Danny King

Investors are heading into the second half of 2026 faced with potential risks, from the ongoing US-Iran conflict, volatile energy markets, and persistent inflation, yet despite this, nine out of ten (91%) Natixis strategists are optimistic that Artificial Intelligence (AI) will continue to be the key factor driving market performance.

The 2026 Natixis Strategist Outlook, created in collaboration with CoreData, captures the forward-looking expectations of its global network of market strategists, portfolio managers, research analysts and economists across the Natixis Investment Managers affiliated group.

Nearly all strategists (97%) believe that AI will provide second and third order gains as the AI narrative expands beyond the companies that write the code, build the chips that construct the infrastructure to support it. Almost nine in ten (88%) expect the AI sector will continue to accelerate, and believe productivity gains from AI will translate into higher corporate profits (88%).

As adoption deepens across the economy, Natixis strategists’ long-term view of AI is changing, with more than two in five (45%) expecting to see return on investment on AI capital expenditure within the next year. However, there are some more immediate benefits, as over half (52%) of Natixis strategists say that IPOs in the AI sector are likely to increase liquidity in private equity.

Danny King, Country Head Australia and New Zealand said, “What we’re hearing from Australian clients is that they’re trying to balance short-term uncertainty with the need to remain invested for the long-term. While concerns around inflation, policy settings and market concentration remain front of mind, investors are increasingly focused on where the next phase of earnings growth will come from.

“For Australian investors, the key takeaway is that our strategists believe the AI opportunity is expanding beyond a handful of technology companies and increasingly being reflected across the broader economy in productivity gains, stronger corporate earnings and investment opportunities across multiple asset classes.

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Nearly all strategists (97%) believe that AI will provide second and third order gains as the AI narrative.

Investors are heading into the second half of 2026 faced with potential risks, from the ongoing US-Iran conflict, volatile energy markets, and persistent inflation, yet despite this, nine out of ten (91%) Natixis strategists are optimistic that Artificial Intelligence (AI) will continue to be the key factor driving market performance.

The 2026 Natixis Strategist Outlook, created in collaboration with CoreData, captures the forward-looking expectations of its global network of market strategists, portfolio managers, research analysts and economists across the Natixis Investment Managers affiliated group.

Nearly all strategists (97%) believe that AI will provide second and third order gains as the AI narrative expands beyond the companies that write the code, build the chips that construct the infrastructure to support it. Almost nine in ten (88%) expect the AI sector will continue to accelerate, and believe productivity gains from AI will translate into higher corporate profits (88%).

As adoption deepens across the economy, Natixis strategists’ long-term view of AI is changing, with more than two in five (45%) expecting to see return on investment on AI capital expenditure within the next year. However, there are some more immediate benefits, as over half (52%) of Natixis strategists say that IPOs in the AI sector are likely to increase liquidity in private equity.

Danny King, Country Head Australia and New Zealand said, “What we’re hearing from Australian clients is that they’re trying to balance short-term uncertainty with the need to remain invested for the long-term. While concerns around inflation, policy settings and market concentration remain front of mind, investors are increasingly focused on where the next phase of earnings growth will come from.

“For Australian investors, the key takeaway is that our strategists believe the AI opportunity is expanding beyond a handful of technology companies and increasingly being reflected across the broader economy in productivity gains, stronger corporate earnings and investment opportunities across multiple asset classes.

“The challenge is avoiding the temptation to react to every headline and short-term event, and instead maintain a diversified, actively managed portfolio that can participate in long-term structural growth themes while remaining resilient through periods of market volatility.”

Inflation and geopolitical risk

Inflation remains persistent in H2, driven by the US-Iran related spike in energy costs. Overall, almost all (97%) of strategist’s rank inflation among the top risks (70% medium and 27% high) for the remainder of the year, a notable jump from 79% on the same question in the survey last year.

Natixis’ strategists do not see the Iran war as an isolated incident. For the remainder of the year, seven in ten (70%) say that an escalation or re-escalation of the war could represent a key risk, nearly two-thirds (64%) believe a new geopolitical conflict could arise and two thirds (67%) say it is the confirmation of a realignment of the world order.

Nearly eight in ten strategists (79%) warned of a renewed energy crisis in the remainder of the year, but the consequences may not all be negative. Over two-thirds (67%) believe the war will ultimately serve as a catalyst for increased investment in renewable energy and they do not expect energy prices to revisit the extremes seen earlier in the year. Almost eight in ten (82%) believe oil prices have already peaked, none expect prices to return to the lows seen at the start of the year.

New safe havens amid uncertainty

In fixed income, investors are rethinking safety, with nearly half (48%) of strategists believing Treasuries are no longer the safe-haven they once were and more than half (55%) are saying investment-grade credit may be better positioned to play that role.

In the face of geopolitical uncertainty, inflation concerns, and market volatility, investors may be driven to cash as a perceived safer alternative than equity and bond markets. However, two-thirds of Natixis’ strategists warn that cash leaves investors exposed to inflation risk (67%), and more than half (52%) think cash may not offer sufficient returns to meet long term goals, meaning more attractive returns elsewhere in the market which could be missed (45%).

This year, strategists are concerned about forces reshaping the economic landscape. On monetary policy, nearly six in ten (58%) think the Fed will hold rates in this half, while more than half (52%) believe rate hikes are more likely for the Bank of England, and roughly three-quarters say the same for both the ECB (76%) and the Bank of Japan (76%). Fewer than half (45%) of Natixis’ strategists believe a central bank mistake poses a meaningful risk for the remainder of the year.

On trade, seven in ten (70%) of strategists say tariffs are now a long-term feature of trade assumptions, and nearly nine out of ten (88%) see opportunity emerging from deglobalisation as supply chains become increasingly regional. Nearly eight in ten (79%) believe the war in Iran will intensify competition between the US and China, yet over four in five (85%) believe the Chinese economy will remain resilient.

Opportunities in H2

Despite the political and macro shocks, global markets proved resilient in H1 2026, with the S&P, Euro Stoxx, and FTSE all generating modest single-digit returns. While the first half is a story of geopolitical disruption and economic change, Natixis strategists are sticking with the themes that have driven markets for the past two years, with two-thirds (67%) expecting US equities to outperform, more than three-quarters (76%) believe large-caps will outperform small-caps, and over eight in ten (82%) preferring growth over value.

Looking ahead, more than four in ten (42%) of strategists expect US markets to deliver the best returns in H2 2026, driven by AI and large-cap growth stocks, up from nearly three in ten (29%) who held the same view last year. Strategists favour technology as the primary source of market returns. In both the US & Asia, nearly two thirds (61%) expect IT to be the top performing sector, all other sectors trailing with 10% or less.

Read the survey.

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Hacopian Hacopian

Natixis Investment Managers Australia (Natixis IM) has announced the appointment of Rommel Hacopian to the role of Head of Wholesale Distribution, strengthening its focus on growing the intermediary market as the firm executes its next phase of growth.  Natixis IM have an ambitious product development roadmap over the next few years, launching new active ETFs and funds and bringing new affiliates to the Australian market.

Based in Sydney, and reporting to Head of Australia and New Zealand, Mr Danny King, Mr Hacopian will lead Natixis IM’s wholesale relationships. The role will focus on deepening existing relationships and expanding access to funds managed by the firm’s network of affiliated investment managers.

Mr Hacopian’s appointment supports the growing demand from Australian wholesale investors and intermediaries for broader access to specialist global investment capabilities, as they seek to build more diversified and resilient portfolios.

Danny King, Natixis IM’s Head of Australia and New Zealand, said, “Rommel is the ideal person to lead our wholesale client relationships and provide Australian investors with access to best-in-class active investment strategies through our global network of affiliated investment managers. Natixis IM has been growing rapidly in Australia over the past 3 years since entering the wholesale market, and Rommel’s deep expertise and relationships across the breadth of the wholesale channel will help more of our clients understand and access the depth of our offering.”

Rommel Hacopian, Head of Wholesale Distribution, Natixis IM said, “I’m excited to join the Natixis IM team and work closely with our clients to deliver our investment solutions and partnership capabilities. Today’s wholesale client is highly sophisticated, navigating ever changing markets conditions and operating in a complex regulatory environment with deep fiduciary obligations. What draws me to Natixis IM is the combination of the successful, quality affiliated investment managers, underpinned by the operational excellence required to support our clients across their investment and governance needs.”

Mr Hacopian brings over three decades of experience to Natixis IM. Most recently, he was Head of Intermediary at Yarra Capital Management.

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Five factors reshaping Australia’s financial advice industry.

Australia’s financial advice sector is entering a period of significant disruption. Against a fragile macroeconomic backdrop marked by conflict in the Middle East, global energy shocks, geopolitical realignment and interest rate uncertainty, five key forces are set to reshape Australia’s financial advice industry: keeping clients invested through volatility, finding efficiencies throughAI, digitalisation, an ageing client base and an ageing adviser workforce.

New research from Natixis Investment Managers (Natixis IM), conducted in collaboration with CoreData, surveyed 2,950 financial professionals across 23 countries, including Australia, to examine the challenges advisers are facing, evolving client needs, and how firms are adapting to compete and grow.

Despite these pressures, advisers remain optimistic. Australian advice businesses reported AUM growth of 14.4% over the past year and expect a further 13.8% in the year ahead. But growth is no longer driven by investment performance alone – advisers must alsodemonstrate value beyond asset allocation.

Danny King, Natixis IM’s Head of Australia and New Zealand, said: “Advisers are operating in a period of rapid change, asregulation, technology, evolving client expectations and demographic shifts converge. What is clear is that disruption is not a threat to the value advisers provide, but a catalyst for evolution.

“In today’s uncertain economic environment, working with an adviser is one of the best ways Australians can stay on track to achieve their financial goals. To succeed in the years ahead, advisers will need to show the value they add beyond asset allocation. More than ever, their ability to guide clients through volatility and keep them focused on long-term outcomes will be critical.”

Five factors reshaping Australia’s financial advice industry

1. Adapting to a changing client base

Australian advice books remain heavily skewed towards older clients. Baby Boomers (or older) account for more than half (52.7%) of clients, while younger investors remain underrepresented, with Millennials making up 12.5% and Generation Z just 2.4%, compared with 25.7% and 11% globally. As older clients move from accumulation to drawdown, advisers know they need new strategies to attract younger investors. Around 34% are integrating digital tools into their offering, more than half (53%) are adding AI capabilities to their practice, and 28% are using social media to reach younger audiences.

2. Younger clients. Younger advisers

The industry is also facing its own demographic shift, with an ageing adviser population raising succession and talent concerns. In Australia, only 42% of advisers aged 55 and over have a documented succession plan, while 28% say their firm is struggling to hire younger advisers. Despite this, only 26% of Australian advisers under the age of 55 have a documented succession plan in place to take over a retiring adviser’s business, compared with 50% globally. At the same time, the transition presents an opportunity, with 88% of advisers viewing the wave of retirements as a chance to grow assets. Realising that opportunity, however, will depend on effective succession planning, talent development and continuity for clients during periods of change.

3. Digitalisation is changing advisers’ competition base

While AI may strengthen adviser capabilities, increasingly sophisticated digital tools are also emerging as a competitive threat. Today, 71% of Australian advisers still view other advisers as their primary competition. Over the next five years, however, that is expected to shift, with 49% predicting self-directed investment tools and AI will become their biggest competitors. The changereflects evolving investor preferences, particularly among younger cohorts who are more comfortable with digital-first advice models.Even so, capability gaps remain, with 63% of advisers acknowledging they lack the digital capabilities needed to compete effectively.

4.  Finding opportunities and efficiencies in Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Of all the disruptions facing advisers, artificial intelligence may have the greatest impact on both client portfolios and advisory practices. Few advisers expect AI-driven market momentum to fade anytime soon. In fact, more than four in five (82%) believe the AI trade still has a long way to run, while 73% think AI has the potential to shape markets for the next 20 years.

Within their own businesses, AI adoption is also accelerating, with 67% of advisers already using the technology in their practice. Overall, 85% say AI can free up more time to spend with clients, while 74% are using it to write emails, take meeting notes and distribute educational materials.

However, 65% say integrating AI into existing workflows has been more challenging than expected.

5. Keeping clients invested in uncertain times

As advisers respond to the current pace of change, retaining existing assets is becoming a central challenge. In Australia, 65% of advisers say clients are holding more cash in response to uncertainty, reflecting heightened sensitivity to geopolitical risks and market volatility. This environment is also driving behavioural missteps: 77% say investors are reacting emotionally to headlines, 65% say clients are trying to time the market or chase returns, and 47% point to unrealistic return expectations.

With 84% of advisers identifying geopolitical uncertainty as a major risk, keeping clients invested through periods of volatility is becoming a critical lever for maintaining and growing assets under management.

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In his new role, King will be responsible for growing and elevating Natixis IM’s business and brand in Australia. He will oversee distribution and sales strategy for the institutional and wholesale market and work closely with Natixis IM’s range of affiliate managers to deliver actively managed solutions for clients. King will report to Fabrice Chemouny, Head of International Distribution, Natixis IM. He succeeds Louise Watson who had held the role since 2018.

As COO for Australia, Whyte will be responsible for operational and client services for the region and will report to both Danny King and Achraf Husaini, COO for Natixis IM Asia Pacific.

King joined Natixis IM in 2020 as Head of Institutional Sales, Australia and has been instrumental in developing and expanding the firm’s institutional franchise and client base alongside its affiliate investment managers.  Whyte joined in 2014 as Head of Client Service and Operations for Australia and New Zealand and has extensive knowledge of the region’s clients, support functions and operating model.

Fabrice Chemouny said: “I am delighted to appoint both Danny and Babara to their new roles, a move that reflects their combined leadership and commitment to our clients at Natixis IM. Danny’s understanding of our business over the last six years will undoubtedly serve him well as he undertakes his expanded role.  Barbara’s understanding of our client and operational needs will be instrumental in supporting Danny in the years to come. I would also like to take the opportunity to thank Louise Watson for her outstanding contribution to the business.  Under her leadership we have expanded our wholesale business, increased the diversification of our affiliate offering and launched a private equity evergreen fund. I wish her all the best in her new role.”

Since opening its office in Australia, Natixis IM has grown assets under management (AUM) by over 50% and in 2017 acquired local Australian equites manager IML. Through this initiative Natixis IM has been able to expand into the wholesale and retail channels, growing its client base to around 3000 advice businesses which are invested in Natixis IM’s affiliate retail funds across Australia and New Zealand.

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