Next time you’ve got a few minutes to spare, enter the following words into your favorite search engine –investment portfolio management software. You’re likely to get in excess of ten pages of site listings which could be relevant even after you narrow down your search to Australia websites. While there is a substantial variation in what such software can achieve, the vast majority are aimed at ordinary investors on a DIY kick.

So what? You might well ask! Spend a bit more time checking out what functions some of the myriad offerings can carry out for the user and you’ll see that for just a few hundred dollars a year, it’s possible to buy software that does everything a financial adviser’s administration service offers – everything except, of course, the advice component. 

Admittedly such software won’t open the envelopes that contain the dividend statements and the like but some of the offerings are highly sophisticated.  And for a lot of ‘bored out of their tree’ retirees, for example, opening envelopes or emailed statements is hardly a stretch of intellect.

One thing that is certain, as with all facets of software, especially that with a daily interface with internet sources, investment portfolio management software will only get better; become easier for a much wider range of users to operate.

Estimates of the number of financial planners practicing in Australia vary depending on who is quoting the numbers and on how financial planner/adviser is defined.  That said, it could be as high as 15,000 or so and you can be sure, whether it be 10,000 or 15,000, they won’t all be able to outperform the market year in year out – no matter how well educated and experienced they are.

So, from that standpoint alone, GFC or no GFC, any financial planner basing a business service model on superior investment returns to the adviser ‘down the road’ is on the proverbial ‘hiding to nothing’. It’s a doomed model. The fact that retail investment portfolio management software is so widely available and with such high levels of functionality, suggests that more and more consumers – people who might otherwise be clients of financial planners – are across the fact that professional advisers have their investment return limitations. The bottom line is that it’s an expanding market.

There will always be people who want to manage everything for themselves; always has been and always will be the case. However, increasingly, people who might not have otherwise had a predilection for managing their money will have heard and read enough bad press about financial advisers/planners to have no qualms about doing it themselves.

With very cost effective, high level, software readily available; with public perception dented by the GFC, the outrageous ‘Storm’ debacle, crooked advisers and incompetent advisers, why won’t more and more consumers see managing their money themselves as a real option?  It’s easy to retort that most retirees won’t know how to use the software and you would be right – for now.  Looking ahead, the tail-end of the baby boomers is far more computer literate than their parents – and the Gen Xs and Gen Ys, generations raised on keyboards, will have no issue with using retail money managing software.

Let’s throw in another barrier to entry for people becoming clients of financial advisers – an emerging view that the role of equities in the global financial system will be reducing over the next ten years. As the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) recently stated: As emerging-market households attain a level of income that enables them to purchase financial assets, they are becoming a powerful new investor class, whose choices will help determine global demand for different asset classes. The actions of these new investors will, in turn, shape how businesses obtain the capital they need to grow, how other investors around the world fare, and how stable and resilient economies will be.

So how do financial advisers stake out a claim to their share of an increasingly competitive environment; an environment seemingly making way for more and more with new entrants all chipping away at the market? They very neatly fit into the face to face, high level, personal service space, delivering so-called very ‘high touch’ service to clients is the one area where software cannot gain ground on financial advisers.

Some things we can be sure of…people:

• Can get tired/bored
• Can get sick or injured
• Can become widowed
• Die
• Can get scared of making financial decisions
• ….and so on.

And this is where advisers fill a breach that software will never be able to. It’s that one to one human communication; the capacity to show genuine concern, to have empathy, to personally sign letters, to telephone and strike up a conversation and the like that only an adviser can provide.

Financial planning in Australia is going through another major transition driven by the ongoing effects of the GFC and the Future of Financial Advice Reforms.  These are forces are full-frontal in adviser’s face and easy to identify.  But advisers cannot afford to ignore the threats lurking away at the edge of their ‘peripheral vision’ which have the potential to weaken their businesses over the longer term.

Nothing will forestall software development but advisers who get on the front foot with service delivery will better withstand a diminution of their market share as investment software becomes more widely available and more user friendly. However, don’t be lulled into thinking that service delivery is simply a regimented programme of when certain things are done for clients.  While having service systems in place is vital, the overarching theme is about building, fostering and retaining relationships with your clients.

As the old song says: “People who need people – are the luckiest people in the world”.

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• The Vanguard Australian Shares High Yield ETF (ASX code: VHY):  Seeks to match the return (income and capital appreciation) of the FTSE ASFA Australia High Dividend Yield Index (before fund fees and expenses). The FTSE ASFA Australia High Dividend Yield Index generally comprises approximately 60 securities listed on the ASX with higher forecast dividend yield relative to other companies listed on the ASX. VHY has a fee of 0.25 per cent p.a.

• The Vanguard MSCI Australian Large Companies Index ETF (ASX code: VLC):  Seeks to match the MSCI Australian Shares Large Cap Index (before fund fees and expenses). The MSCI Australian Shares Large Cap Index targets coverage of around 70 per cent of free float-adjusted market capitalisation of the Australian share market. VLC has a fee of 0.20 per cent p.a.

• The Vanguard MSCI Australian Small Companies Index ETF (ASX code: VSO): Seeks to match the MSCI Australian Shares Small Cap Index (before fund fees and expenses). The MSCI Australian Shares Small Cap Index is a small capitalisation index generally consisting of the smaller companies on the Australian equity market targeting coverage of around 14 per cent of free float-adjusted market capitalisation of the Australian share market. VSO has a fee of 0.30 per cent p.a.
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• The Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (VAS) has been reduced from 0.27 to 0.15 per cent p.a.; and,
• The Vanguard Australian Property Securities Index ETF (VAP) has been reduced from 0.34 to 0.25 per cent p.a.
  x

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There is always the danger that commenting on the economic and market impacts of an event such as the Sendai earthquake and the subsequent tsunami can be seen as trivialising the event; somehow downplaying the enormous human suffering. Nevertheless, there are consequences for the economy and for markets that require a considered response, without diminishing our horror and deep sorrow at the human cost of the catastrophe.

As this piece is being written, the official death toll in Japan stands at 3,373, and is expected to climb well above that figure. A series of explosions at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant has raised grave fears of a nuclear disaster. In the financial markets, share prices in Tokyo have now fallen by nearly 20% since the close of trade prior to the earthquake. Share prices across the region are also sharply lower today – particularly as  developments at the nuclear plant have worsened. The yen has strengthened against the US Dollar, perhaps reflecting speculation about, rather than actual, repatriation of Japan’s offshore assets.

It is too early for anything more than educated guesses to be made about the short-term negative impact on Japan’s economic performance, not least because the extent of the radioactive leakage from the Fukushima plant is highly uncertain. According to estimates from Barclays Capital, the affected area accounts for over 6% of Japan’s GDP, 6.8% of the population, and 7.2% of Japan’s private sector capital stock. At this point, analyst estimates of the initial adverse impact on GDP are utterly unreliable, as are estimates of the likely boost to measured economic growth that will result from the repair and reconstruction work. That said, it is still worth noting that all such catastrophes produce both an initial adverse impact on recorded economic growth, and then add to measured growth as the recovery work gets underway.The timing and the magnitudes involved are of course uncertain and highly variable.

What follows is our assessment of what the catastrophe might mean for the Japanese, world and Australian economies, and how MLC portfolios have been affected.

For Japan, the broad impact of the disaster on growth is likely to follow the pattern outlined above, however, there are broader issues at work also. Japan’s fiscal position is already dire, and the Government’s share of the reconstruction and recovery effort is likely to put enormous pressure on the nation’s finances. It is highly likely that taxes will need to increase, at least temporarily, to fund at least part of the cost and that is likely to have an adverse impact on private demand, which has been anaemic to begin with.

While Japan is the world’s third largest economy, the global recovery has not depended on Japan for its momentum – the contrary is true. Japan’s recovery has been highly export dependant. As Capital Economics puts it, Japan has been a passenger in the global recovery and not the main driver. The world is still a highly uncertain place, and there were ample issues to worry about prior to the quake and tsunami (peripheral Europe, the Middle East etc.). In saying this, the world economy is perhaps better able to withstand the kind of shocks currently being experienced than it was two years ago.

For Australia, Japan is still a major trading partner – the Australian Bureau of Statistics merchandise trade data show that in 2010 Japan took 19% of Australia’s goods exports by value, with resources accounting for the lion’s share. The short-term disruption to Japan’s industrial activity is likely to curb demand for Australia’s exports in the short term, however, the recovery effort is likely to be resource intensive, and provide something of a boost to our exports to Japan over time. At this point, we see no reason to change any medium-term view about the likely performance of the Australian economy or financial markets.

At MLC, our portfolios are extremely well-diversified across asset classes, investment managers, countries, industries, and individual securities. In the event of a catastrophe such as this, diversification is perhaps the only protection available to investors, but nevertheless, portfolios have been adversely affected, although some exposures within portfolios will actually have fared quite well.

In global equities, Japan accounted for 8.6% of the MSCI All-Country World Index at the end of February 2011. All except one of MLC’s global managers have Japanese exposure (Sands Capital being the exception). The overall portfolio, however, is underweight in Japan.

Moreover, MLC’s Japanese equity holdings have fared substantially better than the overall Japanese market, reflecting the high quality, and somewhat defensive nature of our holdings. While many of the Japanese companies we invest in will experience disruption to their businesses, it is also important to recognise that many Japanese companies are highly globalised, with production facilities and operations across many countries. The major car companies are an obvious example.

Our global listed real estate portfolios also have Japanese exposure, and some of the Australian REITs we invest in also have assets in Japan. Reports so far suggest that our exposure to the main affected areas is minor.

Australian shares have also fallen in value in recent days, and individual stocks we hold in MLC’s Australian shares strategy will have been affected – both adversely and positively – by the events in Japan. Among the insurance stocks we hold, QBE has already announced its exposure to Japan and its share price has suffered somewhat. However, its exposure is modest when viewed in the context of its overall reserves; the impact on MLC’s portfolio has been minor. On the other hand, other holdings in the portfolio, such as Bluescope steel has seen its share prices fare relatively well in the aftermath of the quake. In addition, MLC’s portfolio is significantly underweight resources stocks that have fallen further than the overall market in recent days, and has little or no exposure to the smaller uranium stocks, where prices have plummeted.

Within MLC’s debt portfolios, our exposure to Japanese debt securities has been minimal, reflecting the very low yields on offer in the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) market. Our exposure to Japanese corporate securities is virtually non-existent as spreads over JGBs have been way too tight to attract the interest of our managers.

Prior to this disaster a number of investment managers – both those we currently engage and those we do not – have expressed a view that Japanese equities were attractively valued, and even some traditionally cautious, value-oriented managers have noted that they were seeing opportunities in the Japanese market for the first time in many years. The market contains many quality companies with truly global franchises that will survive this disaster, and eventually continue to prosper. Moreover, there is a chance that this crisis will bring about the kind of decisive policy action that could help end Japan’s twenty-year long economic malaise. Please forgive the harsh end to this briefing note, but the role of our active managers, is to look through the human tragedy and seek out opportunities that inevitably arise in the wake of disasters, and that is just what they will be doing.

The post Investment Briefing March 2011: Japan appeared first on AdviserVoice.

• Their overweight home loan portfolios
• Their regional outlook
• Their recent dividend performance

Sydney-based international equities manager, Insync FM, does not hold any banks in its 25-stock portfolio of the Insync Global Dividend Growth Fund. Why is that?

For Insync FM, banking stocks simply do not make the grade for investment at this stage. The key reasons are:

• Banks have too much leverage  – Insync FM can get the same return from a stock like Nestle with no leverage without buying a bank that is running at 10 – 20 times leverage
• Banking is a commodity business – it is hard to differentiate their products from each other. Thus, where is the pricing power? How will it add to their share price or dividends?
• Consumers are deleveraging and therefore banking profits won’t be benefiting from a quick uptick in consumer borrowing
• More Government regulation for banks means higher capital and liquidity requirements which will eat into profits. Have we seen the full effects yet of Basel III on bank profitability? We think not.
• Banks can face liquidity troubles well before insolvency issues become a concern for an economy, e.g. Ireland and Iceland. Therefore investors need an above average return to compensate for the added risk.

“Many banks are well run but there are better international companies for a global portfolio at this time. You could not look at any developed market banks, particularly Australian banks, and comfortably add them to a high-conviction global portfolio given their risk profiles and their recent cuts to dividends. Anyway, it would be difficult to rate any Australian banks as truly global given their overweight home loan portfolios and their regional outlook,” said Mr Monik Kotecha, CIO of Insync FM.

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Australian-owned sector ETF provider, Australian Index Investments (Aii), believes that with the growth in energy costs worldwide that it might be time for investors to tilt their portfolios towards this growth sector. With a basic underlying energy shortage, rising global demand and revolution in the Middle East, triple digit oil prices are very possible.

“With oil prices on the rise maybe now is the time to consider a higher energy stock exposure for portfolios. An easy and cheap way to implement an energy strategy is via the Aii Energy ETF, which is listed on the ASX.

“The Aii Energy ETF contains oil majors such as Woodside Petroleum, Origin Energy, Santos and Oil Search.  The basket of energy stocks in the sector is currently 22. Interestingly, the sector ETF does not just include oil producers but also offers exposure to explorers and service companies supplying the energy industry,” said Annmaree Varelas, CEO, Australian Index Investments.

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Years in development, the ‘Next Generation’ approach combines a robust investment philosophy and framework with quality advisers, expert research, investment personnel and strong supporting technology and systems.

John McMurdo, Centric Wealth CEO, said the ‘Next Generation’ approach is the amalgamation of the best available investment thinking and advice practice, and will offer investors the benefit of reliable financial outcomes through a range of varying market conditions. It amounts to the application of institutional grade investment practice, customised to the individual requirements of clients and their portfolios.

“Centric has invested heavily over the last two years to develop this holistic approach and address some of the issues that investors worldwide experienced during the GFC,” he said.

“Many of these issues, in our view, arose from an unquestioning attitude to accepted investment theory and practices which, in some circles, continues today.

“In terms of content and philosophy, our new approach challenges that thinking. Then, in its practical application, it goes on to encompass every stage of the advice chain, so our clients can be sure that they experience benefits at every point of contact with Centric Wealth.

“So, for example, it includes the research that underpins our advice, the client adviser relationship and the many considerations addressed there, right through to the tools and other support used to execute and manage a client’s affairs effectively. It’s a more sophisticated overall methodology to match the more complex and sophisticated needs of today’s investors.”

Mr McMurdo went on to explain that the new approach is based on dynamic asset allocation and a ‘real-world’ concept of risk management that is a far cry from conventional ‘mean variance’ methods that are so demonstrably flawed.

Chris Cuffe, Non-Executive Centric Wealth Director, said, “It’s no secret that investors remain wary even two years after the height of the GFC. As a consequence, many may have missed out on gains due to lack of confidence both in advice and the markets.

“The problem is, for many investors to achieve their financial goals, they will need greater returns than so-called ‘safe’ havens, such as cash, can offer. It seems clear that they need to feel confident that they are being well and ably advised before they make any investment moves. Centric’s focus is on giving investors this confidence.”

At today’s launch event, attendees were taken through the ‘Next Generation’ approach in detail, with presentations from Ashley Owen, Chairman of Portfolio Construction Committee – Investment Research, Centric Wealth and Brett Sanders, Director of Portfolio Construction and Management  covering  the investment philosophy and framework and its integration into a progressive investment process that includes complementary advice and practice management.

Late last year, Centric Wealth lifted the bar for the financial advice industry when it released its own standards for best practice financial advice, The Centric Wealth Professionalism in Financial Advice Standards. Centric’s ‘Next Generation’ approach represents an extension of that ‘best practice’ philosophy and another major leadership move in the industry.

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In a significant deal for the private equity sector, Archer Capital has announced an agreement to sell the Cellarmasters Group to Woolworths Ltd for an enterprise value of $340 million. Cellarmasters is one of the largest direct-to-home wine retailers and providers of contract bottling and wine services with operations in Australia and New Zealand. The deal is expected to complete in May, subject to regulatory approvals.

Jon Schahinger, Managing Director of ING Private Equity Access Limited (ING PEAL) congratulated the Archer Capital team on the deal.

“This is an excellent result in a difficult market environment. Archer has again delivered a strong return – almost 3 times the investment’s cost over its four year holding period and above its recent carrying value,” Mr Schahinger said.

The other, smaller transaction is the sale by NBC Capital of its investment in Troncs Holdings, a Queensland trucking business. While, the business has been affected by the volatile Queensland weather conditions, it has been sold for approximately 1.2 times its original cost.

These two deals add to the previously announced sales of Bledisloe Holdings by Propel Investments and Tegel Poultry by Pacific Equity Partners which should be completed over the next few months.

“It is pleasing to see the continued flow of realisations that will return cash to the company” said Mr Schahinger.

“We are aware of a number of other sale processes underway which could only enhance this great start to the year. The portfolio is in good shape overall and we look forward to announcing further positive news in the months ahead,” he said.

More details on ING Private Equity Access Limited and its investments can be found at www.ingpeal.com.au.

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In its first quarter update to investors, the AAIC has decided to maintain a neutral stance on Australian equities, hold an overweight to income securities and maintain listed property allocations at zero across all of Implemented Portfolios’ individually managed accounts.

According to AAIC member Jon Reilly, Australian Equities will be supported by continued demand for resources from China, India and other emerging markets, whilst the banks may have slow growth but will still provide solid returns underpinned by their dividends.

“This quarter we have determined to move towards a lower allocation in international equities, but will do gradually, taking advantage of further strength to lock in returns.”

“This is consistent with our investment strategy of buying when we view classes as fair value or undervalued and selling incrementally as they become more expensive,” Mr Reilly said.

Continuing to favour income securities over cash, the AAIC has held its overweight position and maintains a preference for securities issued by the major banks.

The committee’s assessment of A-REITs last quarter was that they were expensive and the outlook was likely to remain subdued. This assessment has not changed in the first quarter, and the portfolios have now moved to a 0% allocation to listed property.

“The AAIC’s decisions this quarter reflect the continued need to be cautious. We have positioned the portfolios defensively but will add to equities allocations when valuations become more attractive. On balance the portfolios will continue to capture the growth from Australian equities, and consistent distributions from the income securities exposure.” he said.

“In 2011 we expect there will be continued sluggish economic growth in the developed world, and significant risks from managing the build up of debt in those countries. Whilst growth rates will be better in emerging markets we are conscious that valuations are no longer as attractive as they once were, which will likely suppress longer term returns.”

The AAIC is comprised of a team of professional managers that make implementation and investment decisions for Implemented Portfolio’s range of Individually Managed Accounts. The quarterly update is the AAIC’s long term assessment of each asset class amid the broader context of the economic environment and investment markets.

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Aviva Investors Direct SMA product offering was developed following extensive consultation between Aviva Investors and key stakeholders.  Overwhelmingly, advisers called for a product that took into account the regulatory and fee pressures being placed on their businesses. In particular, emphasis was placed on providing advisers with a wholesale priced, direct share offering for their individual retail and SMSF clients.

“Aviva Investors has developed a product offering that meets the needs of investors and has provided more transparency, at a lower cost to clients. The response since being launched late last year has proven the gap in the market for this type of product,” said Aviva Investors Head of Retail, Andrew Peterson.

“The Aviva Investors Direct SMA product provides the SMA benefits of transparency and tax effectiveness, via two low cost, actively managed portfolios designed to integrate into an adviser’s business.  From the response we have received, it is obvious these offerings resound with investors,” Mr Peterson said.

SMAs provide investors with beneficial ownership of the underlying stocks in the portfolio and investors therefore receive many of the benefits of direct share ownership – along with the advantage of having their individual accounts managed by a professional investment manager.

As part of the Direct SMA offering, Aviva Investors provides access to two equity model portfolios. The Dividend Builder Model Portfolio designed for income focused investors and the Core Opportunities Model Portfolio designed for capital growth focused clients.

The Dividend Builder Model Portfolio:

• Low turnover, high yielding portfolio – well suited to the SMA environmentAviva, investment, investment
• Emphasis on securing franked income and minimising stock turnover
• Benefits from a large, well resourced and experienced investment team
• Invests in high yielding Australian shares that will grow their dividends over time
• Low management fees

The Core Opportunities Model Portfolio:

• Invests in an unconstrained portfolio of top investment ideas
• Concentrated portfolio of 15 to 25 stocks
• High conviction, large-cap focus
• Low management fees
• Targets high levels of capital growth for long term investors

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Top financial services experts provided investors with an optimistic view of the current financial climate at the PortfolioConstruction Forum Markets Summit 2011 which took place in Sydney yesterday.

Having reflected on the current economic position of the world, experts from around the globe provided the high profile attendees with their unique insight into what is – and what is not – an investment bubble, and what that means for constructing portfolios.

Joe Bracken, Head of Macro Strategies, BT Investment Management

“Classic mean-variance optimisation may not protect you during bubbles since it tends to put you into assets with higher expected returns – typically the inflating one!  Adding alternatives to your portfolio should help with performance stability. Overweight equities and alternatives and underweight bonds seems to be a sensible starting point.”

Bob Baur, MD & Chief Economist, Principal Global Investors

“The US and world economies have embarked on an economic expansion that has the potential to be better and last longer than the consensus expects.  The biggest risk is inflation, now in emerging markets and within a couple of years in developed countries.  Portfolios should be adjusted to account for the new environment.”

Steve Keen, Associate Professor, University of Western Sydney

“The dominant economic force is OECD nations deleveraging from excessive private debt, and Australia avoided as serious a downturn as the rest of the OECD by delaying the deleveraging process. Renewed deleveraging now that the house price bubble is ending will counter the stimulus from China.

“Our house price bubble dwarfs that of the USA, and Australian households are now more debt-encumbered with much higher interest rates. Government policy helped light the fuse and Ponzi lending by the financial sector provided the fuel. Prices will deflate as the rate of growth of mortgage debt slows, with negative impacts on aggregate demand and employment.”

Kumar Palghat, Managing Director, Kapstream Capital

“The US economy is turning the corner – the housing back log will be cleared and employment data is improving. The FED will continue to maintain easy monetary policy. Risk assets should continue to do well (equities, commodities, hedge funds, High Yield, etc) but bond markets are starting to sell off as safety of bonds is no longer required.  Solutions for European debt problems are in the works, and the US recovery continues to be very bullish for Asia which already has overheating economies.”

Anthony Kirkham, Head of Investment Management, Western Asset Management

“Investors need to be aware that there is a difference with bonds – it is important that they do not confuse Aussie bonds with those of other Governments. There is opportunity in Australian bonds and corporate bonds.”

Chris Joye, Managing Director, Rismark International

“It is absurd to suggest that it is likely Australian house prices will fall by 40%, or that house price declines will accelerate. While the next year or so will be relatively weak, Australia’s housing market will yield investors solid through-the-cycle total returns, as it has done over the last 30 years.”

Jacob Mitchell, Portfolio Manager, Platinum Asset Management

“There is real inflation risk not being addressed by governments in emerging markets in part. This needs to be factored into our investment planning.”

Sean Fenton, Portfolio Manager, Tribeca Investment Partners

“The outlook for the Australian equity market is positive with all of the key drivers remaining supportive.  Valuations are attractive, liquidity is abundant and economic growth around the world is either stable or improving.  The growth recovery leads us to generally favour cyclicals, but mainly those with global exposure.  The tightening moves in China do raise the risk of a near term correction in commodities so we remain neutral on resources.  The commodity boom is a boost for the Australian economy, but comes with higher rates and acts as a brake on a highly geared consumer.  We tend to favour mining services and financials for domestic exposure.”

Ric Deverell, Director – Commodities, Credit Suisse

“We are currently seeing major structural change as a result of, for example, another 3billion people entering the global economy in the last 10 or so years and consequent demand. This is going to last for multi decades until supply ultimately meets demand.”

The Summit was a platform for many debates and attendees were witness to diverse presentations throughout the day. However, in summing up, Tim Farrelly, Principal, farrelly’s noted a big shift from previous expectations that emerging markets would lead recovery. The discussion instead outlined surprise improvements in developed markets with potential risks in the emerging markets.

The overall outlook throughout the Summit was one of cautious optimism. The global financial leaders expected positive economic conditions in the three to five year outlook, with expected bumps further down the line.

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