slow in coming years as the economy matures. But an economy of 1.3 billion people travelling at a 7.7 per cent annual pace is a sight to behold. In addition the slowdown has been engineered by policymakers to ensure that a sustainable level of growth is maintained. The focus will now shift to the HSBC/Markit “flash” January manufacturing read, out on Wednesday.
  • According to the official data, the national petrol price rose by 1 cent last week. And while motorists could do with cheaper – particularly given that the national average price was holding at 5½-year high a fortnight ago, the lift in fuel prices was largely due to the vagaries of the discounting cycle.
  • There should be better news in the days ahead. Global fuel prices have continued to fall, while the Aussie dollar has managed to strengthen modest. The wholesale price has fallen by around 3.5 cents since peaking about a fortnight ago and it should filter through to domestic pump prices in the next couple of weeks. CommSec expects fuel prices to fall by 2 cents over the next 7-10 days.
  • Interestingly the discounting cycle is at a peak (high point) across most capital cities, and should ease steadily over the next 8-10 days. The bottom line is motorists would be best served filling up the vehicle in just over a week’s time when prices head toward the lows.
  • Today’s economic data gives the Reserve Bank further reason to stay on the interest rate sidelines.

What do the figures show?

Inflation gauge:

  • The monthly inflation gauge rose by 0.7 per cent in December after a 0.2 per cent rise in November. The annual rate of inflation lifted from 2.4 per cent to 2.7 per cent.
  • The underlying rate (trimmed mean) rose by 0.4 per cent in December. The annual rate lifted from 2.3 per cent to 2.9 per cent.
  • Excluding volatile items like petrol and fruit & vegetables, the inflation gauge rose by 0.4 per cent in December after rising 0.1 per cent in November. The annual rate of inflation lifted from 1.7 per cent to 1.8 per cent.
  • TD Securities noted that “Contributing to the overall change in December were price rises for fruit and vegetables, tobacco, automotive fuel, and holiday travel and accommodation, the latter seasonal. These were offset by falls in furniture, clothing, and rent. The price of automotive fuel rose by 5.0 per cent in December, and the price of fruit and vegetables rose by 5.8 per cent.”

Petrol prices:

  • According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average Australian price of unleaded petrol rose by 1 cent a litre to 155.1 c/l in the week to January 19. The metropolitan price rose by 1.7 c/l to 154.5 c/l, while the regional average price fell by 0.3 c/l to 156.4 c/l.
  • Average unleaded petrol prices across states and territories over the past week were: Sydney (rose by 2 cents to 151.6 c/l), Melbourne (up by 1.8 cents to 152.4 c/l), Brisbane (up 2 cents to 159.1 c/l), Adelaide (up 6.1 cents to 155.9 c/l), Perth (down 1.5 cents to 154.2 c/l), Darwin (up 0.2 cents to 173.1 c/l), Canberra (fell by 0.4 cents at 158.5 c/l) and Hobart (down 0.1 cents to 162.2 c/l).
  • Today, the national average wholesale (terminal gate) unleaded petrol price stands at 144.68 c/l, down 2.3 cents a litre over the week and but still up almost 12 cents since the lows in early November.
  • Last week the key Singapore unleaded petrol price fell by US$1.40 (1.2 per cent) to US$116.00 a barrel. But in Australian dollar terms the Singapore gasoline price fell by 33 cents last week to $131.50 a barrel or 82.71 cents a litre.
  • Figures from MotorMouth show that petrol prices have hit their high point or at the peak in the discounting cycle across most capital cities at present, and should ease over the next 10 days to the lows in the cycle.

Chinese economic data

  • The Chinese economy grew at a 7.7 per cent annual pace in the December quarter, in line with forecasts and down from 7.8 per cent in the September quarter. The economy grew by 1.8 per cent in the December quarter, down from 2.2 per cent in the September quarter.
  • Retail sales rose at a 13.6 per cent annual rate in December, in line with forecasts and down slightly from the 13.7 per cent annual rate in November (fastest in eight months).
  • Industrial production rose at a 9.7 per cent annual rate in December, below the forecast average (9.8 per cent) and down on the 10.0 per cent annual rate in November.
  • Urban investment rose at a 19.6 per cent annual rate over 2013, below forecasts of a 19.8 per cent increase and below the 19.9 per cent growth recorded for the 11 months to November.
  • The TD Securities/Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge is designed to “provide a timely and accurate monthly measure of inflation in Australia”. The Bureau of Statistics only releases the Consumer Price Index on a quarterly basis.
  • Weekly figures on petrol prices are compiled by ORIMA Research on behalf of the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP). National average retail prices are calculated as the weighted average of each State/Territory’s metropolitan and non-metropolitan retail petrol prices, with the weights based on the number of registered petrol vehicles in each of these regions. AIP data for retail petrol prices is based on available market data supplied by MotorMouth.
  • China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases its monthly economic statistics around mid-month. Quarterly GDP data is released around the 16th of January, April, July and October. China’s Customs Office releases trade data, and the People’s Bank of China releases financial statistics, around the 10th of each month. China is Australia’s largest trading partner and changes in the Chinese economic have major implications for the Aussie economy.
  • The Reserve Bank would be justifiably content with the latest batch of economic data. There is nothing to suggest that official interest rates need to budge from current levels. And the expectation of a fall in fuel prices will improve household budgets and support retail activity.

What is the importance of the economic data?

  • The TD Securities/Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge is designed to “provide a timely and accurate monthly measure of inflation in Australia”. The Bureau of Statistics only releases the Consumer Price Index on a quarterly basis.
  • Weekly figures on petrol prices are compiled by ORIMA Research on behalf of the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP). National average retail prices are calculated as the weighted average of each State/Territory’s metropolitan and non-metropolitan retail petrol prices, with the weights based on the number of registered petrol vehicles in each of these regions. AIP data for retail petrol prices is based on available market data supplied by MotorMouth.
  • China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases its monthly economic statistics around mid-month. Quarterly GDP data is released around the 16th of January, April, July and October. China’s Customs Office releases trade data, and the People’s Bank of China releases financial statistics, around the 10th of each month. China is Australia’s largest trading partner and changes in the Chinese economic have major implications for the Aussie economy.

What are the implications for interest rates and investors?

  • The Reserve Bank would be justifiably content with the latest batch of economic data. There is nothing to suggest that official interest rates need to budge from current levels. And the expectation of a fall in fuel prices will improve household budgets and support retail activity.

The post Inflation contained; Subdued Chinese growth appeared first on AdviserVoice.

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