Oil prices have responded to political volatility in the Gulf.

In 1973, Egypt and Syria launched a surprise attack on Israel during the Jewish religious festival of Yom Kippur. The swift arrival of arms from the US helped Israel repel the assaults.

Opec nations, upset at US support for Israel, cut oil production and placed a sales embargo on the US and any European country that helped Washington funnel arms to Israel. Oil prices surged nearly 400% over the next 12 months in what became known as the first oil shock of 1973-74.  The result was the stagnation of the 1970s.[1]

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• Global share markets pushed higher over the last week helped by mostly good economic news, notably this time from China, and the possibility of a diplomatic solution with respect to Syria.
• In Australia, the boost to confidence from the change in Government was evident in higher readings for consumer and business confidence, a rally in the share market and a slight gain in the $A. While other factors also played a role in the share market gain, eg global share markets also rose, confidence has been a missing ingredient in the Australian economy in recent times so if the new Government can maintain higher confidence levels by implementing a program of lower taxes, smaller government and less regulation resulting in a more business friendly environment then it will help drive Australia’s path back to stronger growth. The likelihood that a mix of independents and minor parties to the right of the Coalition will control the balance of power in the Senate increases the chance that the new Government will get its legislative program through Parliament.
• The further surge in the Australian share market pushed the ASX 200 to its highest since June 2008 and the accumulation index (which takes account of capital growth plus dividends) rose above its November 2007 all-time record. While shares are vulnerable to a short term correction, the combination of reasonable valuations, low interest rates and easy money and the anticipation of an upswing in economic growth and profits next year is likely to push the share market up to around 5350-5400 by year end with further gains likely next year.
• In the US, the focus is now turning to Congressional negotiations regarding a new Budget (required by October 1) and an increase in the debt ceiling (required by mid-October). Expect the usual cantankerous argy bargy between both sides of politics to cause bouts of financial market nervousness ahead of the usual last minute deal. With the US budget deficit having fallen to 4% of GDP (from a 2010 peak of above 10%) it will be harder for the Republicans to push too hard without risking alienating the public, which they probably don’t want to do ahead of mid-term elections next year.

Major global economic events and implications

• Chinese data for August was unambiguously positive with stronger exports, industrial production, power generation, retail sales and fixed asset investment, solid growth in money supply and lending and all at the same time that inflation is low. Momentum in China appears to have bottomed and is on track for 7.5% growth this year. This is good for global growth but also provides support for commodity producers like Australia.
• A pickup in exports is also starting to appear in other emerging countries including Korea and India and is consistent with an improvement in broad global growth momentum.
• Meanwhile the problems in parts of the emerging world are a long way from over with Indonesia hiking interest rates yet again to defend the Rupiah and fight inflation, but which will only make the growth outlook worse,
• It was a quiet week on the data front in the US. Weekly jobless claims fell but this was distorted by two states failing to file. Consumer credit was weaker than expected, small business optimism fell very slightly, and weekly mortgage applications fell highlighting the ongoing impact of the rebound mortgage rates that has resulted from the back up in bond yields. US mortgage rates are now running around 4.6% compared to a low in May of 3.4%.
• While Eurozone industrial production fell in July, the rising trend in manufacturing PMIs suggests this is an aberration with the recovery likely to resume.
• Japanese economic data was somewhat messy with June quarter GDP growth revised up to 3.8% annualised and bankruptcies down but mixed readings on business conditions and sentiment.

Australian economic events and implications

• Apart from the poor jobs report, Australian data releases over the last week were positive. The deterioration in the labour market in response to the sub-par growth of the last year was clearly evident in August with jobs falling for the second month in a row and unemployment rising to 5.8% which is just below its post GFC peak. Labour force underutilisation is now at its highest since 2002. Unfortunately, falling job ads and business hiring plans point to a further deterioration ahead. The soft labour market with higher unemployment still to come highlights that the risks for interest rates remain on the downside. However, the labour market is always a lagging indicator and leading indicators released over the past week were more upbeat with a continuing rising trend in housing finance and solid gains in both business and consumer confidence. While the bounce in confidence owes much to the change in Government they are nevertheless welcome news given the important role confidence plays in driving the economy.
• More broadly, four factors have played a role in holding the economy back over the last few years: relatively high interest rates, the high $A, China worries and the political mess. We have now seen relief on all these fronts.

Major market moves

• Share markets had a good week helped by good economic data from China and signs that a diplomatic solution will be found for Syria.
• Commodity prices mostly fell on nervousness ahead of the Fed’s taper decision despite stronger Chinese data.
• The Australian dollar rose helped by a combination of strong data from China and a post-election boost to confidence. The gains were partly reversed though as poor jobs data kept alive the prospect of another rate cut.

What to watch over the next week?

• In the US, we expect the Fed to announce that it will be scaling back its monthly asset purchases from $US85bn to $US75bn. Such a move will hardly come as a surprise as the Fed has been warning of its since May and a September taper has become the market consensus expectation. The softer than expected August jobs report means that such a move is not a done deal, but on balance the run of data released recently suggest that the US economy has picked up pace enough to withstand a lessening in the pace of stimulus. However, because growth is still far from robust the Fed is likely to indicate the pace of quantitative easing will not be reduced in a straight line and that interest rates are unlikely to be hiked until some time in 2015 at the earliest. Its dovish forward guidance is likely to be focussed on pushing back against the recent back up in bond yields. To avoid pressure on mortgage rates it’s also more likely to cut back purchases of bonds as opposed to mortgage backed securities. Finally, it’s worth stressing that tapering its QE program is not the same as a monetary tightening – it will just be equivalent to cutting interest rates at a slower rate.
• On the data front in the US, expect a modest rise in industrial production (Monday), benign inflation (Tuesday), a slight fall back in the NAHB homebuilder conditions index (Tuesday), a further rise in housing starts (Wednesday) but a slight fall in existing home sales (Thursday). Manufacturing surveys for the NY and Philadelphia regions are expected to show continuing strength.
• In Europe, the German Federal election (Sunday 22 September) is most likely to see the return of Angela Merkel as Chancellor with the main uncertainty relating to whether she will lead a coalition with the Free Democrats (as at present) or the Social Democrats (as over 2005-09). Either outcome is unlikely to pose a threat to Germany’s relationship with the rest of the Eurozone and so is unlikely to have significant investment market implications, beyond any initial kneejerk response.
• In Australia, the minutes from the RBA’s last Board meeting (Tuesday) will be watched closely to see whether the explicit easing bias that was removed from the post meeting statement in August, but returned with the August minutes only to be left off from the post meeting statement two weeks ago will be returned again. It would make sense for the RBA to make it clear that it retains an easing bias because it helps maintain downwards pressure on the $A without necessarily having to do anything. A speech by Assistant Governor Malcolm Edey will also be watched for clues regarding interest rates.

Outlook for markets

• After a strong run up, shares are at risk of a short term correction as we go through the seasonally weak period of September/October and given various worries including the Fed’s taper decision, the German election, coming budget and debt ceiling negotiations in the US, the nomination of the next Federal Reserve chairperson and various imbalances in the emerging world and remaining risks involving Syria.
• However, any pullback is likely to be modest and just another bull market correction which should be seen as a buying opportunity as the broad trend in shares is likely to remain up. Valuations remain reasonable, monetary conditions are set to remain easy well into next year, and profits are likely to improve next year as global and Australian growth picks up. So by year end we see further upside in global and Australian shares with gains continuing next year.
• Government bond yields have increased too far too fast and could stabilise or even decline a bit, particularly if the Fed presents dovish forward guidance when it decides to start tapering. However, still low yields and an unwinding of years of massive inflows into bond funds point to poor returns ahead.
• The $A looks to be undergoing a short covering rally which could take it to around $US0.95/96. But once this has run its course and extreme short positions have been unwound the downtrend is likely to resume.

By Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist

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Important note: While every care has been taken in the preparation of this document, AMP Capital Investors Limited (ABN 59 001 777 591, AFSL 232497) and AMP Capital Funds Management Limited (ABN 15 159 557 721, AFSL 426455) make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in it including, without limitation, any forecasts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This document has been prepared for the purpose of providing general information, without taking account of any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. An investor should, before making any investment decisions, consider the appropriateness of the information in this document, and seek professional advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation and needs. This document is solely for the use of the party to whom it is provided.

The post Weekly market & economic update – week ending 13 September appeared first on AdviserVoice.

• While share markets mostly rose over the past week helped by a delay to action regarding Syria and on the back of more evidence that the global economy is improving, gains were limited as bond yields rose sharply as stronger US data fuelled expectations that the Fed will start to taper its monetary stimulus this month.
• In Australia, the focus in the week ahead will likely be on the aftermath of the Federal election which if the polls and betting agencies are correct will see a new Liberal/National government. Based on stated policies, key policy changes under a Coalition Government are likely to be the abolition of the mining and carbon taxes, reduced company tax but offset by a levy on large companies to pay for paid parental leave, a refocusing in government spending towards infrastructure, a delayed increase in the superannuation contribution, smaller government, a greater focus on returning the budget to surplus and a range of inquiries (including into the labour market and productivity) which will likely pave the way for less regulation and more economic reform. The likely change in Government towards what would appear to be a more business friendly approach will probably provide a boost to confidence and past experience points to a post-election bounce in shares. This has averaged 5.4% over three months for elections since 1983. However, much will depend on whether conservative forces gain control of the Senate – the prospect of a double dissolution election next year would not go down well – and how hard the new Government goes in cutting spending with an announcement on this front likely in November.
• While an attack on Syria has been delayed it still looks likely with a key US Senate committee approving it, on the grounds its limited and tailored and doesn’t involve troops on the ground. It now goes to a Congressional vote on September 9. As with all US led military interventions in the Middle East, the concern is that it will lead to a wider confrontation threatening oil supplies. Given this it wouldn’t be surprising to see further share market weakness and oil price strength in the run up to any strike, even though Syria only produces 300,000 barrels of oil a day. This is consistent with past experience which saw share market weakness/oil price strength in the run up to interventions followed by a recovery in share markets from around the time it commences. The 1991 Iraq invasion, the December 1998 bombing of Iraq, the March 2003 Iraq invasion and the March 2011 Libyan bombing saw US shares fall 5.6%, 3.5%, 14% and 6.3% respectively in the run up only to see the losses recovered within two months. A similar pattern could be expected this time around, particularly as it becomes clearer that any intervention will be limited and that surrounding countries are unlikely to become involved.

Major global economic events and implications

• US economic data was mostly positive, adding fuel to expectations that the Fed will soon start to slow its monetary stimulus. The ISM manufacturing conditions index improved further in August, the non-manufacturing ISM rose to its highest since 2005, labour market indicators improved, construction spending rose solidly and auto sales rose to their highest since 2007. However, higher mortgage rates and higher oil/gasoline prices are clearly a bit of a headwind for US growth and so if the Fed slows its monetary stimulus following its September 17-18 meeting, as appears likely, it may only cut it back by $10bn a day.  
• Final Eurozone business conditions PMIs confirmed the recovery already evident in the flash readings. As expected the ECB and the Bank of England left monetary policy unchanged but with the ECB retaining a dovish bias. Italy remains a risk point though with the threat remaining that members of Berlusconi’s party will withdraw support for the Government if Berlusconi is forced out of his Senate seat.
• In Japan, the Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged but Governor Kuroda made clear it can respond if a planned hike in the GST impacts growth. The Yen fell through 100 to the $US as a result.
• Chinese business conditions PMIs mostly improved in August or stayed around solid levels, adding to confidence that 7.5% growth remains on track for this year. House prices continued to rise in August but the new Chinese leadership seems to be less concerned about it, perhaps concluding that demand curbs are ineffective and the only solution is via increases to supply.

Australian economic events and implications

• In Australia, June quarter GDP data showed that growth remains sub-par at 0.6% quarter on quarter or 2.6% year on year, the same pace it has averaged since the June quarter 2012, reflecting soft consumer spending and investment. The bad news is that growth is below the pace necessary to stop unemployment rising, but the good news is that growth has not collapsed. Other indicators presented a soft picture as well with retail sales very weak, business conditions PMIs still soft and the trade balance back in deficit.
• However, there are some positive signs: house prices continue to rise, building approvals rebounded in July consistent with an ongoing recovery in dwelling construction, household savings remain high at 10.8% indicating a significant buffer in household budgeting, productivity growth is solid at 2.2% and inflationary pressures are weak with falling real unit labour costs and a benign reading on inflation from the latest TD Inflation Gauge.
• The RBA surprised no one in leaving interest rates on hold. What was surprising though was that its post meeting statement was virtually identical to that from last month leaving out yet again any explicit easing bias. As a result it has yet again missed an opportunity for a free kick in pushing the $A down. The risks still point down though for rates particularly if the $A holds up from here, economic data remains soft and the post-election Government embarks on more spending cuts.

Major market moves

• Share markets mostly rose on the back of good economic data and the delay to any attack on Syria, but with gains limited as Fed tapering looks likely this month. Australian and Japanese shares fell slightly.
• While the $A rose earlier in the week as the RBA left out any explicit easing bias from its post meeting statement and GDP growth was fractionally stronger than expected, its gains were limited as the $US strengthened.
• Bond yields rose sharply in most major countries, including Australia, as stronger US data fuelled expectations for Fed tapering. US and Australian ten year bond yields rose to their highest since 2011.

What to watch over the next week?

• Globally, Syria will probably be the big one to watch with the US Congressional vote on approving a US strike. Don’t expect much from the G20 leaders’ summit though, other than the usual hot air from such events – it’s unlikely to have any impact on what the Fed does or on what the US does regarding Syria.
• On the data front the focus is likely to be on China though with key activity data due Tuesday likely to show that the improvement in growth evident in July continued into August. In particular, growth in industrial production is likely to have continued to edge higher rising 9.9% year on year, up from a low of 8.9% in June. Meanwhile, inflation (Monday) is likely to show a slight moderation on the back of a fall in food prices.
• In the US, it’s a pretty quiet week till Friday when August retail sales are expected to show a 0.3% gain and producer price inflation data is expected to remain benign. Consumer confidence data will also be released.
• In Australia, the aftermath of the election will likely dominate. On the data front though it will be interesting to see whether the NAB business confidence survey (Tuesday) and the consumer sentiment survey (Wednesday) show an improvement on prospects for a change of Government. Odds are they probably will. Expect an ongoing rising trend to be evident in housing finance data (Monday) but another round of soft jobs data (Thursday) with employment likely to be flat and unemployment rising to 5.8% from 5.7%.

Outlook for markets

• Shares are vulnerable over the next month or so with various events and risks that could trigger investor nervousness including the Fed’s September meeting where it will likely start to taper its monetary stimulus, US Government funding and debt ceiling negotiations, the nomination of the next Federal Reserve chairperson, various imbalances in the emerging world, a likely military intervention in Syria, political instability in peripheral Eurozone countries and post-election fiscal tightening in Australia.
• However, a pullback should be seen as a buying opportunity as the broad trend in shares is likely to remain up: valuations are not dirt cheap but they are not expensive either; monetary conditions will remain very easy with interest rate hikes a long way off in the US and in other developed countries and interest rates still at risk of falling further in Australia; and the gradually strengthening global growth outlook points to stronger profits ahead. So by year end we see further upside in global and Australian shares.
• Despite the bond sell off so far this year, sovereign bond yields still remain low and point to low medium term returns from bonds as yields gradually adjust higher in response to the improving global growth outlook. An unwinding of years of massive inflows into bond funds though runs the risk of causing a more aggressive rise in bond yields and hence losses on sovereign bonds.
• With commodity prices in a downtrend and the Australian economy deteriorating versus the US, it’s likely the $A will fall further. Given its overvaluation in terms of relative prices and costs, expect the $A to fall to $US0.80.

————–

Important note: While every care has been taken in the preparation of this document, AMP Capital Investors Limited (ABN 59 001 777 591, AFSL 232497) and AMP Capital Funds Management Limited (ABN 15 159 557 721, AFSL 426455) make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in it including, without limitation, any forecasts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This document has been prepared for the purpose of providing general information, without taking account of any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. An investor should, before making any investment decisions, consider the appropriateness of the information in this document, and seek professional advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation and needs. This document is solely for the use of the party to whom it is provided.

The post Weekly market & economic update – week ending 6 September appeared first on AdviserVoice.

• Share markets had another volatile week with concerns about a strike on Syria weighing on confidence, and emerging market assets, particularly currencies, coming under significant pressure.
• The concern in the run up to any US led military involvement in the Middle East is that it will lead to a wider confrontation threatening oil supplies. It’s no different in the case of Syria with worries that it may draw in Iran or Israel. So even though Syria is just a tiny oil producer (about 300,000 barrels a day) the talk of intervention has contributed to a small spike in oil prices and share market jitters. While such concerns invariably are not realised, past experience points to share market weakness/oil price strength in the run up to any intervention followed by a recovery in share markets from around the time it commences. The 1991 Iraq invasion, the December 1998 bombing of Iraq, the March 2003 Iraq invasion and the March 2011 Libyan bombing saw US shares fall 5.6%, 3.5%, 14% and 6.3% respectively in the run up to the events only to see the losses recovered within two months afterwards. I would expect a similar pattern this time around, particularly as it becomes clear that any intervention will be limited and that surrounding countries are unlikely to become involved.
• Meanwhile, the rout in emerging markets, and notably the currencies of India and Indonesia, continued with Fed taper fears combining with current account and budget imbalances to worry investors. Both Indonesia and Brazil hiked their benchmark interest rates again to combat inflation and support their currencies and this will only further weaken their growth outlook making them even less attractive to foreign investors in the short term. This problems in the emerging world look like having a way to run yet.
• More broadly, Syria and emerging world uncertainty has added to an already longish worry list for investors in the short term that includes the Fed’s taper decision, coming negotiations to fund the US Government and raise its debt ceiling, the nomination of the next Fed Chairperson, the German election, political instability in peripheral European countries and the prospect of a post election fiscal tightening in Australia. This vulnerability is enhanced because September is normally the weakest month of the year for US shares (with an average monthly decline of 0.8% since 1985) and October is normally the weakness month of the year for Australian shares (with an average monthly fall of 0.7% since 1985). As a result, shares remain at risk of further weakness in the month or two ahead. However, most of these worries should ultimately be resolved in an unthreatening way allowing a strong rebound in share markets into year end as seasonal strength returns.

Major global economic events and implications

• US economic data was mixed highlighting the difficult decision the Fed will face at its September 17-18 meeting in terms of whether to taper its monetary stimulus or not. On the positive side consumer confidence and house prices rose, jobless claims fell and June quarter GDP growth was revised up from 1.7% to 2.5% thanks to stronger contributions from trade and inventories. But against this, durable goods orders were weak (albeit with a still reasonable underlying trend) and pending home sales slipped again. Higher mortgage rates and now higher oil/gasoline prices are clearly a bit of a headwind for US growth. The net result may be that the Fed will either delay the start of tapering till later in the year or alternatively just cut it back by $10bn a day.  
• German, French and Italian business confidence readings confirmed the ongoing recovery in the Eurozone.
• Japanese data for July was mostly favourable with falling unemployment, a rise in the jobs to applicant ratio, growth in household spending, a solid bounce back in industrial production with a higher August PMI pointing to more strength and fading core pressures. Abenomics looks to be working albeit it’s a slow process.

Australian economic events and implications

• In Australia, while business investment rose a much stronger than expected 4% in the June quarter, this masked a decline in plant & equipment investment which is what feeds into GDP estimates. More importantly business investment plans were revised down for this financial year and now point to a 1% fall in investment this financial year using a comparison of past investment intentions with actual outcomes or an 11% fall based on a comparison of investment plans for 2013-14 with those made for 2012-13 a year ago. However, whether it’s a 1% fall or an 11% fall the outlook for business investment is poor with weakness pretty much across the board, highlighting the need for further monetary easing in Australia.
• Meanwhile, credit growth remained subdued in July albeit with signs of a bottoming and there was mixed news in relation to housing with a fall in new home sales but another rise in housing affordability to its best in a decade pointing to an ongoing housing recovery ahead.
• The June half profit reporting season is now essentially complete. Results have been weak but not as bad as feared and dividends have increased by 10% which partly explains why the Australian share market has performed reasonably well in August. Overall, results have been a little bit better than expected with 39% of companies exceeding analyst expectations as against 27% missing expectations. 64% of companies have seen their profits rise from a year ago and 60% of companies have increased their dividends from a year ago as against only 12% which have cut them. And while corporate outlook comments have been subdued, the fact they haven’t been too gloomy is a good sign.
• Consequently, and because the bad news had already been factored in we haven’t seen the earnings downgrades some had feared. Earnings expectations for 2012-13 are little changed at -0.5% (with resources earnings down by around 21% but with earnings for the rest of the market up by around 6%). And for 2013-14 earnings growth expectations remain around 13%, made up of a 35% gain for resources and 8% growth for the rest of the market. As a result of increased dividends from resources stocks, dividend growth ran much stronger than earnings last financial year, rising by around 10%. Reflecting the better than feared results and increasing dividends, 53% of companies have seen their share price outperform the market on the day their results were released. Key themes are ongoing cost control and weak revenue growth, but a prospective boost to profits from the lower $A and for iron ore companies from a higher iron ore price. Strong dividend growth reflects both a degree of comfort with the profit outlook along with pressure from shareholders for increased dividends.

Major market moves

• Shares had a rough week, not helped by worries about a strike on Syria and problems in some emerging countries.
• Commodity prices were mixed with gold and oil up on Middle East uncertainty, but metal prices down.
• A stronger $US and weaker metal prices saw the $A fall.
• Bond yields fell in the US, Germany, Japan and Australia partly as a bit of safe haven buying crept back in.

What to watch over the next week?

• In the US, the focus is likely to be on the manufacturing conditions ISM (due Monday) and payroll employment data (Friday) as guides to whether the Fed will commence tapering its monetary stimulus this month. Both may not provide decisive readings though with the ISM expected to slip slightly to 54 from 55.4 and payroll employment growth expected to be around 180,000 which is solid but not overwhelmingly strong. The Fed’s Beige Book of anecdotal indicators along with trade data and the non-manufacturing ISM will also be released.
• In the Eurozone, final manufacturing PMIs (Monday) and services PMIs (Wednesday) are expected to confirm the recovery already reported in the flash estimates. The ECB and the Bank of England are both likely to leave monetary policy unchanged when they meet Thursday, but indicate they retain easing biases.
• The Bank of Japan is also expected to leave monetary policy unchanged on Thursday.
• In Australia, the focus will no doubt be on the election to be held on Saturday 7^th September. The RBA meets Tuesday but, given the proximity to the election and its signal that another interest rate cut is not imminent, rates are likely to be left on hold. However, the post meeting statement is likely to retain an easing bias, particularly with the capex outlook weakening further and inflation benign, which the RBA is likely to act upon at its October or November meetings unless the $A falls rapidly.
• On the data front expect a solid bounce in July building approvals after a sharp fall in June, soft June quarter company profits and continued modest growth in RP Data’s house price series (all due Monday), continued weak growth in retail sales (Tuesday) and June quarter GDP growth (Wednesday) to have remained subdued at 0.5% quarter on quarter or 2.4% year on year. While consumer spending and building activity look to have been weak in the June quarter, trade is likely to have provided a modest boost to GDP growth. Data for the June quarter current account deficit, the trade balance and the AIG’s business conditions PMIs will also be released.

Outlook for markets

• Shares are vulnerable over the next month or two with various events and risks that could trigger investor nervousness including the Fed’s September meeting where it may start to taper its monetary stimulus, US Government funding and debt ceiling negotiations, the nomination of the next Federal Reserve chairperson, various imbalances in the emerging world, a possible military intervention in Syria, political instability in Italy and the election in Australia.
• However, a pullback should be seen as a buying opportunity as the broad trend in shares is likely to remain up: valuations are not dirt cheap but they are not expensive either; monetary conditions will remain very easy with interest rate hikes a long way off in the US and in other developed countries and interest rates still at risk of falling further in Australia; and the gradually strengthening global growth outlook points to stronger profits ahead. So by year end we see further upside in global and Australian shares.
• Sovereign bond yields still remain low and point to low medium term returns as yields gradually adjust higher in response to the improving global growth outlook. An unwinding of years of massive inflows into bond funds though runs the risk of causing a more aggressive rise in bond yields and hence losses on sovereign bonds.
• With commodity prices in a downtrend and the Australian economy deteriorating versus the US, it’s likely the $A will fall further. Given its overvaluation in terms of relative prices and costs, expect the $A to fall to $US0.80.

——————–

Important note: While every care has been taken in the preparation of this document, AMP Capital Investors Limited (ABN 59 001 777 591, AFSL 232497) and AMP Capital Funds Management Limited (ABN 15 159 557 721, AFSL 426455) make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in it including, without limitation, any forecasts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This document has been prepared for the purpose of providing general information, without taking account of any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. An investor should, before making any investment decisions, consider the appropriateness of the information in this document, and seek professional advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation and needs. This document is solely for the use of the party to whom it is provided.

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