Tim Tooheyt

The RBA clearly wrong-footed financial markets and economists yesterday by electing to keep interest rates unchanged. Only five of the 32 people surveyed by Bloomberg expected the RBA to remain on hold, and financial markets yesterday were 100% priced for a 25 bps reduction.​

This is one of the strangest decisions that the RBA has made in the inflation targeting era. As a reminder, the Australian economy expanded just 1.3% (y/y), remains mired in a per capita recession, and the latest inflation data suggests headline inflation of just 2.1% (y/y) over the year to May and trimmed mean inflation of 2.7% (y/y) – well within the target band of 2-3%. Moreover, there are few signs that the prior 50 bps of easing has created anything other than a tepid response (see Chart 1).

​

The RBA decided to make itself the story today. In recent years the RBA decided that a measure of its own success is how well it had communicated its intention to the financial markets, firms and households so as to avoid shocks in expectations. Yet despite overwhelming expectations for an easing and economic data that had continued to undershoot modest expectations, the RBA did not roll back market expectations in any meaningful way in the days leading into the decision.

One can only assume that the RBA chose to remain on hold due to an easing in financial conditions, principally due to the strong rebound in equities and narrowing credit spreads (see Chart 2), and fears that back-to-back rate hikes may ignite the housing market. Of course, the RBA has rolled out the excuse of wanting to wait for further information amid high levels of global uncertainty, however, if anything there is currently greater certainty on geopolitical events than at any time since early April.

It is of note that the vote was far from unanimous. Six of nine voted for the decision, suggesting that three members of the Board likely voted to ease rates yesterday.

If this is merely a tactical pause in an effort to induce a slower cadence of easing to contain asset price growth but ultimately no change in the final destination for rates then today’s pause is small beer, as the easing cycle remains on track albeit just a bit more elongated. However, if this is a sign that the RBA is so unsure of its path that it cannot agree on the strategy to return real interest rate settings towards ‘neutral’ then Australia’s private sector will remain locked in its growth paralysis for longer.

From our perspective the RBA gains little by pausing for a month and has clearly failed in communicating with stakeholders its intentions ahead of time. The Governor suggests that post the RBA reforms it can no longer pre-empt the Board’s decision and seek to guide expectations in the intermeeting period. This is of course a retrograde step, which was one of the criticisms we levelled at the suggested reforms, but it is also nonsense to suggest that in a situation where the market is treating a prospective RBA decision as a certainty and the RBA Board members preference is to pause, that the RBA cannot convey that uncertainty in a timely manner. While the RBA may prefer to say it has retained optionality, yesterday’s decision looks more like an own goal. The RBA has merely allowed real interest rates to drift higher at a time of faltering economic growth and contained inflation risks.

We expect the RBA will ease in August and November in 2025, and we have added a further cut in November 2026, retaining our 2.6% terminal cash rate forecast for this cycle.

By Tim Toohey, Head of Macro and Strategy

The post RBA shocks markets with hold amid easing conditions and asset surge appeared first on AdviserVoice.

Roy Keenan

Yarra Capital Management (Yarra), one of Australia’s largest independent active fund managers, is pleased to announce that leading research house Lonsec has upgraded Yarra’s Enhanced Income Fund (Fund) to its highest rating, ‘Highly Recommended.’

Lonsec said the awarding of its top rating reflects a combination of the considerable investment expertise of the Fund’s Portfolio Manager and its underlying track record of conservative risk management and strong performance over time.

In assigning its highest rating, Lonsec commended the Fund’s conservatively managed approach to investing in hybrid and other high yield securities, which it noted has resulted in medium-term returns above the peer median (from a total, excess and income perspective).

Lonsec also cited the combined expertise of the investment team, led by Roy Keenan, Portfolio Manager and Co-Head of Fixed Income, and Darren Langer, Co-Head of Fixed Income, both with over 30 years of credit analysis and fixed income investment experience. Their leadership added “strong skills and experience in credit analysis and portfolio structure” to the Fund’s investment process, Lonsec said.

Launched in June 2003, the Yarra Enhanced Income Fund aims to earn higher returns than traditional cash management and fixed income investments (over the medium to long term) through exposure to a diversified portfolio of hybrid (debt/equity) and fixed income securities.

The Fund engages 10 investment professionals to manage between 80 and 120 issuers, weighted largely towards higher-quality credits and preferred relative value stocks. Since inception, the fund has delivered a return of 6.05% per annum (net of fees, including franking) to the end of October 2024, equivalent to an excess return of 2.77% per annum above the RBA Cash Rate over the same period.

Lonsec’s report noted that the Fund’s ‘Highly Recommended’ rating reflects the research house’s view that it has a ‘very strong conviction that the product can meet its investment objectives.’

Roy Keenan, Portfolio Manager of Yarra Capital Management’s Enhanced Income Fund, commented: “We are honoured to receive an upgrade to Lonsec’s highest possible rating, reflective of the Fund’s strong, long-term investment performance. We thank clients and advisers for their support over the Fund’s 20-year journey, and look forward to continuing to deliver consistent returns into the future.”

Edward Eason, Managing Director of Yarra Capital Management, commented: “The further endorsement from Lonsec is reflective of Yarra’s relentless pursuit of risk-adjusted returns and an unwavering commitment to its philosophy and process. We congratulate Roy and the team, and are excited for the ongoing successes that lie ahead.”

——–

Notes:
[1] Lonsec ratings definitions, Yarra Enhanced Income Fund, Lonsec Research, 21 November 2024.

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Katie Hudson

The key point is that while we had been expecting a drawdown in equity markets in Q3 and a decent rally in bonds, this was expedited by the US labour market triggering the Sahm rule and a poor ISM report.

While it’s hard to argue too much that the risk of recession in the US hasn’t risen somewhat – let’s call it to ~30% probability – it is not our base case and the key difference is that some of the key aspects that generate recession outcomes are not currently evident, in particular:​

1. Clear policy error: While I was surprised that Fed market pricing for a cut wasn’t higher for July, it’s likely that the Fed will be doing 50bp moves in Sep and Dec (US election may see a skip for the Nov meeting). The Fed has done a pretty reasonable job faced with the information they had available to hand.  It’s clear they discussed easing in July and no doubt they sense a greater degree of urgency to act now to forestall a larger-than-desired easing of the labour market. As such, there is no clear policy error at this point that could lead to non-linear outcomes.
2. A breakdown in credit provision: Credit was already tight heading into this market correction if you use the Fed’s Loan Officers Survey as a guide. There are risks that a financial institution of size gets into trouble as the carry trade unwinds, but at this point there is no evidence that a systemic threat to markets has been breached.
3. Expectation shocks: This is the main mechanism that turns economic downswings into recessionary shocks. It’s important to note that the economic cycle was not coming in ‘hot’ to this event with high levels of enthusiasm and optimism. Instead, business and consumer sentiment are closer to their cyclical lows than highs, and prior strength in US economic growth was more sourced from fiscal stimulus rather than excess private demand growth. That is, an abrupt expectation shock in the private sector is less likely and, as such, a sharp retracement in activity growth is also less likely.

Of course, the starting point mattered.  Equity markets had run ahead of the economic dataflow and the shift in the policy framework in Japan that prompted an unwind of Yen-financed carry trades has also been important in driving this correction.  While it’s relatively easy to calibrate how much the market would need to adjust for the first of these factors, having any reasonable accurate gauge on the second of these factors is difficult.  The movement in $/Yen suggests a further unwind is still likely in the carry trade, but as volatility settles back down you cannot rule out the reestablishment of some of these trades.

Has the correction finished yet? Well, we are closer to some technicals which will entice some buying, but the reality is that the macro landscape will still determine where the market lands in coming weeks.  From our perspective, the US labour market is in a trend deterioration until late 2024 and this will be the rate determining step for risk markets.  Until some lead indicators of the US labour market stabilise, it’s likely that risk assets will have trouble sustaining gains.​

The good news is that we are about 50% through the adjustment in equity markets and that concerns over excess inflation can now be relegated to history.  Rate cuts are clearly coming in size, and once the early signs appear that the easing is having its desired impact and the US election outcome is known, it’s likely that equity markets will be more focused on economic recovery than recession.

​Comments By Tim Toohey, Head of Macro and Strategy

The market sell-off has been largely indiscriminate with little dispersion between sectors and stocks to date. Against that backdrop, we believe there are attractive opportunities to differentiate on fundamentals and take advantage of attractive opportunities.

In particular, we are seeing opportunities to build holdings in the small cap space across the following:

• Well-placed REITs which are trading at significant discounts to asset backing, despite valuations stabilising, and in some cases once again expanding.
• Industrial companies with good business models and strong management teams which have been sold off on cyclical concern.
• High-quality growth companies where valuation support is improving, albeit we are being more price sensitive in this area given the elevated starting point for valuations.

We will continue to exploit the volatility by focusing on the long-term fundamentals.

​Comments By Katie Hudson, Head of Australian Equities Research

The post Why Yarra is not calling a US recession yet appeared first on AdviserVoice.

• The healthcare sector continues to be supported by strong long-term growth drivers, presenting overall as good value compared to history.
• The healthcare suppliers’ sub-sector, including equipment distributors (i.e. device suppliers) offer the best growth prospects, while we believe healthcare provider companies (hospitals, pathology) face challenges.
• Yarra views ResMed as a top investment pick within the healthcare sector despite the hype around weight loss drugs.

The healthcare sector isn’t just a refuge for cautious investors—it’s a thriving arena of innovation, growth and potential. As healthcare stocks become more appealing on lower multiples, the sector’s allure is undeniable, yet discerning true value requires more than a glance at current valuations. Amidst a complex environment, ResMed emerges as a standout candidate, offering compelling reasons to take a closer look.

From an investment viewpoint the healthcare sector is a multifaceted and evolving field, encompassing a wide range of businesses—from those supplying medical equipment and devices to those offering healthcare services and facilities, as well as companies advancing biotechnology, pharmaceuticals and technology. Historically, this sector has consistently outperformed the broader market, though it usually commands a valuation premium. Currently, valuations in healthcare are relatively low as the sector continues to recovery from Covid-disruptions, hinting at potential opportunities emerging.

Over the past decade, ASX healthcare sales and earnings have surged at [three times] the annual rate of ASX Industrial companies, making it an attractive sector and highlighting its quality attributes. Consensus forecasts predict 16% earnings growth for FY25, although we believe this projection may be overly optimistic.

While we are currently underweight in the sector overall, we currently see several promising opportunities within the sector. Specifically, we see opportunities in the Suppliers sub-sector, which appears particularly appealing. Conversely, we remain cautious about the Providers and Biotech subsectors due to margin recovery challenges and elevated expectations.

Challenges in healthcare: Why we believe providers and biotech will struggle

With inflation remaining high, companies in the Providers subsector—those offering healthcare services—are grappling with rising operational costs, in particular labour cost inflation. These firms typically lack the pricing power to pass on those higher costs, leading to squeezed margins. This struggle is evident in the last earnings updates from companies such as hospital group Ramsay Healthcare (ASX) and pathology leader Sonic Healthcare (ASX), and we expect will feature in upcoming results.

In the Biotech subsector, we see a slightly different picture. In the case of CSL, we note expectations are already elevated around the business’ ability to return margins from its global blood plasma business back to pre-Covid levels over the next few years. Moreover, of the 16 research analysts that cover CSL, 12 rate the stock a ‘buy’ or a ‘strong buy’ (only 1 is a ‘sell’) leaving less opportunity for positive surprise.

Suppliers: Capitalising on post-Covid demand and device access

Our primary focus is on the Suppliers part of the healthcare sector, comprising a number of quality business that have faced temporary disruption or stock over-reactions. Unlike the Providers, who struggle with limited pricing power, and Biotech companies where forward expectations are already elevated, Suppliers are experiencing different challenges. This sector, including Cochlear implants and ResMed CPAP machines, is benefiting from the ongoing normalisation in patient demand post-Covid, with evidence of stronger market share participation and improving practitioner availability.

Weight Loss Drugs: A lesser threat to ResMed’s market opportunity

Last year, weight loss medications including Ozempic captured headlines for their potential impact on obesity, overshadowing other significant healthcare developments. As excitement surged around these new market favourites, established healthcare stocks were largely overlooked and some were sharply sold off due to speculation about a transformed healthcare landscape. ResMed (ASX), known for its devices treating obstructive sleep apnoea, was one such latter example. The company saw notable volatility, including two steep selldowns, as investors worried that weight loss drugs might reduce the need for its products by improving sleep quality for those with obesity-related sleep issues.

As the initial excitement about weight loss drugs waned and ResMed’s share price stabilised, it became apparent that the anticipated threat to ResMed could be well managed, and weight loss drugs could prove to be more complementary for CPAP demand, rather than replacing it. Additionally, well less than half of CPAP users in the US are non-diabetic and obesity driven, leaving a significant market for ResMed’s devices in what remains a significantly under-penetrated market. Moreover, a recent study of 660,000 patients revealed that GLP-1 users were actually 10.5% more likely to start CPAP treatment and had higher resupply rates over one and two years.

It is also worth noting the real-world challenges around weight loss drug adherence. Numerous studies to date point to 12-month adherence rates being well below 50% driven by a combination of affordability (obesity-driven users typically pay around US$12,000 outof-pocket in the US) and side-effect concerns. Side-effect risk was highlighted in July following the release of analysis from doctors at Massachusetts Eye and Ear, a Harvardaffiliated hospital, that pointed to potential heightened risk of vision loss from weight loss drugs.

Examining ResMed’s market position, it stands out with few true competitors, the main one being Philips, which continues to deal with a product recall which was first announced in mid-2021. Uncertainties persist regarding when Philips will re-enter the US market with a sleep apnoea device and the extent of operating constraints and compliance oversight once the regulator does permit them to return to the market. In terms of ASX peers, ResMed appears attractively priced at around 23x earnings, materially below its 10-year average of 28x earnings. In contrast, the ASX200 Industrials currently trades at approximately 19.8x earnings, meaningfully above their 10-year average (17.5x earnings).

Given ResMed’s robust standing in the sleep apnoea market as the clear market leader, its expected sales resilience despite the rise of GLP-1s, and the renewed demand for ventilators and masks post-Covid, we continue to maintain an overweight position in our portfolio. Word count: 806

By Marcus Ryan, Deputy Portfolio Manager, Broadcap Equities

The post Capitalising on recent underperformance and temporary disruption in the healthcare sector appeared first on AdviserVoice.

Non-China EM was the driving force of the initial recovery. Albeit China’s own recovery has well and truly arrived.  While Chinese economic sentiment and financial market sentiment remain poor their factories are bustling along.

It might surprise some to learn that Chinese industrial production is expanding at 6.7%yoy – the best out come since Covid and above the 5 year average prior to Covid.

In contrast US industrial production remains near zero.

The good news is that China’s modest bout of deflation and strong production growth will continue to assist in driving down inflation in the West and as the industrial cycle in the US and Europe builds momentum the encouraging broadening of equity market returns beyond just Mega Cap Tech can continue.

But the question of whether markets have suddenly become too hot to too quickly is now a key focus.

Asset divergence

With gold prices surging, the Australia equity market significantly out performing EM equity markets, and the AUD underperforming safe haven currencies are not consistent with broad based excess risk taking.  Credit spreads are tight and cyclicals have certainly run much harder than defensives inside of equity markets but that is what you expect to see in a world of better than expected growth and the prospect of monetary stimulus arriving from mid-2024.

Indeed, the easing in financial conditions that has occurred via strong equity markets and narrower credit spreads should be held in the context that the surprising fiscal stimulus delivered globally in 2023 is in the process of retreating to a more neutral stance.  That is the growth baton is being passed from fiscal to monetary policy rather than the idea that some modest monetary easing will equate to significantly stronger economic growth that threatens future inflation.

Australia, and its peer group, are no longer operating above their productive capacity.  Ultimately this is the single best indicator that inflation will normalise.

For most people it seems that ongoing labour market strength in the US and Australia is challenging the notion that any easing is required at all, however, we would make several points here:

1. Most of the job growth in the US and Australia is coming via Government, Government sponsored infrastructure and Government funded healthcare. In Australia the NDIS is a force unto itself.
2. US labour market indicators are not universally suggesting inflation risk.
   i. The NFIB labour hiring intension data suggests payroll strength will soon weaken materially – and this indicator has been quite a reliable future guide in recent years to employment gains.
   ii. The JOLTs data suggests wages growth will continue to ebb in coming months – with the quits rate having been an excellent future guide to wages growth.
   iii. Measure of services inflation such as the prices paid component of the PMI continues to fall sharply – suggesting that wage pressures are not spilling into excess price pressures in the all important services sector in the US.

Real income growth remains key

The appropriate response to monetary policy to a robust labour market is not just to look backwards, but to look at what the more reliable forward indicators of labour demand are telling us about labour costs and to make an assessment of the impact of current government policies on demand.  The best way to achieve this is to look at underlying income real growth.  In many ways this is the most important chart for 2024 for four reasons.

Firstly, it shows why everyone was so upset in 2023 – real income growth declined massively in 2023 easily eclipsing the declines we saw in the 91-92 recession.

Secondly, it shows that the end of 2023 posted some particularly robust wage growth and much better inflation outcomes that drove real income growth positive in the final quarter of the year.  This was welcome and surprising.

Thirdly it highlights that despite the laser like focus on RBA interest rate adjustments the prospect of a couple of rate cuts is not such an important driver of a recovery in real income growth.  It helps, and it certainly helps younger and more indebted households to a greater extent, but in a world where asset-based income is broadly equivalent to mortgage interest payments the net impact of interest rate rises is diluted in the aggregate.

Fourthly, the much debated income tax cuts will indeed help, removing the drag that tax paid imparts on real income growth temporarily in 2H24, until bracket creep again commences its recapture in 2025.

Persistent labour income (in part due to the persistence embedded in the EBA system and ongoing labour shortages in service based sectors of the economy) in concert with moderating inflation is what is doing the vast majority of the work in driving a recovery in real household income growth. This is what ends up delivering happier households and sustainable economic recoveries.  It just happens to be the exact same dynamic being played out across most major economies in the coming year and that is a key reason to remain on the optimistic side of financial market positioning.

What’s ahead for investors

We started the year with a 10% target gain in large cap equities and a 15% target gain in small cap equities for 2024.

Markets are certainly moving in that direction and while we are alert to signs of excessive risk taking and signs of an imminent pullback, we expect the June quarter to remain another positive gain for the Australian equity market.

The bigger risk is that bond yield yields need to also recalibrate for a stronger growth environment and shallower interest rate easing cycles, however, that may be more a risk for later in 2024.

The post What’s next for markets? While there have been a few surprises, core Europe and the US are now in recovery mode appeared first on AdviserVoice.

Jessica will join from Westpac, where she is currently a Rates Strategist responsible for delivering analysis on the global and domestic rates market. She joined Westpac’s Financial Markets & Treasury team in 2020, where she initially gained broad experience across institutional sales, credit trading and treasury operations.

At Yarra, Jessica will work closely alongside Darren Langer (Co-Head of Australian Fixed Income) to support the management of the Firm’s fixed income and cash portfolios, with a focus on macro, rates and sector allocation matters.

Darren Langer, Co-Head of Australian Fixed Income, Yarra Capital Management, commented: “We are excited to welcome Jessica to the team as we continue to build out what is already one of Australia’s largest independent, active fixed income franchises.”

The post Yarra announces appoints new Investment Manager, Fixed Income appeared first on AdviserVoice.

The RBA hiked rates for the seventh consecutive month as it seeks to stifle inflation. Global central banks continue aggressive monetary tightening despite early signs of moderating inflation and weaker forward growth indicators.

With the consumer bearing the brunt of high inflation and tighter financial conditions, the RBA has backed away from aggressive rate hikes for now. Will other central banks follow, or is this a temporary reprieve?

Chris and Darren debate this and more in episode 32 of The Rate Debate.

Listen to the full podcast series:

• Podcast 1: The Rate Debate
• Podcast 2: Down, but not out
• Podcast 3: The Rate Debate Special Edition
• Podcast 4: The RBA’s buying spree
• Podcast 5: Credit crunch or crisis?
• Podcast 6: Out of step
• Podcast 7: Sting in the tale
• Podcast 8: Is Australia ready for more monetary stimulus?
• Podcast 9: Talk is cheap
• Podcast 10: Has the RBA gone too far by not going far enough?
• Podcast 11: The RBA finally unleashes the bazooka
• Podcast 12: Could house prices top 20% growth in 2021?
• Podcast 13: Could housing be the good news story for 2021?
• Podcast 14: What’s driving interest rates higher?
• Podcast 15: Is the free ride over?
• Podcast 16: Are we heading for a debt trap?
• Podcast 17: Could an increase in interest rates derail the housing market?
• Podcast 18: The market versus the RBA – is a hike before 2024 likely?
• Podcast 19: RBA sees Delta impact as a temporary phenomenon
• Podcast 20: Is the RBA banking on a rebound?
• Podcast 20: Is the RBA banking on a rebound?
• Podcast 21: Is the heat coming off the housing market?
• Podcast 22: Bond market loses confidence in the RBA’s forward guidance
• Podcast 23: The reopening trade to determine economic growth in 2022
• Podcast 24: Podcast 24: RBA ends QE and pushes back on rate hike
• Podcast 25:RBA ends QE and pushes back on rate hike
• Podcast 26: How high and how fast can rates go?
• Podcast 27: Is the RBA risking a recession to solve inflation?
• Podcast 28: Has the RBA hit panic mode?
• Podcast 29: Leaders indicators warn of global recession
• Podcast 30: Can the RBA thread the needle?
• Podcast 31: No sign of pause from the RBA as the risk of mortgage stress intensifies
• Podcast 32: Podcast 32: Are central banks at risk of blowing up markets?

The post Podcast 33: Storm clouds continue to gather in global markets appeared first on AdviserVoice.

Erin Kuo

Leading Independent Australian fund manager Yarra Capital Management (Yarra) is delighted to announce the appointment of Dr Erin Kuo as the Firm’s Chief Sustainability Officer.

Based in Melbourne, Dr Kuo brings more than 15 years’ experience working within sustainability. She will lead Yarra’s corporate sustainability and work closely with Yarra’s investment teams to support best practise Environment, Social and Governance (ESG) integration into the Firm’s investment processes.

Before joining Yarra, Dr Kuo ran a consulting business, advising fund managers and family offices on ESG matters. She was previously Chief Impact Officer at Impact Investment Group and held senior positions across Impact Investing Australia and Pacific Corporate Group, the world’s largest cleantech private equity investor, where she led projects in the US, India and Australia.

Dr Kuo has previously worked as a university researcher and lecturer on sustainability measurement and social impact, and has led projects on social enterprise and impact investing for the Victorian Government and the Responsible Investment Association of Australasia. Earlier in her career she worked as a financial advisor at Morgan Stanley, building and leading community development and environmental advocacy for non-profits in the US. Dr Kuo has a BA in Environmental Science from the University of California, a PhD from Monash University, and is a previous Adjunct Fellow at the Centre for Social Impact at Swinburne University.

Dion Hershan, Executive Chairman and Head of Australian Equities at Yarra Capital Management, commented:

“We are incredibly excited to be welcoming Erin to Yarra. There has never been greater focus on ESG and sustainability matters in financial markets, and Erin’s deep experience will significantly benefit the investment solutions and expertise we can offer to our clients.”

Dr Erin Kuo, Chief Sustainability Officer, added:

“I’m thrilled to have joined Yarra Capital Management to lead the Firm’s sustainability efforts. I am incredibly passionate about deepening positive impact for people and the planet and am excited to now be working with Yarra’s investment teams to build out our sustainability capabilities and tools.”

The post Dr Erin Kuo joins Yarra as inaugural Chief Sustainability Officer appeared first on AdviserVoice.

The RBA has now hiked rates for the sixth consecutive month. With lead indicators showing signs of inflation coming off the boil and European banks starting to see stress, cracks are forming in the credit and equity markets. Have central banks tightened too aggressively risking a recession?

Chris and Darren debate this and more in episode 32 of The Rate Debate.

Listen to the full podcast series:

• Podcast 1: The Rate Debate
• Podcast 2: Down, but not out
• Podcast 3: The Rate Debate Special Edition
• Podcast 4: The RBA’s buying spree
• Podcast 5: Credit crunch or crisis?
• Podcast 6: Out of step
• Podcast 7: Sting in the tale
• Podcast 8: Is Australia ready for more monetary stimulus?
• Podcast 9: Talk is cheap
• Podcast 10: Has the RBA gone too far by not going far enough?
• Podcast 11: The RBA finally unleashes the bazooka
• Podcast 12: Could house prices top 20% growth in 2021?
• Podcast 13: Could housing be the good news story for 2021?
• Podcast 14: What’s driving interest rates higher?
• Podcast 15: Is the free ride over?
• Podcast 16: Are we heading for a debt trap?
• Podcast 17: Could an increase in interest rates derail the housing market?
• Podcast 18: The market versus the RBA – is a hike before 2024 likely?
• Podcast 19: RBA sees Delta impact as a temporary phenomenon
• Podcast 20: Is the RBA banking on a rebound?
• Podcast 20: Is the RBA banking on a rebound?
• Podcast 21: Is the heat coming off the housing market?
• Podcast 22: Bond market loses confidence in the RBA’s forward guidance
• Podcast 23: The reopening trade to determine economic growth in 2022
• Podcast 24: Podcast 24: RBA ends QE and pushes back on rate hike
• Podcast 25:RBA ends QE and pushes back on rate hike
• Podcast 26: How high and how fast can rates go?
• Podcast 27: Is the RBA risking a recession to solve inflation?
• Podcast 28: Has the RBA hit panic mode?
• Podcast 29: Leaders indicators warn of global recession
• Podcast 30: Can the RBA thread the needle?
• Podcast 31: No sign of pause from the RBA as the risk of mortgage stress intensifies
• Podcast 32: Podcast 32: Are central banks at risk of blowing up markets?

The post Podcast 32: Are central banks at risk of blowing up markets? appeared first on AdviserVoice.

Australia’s central bank has now raised interest rates five months in a row. It’s the most aggressive tightening cycle since 1994. With more hikes expected, and house prices in Sydney and Melbourne on the slide, cracks are starting to appear.

Chris and Darren discuss how further rate hikes will impact the housing market, unemployment rate, and the wider economy in episode 31 of The Rate Debate.

Darren and Chris discuss this and more in episode 31 of The Rate Debate.

Listen to the full podcast series:

• Podcast 1: The Rate Debate
• Podcast 2: Down, but not out
• Podcast 3: The Rate Debate Special Edition
• Podcast 4: The RBA’s buying spree
• Podcast 5: Credit crunch or crisis?
• Podcast 6: Out of step
• Podcast 7: Sting in the tale
• Podcast 8: Is Australia ready for more monetary stimulus?
• Podcast 9: Talk is cheap
• Podcast 10: Has the RBA gone too far by not going far enough?
• Podcast 11: The RBA finally unleashes the bazooka
• Podcast 12: Could house prices top 20% growth in 2021?
• Podcast 13: Could housing be the good news story for 2021?
• Podcast 14: What’s driving interest rates higher?
• Podcast 15: Is the free ride over?
• Podcast 16: Are we heading for a debt trap?
• Podcast 17: Could an increase in interest rates derail the housing market?
• Podcast 18: The market versus the RBA – is a hike before 2024 likely?
• Podcast 19: RBA sees Delta impact as a temporary phenomenon
• Podcast 20: Is the RBA banking on a rebound?
• Podcast 20: Is the RBA banking on a rebound?
• Podcast 21: Is the heat coming off the housing market?
• Podcast 22: Bond market loses confidence in the RBA’s forward guidance
• Podcast 23: The reopening trade to determine economic growth in 2022
• Podcast 24: Podcast 24: RBA ends QE and pushes back on rate hike
• Podcast 25:RBA ends QE and pushes back on rate hike
• Podcast 26: How high and how fast can rates go?
• Podcast 27: Is the RBA risking a recession to solve inflation?
• Podcast 28: Has the RBA hit panic mode?
• Podcast 29: Leaders indicators warn of global recession
• Podcast 30: Can the RBA thread the needle?
• Podcast 31: No sign of pause from the RBA as the risk of mortgage stress intensifies

The post Podcast 31: No sign of pause from the RBA as the risk of mortgage stress intensifies appeared first on AdviserVoice.