Mario Giannini

Hamilton Lane (Nasdaq: HLNE), a leading global private markets investment management firm, published its 2025 Market Overview. This year’s report offers a nuanced picture of the global private markets landscape, backed by historical data around outperformance, downside risk and diversification benefits, as well as a burgeoning evergreen landscape, demonstrating its compelling case for a growing number of investors. In the near term, however, the report’s data indicates a downward trend in certain areas such as fundraising, valuations and short-term performance. This candid view of the challenges in today’s market offers a reminder to investors of the fundamental draws of private markets.

The firm’s annual Market Overview is a comprehensive, data-driven review and analysis of private markets investment activity over the prior year, as well as predictions for the year ahead. The detailed report leverages Hamilton Lane’s industry-leading database that encompasses data on more than 58,000 funds across 57 vintage years*. Among the report’s findings:

Where to invest

• Credit, infrastructure and secondaries: Each of these sectors is set up for success.
• Venture and growth: Investors should have exposure to these areas. AI applications will likely sweep the business landscape and many of those companies will be incubated and developed in the private markets sphere.
• Equity: In particular, the co-investment side where investors can be selective.
• U.S.: The U.S. market is expected to be relatively more attractive than all other geographies over the next 4-5 years.
• Data and technology: Invest in portfolio analytics, whether for construction or analysis.

Areas to watch

• Short-term performance: Infrastructure and real estate have done very well compared to their public counterparts; private credit has remained stable, while private equity has underperformed. But does this short-term view signal the end of private equity’s historical outperformance?

• While recent vintages will likely face challenges, manager and asset selection will play a crucial role, perhaps more so than in most market conditions. The factor that might make the biggest difference for future private equity performance is the public markets. Private markets’ outperformance is least pronounced when public markets see continued four-year annualised returns greater than 15%.
• Fundraising prediction: The next 12 months will likely bring increased challenges. Exit activity must see a meaningful rebound for fundraising to pick up. Competition is expanding, and the race to retail is on. The firms who are successfully accessing the fundraising market today are those who are investing in technology and innovative investment structures that address the demands of new audiences.
• Valuations: Hamilton Lane believes that valuations from 18 months ago more accurately reflected true values, with public markets increasing to meet the private valuations. However, the opposite trend could unfold over the next 18 months.

Strong long-term fundamentals continue

Long-term performance: As shown in the chart below, private credit has remained undefeated: 23 straight years of outperforming the public markets. Infrastructure and real estate have also maintained this trend for the past 12 or 13 years. It is only private equity buyout and real estate that saw the streak end in the last year. Hamilton Lane expects that this one-year dip is an anomaly and that, in five years, when looking at the vintage returns, the buyout IRR will have outperformed public returns in every year. Investors assuming that the last year is a window into future performance are ignoring the prior 30 years.
Portfolio construction / diversification

• Over no five-year period highlighted in the chart above did investors lose money in buyout, private credit or private infrastructure. This is one of the most unappreciated benefits of private markets exposure in a portfolio: the protection against downside risk. A reasonably diversified buyout or private credit or private infrastructure portfolio would be hard pressed to lose money. The risk in these markets does not typically stem from losing money.
• Co-investment and secondaries uptick: Co-investment activity continues to increase, driven by several factors: fewer co-investment players in the market, a desire by general partners to conserve capital in a tough fundraising environment, increased acceptance by the market of co-investment as a standard practice of doing deals, and strong returns for funds and investors who have done co-investments on a regular basis. There has been an increase in secondaries activity for some of the same reasons, as well as interest from both LPs and GPs in secondary deals as a liquidity solution.

Evergreen predictions

• Today, evergreen funds account for roughly 5% of the overall private markets. That’s about $700 billion. Hamilton Lane’s view is that, 10 years from now, evergreen will be at least 20% of total private markets. To reach that level, and assuming private markets continue to grow at their historic 11% growth rate, evergreen would need to grow almost triple that rate, nearly 30% annually.
  • The U.S. high-net-worth channel has about 1% allocated to evergreen structures today. If that figure rose to 5% or 6% over the next 10 years, that 20% overall share of private markets would be achieved.
• When it comes to evergreen, Hamilton Lane expects the following to be true:
  • Evergreen funds will grow faster than the overall rate of public markets over the next five years;
  • Institutional investors will become bigger players in the evergreen space;
  • Evergreen fund fees will decline over time;
  • Closed-end funds in certain strategies will decline and largely disappear; and
  • The growth of evergreen funds will result in the largest private markets firms getting larger and smaller private markets firms struggling to get any market share.

Mario Giannini, Executive Co-Chairman and author of the Market Overview, commented: “We believe that investors deserve high-quality data, actual transparency and continued education around this long-term asset class. And as we look at the year ahead, investors need to come to terms with the reality that there appears to be a recalibration in certain pockets of the global private markets, despite the fact that overall, the private markets are neutral right now. Longer term, we continue to have high conviction in the value of this asset class, and we urge investors to read, study and think carefully about portfolio construction and the diversification benefits that private markets have consistently demonstrated.”

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*as of 12/31/24

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The elevation of these key professionals to take on more expansive roles illustrates the firm’s strong operational foundation, investment expertise and collaborative, performance-driven culture.

“We are delighted to strengthen Hamilton Lane’s leadership team with a group of long-tenured, experienced professionals who bring innovative perspectives, strategic insights and a forward-looking, global mindset to our firm,” said Hamilton Lane CEO Mario Giannini. “In recognising and elevating this talented group, we are helping to ensure that Hamilton Lane continues to serve as a valued partner to our clients around the world, and as a steady engine of transformation and growth within our asset class.”​

• Jeffrey Armbrister has been appointed to serve as Hamilton Lane’s Chief Financial Officer, succeeding Atul Varma, who is leaving the firm to pursue other interests. Varma will continue in his role as CFO until August 8 and will remain with the firm as a senior advisor over the next several months to facilitate an orderly transition. For the last five years, Armbrister has led the firm’s Direct Equity investment business, which earlier this year closed its latest fund on more than $2 billion of investor commitments. He has been with Hamilton Lane since 2018 and brings a proven track record of transaction-based investing and operational experience leading both investment and finance teams, and working with management teams and corporate boards to execute strategic initiatives, grow businesses and solve complex problems.
• Andrew (Drew) Schardt will become a Vice Chairman of Hamilton Lane, while retaining his role as Head of Investment Strategy. In both of these capacities Schardt will continue to implement executive-level initiatives while maintaining broader leadership responsibilities across the firm’s global investment platform. Schardt will also step into the role of Head of Direct Equity, replacing Armbrister. Schardt has held a number of senior investment positions at Hamilton Lane, including on the Direct Equity team, where he began his 15-year career at the firm.
• In addition, Hamilton Lane is pleased to announce that, effective September 5, Ken Binick will join the firm as Managing Director and Head of Execution on the Direct Equity team, reporting to Schardt. Binick, who most recently served as Co-Head of the Co-Investment business at Portfolio Advisors, brings a distinguished investment track record and extensive operational, team management and transactional experience to the Direct Equity team.
• Richard Hope, Hamilton Lane’s Head of EMEA, will assume the additional role of Co-Head of Investments, alongside Tom Kerr. In this new capacity, Hope, who is based in London, will take on broad leadership and management responsibilities across the global investment platform. Hope joined Hamilton Lane in 2011 and has led the firm’s efforts across Europe, the Middle East and Africa, playing an instrumental role in advancing Hamilton Lane’s geographic expansion and in broadening its investment activities outside the U.S. Hope’s continued leadership is complementary to those ongoing expansionary efforts.

• Nayef Perry will assume sole leadership of the firm’s credit business as Head of Direct Credit, after previously serving as Co-Head alongside Schardt. Since joining Hamilton Lane in 2013, Perry has been instrumental in building the firm’s credit platform and capabilities, including management of its 25+ person global Direct Credit team. Most recently, Perry was a key driver behind the launch of the Senior Credit Opportunities Fund, an evergreen credit vehicle. His leadership mandate will include seeking new opportunities to build on Hamilton Lane’s success and continue to expand its credit platform.

The changes are effective as of August 8, 2023.

The most recent senior leadership changes follow Hamilton Lane’s appointment in May of Andrea Kramer as Chief Operating Officer. She joined the firm in 2005 and has significant experience across every facet of the business, serving as Head of the Fund Investment team, an Investment Committee member, and on a number of fund advisory boards. Prior to Hamilton Lane, Kramer worked as a General Partner at Exelon Capital Partners; as a Senior Business Development Manager for Philadelphia Gas Works; and as a Fund Manager for Murex Corporation.​

“We wish Atul well on his future endeavours and thank him for his contributions to our firm,” Giannini said. “Today, we remain focused on growing our organisation thoughtfully and strategically, on staying competitive in an ever-changing environment, and on continuing to challenge, develop and retain our talented bench of professionals to help create even greater long-term value for our clients, investors, shareholders and employees.”

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The recently launched Global Private Assets Fund (AUD) (“GPA Fund” or “the Fund”) has already received more than $134 million AUD in inflows to date from HNW investors.

Principal and Australian Country Head James Martin said the firm has been encouraged by strong investor interest, as the GPA Fund aims to meet a unique market need for local investors.

“Traditionally, there have been very few options for high-net-worth investors to access the private markets,” Mr Martin said.

“In today’s low-rate environment, investors are seeking competitive returns at both an individual and institutional level, and are increasingly interested in alternative, high-performing assets. We believe the GPA Fund fills this gap and allows Australian investors greater diversification and access to private assets which have historically been less correlated to the public equity markets.”

A unique investment offering

The GPA Fund allows Australian wholesale and HNW investors access to traditionally high-performing private markets through an Australian Unit Trust with a minimum investment of $25,000 AUD.

The Fund focuses on secondary and direct private equity and credit, across industries, investment types, strategies and geographies, allowing investors to access a diverse portfolio through a single allocation.

While private equity has traditionally been an illiquid asset class, the Fund’s structure provides investors with limited liquidity, through monthly applications and redemptions, while maintaining exposure to global private markets.

“The GPA Fund is one of the first offerings of its kind in the Australian market,” Mr Martin said. “The Fund enables us to provide an innovative way for investors to access the private markets outside of traditional, closed-end fund structures.

“We have managed highly tailored accounts, including co-investing with some of Australia’s largest industry super funds, and the GPA Fund introduces a new structure into our global product suite,” Mr Martin added.

Mario Giannini, CEO of Hamilton Lane, commented: “Hamilton Lane has nearly three decades of experience working with some of the largest and most sophisticated private markets investors around the world. Through this new GPA Fund we are able to offer a differentiated product that is now accessible to high-net-worth investors in Australia.”

Hamilton Lane has also focused on growing its local team with its most recent appointment of Principal Anastasia Di Carlo, further demonstrating its commitment to the Australian market.

Di Carlo is based in the firm’s Sydney office and is focused on client relations, including portfolio construction and strategic planning, as well as working with Hamilton Lane’s investment team for coverage of Australian private capital managers.

She has more than 12 years of experience in private capital globally, across Australia, Europe and the U.S. Prior to joining Hamilton Lane, Di Carlo was an Associate Director in the Investment team at Quentin Ayers, an Australian adviser on global private capital portfolios. She began her career at the European Investment Fund (EIF), based in Luxembourg, where she held roles in both the Private Equity Risk Management and Investment teams.

“Anastasia’s deep knowledge of private markets will be valuable as we look to build relationships with new investors and seek investment opportunities in the region,” Mr Martin said.

“The private markets in Australia continue to grow in size and importance within the global landscape and for institutional and retail investors alike, so we’re pleased to have Anastasia on board to support our growing client base as well as our investment efforts in Australia.”

In Australia, Hamilton Lane plans to continue to grow thoughtfully and strategically in this important region. Globally, the firm has approximately 375 employees across 16 offices and manages about USD $473 billion in assets under management and supervision as of June 30, 2019.

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