Andrew Buchan
As Australia approaches the 2026 Federal Budget, investors are preparing for a policy landscape defined by competing priorities including fiscal repair, cost-of-living relief and structural reform, according to Andrew Buchan, partner at HLB Mann Judd Brisbane.
While the 2026 Federal Budget may not deliver sweeping reform, it is expected to set the tone for the next phase of economic policy.
“Policy risk is becoming a more prominent factor in investment decision-making. In the current environment, even incremental changes can influence how and where capital is allocated,” said Buchan.
For investors, the key theme emerging from this year’s Budget is policy uncertainty rather than policy shock.
“While sweeping changes may appear unlikely, even incremental policy adjustments could have meaningful implications for investment strategy, particularly across property, superannuation and tax settings,” said Buchan.
“With deficits persisting and government debt projected to remain elevated, this year’s Budget is expected to walk a fine line between economic discipline and political reality.
“This is unlikely to be a reform-heavy Budget. Cost-of-living support, particularly in areas such as energy, healthcare and household tax relief, is likely set to remain a central focus, potentially at the expense of more ambitious structural reform.
“Instead, we expect targeted measures that address immediate pressures while deferring more difficult long-term decisions.”
Tax reform has re-emerged in the policy conversation, though expectations should be tempered, says Buchan.
Potential changes under consideration include adjustments to capital gains tax concessions and negative gearing, alongside the continuation of legislated personal income tax cuts.
“Any significant overhaul remains politically challenging,” says Buchan. “We’re seeing growing momentum for tax reform, but the reality is that meaningful change may be gradual. Investors should be prepared for tweaks rather than transformation.”
Housing policy is expected to be one of the most closely watched elements of the Budget, with potential implications for both affordability and investment.
Buchan believes that reform to investor tax settings could alter after-tax returns and influence behaviour, particularly if changes are not grandfathered.
“Growth assets, particularly housing, is where policy decisions could most directly shift investor sentiment. Even modest changes to tax settings may have an impact on transaction activity and supply.”
The direction of superannuation policy remains clear, with increased scrutiny on higher balance accounts and a continued shift toward targeting the system for retirement income rather than wealth accumulation.
While contribution caps are set to rise modestly, additional taxes on large balances reinforce a broader policy trend.
“The super system is evolving. We’re moving away from open-ended tax concessions toward a more targeted framework, particularly for high-balance investors.”
“Whilst we don’t know for certain, this Budget may be less about bold moves and more about direction. For investors, understanding that direction and positioning accordingly will be critical,” Buchan added.