Joseph Davis
Vanguard’s Global Chief Economist, Joseph Davis Ph.D., spoke to Australian financial advisers this week, explaining the forces driving change in the global economy and highlighting the future trends that will shape markets and the investor experience.
Speaking to hundreds of financial advisers attending Vanguard’s national Adviser Roadshow events across Australia, Mr Davis presented Vanguard’s views on a range of global trends that hold significant implications for the growth of financial markets and investment returns in the coming years.
Commenting on growing discourse about globalisation and free trade, Mr Davis said Vanguard analysis showed that increasing trade barriers would not reverse recent employment trends in manufacturing and other sectors where traditional jobs were changing or disappearing in many countries.
“Free-trade has never been in the crosshairs from an economic perspective more, certainly since I’ve been in the profession,” Mr Davis said.
“There is a growing populist belief that trade is a zero-sum game, suggesting that if I trade with you, you’re going to win at the expense of me, or I’m going to win at the expense of you. One side wins, and by definition the other side loses.
“This is a misdiagnosis of the problem. No matter how high you raise tariff rates, they will not change trade deficits.”
Mr Davis said that it was the pace of technological change across industries and workplaces, rather than growing free-trade, that was the biggest disruptor to the nature of employment globally.