Zara Lyons

Fidelity International has appointed Zara Lyons as portfolio manager within its Australian equities team.

Zara is based in Sydney and will have responsibility as lead portfolio manager for the Fidelity Australian High Conviction Fund, including the ASX-listed vehicle (FHCO.AX) and associated mandates, with effect from 10 June 2025.

Zara is a highly experienced investment professional with more than 25 years of experience in Australian equities. She joined Fidelity in 2017 as an investment analyst, covering the Australian Healthcare sector and later Australian Financials. Prior to joining Fidelity, Zara worked at CLSA, Nomura and RBS Equities, as a Healthcare analyst, and at JP Morgan Research and ABN AMRO covering other sectors, both in Australia and the UK.    

Zara will take up her portfolio manager responsibilities from Casey McLean, who will leave Fidelity in June 2025 for an external opportunity. 

Paul Taylor, head of investments, Australia, Fidelity International comments: “Zara’s many years of investment experience and strong track record in delivering research-driven results make her the right choice to lead this important solution for our clients. Zara is also a great example of internal talent progression and will play a central role in delivering great client outcomes within our Australian equities product range.

“We thank Casey for his decade of service and wish him all the best for his future endeavours.”

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Paul Taylor

While the impact of rising interest rates and inflation is still to be fully felt in the market, there are still pockets of opportunity for stockpickers within certain sectors, according to portfolio managers at Fidelity International.

Paul Taylor, head of investments at Fidelity International, says Australia will most likely avoid a recession, although it’s not entirely off the table.

“While we think many developed markets will head into recession later this year, our view is that Australia is in a good position to avoid the worst.

“If we do head into a recession, it will be fairly shallow.  Australia is in a stronger position than other developed markets because of our links to better performing Asian countries as well as higher population growth from immigration. Nonetheless, the best-case scenario is that we see a slowdown in Australia.

“Central banks around the world have moved quickly to get on top of inflation and avoid the pervasive inflation experienced during the 1970s. They are now taking a pause to see how economies react and what the next steps will be.

“In Australia, there are indications we are getting close to the peak for both interest rates and inflation. The real test for whether we go into a recession or not, is consumers and how they adjust. Consumer behaviour is lagging behind the interest rate cycle and there is still some pain yet to be felt.

“While there are a number of risks in the market, this also creates a great opportunity to buy the market at a much better risk-adjusted price, which will likely deliver much better longer-term returns,” Mr Taylor says.

Maroun Younes, co-portfolio manager of the Fidelity Global Future Leaders Fund, agrees that a number of sectors stand out.

“The tech sector has been delivering strong earnings and has an optimistic outlook. It is benefiting from ongoing structural growth in areas such as data centres and the cloud, networks and connectivity enablers, software to create productivity or critical information management, artificial intelligence, and content platforms.

“Looking ahead, earnings will be a significant driver of share prices during the next 12 months. The drivers of sustainability of earnings will also be important considerations – for example, pricing power and market structures, as well as the discretionary nature of consumer spending. Businesses that can withstand any softness in the economic environment will also likely be well sought after.

“As the risk of recession or economic slowdown flows through the economy, these considerations will determine valuations, meaning that stock picking will be critical,” Mr Younes said.

Casey McLean, portfolio manager for the Fidelity Australian Opportunities Fund, also sees opportunities in a number of sectors in the Australian market.

“Commodities and building materials – in particular consumption-related commodities – are looking attractive at the moment. Consumption-related commodities are those that are exposed to structural growth elements such as decarbonisation; for example lithium, copper or rare earths, and are not running into a headwind of weak Chinese property demand.

“We also think the insurance sector is one of the beneficiaries of the current inflationary environment as inflation means insurers are able to increase their premiums. We are also experiencing a high level of natural disasters, both in Australia and in markets like the US, which pushes up claims inflation, reinsurance rates and ultimately insurance premiums. Further, a higher interest rate environment means insurers are able to earn good returns on the investment of premiums. Overall, the outlook for their earnings looks pretty strong over the medium term.

“Another area that is somewhat overlooked is small cap equities. They have underperformed over the past two years but as the cycle turns, conditions will be substantially more favourable for them and many will be in a strong position,” Mr McLean says.

Zara Lyons, portfolio manager for Fidelity’s Australian Equities Fund, says that the bank sector is well prepared to weather a downturn, but the market will likely focus on asset quality in upcoming results.

“Since the RBA paused hiking rates in July, market expectations for two 25 basis point increases in the cash rate have eased slightly to one 25 basis point increase, following a weaker monthly inflation figure. This, combined with a slight softening in competitive dynamics across both mortgages and deposits, has led to a share price rally in banks, which have outperformed the broader market over the last few months.

“However, we think this rally may be short lived if the economy deteriorates further from here. The yield curve continues to be inverted implying that the market expects slowing economic growth in the future and potential easing in policy rates,” says Ms Lyons.

Mr Taylor adds that against the macro-economic background, equity markets now present a much more interesting opportunity.

“History teaches us that when significant risks are priced into equity markets, they’re more likely to provide better longer-term investment returns. There’s plenty to worry about, but that also creates better opportunities for the future,” he says.

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Paul Taylor

Market environment

In market parlance, you’d say that the market is climbing the wall of worry. That’s actually quite a positive sign, which might seem unusual.  But when you keep having new risks and issues arise, and the market keeps going up, it’s telling you there’s a lot of money sitting on the sidelines that’s entering on the back of bad news, which is a pretty positive sign.

There has been a lot of risk into the market, whether it’s interest rate risk or inflation risk or geopolitical risk, recession risk, regulation, taxation – there’s definitely a lot more to worry about. And in that environment, it’s a good time to be thinking about an investment. When the risks are already priced in, typically that reflects a better longer term expected return.

Another positive signal is we’re seeing a lot more mergers and acquisitions in the market at the moment. Corporates tend to have a longer term view – they’re not looking at buying a business this year and selling a business next year. If they’re buying now it’s with the intention of holding it indefinitely, so they are seeing the current environment as a good long term entry point.

At the moment, I’ve got three stocks in the portfolio that are currently under takeover bid, which is unusual. Brookfield is leading a consortium that’s bidding for Origin Energy, Wesfarmers is bidding for Silk Laser. And Kirin, a Japanese beer and consumer goods food business that’s made a bid for Blackmores. So it’s quite unusual, but as I said before, it reflects they’re representing great long-term value.

Impact of rising interest rates

Growth in Australia is likely to come down in 2023 and it will be a weaker growth year. We are still of the view that it’s not going to take us into recession in Australia, but that’s certainly not guaranteed.

I think the RBA, in taking up rates another 25 basis points in its latest meeting, is following the data. So inflation has come down and that’s a good trajectory. But it’s still too high and the RBA is trying to work for the long term and get inflation down.

There is still a risk that rates could go up more, and a recession becomes more of a possible option. Our view at the moment is that probably the US and Europe go into a recession, but Australia still stays away from a recession. We’ve got counterpoints: our population is growing quite strongly; we’ve reopened to immigration which has a really positive impact on markets and the economy. Asia is doing much better than the US or Europe. I think our ties to Asia will help us avoid recession.

While inflation is coming down, we still think there’s a couple of reasons rates might remain a little bit higher, for structural reasons.

One is decarbonisation – as we go through the decarbonisation process, that adds costs to the system.

The other is logistics and supply chain, and de-globalisation. There’s a policy now that a lot of companies go by, called China Plus One.  Previously you had your factory in China but now through COVID and through de-globalisation disruptions, companies said, we need another factory somewhere else. So we’ll have China Plus One, maybe we’ll have that factory in Australia or we’ll have that factory in Vietnam, to help with logistics. But it adds costs into the system. It builds redundancy, which is good for guaranteeing supply, but it increases costs. Deglobalisation also has an element of inflation built in as well.

Sector views

Consumer staples is attractive in the current environment.  Everybody needs food and drink, even if there’s inflation.  It’s the same for health.  If you’ve got to go to the hospital, you’ve got to go to the hospital. So people will pay that inflation.

By Paul Taylor, head of investments

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Paul Taylor

High energy costs coupled with better conditions for commodities will help cushion any negative impact on the Australian economy. Immigration and population growth are likely to accelerate, underpinning Australia’s long-term structural growth and providing an additional cushion against recession.

Key points:

• The businesses that tend to do well during inflationary periods are those linked to commodities (both soft and hard), as well as essential firms with pricing power.
• A more challenging environment should provide investors with an opportunity to invest in inexpensive, high-quality businesses with long-term structural growth.
• The strategy adopts a positive engagement approach on environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues, involving discussions with the management teams of companies in which we invest or are considering an investment.

Against the backdrop of inflation, geopolitical tensions and slowing growth, what is the investment outlook for the Australian economy in 2023?

We believe 2023 is shaping up as another fascinating year in equity markets, with inflation and interest rates continuing to dominate the narrative. In the US, the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate rises are strengthening the US dollar, which is having ripple effects worldwide. China’s Zero Covid Policy is constraining growth. Meanwhile, the conflict in Ukraine continues to have wider global implications.

With interest rates expected to keep rising, the likelihood that the US and Europe will enter a recession in early 2023 is increasing. Still, it is less certain whether Australia will follow suit, given high energy costs and favourable conditions for commodities, although future rate rises could do some damage. Immigration and population growth are likely to accelerate in 2023. These are key to underpinning Australia’s long-term structural growth and provide an additional cushion against recession.

What do you think could surprise the market in 2023, either positively or negatively?

Despite the challenging environment, there are reasons for some optimism. China may start to open and official interest rates may not reach predicted levels (even if they do, they are still low by historical standards). However, we are learning to live with Covid. Although inflation is higher than usual, that can work in favour of equity markets if it remains reasonable.

What themes, sectors or regions would offer opportunities and potential risks?

The businesses that tend to do well during inflationary periods are those linked to commodities (both soft and hard), as well as essential businesses that have pricing power. The opposite is true for companies with no pricing power or offering fixed-price contracts. Businesses such as contractors and building companies with fixed-price contracts and rising input costs see their margins significantly squeezed through inflationary periods.

While sectors such as essentials (supermarkets, healthcare), materials, insurance and financials are likely to perform well in 2023, a more challenging environment should provide investors with an opportunity to invest in inexpensive, high-quality businesses with long-term structural growth.

Within your portfolio, what has worked well in 2022, and what will you do differently in 2023?

Stock selection in materials added significant value in 2022. The conviction holding in clean energy-focused miner IGO performed positively, supported by a renewed uptrend in lithium prices. IGO is a pure-play electric vehicle (EV) battery stock and is strategically positioned in supplying the metals required for the clean energy future.

We are taking a barbell strategy to the portfolio. At one end of the barbell is commodities (metals, mining and energy) and includes stocks such as IGO, BHP, Rio Tinto, Iluka and Santos. At the other end of the barbell are companies which sell the essentials and have pricing power (consumer staples, healthcare, insurance and financials) and include stocks such as Coles, Woolworths, Ramsay Healthcare, Suncorp and CBA.

How do you expect sustainability factors to influence returns in 2023, and how is this reflected in your portfolios?

We see sustainability analysis as an essential component of our fundamental analysis. It can add meaningful value over the long term. ESG factors are central to the strategy’s research and investment process. In line with Fidelity’s policies, ESG factors mean we avoid certain stocks.

The Fund adopts a positive engagement approach whereby we discuss ESG issues with the management teams of companies in which we invest or are considering an investment. For example, we have continuous engagements with Santos Limited. Santos sees an opportunity to be a first mover in terms of the energy transition and is moving its business into a net zero emissions energy and fuels business by 2040. We supported management’s climate transition plan via the Say on Climate vote on the basis that the company has a comprehensive set of climate targets bolstered by a credible strategy to decarbonise.

By Paul Taylor, head of investments Australia

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Paul Taylor, Portfolio Manager, Fidelity Australian Equities Fund shares his insights from reporting season.

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Paul Taylor’s Top 5 tips.

In an equities market where bottom-up stock picking is becoming increasingly important, Paul Taylor, Fidelity’s Portfolio Manager of the Australian Equities Fund, which celebrates its tenth anniversary this year, shares his Top Five Tips for investing.

Tip 1: Do your homework.

Think about investing in the stock market the same way that you think about buying a home.

“When people buy a home, they go and look at the home, they do title searches, they look at the area, they look at what prices other houses have sold for in that area. They look at what railways are going to be built or what changes to infrastructure or facilities,” said Mr Taylor. “Investors need to go through the same process when they look at stocks.”

“Read the annual report – it has an incredible amount of information – and go and visit the store if it’s a retail store. Try the product. There are a lot of ways to better understand a company so approach it in exactly the same way that you would approach buying a house.”

Tip 2: Keep an investment journal.

Write down when and why you buy or sell a stock.

“I think this process has helped me a lot,” said Mr Taylor. “Investors should write down when they buy or sell a stock and this helps outline your investment thesis. As you go through time, you can then re-examine that investment thesis and ask yourself – what was the original reason for buying shares in that company? Does that reason still hold? You need to always understand why you own a company or why you don’t.”

Tip 3:  Take a long term approach.

Investing in equities has a time frame of years, not months.

“My third investment tip is that the equity market is about taking a long term approach,” My Taylor explained. “Fundamentals don’t always play out on a three-month, six month or even a twelve month basis but they do on a three-year time frame. So investors need to take that view – they need to think about what company is going to be a great company in three years’ time, five years’ time or even longer. Be patient and take the long term view when equity investing.”

Tip 4: Investors need to attend Annual General Meetings.

Attend the AGMs of those companies you invest in.

“Investors should always actually attend the AGMs of those companies they invest in because it’s an opportunity to talk to the management team and the board about their strategies, and you also have an opportunity to ask questions which is extremely valuable. A lot of information comes out of an AGM so get involved in your investment, get out and talk to the management team and the board.”

Tip 5:  Try not to put yourself in the position of having to sell a share.

“Often when you have to sell a share, it’s usually the worst possible time to sell that share. Try and make sure you have enough cash to take advantage of opportunities but don’t back yourself into a corner,” explained Mr Taylor.

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“We think we’re picking up a lot of good companies that are being negatively cyclically impacted,” said Paul Taylor, head of Australian Equities at Fidelity Worldwide Investment and Manager of the Fidelity Australian Equities Fund.

Mr Taylor said today: “There is some confusion in the market about what is being caused by Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate settings (and resultant high A$) and what is being caused by larger structural shifts.

“Bricks and mortar retailers, for example, are facing structural headwinds that have more to do with changes in consumer preferences, focus on value for money and channels to market and have very little to do with interest rate policy.

“The significant structural headwinds facing large parts of the automotive sector, aluminium smelting, steel and media will be there for a prolonged period regardless of interest rates.”

He said: “Over the long-term there are still very good companies that we think should return to normal profitability levels and we’re picking several up very cheaply and see strong earnings growth over the next three years.

“In contrast, when a company is in structural decline, it is a lot more difficult to work out what is the right price, because how far those structural declines go is very, very difficult to work out, whereas a cyclical decline is much easier to value and work out where and when you think the company becomes good value.”

He noted changes are being prompted by technology, such as online developments and shale gas recovery. There were also major changes underway in the retail, health care, insurance and media sectors.

Mr Taylor manages $2.2 billion in the Fidelity Australian Equities Fund, which has outperformed the S&P/ ASX 200 benchmark by 4.9%, 3.1% and 3.8% net over the one, three and five years respectively to 30 September). The fund has consistently outperformed the benchmark since its inception in 2003 (13.5% return versus the benchmark’s 8.8%).

He suggested that while macro issues, such as global sovereign debt, and politics would drive markets in the short- and medium-term, investors also needed to look at individual company fundamentals.  “How we’ve managed to outperform over the last nine years, I think is from not spending time focusing on the macro, but by being a bottom-up stock selector.

“What you see from the macro is a lot of volatility. The market goes up for a couple of weeks, then it goes down. But if you actually focus on which companies are gaining market share, what their balance sheet looks like, the quality of their management team, their strategy. We think all of those factors are important all the time, but incredibly important in this sort of volatile environment.”

He added: “Just understanding an Australian company doesn’t really get you to where you need. Australia’s a small, open economy. So a lot of the time, with Australian companies, their sales could be offshore, they could have domestic sales, they could have international sales… even if they are domestic-based, their competitors could be international companies. Their suppliers or customers could be international. And these offshore influences can have a great impact on how they perform: you need to understand those factors.”

Overall: “I’m looking for yield and growth. I think in a low-growth world, companies that can deliver good and sustainable yields will be bid up by the markets because that’s obviously very attractive.”

“There are still opportunities for Australian investors to generate income and returns. You’ll still get volatility issues from European sovereign debt issues, US fiscal cliff or China slowing, but at the end of the day, there’s great value, there are strong cash flows, and there are pretty strong balance sheets, which is why we focus on company fundamentals. We think at the end of the day, that’s what’ll drive markets.

“At present, whether a company is a good quality company, low quality company, high growth, low growth; pretty much all companies are trading around very similar ranges. We think there should be differentiation, there should be discernment in the market – and there will be at some stage – and that’s where we see opportunities.

“We think we’re picking up a lot of good companies that are negatively cyclically impacted, but over the long-term are still very good companies and we think they should return to normal profitability levels.”

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Total returns (net) shown are as at 30 September 2012 and are calculated using mid-prices and are net of Fidelity management costs, transactional and operational costs and assume reinvestment of distributions. No allowance has been made for tax or the buy/sell spread. Returns of more than one year are annualised. The return of capital is not guaranteed. Inception date: June 2003. This document is issued by FIL Responsible Entity (Australia) Limited ABN 33 148 059 009, AFSL No. 409340 (“Fidelity Australia”).  Fidelity Australia is a member of the FIL Limited group of companies commonly known as Fidelity Worldwide Investment. Prior to making an investment decision, retail investors should seek advice from their financial advisers. Investors should also obtain and consider the Product Disclosure Statements (“PDS”) for any Fidelity fund mentioned in this document. The PDS can be obtained by contacting Fidelity Australia on 1800 119 270 or by downloading from our website at www.fidelity.com.au. This document may include general commentary on market activity, sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions that should not be taken as investment advice. Information stated herein about specific securities is subject to change. Any reference to specific securities should not be taken as a recommendation to buy, sell or hold these securities. While the information contained in this document has been prepared with reasonable care, no responsibility or liability is accepted for any errors or omissions or misstatements however caused. This document is intended as general information only. The document may not be reproduced or transmitted without prior written permission of Fidelity Australia. The issuer of Fidelity’s managed investment schemes is FIL Responsible Entity (Australia) Limited ABN 33 148 059 009. Reference to ($) are in Australian dollars unless stated otherwise. (c) 2012 FIL Responsible Entity (Australia) Limited.  Fidelity, Fidelity Worldwide Investment and the Fidelity Worldwide Investment logo and F symbol are trademarks of FIL Limited.

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The Taylor Family Scholarship is designed to attract and support outstanding Australian, New Zealand and South African residents or Australian nationals who seek to further their business qualifications, understanding and abilities through a Masters in Finance at this prestigious institution in London, England.

“I wanted to give back to the industry,” said Mr Taylor, who also manages the Fidelity Australian Equities Fund.

“I found my studies at London Business School provided me with a good foundation for a successful career in investment management. I learnt from some of the best academics in the industry and also built some life-long friendships with my classmates from all over the world.”

Paul joined Fidelity in London in 1997 as an Investment Analyst after graduating from the London Business School with a Master of Finance and Bachelors of Commerce and Business from the University of Queensland. Today, the fund Mr Taylor manages – The Fidelity Australian Equities Fund – is rated one of the top Australian equities funds by rating agencies.

The Masters in Finance at the London Business School was recently rated the top course of its kind by the Financial Times newspaper for the second year in a row.

Peter Johnson, Senior Admissions Manager, Masters in Finance, London Business School, said “we thank Paul for his generous contribution to London Business School and his support of up-and-coming Australian finance professionals, who are set to learn from world-class academics and practitioners, and share their experiences with a truly global peer group.

“We’re delighted that Paul has gained so much from his time at London Business School and are grateful for his ongoing support.”

The scholarship will be available from the 2013-14 academic year and be awarded annually, providing the winner with a 20,000 GBP sterling scholarship. The recipient will be determined by the school on broad-based criteria including academic excellence, leadership qualities and contributions to the community.

For more details of the scholarship, click here.

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Equity Fund Manager of the Year as voted by The Asset magazine’s Triple A Investment Awards 2012 – was awarded to Paul Taylor, Fidelity’s head of Australian Equities and Portfolio Manager of the Fidelity Australian Equities Fund.

The region-wide honour was bestowed, in part, for consistently achieving above-benchmark performance. Mr Taylor has managed the fund since its inception in June 2003 and generated a 12% return net of fees since its inception, annualised outperformance of 3.7% against the S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index benchmark.

Mr Taylor said “I’m proud to have been able to build a quality team of people and a quality investment process that helps provide for people’s retirement needs – and this is what is being reflected in this accolade.”

Fidelity was also awarded Best Asset Management Company in Australia for the third year in a row.

The Asia-wide magazine said the award recognised Fidelity’s lead in servicing the investing needs of institutional and corporate clients and consistently achieving above-benchmark performance.

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“The impact of today’s global uncertainties on the Australian economy, stockmarket and investors this financial year can be separated into those associated with a crisis of confidence and those associated with ongoing debt deleveraging,” says Paul Taylor, Head of Australian Equities at Fidelity Worldwide Investment.

“The impacts from a crisis of confidence in Europe will primarily be focused on eurozone and global debt markets. This could potentially impact Australian corporates with higher debt levels as well as Australian banks seeking wholesale funding. Currently Australian corporates have very low debt levels and Australian banks have been reducing their dependence on wholesale funding due to the very strong growth in domestic term deposits.

“The damage from a crisis of confidence would likely be fleeting. If anything, it might create a short-term buying opportunity for local investors in the Australian market,” says Mr Taylor, who is also Portfolio Manager of the Fidelity Australian Equities Fund.

“In contrast, ongoing global debt reduction will slow global economic growth for a sustained period.

“But a lower growth world is not necessarily bad for markets or investors,” says Mr Taylor. “There are still ways for Australian investors to generate income and returns.

“The Australian market has one of the highest dividends yields in the world and some of the best growth prospects.

“Australian dividend yields are high and sustainable and even if world markets do not go anywhere in 2012-13 investors can receive close to a 6% fully franked yield from the local Australian market.

“With the cash rate heading down, this yield will look more and more attractive to investors. Companies that can deliver a high and sustainable dividend yield, or companies that have growth in a low growth world, or both, will be bid up by the market. They are the ones we want to own.

“At present, whether a company is a good quality company, low quality company, high growth, low growth; pretty much all companies are trading around very similar ranges. We think there should be differentiation, there should be discernment in the market – and there will be at some stage – and that’s where we see opportunities.”

Mr Taylor also notes “I also think there is also some confusion in the market about what is being caused by Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate settings and what is being caused by larger structural shifts in markets and economies. Bricks and mortar retailers are facing structural headwinds that have more to do with consumer preference changes, focus on value for money and channel to market and very little to do with interest rate policy.

“Interest rate settings will not change the longer term structural themes playing out in the economy. The significant structural headwinds facing large parts of the automotive sector, aluminium smelting, steel, media and bricks and mortar retailers will be there for a prolonged period regardless of interest rates.”

2 July 2012

This document is issued by FIL Responsible Entity (Australia) Limited ABN 33 148 059 009, AFSL No. 409340 (“Fidelity Australia”).  Fidelity Australia is a member of the FIL Limited group of companies commonly known as Fidelity Worldwide Investment. This document is intended for use by advisers and wholesale investors. Retail investors should not rely on any information in this document without first seeking advice from their financial adviser. This document has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.  You should consider these matters before acting on the information.  You also should consider the Product Disclosure Statements (“PDS”) for respective Fidelity products before making a decision whether to acquire or hold the product.  The relevant PDS can be obtained by contacting Fidelity Australia on 1800 119 270 or by downloading from our website at www.fidelity.com.au. The issuer of Fidelity’s managed investment schemes is FIL Responsible Entity (Australia) Limited ABN 33 148 059 009. Details about Fidelity Australia’s provision of financial services to retail clients are set out in our Financial Services Guide, a copy of which can be downloaded from our website at www.fidelity.com.au. © 2012 FIL Responsible Entity (Australia) Limited. Fidelity, Fidelity Worldwide Investment and the Fidelity Worldwide Investment logo and F symbol are trademarks of FIL Limited.

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