Petrol prices near cycle lows; Inflation watch

Weekly oil market update; Inflation update

• According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP), the national average unleaded petrol price fell by 8.1 cents last week to a 15-week low of 173.6 cents a litre (c/l). But the wholesale price rose by 1.9 cents a litre last week.
• News Corp newspapers are reporting that vegetable prices are easing with broccoli, citrus and zucchini costing less as supply recovers from recent floods. “Some products remain expensive, including lettuce and tomatoes.”
• ABARES provides a weekly report that includes data on a range of commodity prices including fruit & vegetables, meat, grains, cotton and sugar.

What does it all mean?

• ·        The price of crude oil, and, in turn, domestic prices of gasoline or petrol, is a key factor behind higher inflation rates across the globe. Only when oil prices settle will central banks have more confidence about a peak in inflation. We are not there yet, but oil demand and supply continue to show signs of becoming more balanced.
• Pump prices have fallen for 49 straight days in Sydney, down from 218.7 cents per litre to 163.1 c/l. That fall of almost 56 cents represents savings of around $30-35 to fill up a vehicle from near empty. In Brisbane, prices have also fallen for 49 days, down 59 cents a litre. The $64 question is when will the petrol cycle end given that pump prices are only modestly above the wholesale price?
• In the current environment, investors are keenly watching a range of commodity prices and shipping rates to get a sense of whether inflation rates are peaking. Clearly, a peaking of inflation would have implications for future interest rate movements and investment markets.
• Locally, latest data compiled by ABARES shows some encouraging easing of a range of food prices including beef, lamb, kiwifruit, blueberries and beans. Household spending on food has lifted around $15 a week over the past six months.
• On Wednesday, data on both US consumer prices and consumer and producer prices in China are released with figures on US producer and trade prices (exports and imports) to be issued on Thursday.

What do you need to know?

Weekly oil market update

• Global oil prices rose around 0.5 per cent on Friday on position squaring, but they finished sharply lower over the week. The strong US jobs data supported oil prices on Friday, but for the remainder of the week investors fretted about the possibility of global recession. The Brent crude price rose by US80 cents or 0.8 per cent to US$94.92 a barrel. And the US Nymex crude price rose by US47 cents or 0.5 per cent to US$89.01 a barrel. Over the week Brent crude fell by 13.7 per cent with Nymex down 9.7 per cent.
• In the past week, the benchmark Singapore gasoline price fell by US$16.25 or 13.5 per cent. In Aussie dollar terms, the Singapore gasoline price fell by $22.36 or 13.1 per cent to a 24-week low of $149.04 a barrel or 93.7 cents a litre.
• The Singapore gasoline price has fallen around 50 Aussie cents a litre from recent highs. At the same time the daily Australia retail price has fallen around 49 cents and the wholesale price is down 41 cents a litre from highs.
• According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP), the national average unleaded petrol price fell by 8.1 cents to a 15-week low of 173.6 cents a litre (c/l) last week.
• Metropolitan pump prices fell by 8.4 cents to 169.0c/l and regional prices fell by 7.4 cents to 182.9c/l in the past week.
• The national average wholesale (Terminal Gate Price or TGP) petrol price rose by 1.9 cents last week to 160.9c/l. Today, the TGP remains near 159.6c/l.
• The smoothed (2-month average) gross retail margin rose last week from 16.44 cents a litre to a 17-month high of 16.90 cents a litre (12-month average: 13.67 cents per litre).
• MotorMouth records the following average retail prices for unleaded fuel today: Sydney 162.7c/l; Melbourne 165.8c/l; Brisbane 163.1c/l; Adelaide 173.7c/l; Perth 160.3c/l; Hobart 189.0c/l; Darwin 195.8c/l and Canberra 196.1c/l.
• CommSec estimates that it is costing the average family $243.04 a month to fill up the car with petrol – well below the recent record high of $297.50 a month in March. But despite recent falls in pump prices, it still costs around $21 a month more to fill up the car compared with the start of the year – over seven months ago.