Thomas Lillelund

Companies are increasingly at risk from surging business interruption losses due to concentrated production, fragile supply chains, geopolitical tensions, inflation, and growing technology dependencies. According to a new analysis from Allianz Commercial, the average total value of a business interruption claim now exceeds €850,000. This is around 70% higher than the corresponding average property damage claim of close to €500,000, demonstrating that the financial consequences of being unable to operate can substantially exceed the cost of repairing the damage that caused the disruption.

The report analyzes 7,888 business interruption insurance industry claims with a total value of approximately €6.74bn, or US$7.82bn, from January 1, 2021, to December 31, 2025. Although claims frequency has remained relatively stable, the average value of claims increased by over 30% annually during the past two years.

“Business interruption and supply chain risk remains elevated and volatile. The operating environment is challenging with geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, cyber-related incidents, and growing dependency on technology such as artificial intelligence (AI). The scale of physical damage alone no longer determines the ultimate cost of a business interruption. Even a relatively contained incident can have consequences across production networks, customers and markets. Businesses therefore need to identify and better understand not only their own critical assets, but also those of the suppliers, technologies and infrastructure on which their operations depend,” says Thomas Lillelund, CEO of Allianz Commercial.

Fire is the dominant cause of loss

Fire and explosion is the costliest cause of business interruption claims, accounting for more than 40% of the total value analyzed, equivalent to approximately €2.9bn, or US$3.3bn. Fire was responsible for nine of the 10 costliest man-made business interruption events in the dataset and was the most expensive cause of loss in markets including Germany, Singapore, Hong Kong, the UK and the US. One case illustrates how losses can escalate beyond the original incident: a fire at a small manufacturing unit caused relatively limited physical damage but severely disrupted downstream operations, ultimately resulting in a nine-figure group-wide business interruption loss. Natural catastrophes are the second-costliest cause, representing 34% of the value of claims analyzed, and the most frequent, accounting for 26% of claims. Together, fire and explosion and natural catastrophe events generated more than 75% of total claim value.

However, events that do not involve natural catastrophe activity remain the principal overall business interruption loss driver, accounting for 74% of claims and 66% of their total value.

Recovery is taking longer and costing more

Some natural catastrophe claims are developing over increasingly long periods. Two years after Hurricane Helene in September 2024, many associated business interruption claims remained unresolved, not due to coverage issues, but because affected companies had not yet fully recovered. Supply chain delays, labor shortages, and volatile material costs can extend both recovery and settlement.

Concentrated production is also amplifying losses. Industries can depend on a limited number of specialist sites, suppliers or regions for critical materials and components, allowing a fire, cyber incident or extreme weather event at one location to cascade through global supply chains. The two costliest non-natural catastrophe events in the analysis involved fires at semiconductor factories.

Underinsurance also remains a key risk as declared values can be inadequate due to factors such as inflation, highlighting the importance of regular review to ensure it reflects current operating conditions.

“What we increasingly see in Asia is that the size of a business interruption loss is often determined less by the initial event and more by the speed at which an organization can recover. Whether the trigger is a fire, flood, equipment failure or disruption at a key supplier, businesses operating in highly interconnected supply chains can face prolonged operational and financial consequences.

“Businesses should also regularly review their declared values and business interruption exposures to ensure they accurately reflect current revenues, costs and operating conditions. Inflation, supply chain disruption and longer recovery periods have increased the risk that declared values may no longer be adequate when a major loss occurs. The most resilient companies are those that understand their critical dependencies in advance and have practical recovery plans that can be activated immediately,” adds Charlotte Field, Regional Head of Short-tail Claims at Allianz Commercial Asia.

Cyber disruption broadens the risk landscape

While ransomware remains the leading cyber-related cause of disruption, a growing share of loss activity is also being driven by cloud outages, software failures and incidents at third-party technology providers. More than 48,000 outages were tracked across cloud and software services in 2025 alone, highlighting businesses’ rising dependence on digital supply chains. High-profile incidents, including attacks on software providers and logistics platforms, demonstrated how a single cyber event can disrupt thousands of organizations simultaneously. As companies become more reliant on cloud services, AI and third-party technology providers, cyber-related business interruption is becoming a more significant and complex source of loss.

“In today’s interconnected economy, preventing business interruption is no longer just about protecting individual sites. While companies have made progress in understanding their supply chain exposures, prevention remains the most effective form of risk management. Investments in fire protection, natural catastrophe resilience, cyber preparedness and business continuity planning can make a meaningful difference to both the duration and severity of a business interruption loss. Even relatively modest investments can significantly reduce the impact of disruption when it occurs,” explains Alberto Barani, Business Interruption Group Leader, Risk Consulting at Allianz Commercial.

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Thomas Lillelund

Artificial intelligence is driving one of the largest infrastructure investment cycles in decades, but the rapid global build-out of data centers is also creating a new era of construction, operational, climate and insurance risks, according to the latest Allianz Commercial The data center construction boom: risks and claims trends report.

Annual investment in data centers is projected to double from around US$500bn in 2024 to more than US$1trn as early as 2027. The investment opportunity extends far beyond server halls to electricity generation, grid infrastructure, cooling, networking, and semiconductors. According to Allianz Research, the US and China are expected to account for around 62% of new global capacity additions through 2030, but the next wave of investment is becoming increasingly global.

In Europe, Germany, the UK and Ireland remain major markets, but faster expansion is expected in Spain, Finland and Denmark, where power availability and permitting conditions can be more favorable. Across Asia Pacific, excluding China, installed capacity is projected to increase from around 9GW today to more than 28GW by 2030, with Malaysia expected to grow more than tenfold.

“AI is turning the latest generation of data centers from a specialist real estate asset into mission-critical infrastructure,” says Thomas Lillelund, CEO of Allianz Commercial. “The scale of investment is extraordinary and, as these centers evolve beyond traditional data storage to high-performance compute demands, success will increasingly depend on resilience: access to power, reliable supply chains, robust construction controls, as well as climate-aware site selection and insurance programs that reflect the true accumulation risk. Indeed, comprehensive insurance cover has become a prerequisite for financing many large-scale AI infrastructure projects.”

Resilience must be central to data center operations

he sector’s biggest constraints are increasingly physical rather than financial. Competitive advantage is increasingly determined by access to electricity, grid connections, permitting, specialized equipment and skilled labor. In the US alone, the construction industry faces a shortage of around 439,000 skilled workers, while an estimated 349,000 additional workers may be needed in 2026. Climate resilience is increasingly a strategic consideration rather than an operational afterthought. Around 79% of global data center capacity is already located in areas exposed to heightened natural catastrophe risk, while 54% is exposed to chronic heat and drought stress. Some of the fastest-growing AI infrastructure markets are also among the most climate-exposed, including Northern Virginia, US, Johor in Malaysia, and Marseille, France. Acute flood, wildfire and wind exposure is highest in the Americas, affecting 86% of capacity, while chronic heat and drought stress is greatest in Asia Pacific, where 89% of capacity is exposed.

Global data center insurance market will more than double by 2030
Insurance is evolving alongside the sector. As data centers assume a more critical role in infrastructure, comprehensive insurance cover has become a prerequisite for financing many large-scale AI infrastructure projects. Construction costs for a single AI campus can exceed US$20bn, with insured values rising substantially once high-performance computing equipment is installed. The global data center insurance market is projected to grow from around US$11bn today to more than US$24bn by 2030, reflecting rapid capacity expansion, rising insured values and increasing operational complexity. Demand is expected to extend beyond traditional property cover towards integrated solutions spanning construction, engineering, property, business interruption, cyber and liability, while also creating new opportunities in areas such as energy resilience, operational continuity, and technology risk.

Risk and claims trends: fire drives severity; water damage frequency

Allianz Commercial analysis of insurance industry data center-related claims shows that fire is the leading driver of loss severity, accounting for well over 50% of around €700mn (US$800mn) worth of losses. Natural catastrophe activity ranks second, followed by willful acts, which include crime and cyber incidents, followed by power failure. Water damage is the most frequent cause of data center claims, followed by willful acts, fire, and equipment breakdown. Business interruption is the primary driver of claims severity by line of insurance, highlighting the significant financial impact of operational downtime.

The data center risk profile is changing as facilities become larger, more complex, and more increasingly interdependent. Hyperscale and colocation of campuses can bring together multiple tenants, construction works, servers, supporting utilities and on-site infrastructure in one physical or operational space. A single event can therefore trigger claims across property, construction, business interruption, liability, cyber, and financial lines. Real-life claims case studies show that in hyperscale facilities, damage to external cooling systems, hot works-related fire damage, and a delay in start-up caused by power disturbances have each resulted in losses in the US$50mn to US$100mn range.

“For insurers, the key question is not only the value of the building, but the concentration of value and dependency inside and around it. Power, cooling, batteries, fiber routes, testing and commissioning, and business continuity planning are all part of the same risk picture. Effective risk mitigation must begin early and continue throughout the data center lifecycle. Resilience must be designed in from the earliest planning stage,” explains Christian Kolbe, Global Head of Construction Claims at Allianz Commercial.

Clarity between policies essential to avoid ambiguity

Data center projects encompass different project phases with several stakeholders and interests involved, which can create complications. During the construction phase, stakeholders include the owner, developer, contractor, and subcontractors, whereas in the operational phase, the stakeholders include the owner-operator, and potentially multiple tenants or end users. For example, different policies could respond to a hot works-related fire resulting in damage to a data center nearing completion, and this would impact different stakeholders.

“Clarity is critical with an insurance claim,” says Charlotte Field, Regional Head of Short-tail Claims, Asia, at Allianz Commercial. “Clearly documented handovers are essential between your construction all-risk policy and operational policy. There must be no ambiguity about practical completion, in order to avoid disputes over which policy responds to a particular event and the extent of cover.”

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