Eric Marais
Orbis Investments is challenging investors to test their assumptions and re-examine market ‘certainties’ in its new report, Six Courageous Questions for 2026.
In the report, the contrarian global equity manager with A$72billion in assets under management explores some of the powerful narratives shaping markets – from US concentration and the economics of AI to the vulnerability of the US dollar. These questions help investors test where conviction still holds – and where it needs rethinking.
Eric Marais, Head of Investment Specialists, Orbis Investments, said, “Change has accelerated, and it’s reshaping the investment landscape. In this environment, success will require the courage to test assumptions, act when opportunities arise, and the discipline to be selective.”
The key takeaways from the report are that investors should aim for genuine diversification, be valuation-disciplined, and rebalance their portfolios for resilience.
“For Orbis, that means looking at neglected areas of the market, such as opportunities in the healthcare sector, US companies left behind in the AI boom, and emerging markets,” said Marais.
“Success isn’t about having all the answers – it’s about asking the important questions. We would encourage investors to use these questions to test their assumptions and act with discipline and conviction in 2026.”
The six key questions are:
What if exceptionalism is now behind the US’s biggest stocks?
Investors are paying 34 times earnings for mega-cap technology companies, which represent the most crowded part of the market. Orbis views this combination of extreme concentration risk and valuation risk as dangerous, leaving little room for error if fundamentals fail to keep pace with expectations.
History suggests that when market leadership becomes this narrow, opportunity for investors often shifts elsewhere. Investors need to question whether the next chapter of US exceptionalism may be written not by the country’s biggest companies but by the rest of the market they have overshadowed.
Is the world’s safest currency the riskiest?
The US dollar’s haven status is under stress; its yield advantage may fade if the US Federal Reserve cuts rates too soon or fiscal pressures lead to financial repression. Rising debt, persistent deficits and a greater tolerance for inflation also point to a weaker long-term backdrop for the currency.
Investors should consider whether they may benefit from building a balanced portfolio of alternative currencies with compelling characteristics, such as the Australian dollar, Japanese yen, and Norwegian krone.
Are you swimming in the right water?
With US policy turning inward, other export-led economies must adapt. This is likely to lead to domestic investment and fiscal expansion in countries throughout Asia and Northern Europe. These developments have significant implications for investors with portfolios heavily concentrated in US assets and will reshape the capital cycle. This potentially marks a new era for markets outside the US where