Petrol prices to ease further, but watch the price cycle    

Weekly oil market update

• According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP), the national average unleaded petrol price fell by 11.2 cents to 192.9 cents a litre (c/l) last week after falling 8 cents a litre the previous week. The wholesale price fell by 9.2 cents a litre after falling by 14.3 cents the previous week.
• In Aussie dollar terms, the benchmark Singapore gasoline price fell by US$1.46 or 1.3 per cent. In Aussie dollar terms, the Singapore gasoline price fell by $6.23 or 3.9 per cent to a 22-week low of $155.29 a barrel or 97.66 cents a litre. The Singapore gasoline price has fallen 44 Aussie cents a litre in the past six weeks.

What does it all mean?

• The Singapore gasoline price has fallen 44 cents a litre from highs with the Australian wholesale (terminal gate) price down almost 40 cents. But the national retail or pump prices has fallen just over 19 cents a litre, so potentially considerable savings still lie ahead for consumers and transport companies.
• The key uncertainty is the petrol price cycle, which is due to end in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. Pump prices have fallen for 35 straight days in both Sydney and Brisbane. While that is a long period compared with previous cycles, pump prices are still near $1.80 a litre when the wholesale price is $1.61. Based on ‘normal’ gross retail margins CommSec would expect the national average price to ease to near $1.75 a litre in the next fortnight.
• Filling up the car with petrol is the single biggest purchase for most families. So changes in the petrol price can impact spending and the fortunes of consumer-dependent companies.
• Movements in the petrol price also affect inflation – directly and indirectly – the latter being the impact on transport costs, especially food.
• The good news for motorists is that crude oil prices have been falling on concerns that global rate hikes will lead to slower economic activity.
• Central banks have no control over oil supply, but they can affect demand for goods (spending) and overall economic activity by lifting interest rates. The hope had been that OPEC+ producers could also pump more crude but the producers are facing similar issues as other businesses – fewer available workers due to Covid. And those effects are felt across the supply chain.
• The war in Ukraine has also served to lift oil prices. But in good news for motorists, Reuters reported on Friday that “The European Union said it would allow Russian state-owned companies to ship oil to third countries under an adjustment of sanctions agreed by member states this week.” In other words, the potential for more supply on global markets.

What do you need to know?

Weekly oil market update

• Global oil prices eased on Friday. The Brent crude price fell by US66 cents or 0.6 per cent to US$103.20 a barrel. And the US Nymex crude price shed US$1.65 or 1.7 per cent to US$94.70 a barrel. Over the week Brent rose by 2 per cent, while the Nymex fell by 3 per cent as US inventories unexpectedly increased in the previous week. And investor worries intensified about crude demand ahead of an expected increase in US interest rates this week
• In the past week, the benchmark Singapore gasoline price fell by US$1.46 or 1.3 per cent. In Aussie dollar terms, the Singapore gasoline price fell by $6.23 or 3.9 per cent to a 22-week low of $155.29 a barrel or 97.66 cents a litre. The Singapore gasoline price has fallen 44 Aussie cents a litre in the past six weeks.
• According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP), the national average unleaded petrol price fell by 11.2 cents to 192.9 cents a litre (c/l) last week.
• Metropolitan pump prices fell by 13.1 cents to 189.9c/l and regional prices fell by 7.3 cents to 199.0c/l in the past week.
• The national average wholesale (Terminal Gate Price or TGP) petrol price fell by 14.3 cents last week to 165.1c/l. Today, the TGP is even lower, standing at 161.4c/l.
• The smoothed (2-month average) gross retail margin rose last week from 12.36 cents a litre to an 11-week high of 14.55 cents a litre (12-month average: 13.6 cents per litre).
• MotorMouth records the following average retail prices for unleaded fuel today: Sydney 179.9c/l; Melbourne 193.8c/l; Brisbane 179.0c/l; Adelaide 180.3c/l; Perth 166.0c/l; Hobart 199.1c/l; Darwin 205.9c/l and Canberra 213.1c/l.
• CommSec estimates that it is costing the average family $270.06 a month to fill up the car with petrol – below the recent record high of $297.50 a month in March. Despite recent falls in pump prices, it still costs an extra $48 a month to fill up the car compared with the start of the year – almost seven months ago.