What do the figures show?

• Figures released from the Reserve Bank show that the average credit card balance rose by $83.60 in February to $3,281.50. The average credit card balance is down by a record 2.5 per cent on a year ago.
• Of credit cards attracting interest charges, the average outstanding balance fell by $4.80 in February to $2,354.40. The average balance accruing interest is down 4.3 per cent on a year ago.
• The average credit card limit rose by $4.00 to $9,140.40 in February. The average credit card limit rose by just 1.4 per cent in the year to February – the slowest growth rate in 18 years.
• The number of credit card cash advances fell by 7.5 per cent in February after falling by 1.2 per cent in January (value fell by 1.3 per cent. In smoothed terms, credit card advances are down 4.5 per cent on a year ago and have consistently fallen in the past five years.
• Purchases made with credit cards rose by 2.9 per cent over the year to February. Purchases made with debit cards were up 10.6 per cent on a year ago.

What is the importance of the economic data?

• The Reserve Bank releases data on credit and debit card transactions each month. The credit card figures are useful in highlighting consumer borrowing and spending trends.

What does it all mean?

• Despite the lift in consumer confidence over the past few months consumers are being particularly savvy when it comes to paying down debt. Credit cards remain on the outer with the average credit card balance falling by a record 2.5 per cent over the past year. Interestingly the result mirrors the business survey from earlier in the week – where a record 76 per cent of Aussie businesses claimed no requirement to borrow funds.
• Not only are credit cards out of favour, but also the average credit card limit was growing at the slowest pace in 18 years. And the shift to using existing cash facilities like debit cards has been a consistent trend since the GFC. No doubt consumers still harbour a degree of reservation about what lies ahead and as such households will keep a tight rein on finances.
• Over the past week there has been a patch of soft economic data. And the Reserve Bank is likely to point to the data in maintaining an easing bias on monetary policy. Interest rates are unlikely to be cut further but given the patchiness in the economy the Reserve Bank has no justification for removing the easing rhetoric anytime soon – especially given that inflation is well contained.
• There are few indications that consumers or businesses want to take on more debt. The aversion to debt is a major challenge facing banks, stymying revenue growth.

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The big picture

• One of the biggest issues at present is the conservatism of Aussie consumers. Australians are saving again, rather than spending. And rather than buying goods on credit we are paying for goods with our own money – cash or EFTPOS.
• The changes in the behaviour of Australian consumers actually started back in 2003 with people actively winding back the outstanding balance on credit cards. And the second phase began just before the global financial crisis in mid 2007.
• The simple reason why consumers trimmed debt from 2003 was higher interest rates. In October 2003 the standard variable housing rate stood at 6.55 per cent but by mid 2008 home loan rates soared to 9.60 per cent. And while rates fell sharply as the global financial crisis took hold, it was the shock of GFC that consumers responded to rather than the attraction of lower rates.
• By April 2009, the average credit card balance was actually lower than a year earlier. In May 2002, credit card balances were expanding at a 23 per cent annual rate but in April 2009 the average credit card balance was 0.6 per cent lower than a year ago.
• Not only have consumers been cutting back on debt for some time, they have also been spending less and saving more. Over the past 25-years, retail spending has grown at a real annual rate of 4.0 per cent. Over the past five years this growth rate has slowed to just 3.0 per cent. And over the past three years, retail spending has grown at a real annual rate of just over 2.0 per cent.
• Some economists believe that consumers will quickly come to their senses in coming months that conditions are not so bad – the job market is healthy, wealth is at record highs – and so they will start spending and borrowing with gusto. But changes in consumer behaviour don’t happen overnight. The shift from spending to saving evolved over time as did the change attitude towards credit card debt.
• Reserve Bank officials don’t know how long this ‘new conservatism’ will last. In fact no one does. But the longer that consumers actively shop around for the best deals and focus more on saving, than spending, the longer the Reserve Bank can stay on the interest rate sidelines.
• Asset prices will be an important part of the equation. If the sharemarket or home prices suddenly decided to take off then the risk is that the exuberance could spill over to consumer spending.

The week ahead

• In the coming week, more pieces of the domestic ‘economic growth’ puzzle will fall into place. That is, more of the components of the December quarter GDP or economic growth figures will be released. The GDP result is not due until March 2. And in the US, the housing market will be in focus over the week.
• The coming week gets off to a reasonably slow start with no major economic data or events scheduled for Monday or Tuesday. But on Wednesday the Reserve Bank Governor delivers his first speech of 2011 while data on wages and construction activity is released at the same time.
• Governor Stevens will be speaking at a conference “Australia and the Resources Boom”. At present analysts think the Reserve Bank is unlikely to lift rates for some time, but if Stevens delivers a ‘hawkish’ address about the inflationary dangers of high income inflows then rate views may quickly change.
• The wage price index should confirm that wage pressures remain contained outside the mining sector. Overall we expect that wages lifted by 0.9 per cent in the December quarter to stand 3.8 per cent over the year.
• There is a lot riding on the data on construction work (Wednesday) and business investment (Thursday). Current indicators for the quarter have been weak with retail spending falling by 0.3 per cent. If business spending and construction work is similarly weak, then the prospect of a negative GDP reading comes into focus. Note that there is also a high risk of a negative GDP reading in the current March quarter due to the floods.
• Overall we expect a solid reading for business investment (private capital spending) with spending up 5 per cent in the December quarter after a 6.2 per cent lift in the September quarter.
• On Thursday, data on average weekly earnings is released. Now while this is another indicator of wages, the main interest is in the dollar figures provided for wages across sectors and states/territories.
• In the US, the President’s Day holiday kicks off proceedings on Monday. On Tuesday, the consumer confidence survey results for February will be provided together with the Cash-Schiller home price series and Richmond Fed manufacturing index. Home prices are tipped to ease 0.8 per cent in December but consumer confidence may have edged up from 60.6 to 61.6.
• On Wednesday, economists tip a flat reading for January existing home sales near a 5.28-5.30 million annual rate. The harsh snowstorms in the month may have distorted the results together with the new home sales data to be released on Thursday.
• Also on Thursday, data on durable goods orders is released together with regional gauges of activity covering Chicago and Kansas City.
• On Friday, the second estimate will be made for US economic growth in the December quarter. The statisticians take three attempts to get this one right and the first estimate showed the economy growing at a 3.2 per cent annualised pace in the December quarter.

Sharemarket

• The Australian earnings season clicks into top gear in the coming week. So far the results have proved very mixed. Resources companies have done well by consumer-facing businesses have struggled.  Companies have been reluctant to provide guidance, but the good news is that balance sheets are healthy with cash levels well up on a year ago.
• Amongst those to report on Monday include Amcor, BlueScope Steel, Goodman Group, Woodside Petroleum and West Australian News. On Tuesday AWE Limited, Mirvac, OneSteel, REA Group, Sonic  Healthcare, and Spark Infrastructure are scheduled to release earnings. A rash of companies will report on Wednesday including Asciano, AGL Energy, Carsales.com and APA Group. It’s another big day for earnings reports on Thursday with Fairfax, Origin Energy, Ramsay Health Care, PaperlinX, Toll Holdings and Pacific Brands scheduled to report. And on Friday Harvey Norman, GPT Group, Primeag, Woolworths, Goodman Fielder, Austar, APN News & Media and Blackmores are amongst those to report.

Interest rates, currencies & commodities

• For yet another week, all is quiet in currency land. The Aussie dollar is still holding near parity against the greenback despite comments from a senior IMF official that the Aussie may be over-valued by 5-15 per cent. Our CBA strategists still tip the Aussie peaking at US102c by March before easing to US92c by end year.
• Market-determined prices for iron ore haven’t been around too long, in fact most spot prices extend back only as far as late 2008. But despite not being in existence for long, prices have certainly been on a tear. The Platts 62 per cent iron ore index stood at just US$57.50 a tonne in early November 2008. By August 2009 prices had doubled to US$105.50 a tonne and by April 2010 prices hit fresh record highs of US$186 a tonne. After weakening in response to last year’s European Debt crisis, prices resumed their upwards run in late July 2010 and now are back at record highs of US$192.50 a tonne. Demand by Chinese steelmakers is unwavering while Indian supplies remain tight.

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• The Commonwealth Bank Business Sales Indicator (BSI) was unchanged in trend terms in December after previously falling for twelve straight months. But the weakness remains narrowly based with only five of the 20 industry sectors recording weaker sales in the month.
• The Commonwealth BSI is obtained by tracking the value of credit and debit card transactions processed through Commonwealth Bank merchant facilities.
• The BSI covers spending broadly across the economy rather than just retail sales, including spending on automobiles, personal services and airlines. The BSI has consistently underperformed against the Australian Bureau of Statistics retail trade series over the past year.

What does it all mean?

• The Commonwealth Bank Business Sales Indicator (BSI) was broadly unchanged in trend terms in December, the best reading for over a year. The BSI had previous fallen on a trend basis since December 2009. While growth in economy-wide spending remains elusive, the good news is that the majority of industry sectors are still expanding rather than contracting.
• The unchanged reading for the BSI compares with a trend decline of 0.2 per cent in November and 0.3 per cent fall in October. The trend measure of the BSI has been improving (recording smaller monthly declines) over the past five months.
• The Commonwealth BSI is obtained by tracking the value of credit and debit card transactions processed through Commonwealth Bank merchant facilities. And in line with the practice of the Bureau of Statistics with its retail trade data, seasonally adjusted and trend estimates of the BSI are obtained by applying statistical software. This allows analysis of the broader underlying trends that may be hidden in the raw data.
• A key source of encouragement in the latest data is the fact that the majority of industry sectors recorded spending growth in trend terms. In trend terms, the value of spending transactions fell in only five of the 20 industries in December, down from eight sectors in November. And the biggest industry category – retail stores – rose by 0.5 per cent in December, the fourth straight gain.
• Encouragingly, the Amusement & entertainment sector recorded growth of 0.5 per cent in December, the best reading in 14 months. The sector includes motion picture theatres, bowling alleys, golf courses and video stores.
• Both Business services and Government services have also recorded consistent growth for the past six months.

What do the figures show?

• The Commonwealth Bank Business Sales Indicator (BSI) was unchanged in trend terms in December after previously falling for twelve straight months. But the weakness remains narrowly based with only five of the 20 industry sectors recording weaker sales in the month.
• The Commonwealth BSI is obtained by tracking the value of credit and debit card transactions processed through Commonwealth Bank merchant facilities. And in line with the practice of the Bureau of Statistics with its retail trade data, seasonally adjusted and trend estimates of the BSI are obtained by applying statistical software to the raw data. The adjusted figures reveal the broader underlying trends that may be hidden in the raw data.
• Across the industry sectors, the strongest gain was recorded by Automobiles & Vehicles (includes services stations as well as car and boat dealers, tyre and auto parts stores) with sales up 0.9 per cent. Mail order & telephone order providers also recorded a 0.9 per cent rise, followed by Professional services and membership organizations (up 0.7 per cent) and Repair services (up 0.6 per cent).
• The weakest sectors in December in trend terms were Automobile & vehicle rentals (down 1.2 per cent) and Miscellaneous stores (down 0.8 per cent). Hotels and motels fell by just 0.1 per cent in December but the growth rate has consistently weakened over the past six months.
• In annual terms, eight of the 20 industry sectors contracted in December. The weakest sector was Automobile & vehicles (down by 13.2 per cent on a year earlier) followed by Mail Order and Telephone Order Providers (down 12.7 per cent) and Miscellaneous stores (down 11.5 per cent).
• At the other end of the scale, spending at Personal service providers was up 6.9 per cent on a year ago. Personal service providers include laundries, hairdressers, shoe repair and tax agents. Next strongest was Government services, up 4.4 per cent, and Professional services & membership organisations, up 4.3 per cent.
• Only two of the eight states and territories recorded monthly trend growth in December: NSW (up 0.6 per cent), followed by Western Australia (up 0.4 per cent). The job market has strengthened in recent months in NSW, serving to boost business sales. Spending was largely flat in the ACT and Tasmania. Spending fell most in Northern Territory and Victoria (both down 0.8 per cent), followed by South Australia (down 0.4 per cent) and Queensland (down 0.1 per cent)
• In annual terms, the only state/territory to record growth in December was Western Australia (up 1.6 per cent). At the other end of the scale, the spending gauge was weakest in Victoria (down 10.6 per cent) followed by South Australia (down 8.8 per cent) and Northern Territory (down 7.1 per cent).

What is the importance of the economic data?

• The Commonwealth Bank Business Sales Indicator is obtained by tracking the value of credit and debit card transactions processed through Commonwealth Bank merchant facilities throughout Australia. Credit and debit card transactions can be volatile on a month-to-month basis, affected by seasonal and irregular factors. To better gauge the direction and changes of spending across the economy, the Business Sales Indicator is tracked in trend terms.
• The monthly Business Sales Indicator has been devised to provide a more timely assessment of spending trends in the economy. The main monthly indicator of spending in the economy is the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) Retail Trade release. However these statistics cover just spending at retail establishments, and exclude spending at a raft of other businesses.

What are the implications for interest rates and investors?

• In the near term retailers will need to continue discounting in an effort to sustain activity. However whilst overall economy-wide spending remains elusive, the good news is that the majority of industry sectors are still expanding rather than contracting.
• The BSI had previously fallen on a trend basis since December 2009, meaning that the latest figures paint a much better picture for business sales as we begin the New Year. The job market has strengthened in recent months in NSW, serving to boost business sales.

The report has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. For this reason, any individual should, before acting on the information in this report, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to the individual’s objectives, financial situation and needs and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice. In the case of certain securities Commonwealth Bank of Australia is or may be the only market maker.

This report is approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399 a wholly owned but not guaranteed subsidiary of Commonwealth Bank of Australia. This report is approved and distributed in the UK by Commonwealth Bank of Australia incorporated in Australia with limited liability. Registered in England No. BR250 and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority (FSA). This report does not purport to be a complete statement or summary. For the purpose of the FSA rules, this report and related services are not intended for private customers and are not available to them.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia and its subsidiaries have effected or may effect transactions for their own account in any investments or related investments referred to in this report.

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• Petrol prices to lift further. The terminal gate or wholesale price of petrol rose by another 3 cents a litre last week to 25-month highs. Over the past fortnight wholesale petrol prices have lifted 6.5 cents but the pump price has so far only risen by around 3.5 cents.
• Credit card balances fell in October. The average credit card balance stood at a $3,244.80 in October, down $17.10 on September. The average credit card balance has been slashed by $39 in the past four months – the biggest fall in 15 years apart from the GFC period in early 2009.
• Consumers shun credit cards. Purchases on credit cards fell 2.9 per cent in October but purchases on debit cards rose 2.7 per cent in the month.
• Lending rose in October, ahead of the RBA rate hike. Total lending finance rose by 3.7 per cent in October, with all but personal finance advancing.

What does it all mean?

• Perhaps it is a Christmas present from the oil companies, but so far prices at the petrol pump have nowhere matched the lift in the wholesale (terminal gate prices). Since the lows in early October, the wholesale price has increased almost 11 cents a litre while the pump price has gained around 6 cents. Even over the past fortnight the pump price has only recorded half the gain at the refinery terminal.
• Oil companies had been lifting margins for some time, so perhaps competitive forces are working to give something back to motorists. In 2009 the difference between the terminal gate and pump price was 7.3 cents and in 2010 it was 7.9 cents. In the latest week the difference was 6.7 cents a litre.
• The bad news for motorists is that the petrol price probably will lift another 3-5 cents a litre by Christmas. While the Singapore gasoline price actually eased in Australian dollar terms last week, the Australian wholesale price hasn’t peaked and motorists have so far been spared from the higher prices.
• The monthly cost of filling up the petrol tank will probably reach $187 in late December, up $20 from mid September. Effectively this has the same effect as a quarter per cent rate hike on a $120,000 mortgage.
• Consumer conservatism was on show for all to see in the latest credit card figures. Aussie consumers reduced outstanding balances on credit cards and increasingly used their own money (debit cards) to make purchases rather than put them on credit. The point to note is that the changes preceded the Reserve Bank rate hike in November.
• The news for retailers isn’t good. The price of petrol is going up, acting like a de facto rate hike. At the same time consumers have slashed credit card debt by the most since the GFC.

What do the figures show?

Credit & debit card activity:

• Figures released from the Reserve Bank show that the average credit card balance stood at $3,244.80 in October, down $17.10 on September. The average credit card balance is up 3.3 per cent on a year earlier the slowest annual growth in eight months. Over the past four month, the average credit card balance has been slashed by $39.10. Apart from the GFC period in early 2009 this is the biggest reduction in credit card debt for over 15 years.
• Of credit cards attracting interest charges, the average outstanding balance fell by $35.50 in October after falling by $11.50 in September. The average balance accruing interest stands at $2349.80, up 4.3 per cent on a year ago (slowest growth in eight months) and up 4.2 per cent on a “smoothed” basis.
• The number of credit card cash advances fell by 3.1 per cent in October and was down 8.8 per cent on a year earlier. Credit card advances have been largely falling in annual terms for around four years.
• The number of purchases made on credit cards fell by 2.9 per cent in October after falling 0.8 per cent in September. Purchases made on credit cards were just 2.0 per cent higher than a year earlier, the slowest growth in a year.
• The number of purchases made on debit cards rose by 2.7 per cent in October to stand 17.1 per cent higher than a year ago.
• The number of just EFTPOS transactions in October (excludes cash out) rose by 2.7 per cent to stand 18.6 per cent higher than a year ago.
• Cash withdrawn from ATMs in October continued to fall in annual terms. The number of cash withdrawals was down 1.6 per cent on a year ago while the value of withdrawals fell by 2.6 per cent.

Petrol prices:

• According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average Australian price of unleaded petrol rose by 2.9 cents per litre to 128.6 cents a litre in the week to December 12. The metropolitan price rose by 2.6c/l to 128.6c/l, while the regional average price rose by 3.4c/l to 128.6c/l.
• Petrol prices across states in the past week were: Sydney (up 2.6 cents to 128.0c/l), Melbourne (up 2.8 cents to 128.6c/l), Brisbane (up 2.2 cents to 130.5c/l), Adelaide (up 3.4 cents to 128.6c/l), Perth (up 2.2 cents to 127.3c/l), Darwin (up 3.2 cents to 130.8 c/l), Canberra (up 2.5 cents to 129.4c/l) and Hobart (up 3.7 cents to 133.5c/l).
• The national average wholesale (terminal gate) price today hit a 25-month low high of 123.4 cents a litre, up 3 cents over the week. Just over two months ago (October 1) the terminal gate price stood at an 11-month low of 111.6c/l.
• Last week, the key Singapore unleaded petrol price rose by US32c (0.3 per cent) to a 25-month high of US$101.60 a barrel. But in Australian dollar terms the Singapore gasoline price fell by 68c (0.7 per cent) over the week to $103.12 a barrel.

Lending Finance:

• Total new lending commitments (housing, personal, commercial and lease finance) rose by 3.7 per cent in October after rising 2.3 per cent in September and falling 5.5 per cent in August. Lending totalled $52.2 billion in October, up 2.2 per cent over the year but up only 0.3 per cent in the past three months.
• All housing finance (owner occupier & commercial) rose by 2.8 per cent in October, the fourth straight gain but ahead of the Reserve Bank rate hike in November. However of note, loans for the construction of dwellings (investor and owner-occupier) fell by 2.9 per cent in October to be down 24.9 per cent over the year.
• Commercial finance rose by 5.2 per cent in October. Within commercial commitments, fixed lending rose by just 0.3 per cent but revolving credit soared by 17.4 per cent. Commercial loans are up 12.3 per cent on a year ago.
• Personal finance fell by 0.4 per cent in October, the third fall in four months. Within personal commitments, fixed lending rose by 1.9 per cent while revolving credit fell by 2.5 per cent. Personal loans are up 7.9 per cent on a year ago.
• Within fixed lending, all categories are higher than a year ago except refinancing (down 1.1 per cent) and residential blocks of land (down 32.9 per cent).
• Lease finance rose by 3.1 per cent in October and loans are up 9.5 per cent over the year.

What is the importance of the economic data?

• The Reserve Bank releases data on credit and debit card transactions each month. The credit card figures are useful in highlighting consumer borrowing and spending trends.
• Weekly figures on petrol prices are compiled by ORIMA Research on behalf of the Australian Institute of Petroleum. National average retail prices are calculated as the weighted average of each State/Territory’s
  metropolitan and non-metropolitan retail petrol prices, with the weights based on the number of registered petrol vehicles in each of these regions.
• Lending Finance is released monthly by the Bureau of Statistics and contains figures on new housing, personal, commercial and lease finance commitments. The importance of the data lies in what it reveals about the appropriateness of interest rate settings, confidence and spending levels in the economy.

What are the implications for interest rates and investors?

• There is no let up for retailers. Petrol prices are rising and consumers are spending warily. Retailers will need to keep discounting in order to get people to part with their cash.
• The Reserve Bank believes consumer conservatism will continue for some time yet – and based on current evidence, it looks like being right. The longer this new era of conservatism continues, the longer the Reserve Bank can stay on the sidelines.
• The latest data on construction lending and lending to buy blocks of land further points to slower home building activity ahead.

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• Credit card balances rose in September. The average credit card balance stood at a $3,261.60 in September, up $7.90 on August. The average credit card balance is up just 3.7 per cent on a year earlier –
  the slowest annual growth in seven months.
• The number of credit card cash advances in September was down 6 per cent on a year earlier. Credit card advances have been largely falling in annual terms for around four years.
• The number of purchases made on debit cards rose by 2.9 per cent in September to stand 20.7 per cent higher than a year ago.

What does it all mean?

• Aussie consumers are certainly keeping a tight hold on their wallets, and it is clear that a more conservative spending pattern has emerged over the past year. But there have been some subtle signs of thawing in the conservative behaviour that consumers have been displaying over the past year or so. In September the average credit card balance rose by a rather modest $8 and since bottoming out 18 months ago credit card balances have been steadily rising.
• Despite the modest improvements consumers still prefer using existing cash facilities than taking on additional debt. The number of credit card transaction are up 5.2 per cent on a year ago, far outpaced by the spending on debit cards which are up a healthy 20 per cent on a year ago. Even the growth in credit card balances accruing interest has been sluggish with consumers continuing to pay down debt before the interest free period expires.
• Interestingly the incremental improvements in credit card activity and balances occured during a period of interest rate stability. The $64 dollar question is what happens now given last week’s rate hike? If the consumer confidence numbers released earlier this week is anything to go by, it is like that the early signs of a recovery in spending activity is likely to take even longer to become a fully fledged recovery.
• Consumers are still shopping around for bargains, but with the job market firmer, rising equity markets and discounting by retailers expected to be a feature for some time, it is likely that activity levels should improve in the early part of 2011.

What do the figures show?

Credit & debit card activity:

• Figures released from the Reserve Bank show that the average credit card balance stood at $3,261.60 in September, up $7.90 on August. The average credit card balance is up 3.7 per cent on a year earlier – the slowest annual growth in seven months. And growth of a smoothed measure of credit card debt – the rolling 12- month average – eased from 4.6 per cent to 4.2 per cent in the month.
• Of credit cards attracting interest charges, the average outstanding balance rose by almost $12 in September after falling $8 in August. The average balance accruing interest stands at $2385.10, up 5.4 per cent on a year ago but only up 3.9 per cent on a “smoothed” basis.
• The number of credit card cash advances in September was down 6.0 per cent on a year earlier. Credit card advances have been largely falling in annual terms for around four years.
• The number of purchases made on credit cards fell by 0.7 per cent in September to stand 5.2 per cent higher than a year earlier. The number of purchases made on debit cards rose by 2.9 per cent in September to stand 20.7 per cent higher than a year ago.
• The number of just EFTPOS transactions in September (excludes cash out) rose by 3.4 per cent to stand 23.3 per cent higher than a year ago.
• The value of cash withdrawn from ATMs in September continued to fall in annual terms. The number of cash withdrawn was down 0.2 per cent on a year ago – the 18th annual decline.

What is the importance of the economic data?

• The monthly National Australia Bank business survey is valuable in providing a timely reading on the health of Corporate Australia. Key indicators of business conditions such as orders, employment, profitability and capacity use are covered together with a gauge on confidence levels.
• The Reserve Bank releases data on credit and debit card transactions each month. The credit card figures are useful in highlighting consumer borrowing and spending trends.

What are the implications for interest rates and investors?

• The frequency of the rate hikes earlier this year did take its toll on the household budget. However given that the Reserve Bank did remain on the interest rate sidelines for the past six months, there are tentative signs that conservatism is thawing. The recent rate hike may result in the recovery in activity taking longer to play out.
• EFTPOS transactions are almost 23 per cent higher than a year ago. And CommSec expects consumers to continue using existing cash facilities, rather than taking on additional debt.

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