Thought-leaders across ASEAN are concerned about the long-term impacts of the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s (PCA) ruling on the dispute between China and the Philippines over the South China Sea, according to new research released by Asialink yesterday.
Responses are divided, but there is a stress on the positive aspects of the China relationship as well as frustration over the territorial disputes – and a wariness regarding counter-responses from the US, Australia and Japan.
In the lead-up to the announcement of the decision, Asialink has brought together experts from across Southeast Asia, seeking their views regarding the likely implications of the decision. These experts include highly respected policymakers, former senior ASEAN officials and academics from across the region, including Directors from the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) in the Nanyang Technological University, the Institute of Strategic and International Studies (ISIS) Malaysia, the Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam, the Institute of Security and International Studies (ISIS) Thailand, and the Institute for Strategic and Development Studies (ISDS) in the Philippines.
There is widespread interest in this court decision and impending reactions of the various nations involved – including China, the Philippines, Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam. This ruling marks the first time an international tribunal has weighed in on the issue, and the outcomes could set precedents for the management of ongoing political tension.
These ASEAN perspectives may be challenging for Australians and other outsiders who tend to prefer legal and political clarity. ASEAN countries, however, are used to dealing with such complexity – and are, after all, on the front line in the South China Sea contests. Australia’s response needs to be informed by such ASEAN perspectives.
In an analysis of the dispute, the ASEAN experts have developed the following themes:
- While no one is pleased with China’s expansive claims, this does not amount to a vindication of the Philippines. There is considerable discontent at the Filipino handling of this issue and resistance to an “anti-China” position.
- Anxiety about the possibility that the decision will exacerbate division within ASEAN – and a continuing belief that ASEAN is essential to the stability of the region.
- While China’s activity is debated, its role in the region is complex and in many ways positive. The ASEAN-China relationship should not be ‘held hostage to what happens in the South China Sea’.
- While the United States, Australia and Japan have contributed to the stability of the region, some ASEAN specialists fear that they may respond to the court decision in ways that could aggravate the dispute and further divide ASEAN.
- There is a strong preference for ASEAN to focus on ‘managing’ the disputes, acknowledging that ‘resolution’ is highly ambitious. The hope among several experts is that the PCA ruling will inject new urgency into a finalised Code of Conduct for the South China Sea.
- There is a continuing faith in ASEAN diplomacy – in pursuing patient negotiations with China, seeking a workable accommodation.