Nazmeera Moola

Emerging market private credit is entering a new phase of growth, with institutional investors broadening allocations beyond developed markets in search of stronger lender protections, attractive risk-adjusted returns and greater portfolio diversification.

The asset class attracted a record US$22.3 billion^[1] in deployment across FY2025—nearly 40% above the previous record set in 2022 of US$16 billion.^[2] The record deployment reflects growing institutional interest in emerging market private credit as investors broaden allocations beyond traditional developed markets.

Ninety One manages US$8.4. billion in Alternative Credit strategies. Between January 2025 and June 2026, the firm reviewed close to 1000 investment opportunities, completing over 90 transactions across 28 countries and deploying more than US$2 billion across renewable energy, digital infrastructure, logistics, transportation and industrial projects and corporates.

What’s driving the next phase of emerging market private credit?

Five structural shifts are reshaping emerging market private credit. While the asset class remains a relatively small part of the global private credit market, broader institutional participation, larger transaction sizes and rising demand suggest it is entering a new phase of development.

1. Structural financing demand continues to outpace available capital

Rapid urbanisation, energy transition, digitalisation and infrastructure investment continue to drive substantial financing requirements across emerging markets. At the same time, regulatory capital requirements continue to constrain traditional bank lending, creating significant opportunities for specialist private lenders to provide long-term financing solutions.

Nazmeera Moola, Chief Commercial Officer, Private Markets: ” The growth we’re seeing in emerging market private credit isn’t being driven by one factor. Financing needs are growing at the same time as institutional investors are looking beyond developed markets for new sources of return and diversification. That combination is creating a much broader opportunity set for private credit to provide the long-term, flexible capital that businesses and projects across emerging markets need.”

2. The relative risks of emerging market private credit are better understood by investors

Emerging markets have long been perceived as higher risk. As the market has developed, greater data, transaction history and investor experience are enabling a more nuanced assessment of relative risk. Private credit is not a homogenous market, although emerging market private credit transactions often benefit from more conservative lending characteristics than comparable developed market deals. Borrowers typically operate with lower leverage, loans are predominantly senior secured, covenant protections remain robust and transactions are frequently governed by English or US law, giving lenders stronger structural protections than are often available in developed markets.

Alper Kilic, Head of Alternative Credit: “The perception of emerging market risk has not kept pace with reality.  Private credit is not one market, and investors need to look beyond the label. In developed markets, competition has shifted negotiating power towards borrowers. Emerging markets remain a lender’s market, allowing us to negotiate strong collateral packages, comprehensive covenant protections and conservative capital structures while still delivering attractive yields.”

3. Capital in EMs is financing an increasingly sophisticated real economy

Unlike many developed market private credit portfolios, where lending has become concentrated in sponsor-backed software and services businesses, emerging market private credit continues to finance the infrastructure and essential assets underpinning long-term economic growth. As projects increase in scale and complexity, demand is also growing for sophisticated, tailored financing solutions that traditional sources of capital may be less equipped to provide.

Of the 90+ completed transactions, a third supported infrastructure and real assets, including renewable energy, digital infrastructure and telecommunications.  Of the US$2 billion deployed, US$500 million was invested through the Emerging Africa and Asia Infrastructure Fund, a Private Infrastructure Development Group (PIDG) company managed by Ninety One, including the groundbreaking development of Egypt’s and the wider MENA regions first sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production facility.

Across the wider private markets platform, Ninety One also completed its first transaction in Oman: a senior secured project finance loan, arranged alongside the IFC, to finance construction of a traceable, solar grade polysilicon manufacturing facility. Once operational, the facility is expected to be the largest single site and lowest cost facility of its kind outside China, while mitigating significant carbon emissions.  Transactions of this complexity illustrate the role private lenders can play in structuring bespoke financing for increasingly large and complex projects.

In Latin America, the firm completed 12 transactions across Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico.  These included financing the region’s largest renewable energy developer and remediating tailings at a major Chilean copper mine, building sustainable data centre infrastructure, decarbonising agricultural cold storage and extending small, socially responsible loans to Colombian pensioners through a leading microfinance provider.

4. The opportunity set is expanding, but access remains a constraint

As institutional demand grows and transaction sizes increase, access to emerging market private credit opportunities remains highly dependent on specialist origination networks and local expertise. Unlike more established private credit markets in Europe and the US, emerging markets require specialist local knowledge and relationships built over many years, creating significant barriers to entry.

During this period, the 60-strong team reviewed close to 1000 investment opportunities, allowing it to remain highly selective when deploying capital. Transaction sizes averaged US$23 million. Leverage remained stable at 3–4x, demonstrating that larger deal sizes have not come at the expense of underwriting discipline.

As transactions become larger and more complex, choosing a manager with the ability to originate, structure and lead deals is becoming increasingly important. During the period, Ninety One completed its first transaction exceeding US$100 million, acting as Mandated Lead Arranger, demonstrating the capabilities required to execute transactions of this scale.

Kilic: “Access remains one of the biggest differentiators in emerging market private credit. Our long-standing relationships with international investment banks, regional financial institutions development finance institutions, local governments and corporates enable access a broad range of opportunities, remain highly selective and, increasingly, originate and lead larger, more complex transactions.”

5. Investors are broadening beyond developed markets

As competition has intensified in developed markets, institutional investors are broadening private credit portfolios beyond North America and Europe. Emerging markets offer genuine geographic diversification and an expanding opportunity set, supported by structural financing demand, stronger lender protections and lower competition among private lenders.

Together, these trends point to a market that is becoming larger, more sophisticated and increasingly capable of supporting complex, long-term financing across emerging markets.

Moola concluded: “Emerging market private credit is at an inflection point. Investors are no longer viewing it as a niche allocation, but as a strategic part of global private markets portfolios. The next phase will be about moving from recognition of the opportunity to greater institutional allocation.”

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Notes:
[1] 2026 Industry Data & Analysis – GPCA
[2] Private credit in emerging markets surges to record, industry group says | Reuters

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Nazmeera Moola

The world needs to invest over US$4 trillion a year by 2030 if we are to reach net zero emissions by 2050.^[1] Of that, US$1 trillion is needed for the energy transition in emerging markets and developing countries^[1].

For the transition to net-zero carbon, global investors need to finance swathes of new infrastructure and industrial change among companies that produce the highest emissions today but have credible transition plans. Emerging market companies are at the heart of this transition finance opportunity.

Nazmeera Moola, Chief Sustainability Officer, Ninety One: “The battle for net zero is going to be won or lost in the emerging market corporate sector because that is where the investment is needed. By providing finance to these companies – at commercial rates – investors can tap into this long-term investment theme and make a real-world contribution to the global energy transition.”

EM economies already account for over 60% of today’s emissions but are on a trajectory to represent more than 90% of emissions growth by 2030.^[3] While EM government commitments to the transition to net zero vary and many lack ambition, plenty of EM companies are seeing this as a business imperative and a way to create a durable, competitive advantage:

Annika Brouwer, Sustainability Specialist, Ninety One: “Many EM companies are ahead of legislation or government action and are looking to build low-risk business models.”

The field of transition finance is broad. As part of the Asset Manager Asset Owner Task Force at the Sustainable Markets Initiative, Ninety One helped to develop a Transition Categorisation Framework approach across five categories. Among the three core groups, first are green investments that need to be made, new infrastructure, the new technologies; second is decarbonisation investment in high emitters that have a transition plan; and the third is investment in the enablers to the transition in other sectors. The last two relate to interim phase-outs and companies/sectors that are aiming to transition, but yet to establish a transition plan.

Moola continued: “Among both high emitters and solution providers, we already find that many companies are looking to use debt to finance the climate-oriented evolution of their businesses. Companies in this space are often competing in global markets and rely on financing solutions both from traditional channels (e.g., banks) and, increasingly, through public and private credit markets – especially as regional and local banks face more limited balance sheet capacity. We believe that debt will be the work horse of transition finance.”

Furthermore, there is a role for both public and private debt markets here. While the heavy emitters are large existing companies and tend to rely on public markets to finance their transition, the development of the technologies of tomorrow that will move the world’s economies closer to net zero is largely happening in the private sector and outside of public debt markets. Because the technology does not yet exist to enable the five critical industries that represent over 85% of global emissions (power, industry, transport, agriculture, buildings) to reach net zero, investors should also lend to smaller innovating companies that can help avoid carbon in the medium term.

Brouwer concluded: “While transition finance represents a long-term opportunity for investors, there is a significant potential benefit in being an early mover. Early investors can seek to benefit from credit spread compression stemming from cash flow growth and from improving credit quality as this field of investment moves to the mainstream and as companies that fail to transition are penalised as transition risk is increasingly priced. This has the potential to provide them with competitive returns with tangible climate benefits.”

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[1] IEA, World Energy Outlook 2022, https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2022
[2] IEA, World Energy Outlook 2022, https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2022
[3] Our world in data based on the Global Carbon Project. This measures C02 emissions from fossil fuels and cement production only – land use change is not included. Statistical difference (included in the GCP dataset) are not included here.

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Nazmeera Moola

A transition to net zero is unlikely to be neat or methodological. Evidence suggests we are at the start of a disorderly transition. How disorderly the transition becomes will be influenced by asset owners, investors, and companies’ own emission-reduction plans. The latest research paper by Ninety One, A disorderly transition^[1], argues that growth in transition investments and transition-related targets can help mitigate disorder to achieve a lasting transition to net zero.

Nazmeera Moola, Chief Sustainability Officer, Ninety One: “Reaching net zero will rely on investment in new green infrastructure as well as investment in decarbonising high-emitting companies. Both are needed to achieve real-world decarbonisation. This is especially true of the five sectors that are responsible for more than 90% of global emissions and are essential for economic growth – power, buildings, mobility, industry, and agriculture.  These industries are central to global development. Any disruption to their output will have a significant impact on the global economy. The transition, therefore, must be as orderly as possible.”

From disorderly to orderly

Decarbonisation of high emitters takes time. These companies cannot change overnight. They are capital-intensive with fixed assets and established business models that need to evolve. In most cases, new technologies will be required to help companies decarbonise. In certain countries, for example, South Africa, pronounced social issues such as employment and workers’ rights take precedence over environmental considerations. We cannot always simply put “planet” before “people”.

There is no one-size-fits-all solution for heavy-emitting sectors. Corporate environmental strategies have diverged substantially due to a range of factors, such as uncertainty around technologies, timescales and structural changes. Even within specific sectors, such as utilities, companies are setting very different courses towards net zero, with some companies far more aggressive in their pursuit of renewable energy strategies.

The chances of a more orderly transition increase with a coherent transition assessment framework that can define credible transition opportunities. Here, the Sustainable Markets Initiative’s Transition Categorisation Framework^[2] helps identify and support transition potential, and, where appropriate, sets aside problem cases. This is fertile ground for active managers seeking alpha from success stories — companies facilitating the transition rather than perpetuating the problem — and where the market does not fully understand or price in the transition potential.

Moola continued: “As credibility builds and the investment industry learns to assess transition plans, we expect asset owners to become increasingly comfortable with adopting transition-based climate strategies. The highest-emitting companies and industries require investors who can own them, challenge them on the credibility of their plans, and hold them to account over time, as they evolve.”

Transition investments for asset owners

Public companies account for the vast majority of the world’s emissions, forming an important transition universe for equity and debt. With the bulk of this transition potential sitting in the five top-emitting sectors, many companies in these sectors are household names in developed and emerging market economies. We expect transition debt to form the backbone of new capital to fund transition plans. The lower cost and flexibility of debt markets support innovation and, crucially, the ability to link lending to transition-related goals and targets. Debt will also be the most effective tool to mobilise private capital from wealthy nations towards emerging markets, where the bulk of emissions growth needs to be addressed.

The low-carbon transition will have marked macroeconomic effects – notably, the potential for higher inflation. Investment in the transition leaders across the five highest-emitting sectors could provide some inflation protection and solid returns. In the  longer term we will, we believe, arrive at a global energy system that is cheaper and less vulnerable to supply shocks.

Moola said: “It is our view that the low-carbon transition will prove Darwinian for many industries in the medium- to long term, but especially to those industries that sit at the crux of the problem. Companies in these economic areas that can successfully make the transition by either developing new technologies or through significant decarbonisation of key industrial processes stand to be rewarded by the market via enhanced access to debt and equity financing and higher market valuations.”

Conversely, companies in these emissions-intensive areas that are unable to evolve will experience the opposite. They will likely face an increasing struggle to access capital and to attract lower market multiples. This should present considerable opportunity for active managers seeking alpha generation, as winners and losers diverge sharply over the coming years. All the more so because the starting point includes sectors and industries that trade on a very significant discount to the broad market. We expect this ̒transition premium’ to manifest itself more clearly in the coming years.

Actionable steps

Transition investing is set to keep growing in importance, especially as it is becoming clearer that starving heavy-emitting sectors of capital is not going to solve the real-world problem. We believe that in core investment mandates, asset owners should assess the transition plans of their heavy emitters and commit to robust engagement with those companies to encourage and catalyse their transition. This should replace a policy of divestment from all high-emitting companies. “Clean portfolios” achieve nothing. Additionally, asset owners should consider dedicated allocations to transition strategies, both equity and debt, that specifically target the areas and sectors that need to decarbonise and incorporate robust assessment of the transition credentials of all investments in the strategy. This should include measurement of the carbon-avoided or the reduced impact of the investment.

While there will inevitably be subjectivity around the appraisal of a company’s transition plan – as there has always been around the strategic and financial plan of any company – it is important that this does not get in the way of engaging with heavy-emitting companies across the main five high-emitting sectors to drive the evolution of their business models.

Moola concluded: “Disorder is a spectrum and minimising the level of disorder is likely to have the best outcome for the planet, economic growth and, ultimately, investment performance.”

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[1] A disorderly transition
[2] Sustainable Markets Initiative’s Transition Categorisation Framework

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Daisy will be responsible for implementing Ninety One’s Net Zero commitments, across the firm and within portfolios. She will also work closely with investment teams in the development of sustainable products, as well as with clients to help inform them of the firm’s approach to sustainable investing and help them develop their approach.

Daisy joins Ninety One from the Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change (IIGCC), where she served as Programme Director.

In this role, she helped to establish the Paris Aligned Investment Initiative and spurred on more than 140 IIGCC members to commit to net zero portfolio emissions. Previously, she was an Advisor – Sustainable Infrastructure, at the Inter-American Development Bank Group, following over ten years in various climate and finance focused roles at the Civil Service. She began her career as a Researcher in Sustainable Finance for the WWF, after graduating with a Masters from both the London School of Economics in Environment & Development and from the University of Edinburgh in Politics.

Nazmeera Moola, Chief Sustainability Officer, Ninety One said: “As a signatory to the Net Zero Asset Managers Initiative, Ninety One is committed to ensuring that our portfolios achieve net zero emissions by 2050. Given our emerging markets heritage, we also understand the importance of setting net zero targets that do not depend on exclusion and divestment and can be assessed in the real economy – otherwise net zero will remain a pipe dream, as opposed to the reality we seek.

“Daisy’s deep level of experience in working within the sustainable finance sector, coupled with her passion for transforming the investment industry for the better, positions her as an ideal member of our team”.

The post Ninety One appoints Daisy Streatfeild as Sustainability Director appeared first on AdviserVoice.

This includes investment integration, advocacy, corporate transition to net zero and developing and implementing efforts to mobilise dedicated funding for an inclusive net zero transition.

Hendrik du Toit, Founder and Chief Executive, Ninety One said: “We are committed to the goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2050 and believe that the best way to achieve this is through a fair and inclusive transition. We cannot pretend that decarbonising portfolios is the same as decarbonising the world and want to ensure that no one is left behind, including emerging markets. Finance has a vital role to play in transitioning the real economy to net zero, and the time to act is now.

“Nazmeera has been at the forefront of our firm’s initiatives in this area. In her new role, she will oversee Ninety One’s investment integration, the development of our transition frameworks, commercial opportunities, and policy engagement. Nazmeera’s depth of expertise and experience give her the ideal attributes for this key role.”

Previously, Nazmeera was Deputy Managing Director and Head of South African Investments at Ninety One. Nazmeera joined Ninety One in 2013 from Macquarie First South, where she was Head of Macroeconomic Strategy.

She began her career as an economist at Merrill Lynch in South Africa and London. She graduated from the University of Cape Town with a Bachelor of Business Science degree and is also CFA® Charterholder. Nazmeera is a member of the South African Presidential State-Owned Enterprises Council, and a trustee of the Constitutionalism Fund.

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