• Industry employment: Employment rose by 119,800 over the three months to August – the biggest quarterly increase in over almost a decade (since November 2004).
• Mining jobs fall: Mining employment fell by a record 27,100 jobs in the August quarter.
• More jobs in Education than Manufacturing. The number of people employed in the Education & Training sector now exceeds those employed in Manufacturing for the first time.

What does it all mean?

• The baton continues to be passed from mining to other parts of the economy. In the past three months, a record 27,100 jobs were lost in mining after falls in the previous six months. But more importantly, the jobs lost in mining and parts of the public service are being more than absorbed in other parts of the economy.
• The latest data confirms large scale job creation in the three months to August with more jobs created than at any three month period in a decade. More people in jobs, means more spending and therefore more momentum for the economy.
• Many Australians are still rubbing their eyes about the extent of job creation in the economy. But it is important to note that 97 per cent of businesses in the economy employ less than 20 people (88 per cent have less than four staff). And if small and medium-sized business picks up an extra worker here and an extra worker there, it all adds up.
• The Reserve Bank won’t be in a rush to change monetary policy settings. The RBA wants to ensure that the ‘baton change’ goes seamlessly and will make sure the baton isn’t dropped along the way.
• Australia continues to change from a manufacturing nation to that focussed on services. Thirty years ago manufacturing employed double the number of jobs as the education sector. Even a decade ago there were 30 per cent more people in manufacturing than education. Hopefully this new focus on education and training means a regular supply of productive staff for businesses.

What does the data show?

Industry employment:

• Economy-wide employment rose by 119,800 in the three months to August 2014 – the fastest growth in almost a decade (since the three months to November 2004). Over the year jobs rose by 252,500 – the most in three years.
• Employment rose in 13 of the 19 industry sectors. Employment rose most in Education & Training (up 31,800), followed by Health Care & Social Assistance (up 30,400) and Retail Trade (up 26,200).
• In the quarter, jobs fell the most in Mining (down by a record 27,100) followed by Administrative and Support Services (down by 23,400) and Public Administration and Safety (down by 14,900)
• Healthcare remains the biggest employer with 1.42 million employees (12.2 per cent of the total) followed by Retail Trade (1.26 million jobs or 10.8 per cent) and Construction (1.05 million or 9.0 per cent).
• Education & Training sector has passed Manufacturing for the first time in terms of people employed. Education & Training is the fifth largest employer with 937,600 jobs with Manufacturing at 917,900 jobs.

What is the importance of the report?

• The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) provides detailed labour market figures one week after releasing ‘top level’ statistics of employment & unemployment levels across states and territories. The detailed data is useful in identifying broader underlying trends and instructive about the health of the economy.
• In the broader (macro) economy, the job market trends are positive. More in jobs, and more businesses looking for staff. The lift in productivity and weak wage growth are further positives for the hiring of staff. And more people in work, means more spending. Jobs lost in some sectors are being picked up in others.
• But at a regional level, the changes in the job market mean a degree of pain is being felt. Mining regions are shedding jobs, causing workers to travel farther afield to get jobs or to shift into other industries such as construction.
• The Reserve Bank will continue to monitor the ‘baton change’ but it must be happy with what it sees. Rates clearly won’t be cut in coming months, but it is still too early to talk about rate hikes, especially with inflation well contained.

What are the implications for interest rates and investors?

• In the broader (macro) economy, the job market trends are positive. More in jobs, and more businesses looking for staff. The lift in productivity and weak wage growth are further positives for the hiring of staff. And more people in work, means more spending. Jobs lost in some sectors are being picked up in others.
• But at a regional level, the changes in the job market mean a degree of pain is being felt. Mining regions are shedding jobs, causing workers to travel farther afield to get jobs or to shift into other industries such as construction.
• The Reserve Bank will continue to monitor the ‘baton change’ but it must be happy with what it sees. Rates clearly won’t be cut in coming months, but it is still too early to talk about rate hikes, especially with inflation well contained.

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• 

  Employment growth surpassed optimistic expectations.

  Jobs gains: Employment rose by a record high 121,000 in August after falling by a revised 4,100 in July (previously reported as a 300 fall in jobs). Full-time jobs rose by 14,300 in August after rising by 15,400 in July. Part-time jobs rose by 106,700 in August after falling by 4,100 in July.

• A total of 236,500 new jobs have been created in the first eight months of 2014 – the best start to a calendar year since 2005.
• Jobless rate slides: The unemployment rate fell from 6.4 per cent to 6.1 per cent in August. The participation rate rose from 64.9 per cent to 65.2 per cent.
• Hours worked was unchanged in August after falling by 1.0 per cent in July. Hours worked are up 0.6 per cent over the year.
• Tame Chinese inflation: Producer prices fell by 1.2 per cent in the year to August (median forecast was for a 1.1 per cent decline). Consumer prices rose by 2.0 per cent over the year (median forecast 2.2 per cent).
• In August, consumer prices rose by 0.2 per cent. Producer prices fell by 0.2 per cent.

What does it all mean?

• Employment growth surpassed even our rather optimistic expectations. Part time jobs growth of over 106,000 jobs or a record total (part time plus full-time) 121,000 jobs in one month? Well it is hard to take this at face value, and no doubt there is some level of statistical discrepancy. But it does resonate with the lift in the employment landscape conditions over the past year. And more importantly rather than focusing on one month’s data the broader trend shows a similar picture.
• Last year employers were working existing staff longer and there had been a lift in productivity, while it is now clear that employers are adding to the workforce – whether it is part time or full-time roles. In fact jobs growth has been solid with almost 127,000 full-time jobs having been created in the first eight months of 2014 – marking the best start to a calendar year in four years.
• The one key positive out of the super-strong result is that it should ease concerns about the labour market. All the noise about the prior result – 12–year high unemployment rate in July- dampened consumer confidence. However this time round despite the lift in the participation rate – which suggests more people are looking for work – the unemployment rate eased back to 6.1 per cent. The latest result should help to ease some of those concerns. An improvement in confidence would certainly bode well for retail activity and broader economic growth.
• Labour market conditions have certainly improved in recent months. Business conditions are healthy, profitability has improved and more importantly forward order books are starting to fill up. No doubt the business sector is feeling more comfortable hiring as can be seen by the ongoing lift in job advertisements. More people are looking for work and more people are finding work as well – a result that should increase household incomes.
• The Reserve Bank would certainly be feeling a bit more comfortable. It’s all running pretty much to plan. Even the recent US dollar strength has resulted in the Aussie dollar falling to a six-month low. Clearly the Reserve Bank has no need to be moving rates in any direction at present. The earliest timing of the first rate hike is February next year, but it requires a further improvement in activity levels and a stronger lift in employment.
• Chinese inflation remains benign and is certainly no threat to the broader Chinese economy. Consumer inflation is healthy without being excessive and business inflation is still contracting. More importantly the data in recent weeks suggests the Chinese economy has found a solid base and has lifted after a lacklustre start to the year. If growth doesn’t rebound Chinese authorities are certainly well placed to provide further stimulus.Focus will shift to the retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment figures due out on Saturday.

What do the figures show?

Labour force:

• Employment rose by a record high 121,000 in August after falling by a revised 4,100 in July (previously reported as a 300 fall in jobs). Full-time jobs rose by 14,300 in August after rising by 15,400 in July. Part-time jobs rose by 106,700 in August after falling by 4,100 in July.
• The unemployment rate fell from 6.4 per cent to 6.1 per cent in August. The participation rate rose from 64.9 per cent to 65.2 per cent.
• The number of hours worked was unchanged in August after falling by 1.0 per cent in July. Hours worked are up 0.6 per cent over the year.
• The annual employment growth rate rose from 0.9 per cent to 2.2 per cent in August. The working age population grew by 26,100 people in August and by 3441,700 over the year or 1.82 per cent.
• Unemployment across states and territories: NSW 5.7 per cent (July 5.9 per cent); Victoria 6.8 per cent (7.0 per cent); Queensland 6.7 per cent (6.8 per cent); South Australia 5.9 per cent (7.2 per cent); Western Australia 5.0 per cent (5.2 per cent); Tasmania 7.1 per cent (7.6 per cent). Trend unemployment Northern Territory 4.8 per cent (4.6 per cent); ACT 4.6 per cent (4.3 per cent).
• Jobs across states and territories: NSW +45,300; Victoria +26,100; Queensland +26,500; South Australia +16,800; Western Australia +9,600; Tasmania +3,800. Trend employment Northern Territory +200; ACT +700.

Chinese inflation data

• The annual rate of consumer price inflation fell from 2.3 per cent in July to 2.0 per cent in August. The result was below forecasts for annual growth of 2.2 per cent. Over the month consumer prices rose by 0.2 per cent, mildly weaker than forecasts.
• Food prices rose by 0.7 per cent in August after falling by 0.1 per cent in July with non-food prices down 0.1 per cent in August. Pork prices lifted by a much more sedate 0.1 per cent in August. Over the year to August, food prices rose by 3 per cent while non-food prices were up by 1.5 per cent.
• Annual price growth: Clothing prices rose by 2.6 per cent in the year to August; tobacco & liquor prices fell 0.6 per cent annually; transport & communications rose 0.2 per cent annually; household equipment & maintenance prices were up 1.1 per cent annually; healthcare & personal products rose by 1.4 per cent annually; entertainment & educational rose 1.9 per cent annually.
• Producer prices (business inflation) fell by 0.2 per cent in August. Producer prices in August were 1.2 per cent lower than a year ago. Economists had tipped a 1.1 per cent annual decline.
• The Labour Force estimates are derived from a monthly survey conducted by the Bureau of Statistics. The population survey is based on a multi-stage area sample of private dwellings (currently about 22,800 houses, flats, etc.) and a sample of non-private dwellings (hotels, motels, etc.). The survey covers about 0.24 per cent of the population of Australia and includes all people over 15 years of age, except defence personnel.
• If more people are employed, then there is greater spending power in the economy. But at the same time companies may adjust the work hours of employees. If employees work less hours, and therefore get paid less, then spending power in the economy is reduced.
• China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases its monthly economic statistics around mid-month. Quarterly GDP data is released around the 16th of January, April, July and October. China’s Customs Office releases trade data, and the People’s Bank of China releases financial statistics, around the 10^th of each month. China is Australia’s largest trading partner and changes in the Chinese economic have major implications for the Aussie economy.
• In the past, employment data has been volatile around turning points, but clearly the last eight months of jobs growth suggest an improvement in labour market conditions, despite the likely statistical discrepancies job creation. Hopefully the focus in the latest data will centre on the ongoing lift in employment from a broader perspective than just one month’s data.
• RBA business liaisons have commented on the noticeable lift in business hiring intentions and it suggests labour market conditions are heading in the right direction. Employers are working existing staff harder but as profitability improves, management will feel more comfortable increasing head count.
• Clearly the Reserve Bank has no need to be moving rates in any direction at present.

Why is the data important?

• The Labour Force estimates are derived from a monthly survey conducted by the Bureau of Statistics. The population survey is based on a multi-stage area sample of private dwellings (currently about 22,800 houses, flats, etc.) and a sample of non-private dwellings (hotels, motels, etc.). The survey covers about 0.24 per cent of the population of Australia and includes all people over 15 years of age, except defence personnel.
• If more people are employed, then there is greater spending power in the economy. But at the same time companies may adjust the work hours of employees. If employees work less hours, and therefore get paid less, then spending power in the economy is reduced.
• China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases its monthly economic statistics around mid-month. Quarterly GDP data is released around the 16th of January, April, July and October. China’s Customs Office releases trade data, and the People’s Bank of China releases financial statistics, around the 10^th of each month. China is Australia’s largest trading partner and changes in the Chinese economic have major implications for the Aussie economy.

What are the implications?

• In the past, employment data has been volatile around turning points, but clearly the last eight months of jobs growth suggest an improvement in labour market conditions, despite the likely statistical discrepancies job creation. Hopefully the focus in the latest data will centre on the ongoing lift in employment from a broader perspective than just one month’s data.
• RBA business liaisons have commented on the noticeable lift in business hiring intentions and it suggests labour market conditions are heading in the right direction. Employers are working existing staff harder but as profitability improves, management will feel more comfortable increasing head count.
• Clearly the Reserve Bank has no need to be moving rates in any direction at present.

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What do the figures show and what does it all mean?

When you think of big employers, you tend to think of major banks, retailers or mining companies. But if you are looking at the industries which have a big concentration of firms employing more than 200 people, you may be surprised at the results. “Big Business” includes schools, hospitals, takeaway food businesses and hotels.

Across Australia, there is a raft of firms in both the Aged Care Services and Labour Supply Services industries that have more than 200 staff.

But some of the results across Australia are less surprising. For instance in Western Australia, there is a high number of firms in Mining, Mining Support and Heavy Engineering that employ more than 200 people. In South Australia, there are six Wine Manufacturing firms employing more than 200 staff. And in Queensland there are big employers across Coal Mining, Engineering and Heavy & Civil Engineering Construction.

Large Takeaway Food Services firms are also well represented in NSW, Victoria and Queensland.

The data released yesterday by the Bureau of Statistics also enable researchers to determine the number of businesses across small suburbs and regions, classified by employment. And other tables enable researchers to determine the number of businesses by fine industry level (or industry class). For instance, the data shows there were 166 Deer Farming operations as at June 2013 (with most in Victoria). Or there were 2,762 Health and Fitness Centres in operation across Australia at the same date.

Other data shows the number of businesses classified by turnover which is important in highlighting the concentration of bigger businesses across industries.

The data has myriad uses for businesses, local governments and financial institutions. Especially for the latter – data showing survival rates of businesses is important in highlighting the risk of dealing with certain industries.

Budding business operators and investors can also highlight opportunities by examining entry/exit rates, survival rates and the number of businesses already operating in regions or towns.

The post Where the Big Employers are appeared first on AdviserVoice.

Detailed labour market data

• Industry employment: Employment rose by 50,100 over the three months to February – the biggest quarterly increase in year.
• Employment rose in 12 of the 19 industry sectors. The largest job gains was in Health Care and Social Assistance (up 28,100), followed by Other Services (up 24,300), and Education & Training (up 22,800).
• Low interest rates support housing: The construction sector recorded a gain of 19,700 jobs in the February quarter.

The post Job market winners and losers appeared first on AdviserVoice.

Labour force

• Jobs down: Employment fell by 22,600 in December after a revised 10,500 gain in jobs in November (previously reported as a 21,000 increase in jobs). Full-time jobs fell by 31,600 in December and part-time jobs rose by 9,000.
• In the 2013 calendar year just 54,600 jobs were created, marking the weakest result for a calendar year since 1996. Part time employment lifted by almost 122,100 workers over 2013 compared with 67,500 full-time jobs lost.
• Jobless rate edges higher: The unemployment rate edged up from by less than 0.1 per cent 5.8 per cent in December. (Actually the rise was only from 5.77 per cent to 5.85 per cent). The participation rate eased from 64.8 per cent to 64.6 per cent.
• Hours worked. The number of hours worked was unchanged in December after falling by 0.7 per cent in November. Hours worked are up 0.3 per cent over the year.
• Unemployment across states and territories: NSW 5.8 per cent (5.9 per cent in November); Victoria 6.2 per cent (6.2 per cent); Queensland 5.9 per cent (5.7 per cent); South Australia 6.7 per cent (6.8 per cent); Western Australia 4.7 per cent (4.3 per cent); Tasmania 7.7 per cent (7.7 per cent); Northern Territory 4.2 per cent (4.4 per cent); ACT 4.0 per cent (4.1 per cent).

What does it all mean?

Jobs growth sluggish for 2013.

First and foremost it should be said that the unemployment figures are largely backward looking, highlighting the sluggishness in the broader economy in the lead up to and just after the election last year. More timely figures on consumer and business confidence, retail sales, lending finance and housing activity have been more upbeat suggesting that activity levels have firmed over recent weeks.

There is no doubt that over most of 2013 trading conditions were tough for businesses and as a result employers were not keen to take on additional staff. The pickup in in consumer and business confidence is translating into more activity. The $64 question is how quickly does this turnaround the labour market?

While employers are not out there significantly firing workers they are not adding to the workforce. Rather businesses have been in a holding pattern, awaiting an improvement in conditions and managing staff hours. A broader view of the labour market data shows that businesses are still more inclined to hire part-time workers and contract staff than take on full-time staff. Part time employment lifted by almost 122,100 workers over 2013 compared with 67,500 full-time jobs lost. In fact Full time job losses have occurred in ten out of the 12 months in 2013. The people getting jobs probably prefer full-time work to part-time work, and the loss in income has had an indirect hit on discretionary retail spending.

Interestingly hours worked has lifted by just 0.3 per cent over the past year. Employers may be getting part time jobs but certainly not working the hours they would like

The pickup in consumer and business confidence has started to translate into more activity. And in turn it will take a few more months to translate to improve business profitability and result in a lift in hiring. The latest results are more of a snapshot on how the economy looked 4-5 months ago. Clearly it takes time to take on new staff, from the start of the interviewing process to when the new starters finally commence work. But given the fact that the economy is crawling off a low base while also trying to adjust to the structural imbalances from the pullback in mining investment, it is likely the jobless rate will probably edge towards 6.0 per cent over the next few months.

While the Reserve Bank would be disappointed and concerned with the sluggishness in the labour market, policymakers would have to be pleased at the way the overall economic recovery is panning out. The housing recovery continues to gather momentum, while rising wealth levels is supporting confidence and in turn spending. In addition the lower Australian dollar should provide a boost to exports in coming months and help to alleviate the risks surrounding the rebalancing of the economy. The key area of concern is likely to be how quickly the labour market recovers. As such we expect the Reserve Bank to maintain an easing bias over the next few months, but further rate cuts are unlikely to be required. Cash rates have probably bottomed.

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Labour force; Chinese trade data

• 

  Businesses ‘treading water’ with additional staff.

  Jobs & jobless rate: Employment fell by 10,200 in July after rising by a revised to 9,300 jobs created in June (previously reported as a 10,300 rise in jobs).

• The unemployment rate held steady at 5.7 per cent in July – a four year high. The participation rate fell from 65.3 per cent to 65.1 per cent. Full-time jobs fell by 6,800 in July after falling by 5,100 in June. Part-time jobs fell by 3,400 in July after rising by 14,400 in June.
• In the first seven months of 2013 part time jobs have risen by 77,500 while full time jobs have risen by just 11,000.
• Hours worked at record highs. The number of hours worked rose by 0.5 per cent in July to be up 1.7 per cent over the year to July.
• Unemployment across states and territories: NSW 5.6 per cent (5.4 per cent in June); Victoria 5.7 per cent (5.8 per cent); Queensland 5.9 per cent (6.3 per cent); South Australia 7.1 per cent (6.1 per cent); Western Australia 4.6 per cent (4.6 per cent); Tasmania 8.2 per cent (9.0 per cent); Northern Territory 5.3 per cent (5.2 per cent); ACT 3.6 per cent (3.8 per cent).
• Stronger Chinese trade data. China reported a healthy trade surplus in July. Exports and imports both printed above forecasts.

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Employment rate drops

Jobs & jobless rate: Employment rose by 10,300 in June after falling by a revised 700 jobs in May (previously reported as a 1,100 rise in jobs). Economists had expected a flat result.

The unemployment rate rose from 5.6 per cent to 5.7 per cent in June – a near four year high. The participation rate rose from 65.2 per cent to 65.3 per cent.

Full-time jobs fell by 4,400 after falling by 6,800 in April. Part-time jobs rose by 14,800 in June after rising by 6,100 in May.

In the first six months of 2013 over 104,700 jobs have been created. Part time jobs have risen by 82,700 in first six months of 2013 – marking the biggest lift in a calendar year in 11 years.

The number of hours worked rose by 0.5 per cent in June to be up 1.9 per cent in over the year to June.

Unemployment across states and territories: NSW 5.4 per cent (5.5 per cent in May); Victoria 5.4 per cent (5.4 per cent); Queensland 6.4 per cent (5.9 per cent); South Australia 6.0 per cent (5.9 per cent); Western Australia 4.6 per cent (4.9 per cent); Tasmania 8.9 per cent (7.5 per cent); Northern Territory 5.3 per cent (5.2 per cent); ACT 3.7 per cent (3.9 per cent).

What does it all mean?

Overall though the job market is in good, but probably not great, shape. Jobs continue to be created across the economy, but it is really been driven by part time work. Unemployment rate is ticking higher but still remains well below 6 per cent – a level that it has held below for almost a decade. The last time that the jobless rate remained below 6 per cent for an extended period was in the 1970s.

But while employers are not out there significantly firing workers they are not adding to the workforce. Rather businesses are in a holding pattern, awaiting an improvement in conditions and managing staff hours. The latest figures show that businesses are still more inclined to hire part-time workers and contract staff than take on full-time staff. Part time employment lifted by almost 83,000 workers in the first six months of 2013 – recording the biggest calendar year lift in 11 years. The people getting jobs probably prefer full-time work to part-time work, and the loss in income, has had an indirect hit on discretionary retail spending. Non-food spending rose by just 0.9 per cent over the past year.

In addition the business survey earlier this week clearly highlighted the tough trading environment for businesses. Business conditions are holding at some of the weakest levels in four-years, the forward order book is light and profitability is being squeezed – hardly an environment to entertain serious and significant job creation.The estimate of the unemployment rate probably has a better pulse on the economy. Jobs are being created but not at a pace to see a fall in the unemployment rate.

It is likely that unemployment will rise over the next couple of months. The trend estimates provide the best guide to labour market conditions and they show a modest lift in the jobless rate from 5.6 to 5.7 per cent.The labour market is likely to change towards the latter part of 2013, after the election and as firms get more confident about the outlook for their businesses and about the broader economy. Activity levels across the broader economy are only in the early stages of a recovery, largely driven by the improvement in housing activity.

The Reserve Bank is well placed to cut rates again if it deems it is necessary. The inflation data in late July is the next hurdle. We have pencilled in a rate cut in August. Lack of retail activity, tough trading conditions and underemployment across the economy will ensure an easing bias is maintained.

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What does it all mean?

• The latest data on household wealth certainly provides Aussie households with a bit of cheer and could not come at a better time, especially given the underlying level of conservatism. The global financial crisis caused the biggest ever drop in wealth for Australian households, however wealth levels have continued to repair over past couple of years and are now back at record highs.
• The sustained improvement in wealth levels and low interest rate environment has resulted in household tentatively starting to spend. Just over 22 per cent of total household assets are being held in cash and deposits – well above the decade average of 20.4 per cent, but have eased over the past few quarters. The improvement in household balance sheets certainly bodes well for future spending. And given that a low interest rate environment is likely to be part of the economic landscape over the coming year, it may prompt consumers to invest in other asset classes and spend a little bit more freely.
• It’s not only household wealth levels that have improved but also company balance sheets are certainly looking healthier. Corporate Australia held a record $403.5 billion in cash and deposits as at the end of March and the proportion of total financial assets, companies held in cash is just shy of the highest levels in 22-years.
• The strength in share markets has certainly been the key driver of the turnaround in wealth and more importantly the pickup wealth is expected to continue. CommSec expects an ongoing improvement in wealth over coming quarters. While the rate cuts will support corporate Australia, the key hurdle is the Federal election. Once the election is out of the way it is likely Aussie business will feel more confident to ramp up investment plans.
• Australian superannuation funds are holding almost double the ‘normal’ proportion of money in defensive assets like cash and bank deposits. That is not to say that super funds have not been investing in equity markets rather the equity investments have been less than the cash inflows record by fund managers. The risk for fund managers is being caught with too much money on the sidelines while equity markets track higher. As term deposit rates fall and the global economy strengths pension funds will need to allocate a larger proportion of inflows to growth assets.
• Over the past few years foreign investors have become more prominent investors in our companies. At the end of the March quarter, foreigners owned almost 45 per cent of Australian listed companies, holding just shy of the 20 year highs reached in the June quarter 2012. Not only do foreign investors hold almost half of our listed shares, they also hold over two-thirds of Australian government bonds. The recent volatility in the Australian dollar and the perception of a weaker currency over the coming year is likely result in a modest fall in foreign investment over coming quarters.

What do the figures show?

Financial Accounts:

• Households held a record $767 billion in cash and deposits at the end of March. Cash and deposit holdings represented 22 per cent of assets, above the decade average of 20 per cent.
• Australian non-financial private companies held $403.5 billion in cash and deposits at the end of March. Cash and deposits were 44.6 per cent of financial assets, just shy of the 22-year high of 45.6 per cent recorded in the December quarter 2011 but still well above the long-term average of 38.4 per cent.
• Pension fund (superannuation fund) assets rose by $70.5 billion to $1474.2 billion in the March quarter. Cash and deposits stood at a record 14.5 per cent of financial assets, well above the long-term average of 8.8 per cent.
• The net financial wealth of Australian households (assets less liabilities) rose by $88 billion or 5.2 per cent to $1,768.2 billion – a record high.
• Net financial wealth per capita rose from $73,352 to $75,955 in the March quarter. Per capita wealth is up 22.1 per cent over the past year and up 14.6 per cent over the past three years. Over the past decade per capita wealth is up 103.7 per cent.
• Foreign investors held $628 billion of Australian listed shares as at the end of the March quarter or 44.6 per cent of the total, easing further from the 20 year high of 46.8 per cent reached in the June quarter 2012. Foreign investors held 70.1 per cent of Australian government bonds in the March quarter, easing further from the record 78.9 per cent in the March quarter 2012.

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US Monetary Policy; Population; Employment by industry

• ¾ US Monetary Policy: Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke has signalled a new phase for the US economy. But bond buying (printing cash) won’t end any time soon.
• ¾ Population: Australia’s population grew by 1.75 per cent over the year to December – the fastest rate in three years.
• ¾ Industry employment: Employment rose by just 400 people in the three months to May after gaining 104,900 in the previous three months – the biggest quarterly gain in five years. Strongest sector in the May quarter was Retail trade (up 34,200) while Wholesale trade jobs fell by 32,000.
• ¾ Chinese economy: The ‘flash’ Purchasing Managers index in china for June was at a 9-month low of 48.3, down from 49.2 in May.

What do the figures show?

US Monetary Policy

• The Federal Reserve will continue to purchase debt at the rate of $85 billion a month and leave the official interest rate between zero and 0.25 per cent. But while the Fed chief Ben Bernanke hinted at an end to bond buying, he noted: “If you draw the conclusion that I’ve just said that our purchases will end in the middle of next year, you’ve drawn the wrong conclusion, because our purchases are tied to what happens in the economy.”

Demographic Statistics

Employment to May 2013

• Australia’s population grew by 1.75 per cent over the year to December – the fastest rate in three years. Australia’s population stood at 22,906,352 people at the end of December, but six months later the figure is most likely around 23.1 million.
• A record 305,400 babies were born over 2012, up 2.2 per cent over the year but deaths barely moved over the year to 147,000. Overseas migration totalled 235,900 in the 2012 calendar year, the biggest annual total in three years, but below the record high of 315,700 in the year to December 2008.
• Across the states and territories, fastest annual population growth occurred in Western Australia (3.47 per cent – fastest on record), followed by ACT (2.30 per cent), Queensland (2.05 per cent), Northern Territory (1.79 per cent), Victoria (1.78 per cent), NSW (1.25 per cent), South Australia (0.95 per cent) and Tasmania (0.08 per cent).

Employment by Industry

• Employment rose in 9 of the 19 industry sectors in the three months to May. Employment fell most in Wholesale Trade (down 32,000) after rising by 39,300 in the previous quarter. Next biggest fall was by Construction (down 20,300) followed by Transport, Postal and Warehousing (down 19,800). Biggest gain in
  

  Record Population WA May 2013

  jobs occurred in Retail Trade (up 34,200) followed by Public Administration and Safety (up 14,000) and Arts and Recreation Services (up 13,700).

• Healthcare remains the biggest employer with 1.40 million employees (12.1 per cent of the total) followed by Retail Trade (10.8 per cent) and Construction (8.6 per cent).

What is the importance of the economic data?

• Demographic Statistics are issued by the Bureau of Statistics each quarter. The figures include estimates of births, deaths, in-bound and out-bound migration movements and estimates of population change by State.
• The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) provides detailed labour market figures
  

  Revised population data May 2013

  one week after releasing ‘top level’ statistics of employment & unemployment levels across states and territories. The detailed data is useful in identifying broader underlying trends and instructive about the health of the economy.

What does it all mean?

• Financial markets have over-reacted to the latest Fed decision. Rather than celebrating the fact that the US economy is starting to stand on its own two feet, investors are fretting about the end to cheap cash. The Dow Jones fell 206 points and the Aussie slumped against a stronger greenback to US93 cents.
• This is very much a knee-jerk reaction. The good news outweighs the bad.
  

  Baby boom May 2013

  And all the US economic problems haven’t been solved overnight. We are still tipping the Aussie dollar at US95c at end year and All Ordinaries at 5,200 points.

• Investors are also over-reacting to the Chinese PMI. The so-called ‘flash’ manufacturing gauge doesn’t line up well to the ‘official’ gauge of manufacturing activity. But if the Chinese economy requires stimulus, authorities are well placed to provide it with inflation controlled.
• Provided state and local governments respond to solid population growth then it represents good momentum for economies. That is happening. Businesses are in business because they want to grow and solid population growth assists in that growth.
• The job market is effectively flat-lining until the election is out of the way. The lift in retail jobs is clearly a big surprise.

The post Investor snapshot: US next phase; Population up; Retail leads jobs appeared first on AdviserVoice.

All too often an employer will take an ad hoc approach, taking little time to prepare for the interview. What transpires is often a meandering discussion where most of the core areas are, at best, only touched on and at worst, overlooked entirely.

This is not limited to those who have little interview experience; often the key offenders are those who have extensive experience and that in itself can be their Achilles heel. I recall speaking to a practice manager responsible for recruiting financial planners and when I asked him what preparation he made before each interview, he laughed and said ‘I don’t do any. I’ve been doing this for years and know what to ask’. But when I queried him on a particular interview he conducted with a senior financial planner, he admitted that he had left some of the key criteria for the position out of the interview.

Even employers who exercise caution when making decisions about their business seem to take a more relaxed approach to interviews – and this is not limited to those who work in the same way as our practice manager. Often it is a matter of familiarity with the candidate that lulls the employer in to less formal way of conducting the interview.

Candidate familiarity can be a positive in that you might know the interviewee as a colleague from the industry however often that knowledge doesn’t replace a formal interview where the candidate has to talk about a range of pertinent issues in a formal context.

The key to successful interviewing lies in the preparation for each interview. This not only ensures that you cover off all relevant issues, but gives the candidates a sense that you are treating the interview process seriously. I don’t know how many times I have had positive feedback from candidates who felt that the time spent with a prospective employer was well spent due to thoroughness of the questions asked.

Alternatively, I have had numerous experiences where candidates provided negative feedback on prospective employers who came across as disorganised. Some of these stories are close to comedic where employers have the wrong candidate CV, spend the whole interview reading the CV, or continue dealing with other business matters during the interview.

One financial planner told me that the interviewer was constantly distracted by phone calls and when he wasn’t speaking to someone on the phone, was checking the markets on his computer. The employer was taken aback when the candidate turned down the offer when it was made to her.

Then there are those employers who are so organised that they have compiled a check list of questions that are a mile long that would, under normal circumstances, take hours to get through. Rather than streamline the questions they plough on regardless even if the candidate is less than fully responsive. This cookie cutter approach can spell the death knell for the candidate who makes a hasty retreat from the opportunity, never to be heard of again – and once again the employer is mystified as to what has gone wrong!

The most productive interviews are a positive two way experience. I always advise clients that they should they allow the candidates to ask questions about the role and the business itself. It should also be looked on as an opportunity for the employer to sell the opportunity to the candidate in terms of the scope of the role now and potential career development in to the future.

In part two of this article I will take you through the structure of the interview questionnaire and the types of questions that you should consider using.

www.dawsonpartnership.com.au

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