US shares fell sharply over the last week as the Democrat wins in the midterm elections renewed fears about tighter regulation of AI adding to worries about an AI bubble and leading to a sharp rout in AI related tech shares leaving the US share market on track for 2.7% fall. This also dragged Japanese and other Asian share markets down sharply. Eurozone shares managed a small rise though. Australian shares also rose managing a gain of around 0.8% helped by its relatively low exposure to AI related shares and less hawkishness from the RBA after its latest rate hike. While energy shares fell on the back of lower oil prices this was offset on the ASX 200 by gains in tech, consumer and property shares.

While gold and iron ore rose over the last week, Bitcoin fell along with metal prices. The $A fell on the back of the risk off trade but the $US also fell slightly.

Oil prices plunged on hopes that the move to a Democrat Congress will help bring an end to the Iran War with Republicans seeing that as a cause of their midterm losses. The risk around this remains high though as Trump could still decide to ramp up the attacks again.

Bond yields fell further again over the last week on hopes that US political gridlock will stop the blowout in the US budget deficit and on safe haven demand. The longer term risks for bond yields remain on the upside though thanks to a combination of: the oil shock; expectations for more central bank rate hikes; stronger US economic data adding to concerns that maybe the neutral short term rate has moved up; worries about big budget deficits in the US, UK, France, Brazil and elsewhere; corporate borrowing to fund data centre investment; and a rising trend in Japanese bond yields leading to a reversal of the so-called carry trade.

The US midterms saw a resounding rebuke of Trump’s policies, with a blue wave seeing Democrats retake control of both the House and the Senate and various governorships in red states. Naturally though Trump tried to deflect – arguing if “I was on [the ballot] we would have won in a landslide” ironically ignoring the fact that he had asked people to assume he was on the ballot. Maybe they did! But, as always “it’s the economy stupid”. Trump won in 2024 largely because of “cost of living” pressures turned people against the Democrats, but his crazy tariff and War policies made them even worse causing those who swung to him then to swinging back to the Democrats. Of course, this wasn’t helped by things like the ICE raids (turning Hispanics and other immigrant groups against him), the Epstein files and perceptions of graft and corruption. Of course, there is a danger in reading too much into it in terms of what it means for the 2028 elections as given Trump’s low approval rating the seat gains by the Democrats are consistent with the experience in past midterm elections. See the next chart from Deutsche Bank. Both Clinton and Obama lost far more House seats in their first term midterm elections and then went on to win a second term two years later.

However, the blue wave does have significant implications particularly given Trump’s sensitive character and the unusual nature of the Trump Administration. In particular:

• Congress will now be a check on Trump’s actions at least domestically and in particular there are now likely to be significant inquiries into his actions including a possible attempt at impeachment. Democrat control off the Senate also means Fed independence will be protected. At a high level this once again highlights that US governance and democracy remains strong – a slide into strong man dictatorship is not going to happen as voters won’t permit it.
• More regulation around tech and AI – particularly putting some brake on data centres in states where Democrats won the governorship (Texas, Ohio, Iowa & Georgia) and in states where referenda to restrict data centres were won. Trump can veto excessive regulation coming out of Congress but the states may matter more.
• A return to brinkmanship over raising the debt ceiling (necessary by around June quarter next year and funding the US Government (which currently expires on 11^th December) – in some ways this may be a good thing if it leads to a smaller budget deficit. Trump may attempt to get resolution and to raise defence spending in the lame duck session of the current Congress but that’s unlikely to happen. Similarly hopes for lower budget deficits may prove in vain as Democrats may try to increase some social benefits that Trump may find hard to veto, but he is likely to veto any attempted tax hikes. So, the fall in bond yields since the midterms may not be justified.
• Trump moving into being a lame (or angrier) duck President could see him become more aggressive in foreign policy by in particular recommencing the war on Iran and returning to the tariff war. So far markets seem relaxed about this, with oil prices down sharply on hopes Congress will bring an end to the Iran War, VP Vance blaming the War for the election loss, the clear voter pushback against the War including from Republicans and Trump saying he has no immediate plans to ramp up fighting. And both tariffs and the War are self-evidently not popular so Republicans may cut him adrift if he pushes heavily down this path again. That said he could still have a go just to prove who’s in charge – so another spike in tariffs and/or oil prices remains a high risk.
• Fears that tax hikes and bigger government are on the way particularly if a Democrat wins the 2028 presidential election. However, the risks on this front are overstated. Sure, the numbers of DSA (Democrat Socialists) in Congress will increase but most of the wins owed to moderate centre left Democrats, suggesting the US has not lurched to Bernie Sanders’s style democratic socialism. The failure of the Proposition 40 5% billionaire wealth tax proposal in California also supports this view although not strongly as one reason for opposing it was that it wasn’t national (so risked a loss of billionaires out of California) so it could still get up nationally.

Normally US shares rally once the midterms are out of the way due to the removal of a source of uncertainty. However, there may be more uncertainty this time around given the risk for the AI trade from the Democrat wins and its high weight in the US share market along with Trump’s unpredictability and the risk he could go rogue on, eg, Iran for a while now that the election is out of the way.

However, the risk of a further correction in shares remains high and maybe we are now starting to see this unfold with US shares now down 6% from their October high. The threats from high and sticky inflation, ongoing central bank rate hikes, excessive public debt driving rising bond yields, the risk of another spike in oil prices, AI bubble and data centre worries, and slowing growth and rising rates in Australia remain. A rotation from tech to non-tech was providing some support for US shares but even non-tech shares came under pressure in the last week. While the VIX “fear index” is up its too early to say that the correction in shares is over particularly given the long list of worries and this leaves US, global and Australian shares vulnerable. However, at this stage strong US earnings growth (even outside tech) and no indications of a US recession suggest that the pull back is more likely a correction rather than a new bear market.  

In Australia the RBA provided no real surprises with a fifth rate hike taking the cash rate to an 18 year high of 4.85%. The reasons were simple – inflation is too high and broad based, capacity pressures remain and higher fuel prices look to be bleeding through into other prices and inflation expectations look to be rising. Government spending cuts could have provided a fairer alternative but in their absence the RBA had to hike to cool demand and to reinforce its commitment to the inflation target. The bad news is that inflation is likely to have increased further in October and is now expected to remain higher for longer and so despite a rising risk of recession and much higher unemployment the risk of another rate hike remains high. The good news though is that there are increasing signs that rate hikes are working to slow spending – with very low levels of confidence, weakening underlying household spending and warnings from retailers of falling retail sales, falling home prices and rising unemployment – which will slow inflation. And consistent with this the RBA softened its tightening bias by dropping a reference to raising rates again if needed, three board members voted for a pause and Governor Bullock implied that after five hikes it’s a good point to “take stock” suggesting the RBA will pause in December.

Our view is that while the risk of another rate hike is high, there is now increasing evidence that rate hikes are working to slow demand which will slow inflation and so we expect the RBA to leave rates on hold for an extended period, ahead of eventually being able to start cutting rates but not until late next year.

Understandably, following the latest rate hikes there is now much concern about mortgage stress and how big it is. Here’s a survey-based measure from Roy Morgan suggesting just over 30% of mortgages are at risk of stress with over 20% extremely at risk. It exaggerates the reality as the definitions are rather vague and it’s based on the Standard Variable Rate which is way above actual mortgage rates. And I have been hearing about high levels of mortgage stress on and off for the last 20 years now and yet the proportion of loans behind in their payments has stayed relatively low. But on this chart mortgage stress is already above where it was at the end of the last rate hiking cycle in 2023, the trend is clearly up and with rates pushing levels last seen 18 years ago but with higher debt to income ratios today a further significant rise in mortgage stress is likely.

The threat from rising mortgage stress for the economy has been highlighted in recent weeks by various retailers warning that consumer spending is weakening. The move into voluntary administration by David Jones partly reflects this but more broadly reflects years of decline with DJ’s failure to adapt to changing shopping habits around online spending and the rise of specialist brands with lower costs.

To be sure the RBA has been more aggressive in raising rates this cycle than other central banks…

…but this reflects a combination of worse inflation compared to other major countries, lower unemployment versus some countries and poorer productivity growth, particularly compared to the US.

The Bank of England joined the hiking cycle in the last week raising its policy rate by 0.25% to 4% and signalled another hike unless oil prices fall. As can be seen in the next chart the global cycle has clearly moved back to rate hikes but its nowhere near as aggressive as in 2022 as inflation is not as high and rates are not starting from zero.

Major global economic events and implications

US economic data was a mostly strong. The ISM conditions indicators averaged around strong levels with strong orders and solid employment readings. This is similar to the US PMIs. But price pressures remain elevated.

US labour market indicators were solid or showed signs of improvement with job openings, quits and hiring up in September, the ADP private jobs survey suggesting strong jobs growth for October and jobless claims remaining low. What’s more US productivity growth remained strong, up 2.1%yoy leaving unit labour costs up 2.4%yoy and not a significant source of inflationary pressure.

The US September quarter earnings reporting season is now nearly 90% done with 84% beating expectations and earnings growth now running around 31%yoy, up from 26%yoy at the start of the reporting season. Earnings growth is concentrated in tech (+48%yoy) and energy (+151%yoy) but the rest of the market is still seeing earnings up a solid 12%yoy. However, while strong the concern has been around tech earnings with some misses (eg, Amazon, Alphabet) and ongoing worries about excessive capex with has resulted in a decline in tech sector price to earnings multiples. In fact, while most of the market has seen earnings surprise on the upside tech earnings in aggregate are coming in a bit weaker than expected.

Eurozone inflation rose in October to 4% with core inflation unchanged at 2.5%. This likely leaves the ECB on track to hike again next month, but it doesn’t have to be aggressive in hiking.

Chinese business conditions PMI’s fell slightly in October, but remain in the same range they have been in for the last few years, so there is little to get excited about here.

Unemployment rose in New Zealand to 5.7%, which could potentially further delay its next rate hike.

Australian economic events and implications

Australian household spending rose a stronger than expected 0.6%mom in September, but was mainly driven by higher fuel prices (with fuel volumes down), transport and spending on sporting and entertainment events and more visits to the GP due to flu all of which look like temporary boosts.

Building approvals rose 5% in September driven by volatile unit approvals. They are running around 212,000 on an annualised basis but this is still way below the Housing Accord target for 240,000 homes a year (with completions a lot lower still) and in any case approvals look to be rolling over with the rise in interest rates likely to drive a fall.

Australian home prices are continuing to fall with more to go. Australian home prices fell another 1.2% in October and are now down nearly 7%. The slump is expected to continue out to the September quarter next year as rate hikes, tax hikes on investors and poor confidence continue to weigh on demand and as distressed sales start to rise in response to rate hikes and the deteriorating jobs market. This is already the fastest slump in the last 46 years and will soon become the deepest with a 15% top to bottom fall likely. A deeper fall is possible but would require a recession and much higher unemployment, which is not our base case. The slump in home prices will knock around 1.5% off consumer spending as it leaves homeowners feeling poorer.

Australia’s trade balance improved in September to $2.8Bn with strong growth in iron ore and gas exports and a fall in imports although data centre related imports remained high. Trade looks like being a neutral contributor to September quarter GDP growth.

The Melbourne Institute’s Inflation Gauge remained too high in October. It rose 0.5%mom or 4.9%yoy pointing to a further rise in headline CPI inflation thanks to another rise in fuel prices and while the trimmed mean inflation rate was flat in the month its still up 3.9%yoy.

What to watch over the next week?

In the US, the focus will be on October CPI inflation data (Tuesday) which is expected to show a 0.3%mom rise in the headline CPI and core inflation at 0.2%mom. The annual rate won’t be published because no CPI data was collected in October last year. Existing home sales for October (Thursday) are expected to fall.

Chinese inflation data for October (Monday) is expected to show a fall back to 0.8%yoy but with core inflation unchanged at 1%yoy. Trade data (Tuesday) is expected to show continued strength in export and import growth.

In Australia, the Westpac/MI consumer confidence and NAB business conditions surveys (Tuesday) are expected to have weakened further partly reflecting ongoing rate hikes. Housing finance data for the September quarter (Wednesday) is likely to show a further fall of around 5% reflecting the property market slump.

Outlook for investment markets

Global and Australian share markets are at risk of a correction given the oil shock, the risk of further increases in bond yields and stretched valuations, sticky inflation and central bank rate hikes, uncertainty associated with what the blue wave from the midterm elections will bring and worries about AI. However, returns should still be okay for a while yet thanks to continuing economic growth with recession likely to be avoided, albeit it’s a rising risk in Australia, and strong global profit growth and likely rate cuts next year.

Bonds are likely to see subdued returns.

Unlisted commercial property returns are likely to be solid helped by strong demand for industrial property associated with data centres. Higher bond yields are a constraint.

Australian home prices are expected to fall around 15% top to bottom, of which they have already done 6.7%, out to the September quarter next year as a result of RBA rate hikes, reduced investor demand flowing from the winding back of negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount and poor confidence. Rising distressed sales risk also becoming a drag.

Cash and bank deposits are expected to provide returns around 4-5%.

The $A is likely to rise reflecting the wider interest rate differential to the US, although Fed hikes may limit this. Fair value for the $A is around $US0.72.

By Shane Oliver

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Ronald Calvert

Australian investment manager Munro Partners has completed its acquisition of GSFM Funds Management Pty Ltd (GSFM) from Munro’s Canadian investment partner CI Global Asset Management (CI GAM), marking a new growth phase in their $9 billion partnership.

The transaction follows approval from Australia’s Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB), with Munro acquiring funds management business GSFM, which is CI GAM’s Australian fund management business.

Under the agreement, CI GAM, one of Canada’s largest investment management companies, receives an increased minority ownership stake in Munro, further strengthening their long-term partnership.

GSFM’s Australian distribution team and funds management operation have been integrated into Munro, which will continue to distribute GSFM funds.

There are no changes to Munro’s investment management team, investment approach or investment process.

Ronald Calvert, Chief Executive Officer of Munro Partners, said the transaction was a significant milestone that strengthens Munro’s position in the Australian market, allowing us to deepen our support and relationships with advisers and investors.

“The acquisition opens the next chapter of our partnership with CI Global Asset Management, built over many years. The combination of Munro’s investment expertise and GSFM’s established distribution relationships creates an exciting opportunity to strengthen our position in the market.”

Key information:

• Munro will continue to distribute the GSFM funds across their investment partners, including CI GAM.
• CI GAM increases its minority stake in Munro, deepening their strategic alignment and commitment to long-term growth in both Australia and Canada.
• CI GAM will continue to distribute funds sub-advised by Munro in the Canadian market.

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Damian Ogden

Chartered Accountants Australia and New Zealand (CA ANZ) has reiterated concerns to a Senate committee that key policy and practical issues remain unresolved in the Government’s proposed trust tax reforms, leaving taxpayers, advisers and software providers with limited time to prepare for implementation.

Appearing before the Senate Economics Legislation Committee as part of its inquiry into the Treasury Laws Amendment (Tax Reform No. 3) Bill 2026 and Income Tax Rates Amendment (Minimum Tax on Discretionary Trusts) Bill 2026, CA ANZ said it supports the Government’s objective of addressing inappropriate income splitting through discretionary trusts. However, important design and implementation questions remain unresolved, and require greater certainty before the reforms commence.

These include uncertainty around not-for-profit exclusions from the 30 per cent tax on trusts and eligibility for excluded election trust status. Further legislation is also required to clarify how the minimum tax will interact with capital gains tax, residency rules and international tax arrangements.

CA ANZ Group Executive Advocacy, International and Government Affairs, Damian Ogden, said taxpayers still need greater certainty before the reforms commence.

“These reforms have significant implications for taxpayers who use trusts for legitimate commercial purposes, particularly family businesses that operate through discretionary trust and corporate beneficiary structures,” he said.

“Without certainty on how the rules will operate in practice, some businesses may feel compelled to restructure long-standing arrangements to avoid double taxation outcomes.”

“We appreciate the opportunity to appear before the Committee and welcome the ongoing consultation process. We look forward to continuing to work constructively with the Government to address the remaining issues and support successful implementation of the reforms.”

CA ANZ said the remaining uncertainty around key aspects of both the trust and CGT reforms reinforces the need for realistic implementation timeframes, allowing taxpayers time to review the final legislation and ATO guidance, obtain advice, consider their options, update systems and processes where necessary, and make informed decisions.

“The closer implementation gets without that clarity, the greater the risk of confusion, inadvertent errors and unnecessary compliance costs,” CA ANZ Tax, Superannuation and Financial Services Leader, Susan Franks, said.

“Good tax policy is not just about designing legislation. It’s also about making sure taxpayers have sufficient time, guidance and support to understand their obligations and comply with the law.”

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Stephen Miller

I think it is pretty clear that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board approaches the next meeting with a clean sheet of paper. That was implied by a split 6-3 vote to increase the policy rate to 4.85 per cent at its November meeting.

In her press conference the Governor indicated that the dissenters from the majority position were more inclined to put a little more weight on the notion that inflation may well respond sooner to prior increases in the policy rate. In other words the dissenters didn’t place the same emphasis on the upside risks to inflation and were more concerned on downside risks to growth and the labour market.

With now five policy interest rate increases in 2026 and given the lags with which monetary policy operates and given the relative paucity of data points between now and the next RBA meeting on 7-8 December, a further hike at that meeting seems a remote prospect.

The October labour force report is released on 19 November and it is difficult to conceive a number strong enough to make the RBA meeting in December contemplate a further policy rate increase.

The October monthly consumer price index (CPI) is released on 25 November. It is a credible argument that even in the (I think unlikely event) of an upside surprise relative to the newly issued, and upwardly revised, November RBA Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP) inflation forecast, that the November policy rate increase has anticipated that.

That doesn’t mean that the policy rate is at a peak but that the RBA has given itself some room to sift through more data before coming to a determination on whether or not to entertain a policy rate increase.

By the time that the first meeting for 2027 takes place on 8-9 February the RBA will have sufficient data to make that judgement.

Without any great conviction, I would conjecture that signs of a cooling labour market combined with no materialisation of further upside inflation risks relative to the November SoMP forecasts probably mean that a “hold” is likely at the February meeting which suggests we are at peak policy rate.

But I might be wrong…

Bank of England: an almost certain November rate increase

The Bank of England (BoE) meets tonight in an environment that might feel uncannily familiar to Australians: inflation is “sticky”; the labour market is cooling but a little more resilient than feared; fiscal policy is lax with no meaningful consolidation in sight; and the government is struggling politically (if in a slightly better position than a couple months prior).

Perhaps most importantly the most recent UK September consumer price index was troubling enough to ensure a policy rate increase.

The inflation data were a tad higher than expected with the Septem headline and core annual rates at 3.5 per cent and 2.8 per cent respectively (compared with expectations of 3.4 per cent and 2.7 per cent respectively). Services inflation remains “sticky” at 3.7 per cent. The target is 2 per cent for headline inflation.

That the September employment and unemployment reports released a couple of weeks ago indicated some resilience in the labour market eases the risk that some BoE Monetary Policy Committee members may harbour regarding the fallout from a rate hike on the labour market.

Despite the more positive signs for the labour market in September, it seems the economy is in a state of cyclical fragility, and the UK also has somewhat of a structural inflation proclivity. In some ways, the inattention to structural elements has been more egregious than that attaching to Australia and in that context it is surprising that inflation has at the margin been better behaved. That may be attributable to a greater cyclical fragility.

In any case, inflation remains well north of the 2 per cent target and the September report reinforces an almost universal view that the BoE will increase the policy rate by 25 basis points to 4 per cent at the November meeting.

Such a move won’t surprise the markets which have fully priced such an eventuality.

October Eurozone inflation points to a December ECB policy rate rise

In what is an increasingly familiar event in the developed country complex, the Eurozone October inflation report released overnight came in above the central bank’s target 2 per cent.

October preliminary CPI (HICP) was 4.0 per cent (up from 3.8 per cent in September) while the core reading was unchanged at 2.5 per cent.

Viewed against a policy (deposit facility) rate of 2.5 per cent monetary policy would hardly be described as restrictive.

That probably means a 25 bp policy rate increase when the European Central Bank concludes its meeting on 17 December.

Such a move would follow the 25bp increase overnight to 2 per cent from Sweden’s Riksbank. Norway’s Norges Bank is expected to stay put tonight at 4.5 per cent.

By Stepehn Miller, investment strategist

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Frank Lombardo

MUFG Retirement Solutions, a division of MUFG Pension & Market Services (MPMS), has expanded its strategic partnership with InvestStream, a provider of financial modelling and engagement technology, through an equity investment that will see MPMS acquire a minority interest in InvestStream. This reinforces both organisations’ long-term commitment to expanding access to digital advice and guidance for Australian superannuation members.

Yesterday’s announcement follows the launch of a strategic partnership between the two organisations in July 2026, aimed at helping superannuation funds expand members’ access to personalised digital advice, guidance and education, by simplifying the engagement experience.

InvestStream’s AI-powered conversational engagement, underpinned by its institutional grade financial modelling engine, will be combined with MUFG Retirement Solutions’ superannuation administration capabilities. Together, these technologies will support financial decision making and make retirement planning more accessible and easier for members to use.

InvestStream’s SuperAnne conversational engagement platform, powered by SUGAI its financial modelling engine, will work alongside MUFG Retirement Solutions’ administration platform and expertise, to support the delivery of digital advice, guidance and education services at scale. These services will help members better understand their financial position, engage more effectively with their superannuation and plan for retirement based on their individual circumstances.

Frank Lombardo, CEO of MUFG Retirement Solutions ANZ, believes expanding access to advice should be a national priority.

“Millions of Australians face important decisions about their financial future, yet access to advice and guidance remains out of reach for many. This partnership is an important step that will help democratise access and support Australians to make more informed financial decisions.

“By combining our administration platform and expertise with InvestStream’s technology, we can better support superannuation funds to scale their personalised, digitally enabled advice, all within a single ecosystem. Ultimately, it’s super fund members who truly benefit, as it becomes easier and more affordable to access financial advice that could have a meaningful impact on their retirement.”

Jason Hoang, Founder and CEO of InvestStream, said the partnership reflected a shared view of what people actually want from their super.

“People don’t wake up in the morning thinking, ‘I’m going to have a concessional contribution journey today.’ They’re thinking, ‘Have I got enough money to retire?’ We wanted to change the way advice is delivered by putting more of the tools and capabilities that support financial decision-making directly into members’ hands.

MPMS’s investment is a strong endorsement of what we’ve built: governed financial modelling delivered through a simple conversation. Together, we can bring that technology to more super fund members, helping them understand where they stand, and what choices they have.”

The initial rollout of functionality to clients is targeted for early 2027.

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Elie Saikaly

Frontier Advisors is pleased to share that Medibank Group (ASX) has engaged the services of Frontier as its external investment consultant. Medibank is a health company providing private health insurance and health services to millions of people across Australia.

As part of the engagement, Frontier will provide investment advice in relation to Medibank’s investment portfolio, including: asset allocation and external manager selection and monitoring.

The relationship will draw on Frontier’s more than three decades of experience and reflects the strength and capability of the firm’s Liability Driven Investing (LDI) team that already advises some of Australia’s largest APRA regulated entities.

Elie Saikaly, Director of Client Development and Co-Head of LDI & Government at Frontier, is delighted with the appointment and looking forward to building a strong partnership with the health company.

“We look forward to working closely with Medibank Group’s team and using our deep LDI sector expertise and investment capabilities to support Medibank’s purpose of Better Health for Better Lives,” said Saikaly.

The appointment further strengthens Frontier’s growing presence in the insurance sector and reflects heightened demand from APRA regulated entities for specialist, governance-focused investment advice.

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Phil Harkness, CEO and Managing Partner said: “Our people are our greatest asset, and these promotions are an opportunity to celebrate important milestones in their careers.

“We are committed to investing in our people and creating opportunities for them to grow within Mutual Trust. It is a pleasure to mark this next chapter with them.”

Eliza Newson has been promoted to Head of Family Succession & Trustee Services and joins the Leadership Team. Since joining Mutual Trust in 2021, she has grown Trustee Services and Family Succession as a dedicated department, helping families and individuals navigate long-term stewardship and succession decisions.

Tammy Hurst has been promoted to Partner, Family Office Advisory. Based in Adelaide, Tammy joined Mutual Trust in 2025 after leading a single-family office with interests in Australia, New Zealand and the UK. Her background spans accounting, tax and finance, as well as work with boards and trusts across a range of industries and sectors. Her work with families focuses on their individual goals, including navigating complex circumstances and managing conflict.

Sarah Nader has been promoted to Partner, following previous roles as Senior Manager and Director. Since joining Mutual Trust in 2012, Sarah has worked with families and individuals on tax, governance and wealth transition, supporting decisions that connect their immediate objectives with their long-term purpose.

Esther Burridge has been promoted to Partner, Markets and Client Growth. Esther joined Mutual Trust in 2018 after a decade of strategic transformation and business growth across Australia and the UK. Esther has worked across the firm on strategy and growth, to benefit the business and clients. In this role, Esther will continue to focus on Mutual Trust’s growth agenda and its engagement with markets and clients.

Rob Hemphill, Head of Client Growth said: “Families face increasing complexity as they steward wealth across generations. As Mutual Trust continues to grow, these promotions strengthen our ability to bring together specialist expertise across succession, governance, tax and family office advisory, helping clients navigate decisions with clarity and confidence.”

Mutual Trust also celebrates Baptiste Burgert who has been appointed as Deputy Chief Financial Officer. Baptiste joined Mutual Trust in 2017 after working in accounting across Australia and France. In this role, Baptiste will oversee the business’ financial planning, reporting and business decisions, helping support Mutual Trust’s long-term financial sustainability and growth.

Paul Collins has been promoted to Head of Legal, Risk, Compliance & Governance. Paul joined Mutual Trust in 2022 after a decade working as a corporate lawyer, including with ASIC. Paul works across the business, providing legal and governance advice. Paul will continue to serve as Company Secretary, managing Mutual Trust’s governance, compliance, and communication to the Board.

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Paul Newfield

Frontier Advisors argues the biggest risk in adopting a total portfolio approach (TPA) is complexity without accountability and not the choice of investment framework itself.

In a research paper published yesterday, Frontier examines how institutional investors can make competing objectives, hidden exposures and investment trade-offs explicit, while ensuring governance keeps pace with increasingly complex portfolios.

The paper, the first in a three-part series, examines TPA’s origins, its appeal to asset owners and the implications for Australian investors. It argues a hybrid model that retains a Board-approved strategic anchor while strengthening whole-of-portfolio decision-making may be the most appropriate outcome for many institutions.

Frontier Advisors Director of Specialist Services and author of the TPA research paper series, Paul Newfield, said the debate needed to move beyond investment terminology.

“The danger is not SAA versus TPA. It is complexity without accountability,” Newfield said.

“Asset-class allocations tell a Board where capital sits, but they do not always reveal the economic risks building up across the portfolio, how those risks interact or where liquidity will come from under stress.

“TPA is useful when it improves those conversations and the decisions that follow. It is not a new asset allocation formula or an automatic source of better returns.”

Interest is strong, but clarity is missing

Frontier notes that TPA is widely written about and discussed but not always well, or clearly understood. The paper refers to audience polling from Frontier’s 2026 client conference to illustrate the uncertainty around TPA. In one poll, 43% of respondents associated TPA with a pure competition-for-capital model, 27% saw risk as its key anchor and 30% were unsure what the term meant.

In a separate question about the biggest risk of moving to TPA, 25% selected a mismatch with existing governance, policy or delegations, while 24% selected blurred accountability, attribution and decision rights.

“Before asking whether to adopt TPA, investors should ask what problem they are trying to solve,” Newfield said. “Where are trade-offs hidden? Where are decisions too slow or too siloed? If the existing model already handles those issues well, a wholesale redesign may not be necessary.”

Not every objective can win at once

The paper identifies “objective overload” as a major governance challenge. Asset owners must balance returns, downside resilience, liquidity, fees, regulatory benchmarks, peer comparisons and sustainability commitments – objectives that cannot all be maximised simultaneously.

“Good governance is not a promise that every measure will be green at every meeting,” Newfield said. “It is agreement about what matters most, which constraints cannot be breached and which compromises are acceptable. TPA does not remove those difficult choices. However, it should make them more transparent.”

Complexity must earn its place

A central theme is the role of a reference portfolio: a simple, low-cost expression of the Board’s risk appetite against which a more complex actual portfolio can be assessed. The paper argues that private assets, active strategies and overlays should demonstrate their value after allowing for costs, illiquidity, risk and governance demands.

For Australian investors, the paper argues that regulatory requirements, disclosure, peer comparisons and stakeholder communication can make retaining an SAA anchor sensible, while using total-portfolio thinking to improve risk budgeting, liquidity management and investment choices.

“A hybrid is not necessarily a compromise on quality. It can be the right design for the institution,” Newfield said. “The destination should fit the problem. The standard should always be better decisions, with clear accountability for the total portfolio.”

The next instalments in Frontier’s series will examine measurement, decision tools and the operating-model changes needed to put total-portfolio thinking into practice.

Read the report.

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Raewyn Williams

Briefcase, the Australian investment technology company specialising in tax-aware direct indexing and personalised portfolio solutions, has launched a major upgrade to its investment platform, introducing enhanced performance attribution, portfolio comparison and tax reporting tools to give financial advisers greater visibility into client portfolios.

The upgrade provides advisers with more detailed insights into portfolio performance, including the factors driving returns and the impact of individual client preferences on investment outcomes.

Briefcase founder and CEO Josh Persky said the enhancements reflect the growing demand for greater transparency and personalisation in portfolio management.

“Advisers need to be able to explain not just how a portfolio has performed, but why. As portfolios become increasingly personalised, understanding the contribution of individual holdings, exclusions and investment decisions is essential,” Mr Persky said.

“Our latest platform upgrade makes that information more accessible, helping advisers have more informed conversations with clients and demonstrate the value of personalised portfolio management.”

The enhanced platform introduces several new reporting and analysis capabilities, including:

• Performance attribution: Detailed reporting on portfolio returns, benchmark comparisons and the contribution of individual holdings. For direct indexing portfolios, advisers can also see the impact of client exclusions, portfolio optimisation, currency movements and fees.
• Portfolio comparison: The ability to compare up to three portfolios, supporting clearer analysis of different investment approaches and outcomes.
• Personalisation insights: Greater visibility into client exclusions, including specific stocks, industries and ESG factors, and their impact on portfolio exposures and performance.
• Tax and reporting tools: Improved visibility into realised and unrealised capital gains and losses, alongside downloadable reports and CSV exports.

The upgraded interface also brings performance, holdings, transactions, tax information and reporting into dedicated portfolio tabs, making it easier for advisers to access and interpret key investment data.

Mr Persky said the developments support Briefcase’s broader focus on combining institutional investment capabilities with technology that makes portfolio management more accessible to advisers.

“Technology should make sophisticated portfolio management easier to understand and implement. By bringing performance, personalisation and tax information together, we’re giving advisers a clearer picture of what is happening within their clients’ portfolios.”

The new features are available automatically to existing Briefcase platform users, with no additional setup required.

The upgrade follows Briefcase’s recent appointment of leading after-tax investing specialist Raewyn Williams to its Advisory Board, further strengthening the company’s expertise in tax-aware portfolio management and direct indexing.

Briefcase’s investment solutions are available through major Australian wealth platforms, including BT Panorama, Netwealth, Bell Direct, nabtrade and Praemium.

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Ms Humphris brings more than 25 years of financial markets experience, including senior sales and distribution roles with global investment managers such as Bank of America, Merrill Lynch and Macquarie Group, as well as specialist managers including ABN Amro, La Trobe Financial, Ignition Wealth, Private Portfolio Managers, Clearway Capital and Crowd Property.

Her career has spanned investment management, equity research and institutional stockbroking, providing a broad understanding of investment markets and the commercial dynamics shaping the financial services industry.

Ms Humphris has an extensive network of relationships across wealth management, including independent financial advisers, boutique advice firms, investment platforms, family offices and dealer groups.

In her new role, Humphris will support Succession’s continued growth.

Paul Richardson, managing director of Succession Recruitment, said Ms Humphris’s experience and industry relationships was a valuable addition to the team.

He said the appointment comes as Australia’s financial services sector continues to evolve to today’s dynamic marketplace, creating opportunities for businesses to strengthen their capabilities, develop talent and build deeper relationships across the wealth management industry.

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