Leon Goldfeld
J.P. Morgan Asset Management has released its 2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMAs), providing a comprehensive 10-15-year outlook for returns and risks across asset classes as the forces that drove volatility in recent years abate.
George Gatch, CEO of J.P. Morgan Asset Management comments: “J.P. Morgan is differentiated by the longevity and long-term perspective that we bring to our active management. With 30 years of producing Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, we consistently offer essential guidance to clients ranging from institutional investors to high-net-worth individuals. As our clients face a rapidly evolving investment landscape, the LTCMAs share the insights of over 100 experts, equipping them to build resilient portfolios in an era of moderate growth, rising economic nationalism, and rapid AI-driven innovation.”
In this 30th edition of the LTCMAs, the forecast annual return for a AUD 60/40 stock-bond portfolio over the next 10–15 years remains attractive at 5.9%. Even after a year of strong equity market gains, asset return projections remain robust. Although labor constraints weigh on the long-term growth outlook, we believe AI adoption will provide a near-term boost to profits and a longer-term boost to productivity. The report spotlights the opportunities to boost diversification through global equities and alternatives, particularly real assets. For investors embracing a 60/40+ portfolio, with 30% in diversified alternatives, the projected return jumps to 6.5% and the Sharpe ratio gets a 33% lift over the simple 60/40 approach.
“Our 30th anniversary Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions reflect on three decades of market evolution and look ahead to a future shaped by technology, shifting policy, and new asset classes,” said Leon Goldfeld, Portfolio Manager, Multi-Asset Solutions, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. “The economic landscape is shifting palpably. But, in our view, much of what worries investors today will ultimately pale beside the silver linings we see breaking through over the long run.”
“The global economy is adapting to a new set of realities, with fiscal activism, technological adoption, and demographic shifts driving both challenges and opportunities,” said Kerry Craig, Global Market Strategist, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. “While growth in developed markets is expected to moderate, robust investment and productivity gains—particularly from AI—support a constructive long-term outlook.”
“For investors today, building resilience means going beyond the traditional. Investors need to think outside the box, embracing alternatives and real assets to manage risk and unlock new sources of return,” said Andrew Creber, Australia and New Zealand CEO, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. “Most importantly, anchoring your investments to a goals-based plan ensures your portfolio stays aligned and adaptable, so you can remain confident no matter how uncertain the environment.”
Key findings include:
- Resilience in markets despite slower growth: Despite a dip in growth projections due to changing labor market dynamics, asset return projections remain strong.
- Economic Nationalism is a challenge, not a showstopper: Trade frictions are making headlines, but also forcing some countries to boost domestic investment – a clear silver lining to the impact of tariffs.
- Technology continues to drive this bull market: Capital investment and technology spend continue to provide momentum for the broader market. Governments are stepping up, unleashing record stimulus and incentives.
- The AI boom is at a critical juncture: Adoption is surging, and investment is massive. Investors should pivot their attention to who will be the eventual winners and losers of new technologies, making active management key.
- Equity strength, but currency matters: After two years of 20% gains followed by another 14% so far this year, US equity performance has been exceptionally strong for USD-based investors. For AUD based investors the stronger currency has offset a very respectable rate of return from US equities.
- Diversification isn’t optional, it’s essential: shifting policies and higher investment mean more volatile inflation. This demands smarter portfolios that use alternatives and real assets for resilience and returns. Manager selection is key to take advantage of this current environment of disruptive change.
The report also outlines the following asset class return assumptions:
Fixed Income
- U.S. intermediate Treasuries are expected to return 4.4%, while long Treasuries are expected to return 5.2%.
- U.S. investment grade credit is forecast to return 5.6%, with spreads tightening due to a shortening of the maturity of debt issuance.
- U.S. high yield credit is expected to return 6.5%, with a fair value spread of 475bps, driven by higher credit quality.
Equities
- U.S. large cap equities are expected to return 6.2%, dropping slightly from last year as the move from tech adoption to tech deployment broadens to other sectors and concerns over index concentration are expected to dissipate. The U.S. looks likely to remain the global leader in technology origination.
- Global equities are projected to return 6.5% , with non-U.S. markets offering more attractive cyclical starting points and benefiting from currency appreciation.
- Emerging markets equities are expected to return 7.3% , increasing modestly compared to last year.
Alternatives
- Private Equity: The return assumption for private equity is 9.7%, reflecting a slight increase due to a more favorable exit environment and higher growth opportunities in technology and AI.
- Real Estate: U.S. core real estate is expected to return 8.3%, driven by attractive entry points and higher yields. European core real estate is forecast to return 6.4%.
- Infrastructure: Global core infrastructure is projected to return 6.0%, reflecting the essential nature of the services provided by this asset class through a shifting trade policy environment.
- Commodities: The return assumption for broad basket commodities sees a slight increase to 4.1%, with the energy transition and geopolitical risks influencing the outlook. Gold is expected to return 5.0%, an increase from last year at 3.8%.
- Timberland: Global timberland is expected to return 5.8%.
Three Decades of LTCMAs: From Spreadsheet to Global Standard
Celebrating its 30th anniversary, the LTCMAs reflect on three decades of extraordinary market evolution, including the internet revolution, the birth of the euro, the global financial crisis, quantitative easing, the pandemic, and the dawn of artificial intelligence.
What began as a modest spreadsheet for asset allocation has transformed into a globally relied upon program, built on a rigorous research process that combines quantitative and qualitative insights from over 100 industry-leading portfolio managers, research analysts, and strategists worldwide.
Today, these time-tested projections cover more than 200 assets across 20 currencies, setting the standard for strategic asset allocation and long-term investment planning in an ever-evolving financial landscape.
Read the 2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMAs).
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Note: All figures quoted are based on AUD returns unless otherwise stated. Hedged returns have been quoted for fixed income.