Households continue to face the cumulative impact of three interest rate increases this year.

“Sales of new homes declined for a third consecutive month in July, falling by 3.7 per cent as higher interest rates and policy uncertainty continued to weigh on consumer confidence,” stated HIA Senior Economist, Tom Devitt.

The HIA New Home Sales report is a monthly survey of the largest volume home builders in the five largest states and is a leading indicator of future detached home construction.

“The recent decline in sales reflects households becoming more cautious in response to higher borrowing costs and increased uncertainty, rather than a reduction in Australia’s underlying need for new homes,” added Mr Devitt.

“Sales of new homes in the three months to July were 13.5 per cent lower than in the previous quarter but remained 17.1 per cent higher over the last 12 months compared to the previous year, supported by the momentum built earlier in the year.

“Households continue to face the cumulative impact of three interest rate increases this year. At the same time, uncertainty surrounding recent housing policy changes has encouraged many prospective purchasers to delay, or cancel, major financial decisions.

“In the three months to July, house prices nationally declined by 2.0 per cent, the largest quarterly fall since 2022. Because the new and established home markets are linked, a decline in established prices will lead a decline in new home sales and a slowing in home building.

“The adverse shock to established home prices, due to the Federal Budget, is likely to be one factor slowing sales of new homes.

“Despite this, the structural drivers of housing demand remain firmly in place. Unemployment remains very low, migration remains elevated, household formation continues, and Australia’s shortage of homes will continue to support underlying demand.

“The goal of building 1.2 million homes will become increasingly unachievable if governments continue to restrict who can build, invest in, or finance new homes.

“Policies that add uncertainty, reduce investor participation, or constrain finance will only make it harder to deliver the homes Australians need,” concluded Mr Devitt.

By state, New South Wales was the only state to record a monthly increase, rising by 2.1 per cent. The largest decline was seen in Queensland (-10.9 per cent), followed by South Australia (-7.6 per cent), Victoria (-2.0 per cent), and Western Australia remaining relatively unchanged (-0.4 per cent).

In the year to July 2026, new home sales in Victoria were 27.6 per cent higher compared to the previous year, followed by South Australia (+26.3 per cent), New South Wales (+16.6 per cent), Queensland (+10.0 per cent) and Western Australia (+3.3 per cent).

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