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Podcast 33: Storm clouds continue to gather in global markets

Wed, 02 Nov 2022 21:00:00 +0000

The RBA hiked rates for the seventh consecutive month as it seeks to stifle inflation. Global central banks continue aggressive monetary tightening despite early signs of moderating inflation and weaker forward growth indicators.

With the consumer bearing the brunt of high inflation and tighter financial conditions, the RBA has backed away from aggressive rate hikes for now. Will other central banks follow, or is this a temporary reprieve?

Chris and Darren debate this and more in episode 32 of The Rate Debate.

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Podcast 32: Are central banks at risk of blowing up markets?

Wed, 05 Oct 2022 21:00:03 +0000

The RBA has now hiked rates for the sixth consecutive month. With lead indicators showing signs of inflation coming off the boil and European banks starting to see stress, cracks are forming in the credit and equity markets. Have central banks tightened too aggressively risking a recession?

Chris and Darren debate this and more in episode 32 of The Rate Debate.

Listen to the full podcast series:

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Podcast 31: No sign of pause from the RBA as the risk of mortgage stress intensifies

Thu, 08 Sep 2022 22:00:38 +0000

Australia’s central bank has now raised interest rates five months in a row. It’s the most aggressive tightening cycle since 1994. With more hikes expected, and house prices in Sydney and Melbourne on the slide, cracks are starting to appear.

Chris and Darren discuss how further rate hikes will impact the housing market, unemployment rate, and the wider economy in episode 31 of The Rate Debate.

Darren and Chris discuss this and more in episode 31 of The Rate Debate.

Listen to the full podcast series:

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Podcast 30: Can the RBA thread the needle?

Thu, 01 Sep 2022 21:55:33 +0000

After hiking for the fourth consecutive month, the RBA’s tone has shifted to suggest a pause at the September meeting is possible, reflecting in part the troubling signals emanating from markets as the US teeters on the brink of recession and conditions continue to cool across the globe.

As lead indicators continue to flash red – consumer confidence remains at alarming levels and housing is rolling over – can Australia’s central bank successfully thread the needle and avoid an outright stalling of the Australian economy?

Darren and Chris discuss this and more in episode 30 of The Rate Debate.

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Podcast 29: Leaders indicators warn of global recession

Wed, 06 Jul 2022 22:00:52 +0000

Central banks state they are not seeing signs of a recession as they continue hiking rates to curb spiralling inflation. But with forward indicators flashing red across the board, low consumer confidence, declining forward sales, the US yield curve beginning to invert, and the continued drop in the global equities, markets are telling us they see slowing growth ahead.

Will the RBA pause in August, or will they continue to tighten at the fastest rate we have seen in 30 years and drive the country into a recession?

Darren and Chris discuss this and more in episode in episode 29 of The Rate Debate.

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Podcast 27: Is the RBA risking a recession to solve inflation?

Thu, 05 May 2022 22:00:47 +0000

The RBA hikes rates by 25bps, with more set to come in 2022 as Australia’s central bank attempts to keep a grip on inflation. With oil and commodity prices set to continue to be at elevated levels due to Russia’s war with Ukraine, could a series of rapid rate hikes push the Australian economy into recession?

Darren and Chris discuss this and more in episode 27 of The Rate Debate.

Listen to the full podcast series:

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Podcast 26: How high and how fast can rates go?

Wed, 06 Apr 2022 21:55:00 +0000

The RBA expects to see economic data that will drive them to hike interest rates earlier than expected. Markets have already jumped the gun and priced future hikes into bond prices.

Is the economy as strong as central banks believe, and will interest rates go up as aggressively as the market suggests?

Darren and Chris discuss their take in episode 26 of The Rate Debate.

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Podcast 25: RBA ends QE and pushes back on rate hike

Thu, 03 Mar 2022 21:00:52 +0000

The RBA continued to keep rates on hold this month even though Inflation picked up more quickly than they expected. The length of time it took to resolve supply chain problems, which have been pushing up prices continues to be a source of uncertainty regarding the inflation outlook, as are developments in global energy markets. With Russia’s war with Ukraine continuing to play out, and the market slowly recovering from a pandemic, what’s the outlook for interest rates?

Tune in to hear Darren and Chris discuss this in episode 25 of The Rate Debate.

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Podcast 24: RBA ends QE and pushes back on rate hike

Tue, 22 Feb 2022 20:55:29 +0000

The RBA announced an end of QE and kept interest rates on hold as they wait to see stronger wage growth. If inflation continues to rise faster than forecast, and the RBA hikes earlier than expected, what could the knock-on effect be on markets?

Darren Langer and Chris Rands discuss their views in episode 24 of The Rate Debate.

Click below to go to the Yarra Capital Management website to listen to the podcast.

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Podcast 23: The reopening trade to determine economic growth in 2022

Wed, 08 Dec 2021 21:00:10 +0000

One of the key factors that will make or break the case for the RBA tightening in 2022 will be the reopening trade. Will consumers start spending heavily as is forecast, or will the threat of inflation and a rise in interest rates scare them off?

Darren and Chris discuss their views in the last episode of The Rate Debate for 2021.

Click below to go to the Yarra Capital Management website to listen to the podcast.

Listen to the full podcast series:

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