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        <title>AdviserVoiceThreadneedle Investments Archives - AdviserVoice</title>
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                <title>Threadneedle Investments boosts US equities team by four</title>
                <link>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2014/06/threadneedle-investments-boosts-us-equities-team-four/</link>
                <comments>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2014/06/threadneedle-investments-boosts-us-equities-team-four/#respond</comments>
                <pubDate>Thu, 19 Jun 2014 21:45:19 +0000</pubDate>
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                		<category><![CDATA[From the Source]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Amit Kumar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[appointment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ashish Kochar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Benedikt Blomberg]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Neil Robson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nicolas Janvier]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Threadneedle Investments]]></category>
                <guid isPermaLink="false">https://adviservoice.com.au/?p=30712</guid>
                                    <description><![CDATA[<h3 id="pastingspan1"><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">Threadneedle Investments (Threadneedle), a leading international asset manager with close to US$17bn AUM in US equities¹, has announced four appointments to its US Equities team. Benedikt Blomberg, Nicolas Janvier and Amit Kumar join Threadneedle as Analysts, reporting to Head of US Equities Diane Sobin.</span></h3>
<p id="pastingspan1">Benedikt, Nicolas and Amit are senior research analysts; each with more than 10 years of experience in asset management. They join Stéphane Jeannin and Brad Colton as Analysts on the team, significantly enhancing the depth and experience of Threadneedle’s US equities capability.</p>
<p>With the addition of the new Analysts the US Equities team now has full coverage across all sectors. Benedikt and Nicolas join from Columbia Management, which along with Threadneedle, comprise the global asset management business of Ameriprise Financial. Nicolas Janvier will maintain his analytical duties and responsibilities with Columbia Management’s New York-based value team. Amit Kumar joins from Artham Capital Partners.</p>
<p id="pastingspan1">In addition, Richard Adams, who was previously an analytics manager in the Reporting and Information Services team at Threadneedle, joins the US Equities team as Client Portfolio Manager. The appointments follow that of US Fund Manager Nadia Grant earlier this year, joining existing fund managers Neil Robson and Ashish Kochar, and bringing Threadneedle’s US Equities team to a total of ten.</p>
<p id="pastingspan1">Mark Burgess, Chief Investment Officer at Threadneedle said: “I am very pleased about the swift progress we have made in enhancing our London-based US Equities team, while at the same time increasing our collaboration with Columbia Management’s US Equities team. This brings our clients the benefit of a fully resourced team that leverages the significant capabilities, intellectual capital and strength of both organisations. I am confident that with their significant expertise in this asset class, our US Equities team will continue to deliver for our clients globally.”</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>¹ as at end of March 2014</p>
]]></description>
                                            <content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3 id="pastingspan1"><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">Threadneedle Investments (Threadneedle), a leading international asset manager with close to US$17bn AUM in US equities¹, has announced four appointments to its US Equities team. Benedikt Blomberg, Nicolas Janvier and Amit Kumar join Threadneedle as Analysts, reporting to Head of US Equities Diane Sobin.</span></h3>
<p id="pastingspan1">Benedikt, Nicolas and Amit are senior research analysts; each with more than 10 years of experience in asset management. They join Stéphane Jeannin and Brad Colton as Analysts on the team, significantly enhancing the depth and experience of Threadneedle’s US equities capability.</p>
<p>With the addition of the new Analysts the US Equities team now has full coverage across all sectors. Benedikt and Nicolas join from Columbia Management, which along with Threadneedle, comprise the global asset management business of Ameriprise Financial. Nicolas Janvier will maintain his analytical duties and responsibilities with Columbia Management’s New York-based value team. Amit Kumar joins from Artham Capital Partners.</p>
<p id="pastingspan1">In addition, Richard Adams, who was previously an analytics manager in the Reporting and Information Services team at Threadneedle, joins the US Equities team as Client Portfolio Manager. The appointments follow that of US Fund Manager Nadia Grant earlier this year, joining existing fund managers Neil Robson and Ashish Kochar, and bringing Threadneedle’s US Equities team to a total of ten.</p>
<p id="pastingspan1">Mark Burgess, Chief Investment Officer at Threadneedle said: “I am very pleased about the swift progress we have made in enhancing our London-based US Equities team, while at the same time increasing our collaboration with Columbia Management’s US Equities team. This brings our clients the benefit of a fully resourced team that leverages the significant capabilities, intellectual capital and strength of both organisations. I am confident that with their significant expertise in this asset class, our US Equities team will continue to deliver for our clients globally.”</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>¹ as at end of March 2014</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2014/06/threadneedle-investments-boosts-us-equities-team-four/">Threadneedle Investments boosts US equities team by four</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au">AdviserVoice</a>.</p>
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                <title>Threadneedle Investments asset allocation update: April 2014</title>
                <link>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2014/04/threadneedle-investments-asset-allocation-update-april-2014/</link>
                <comments>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2014/04/threadneedle-investments-asset-allocation-update-april-2014/#respond</comments>
                <pubDate>Wed, 09 Apr 2014 21:50:56 +0000</pubDate>
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                		<category><![CDATA[Asian Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Japan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mark Burgess]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Threadneedle Investments]]></category>
                <guid isPermaLink="false">https://adviservoice.com.au/?p=29271</guid>
                                    <description><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_27391" style="width: 260px" class="wp-caption alignright"><img decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-27391" class="size-full wp-image-27391 " alt="Mark Burgess" src="https://adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Burgess-Mark-250.gif" width="250" height="180" /><p id="caption-attachment-27391" class="wp-caption-text">Mark Burgess</p></div>
<h3><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">In this latest outlook, Mark Burgess, Chief Investment Officer at Threadneedle Investments, assesses market activity so far this year and provides an asset allocation update.</span></h3>
<ul>
<li>Threadneedle halves overweight in equities</li>
<li>Increases underweight in Asian equities on China concerns</li>
<li>Increases overweight in Japan</li>
</ul>
<p id="pastingspan1">In our last asset allocation update, we framed the outlook for 2014 in the context of how bond markets deal with policy normalisation; what happens to emerging markets as a result; and whether corporate profits will meet expectations?</p>
<p>The first quarter has been a testing time for markets as they have grappled with the above, overlaid with an escalation in geopolitical risk, and ongoing concerns regarding the burgeoning Chinese credit bubble. Markets took serious fright in January and February, but risk appetite has returned and investor sentiment improved. In equities, with the exception of Japan, developed markets are now flat on the year, having been considerably weaker, whilst in emerging markets the picture is more mixed, albeit with a very significant rally in the last week. In fixed income, core yields are now rising again although at much lower levels than the beginning of the year, and are comfortably off the lows. Credit grinds ever tighter (can we still call it high yield at a 4 % yield?), and emerging market debt like its equity counterpart, has rallied strongly in the recent period.</p>
<p>When we consider the macro economic backdrop, the developed world is still on an improving trend, albeit at a slightly slower pace than we had expected at the beginning of the year. The Fed remains committed to an orderly ending of QE and expectations are now for short rates to start rising in H1 2015. It is difficult to know the impact of policy normalisation on the economy but it will be a headwind and debt remains stubbornly high. In Europe, deflation is rearing its ugly head and with a similar debt concern the ECB must surely be considering more imaginative policy options than hitherto. We would consider any new measures to be acting from a position of weakness. Arguably, given weak economic activity, a profoundly fragile periphery, and stubbornly low inflation, any new measures should have already been introduced. In Japan, Abenomics appears to have stalled, and the currency has stopped depreciating. Nervous of the impact of the consumption tax, the Nikkei has fallen sharply relative to other developed markets, in contrast to last year.</p>
<p>Perhaps the biggest conundrum is China. Over the last few years there has been an explosion of credit, facilitated by the shadow banking system. Retail investors have been enticed into an array of savings products promising heady returns where the underlying investments are often opaque. It is clear that the authorities are now concerned about this and investors are surely going to see an increasing number of these funds go bust. Looking back through history at economies that experienced a similar growth in credit, it is difficult to find one that ended well. At best we are likely to see a material reduction in China’s growth rate, however it could be much worse. Clearly the prolonged underperformance in Chinese equities has discounted some of this, and valuations are low relative to other markets. However the unwinding of the Chinese credit bubble could severely test the Chinese financial system, and unnerve investors further.</p>
<p>Consequently we have decided to halve our overweight in equities and move to a neutral position in cash. Equity valuations remain attractive, but they are less compelling than they were. We increased our underweight to Asian equities on the China concerns and increase our overweight to Japan on the belief that the impact of the consumption tax will be lower than feared. Although we remain overweight equities, it would be fair to say we are less optimistic than we have been for some time. Within fixed income, core yields are going to grind higher, and there is much less value in credit given how far spreads have tightened. Only emerging markets look like they offer any real value. But given the China issue and geopolitical and macro risks, we are wary of increasing our weighting at present. If there is good news, it is that the environment is likely to throw up opportunities for stock pickers which we aim to continue to exploit.</p>
]]></description>
                                            <content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_27391" style="width: 260px" class="wp-caption alignright"><img decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-27391" class="size-full wp-image-27391 " alt="Mark Burgess" src="https://adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Burgess-Mark-250.gif" width="250" height="180" /><p id="caption-attachment-27391" class="wp-caption-text">Mark Burgess</p></div>
<h3><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">In this latest outlook, Mark Burgess, Chief Investment Officer at Threadneedle Investments, assesses market activity so far this year and provides an asset allocation update.</span></h3>
<ul>
<li>Threadneedle halves overweight in equities</li>
<li>Increases underweight in Asian equities on China concerns</li>
<li>Increases overweight in Japan</li>
</ul>
<p id="pastingspan1">In our last asset allocation update, we framed the outlook for 2014 in the context of how bond markets deal with policy normalisation; what happens to emerging markets as a result; and whether corporate profits will meet expectations?</p>
<p>The first quarter has been a testing time for markets as they have grappled with the above, overlaid with an escalation in geopolitical risk, and ongoing concerns regarding the burgeoning Chinese credit bubble. Markets took serious fright in January and February, but risk appetite has returned and investor sentiment improved. In equities, with the exception of Japan, developed markets are now flat on the year, having been considerably weaker, whilst in emerging markets the picture is more mixed, albeit with a very significant rally in the last week. In fixed income, core yields are now rising again although at much lower levels than the beginning of the year, and are comfortably off the lows. Credit grinds ever tighter (can we still call it high yield at a 4 % yield?), and emerging market debt like its equity counterpart, has rallied strongly in the recent period.</p>
<p>When we consider the macro economic backdrop, the developed world is still on an improving trend, albeit at a slightly slower pace than we had expected at the beginning of the year. The Fed remains committed to an orderly ending of QE and expectations are now for short rates to start rising in H1 2015. It is difficult to know the impact of policy normalisation on the economy but it will be a headwind and debt remains stubbornly high. In Europe, deflation is rearing its ugly head and with a similar debt concern the ECB must surely be considering more imaginative policy options than hitherto. We would consider any new measures to be acting from a position of weakness. Arguably, given weak economic activity, a profoundly fragile periphery, and stubbornly low inflation, any new measures should have already been introduced. In Japan, Abenomics appears to have stalled, and the currency has stopped depreciating. Nervous of the impact of the consumption tax, the Nikkei has fallen sharply relative to other developed markets, in contrast to last year.</p>
<p>Perhaps the biggest conundrum is China. Over the last few years there has been an explosion of credit, facilitated by the shadow banking system. Retail investors have been enticed into an array of savings products promising heady returns where the underlying investments are often opaque. It is clear that the authorities are now concerned about this and investors are surely going to see an increasing number of these funds go bust. Looking back through history at economies that experienced a similar growth in credit, it is difficult to find one that ended well. At best we are likely to see a material reduction in China’s growth rate, however it could be much worse. Clearly the prolonged underperformance in Chinese equities has discounted some of this, and valuations are low relative to other markets. However the unwinding of the Chinese credit bubble could severely test the Chinese financial system, and unnerve investors further.</p>
<p>Consequently we have decided to halve our overweight in equities and move to a neutral position in cash. Equity valuations remain attractive, but they are less compelling than they were. We increased our underweight to Asian equities on the China concerns and increase our overweight to Japan on the belief that the impact of the consumption tax will be lower than feared. Although we remain overweight equities, it would be fair to say we are less optimistic than we have been for some time. Within fixed income, core yields are going to grind higher, and there is much less value in credit given how far spreads have tightened. Only emerging markets look like they offer any real value. But given the China issue and geopolitical and macro risks, we are wary of increasing our weighting at present. If there is good news, it is that the environment is likely to throw up opportunities for stock pickers which we aim to continue to exploit.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2014/04/threadneedle-investments-asset-allocation-update-april-2014/">Threadneedle Investments asset allocation update: April 2014</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au">AdviserVoice</a>.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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                    <item>
                <title>Asian markets focus on geopolitical concerns</title>
                <link>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2014/03/asian-markets-focus-geopolitical-concerns/</link>
                <comments>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2014/03/asian-markets-focus-geopolitical-concerns/#respond</comments>
                <pubDate>Thu, 20 Mar 2014 20:40:20 +0000</pubDate>
                <dc:creator>
                                    </dc:creator>
                		<category><![CDATA[Economic Update]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Clifford Lau]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Threadneedle Investments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ukraine]]></category>
                <guid isPermaLink="false">https://adviservoice.com.au/?p=28844</guid>
                                    <description><![CDATA[<h3>The Ukraine-Russia crisis recently moved to the forefront of investors’ thoughts as Moscow mobilized its military power to influence developments in the autonomous Crimean peninsula.</h3>
<p>Russia’s incursions into the Ukraine have been condemned around the world, have caused a steep sell-off of the Russian rouble and equities and have hurt financial markets in other central and Eastern European markets. However, any measures taken to isolate Russia from the global community will affect European countries more than the US given the former region’s closer economic ties with Russia, and especially given that Europe is only just emerging from recession. Russia has at least taken a step back from the brink by pulling some of its troops back to base and saying that it will only use the military as a last resort. Markets reacted positively but this story has definitely not gone away.</p>
<h2>Ukraine’s economic problems remain a concern</h2>
<p>While markets believe that the turmoil in Ukraine is unlikely to have broad-based implications for emerging markets (EM), any default in the EM world would prompt negative headlines. Certainly, the confrontation between Ukraine and Russia has distracted investors from a potential EU/IMF rescue deal for Ukraine, where there is a pressing need to address the US$13bn of debts (including obligations from the state-owned gas company Naftogaz), which are due to be repaid this year. Asian markets are not ignoring the possibility that the situation in the Ukraine will deteriorate.</p>
<div>
<p>Investors were quick to seek default protection, which resulted in a strengthening in Asian credit default swaps, or CDS, (i.e. the cost of buying protection against default rose). In China, the official PMI for February once again weakened, reinforcing the view that the slowdown in China will dominate 2014. Also in China, the government has successfully orchestrated two-way volatility in renminbi (RMB) trading. It has weakened the currency through its daily fixing mechanism, triggering a fall of more than 1% in both CNY (RMB traded onshore) and CNH (RMB traded onshore) over the past few weeks. This move is widely interpreted as a government warning to currency speculators following huge investment and trade flows backing the apparently one-way bet for the RMB to appreciate.</p>
<p>Despite the unsettling macro headlines, Asian fixed income markets have proven resilient recently. The hard currency J.P. Morgan Asia Credit Index returned 0.57% during the week ended 28 February (when the Ukrainian crisis broke) with Indonesian US$ bonds outperforming. The sudden return of investment flows to the once-troubled Indonesian market was reportedly due to EM funds seeking refuge from emerging Europe amid the Ukraine crisis. Similar performances were also seen in the local currency market where the Indonesian local currency bond market was the best performer in the week ending 28 February, returning 1.53% (this includes one percentage point of IDR appreciation). Overall, the local currency Citi Asian Government Bond Investable Index gained 0.61% during that week, and ended the month of February with an impressive 2.9% total positive return.</p>
<p><em>Figure 1: J.P. Morgan Asia Credit index (JACI) blended spread vs. US 5-year yield</em></p>
</div>
<div> <img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="alignleft size-full wp-image-28845" alt="Thread1-1" src="https://adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Thread1-1.jpg" width="580" height="352" srcset="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Thread1-1.jpg 580w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Thread1-1-300x182.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 580px) 100vw, 580px" /></div>
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<div>Source; Datastream,Threadneedle end February 2014</div>
<h2></h2>
<h2>Crowded calendar of political events ahead in 2014</h2>
<p>Other notable newsflow came from Thailand where more negative headlines were generated by the rice purchasing scheme scandal. The continuing investigation by the anti-corruption body could lead to the Prime Minister being removed from office, while domestic violence continues to affect Bangkok. In addition, the 2014 presidential election in Indonesia has come to life with the incumbent Democratic Party conducting its presidential-nominating convention to boost the popularity of potential candidates such as Dahlan Iskan, the minister of state-owned enterprises. The reformist and current Jakarta governor Joko Widodo of the PDIP is likely to be the front runner if he is put forward as the party’s official contestant. Finally, politics has returned to the centre stage in India where 11 small political parties have joined forces (the up-and-coming, newly-formed AAP, however, is absent) to form a third-front to wrest power from the popular-opposition BJP and the underdog-governing Congress party.</p>
<h2>Asia to see a correction?</h2>
<p>Lately, the market has faced many “on-the-brink-of” situations. Ukraine appeared on the brink of civil war and Russia’s aggressive intervention in Crimea, and the uncertainty surrounding the Ukraine’s economic and financial position means it is still close to disaster. Meanwhile, the opaqueness of Chinese government policies towards interest rates and currencies means investors are close to resetting their consensus views (especially in terms of the currency) and perhaps resizing their investment allocations to China. Given the challenges facing Europe, China and the US, Asian fixed income markets are likely to experience some form of correction following the robust performance seen in February. We will monitor developments closely and use our active approach to exploit any opportunities created by further volatility.</p>
<p><em>Commentary by Clifford Lau, Head of Fixed Income, Asia Pacific</em></p>
]]></description>
                                            <content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3>The Ukraine-Russia crisis recently moved to the forefront of investors’ thoughts as Moscow mobilized its military power to influence developments in the autonomous Crimean peninsula.</h3>
<p>Russia’s incursions into the Ukraine have been condemned around the world, have caused a steep sell-off of the Russian rouble and equities and have hurt financial markets in other central and Eastern European markets. However, any measures taken to isolate Russia from the global community will affect European countries more than the US given the former region’s closer economic ties with Russia, and especially given that Europe is only just emerging from recession. Russia has at least taken a step back from the brink by pulling some of its troops back to base and saying that it will only use the military as a last resort. Markets reacted positively but this story has definitely not gone away.</p>
<h2>Ukraine’s economic problems remain a concern</h2>
<p>While markets believe that the turmoil in Ukraine is unlikely to have broad-based implications for emerging markets (EM), any default in the EM world would prompt negative headlines. Certainly, the confrontation between Ukraine and Russia has distracted investors from a potential EU/IMF rescue deal for Ukraine, where there is a pressing need to address the US$13bn of debts (including obligations from the state-owned gas company Naftogaz), which are due to be repaid this year. Asian markets are not ignoring the possibility that the situation in the Ukraine will deteriorate.</p>
<div>
<p>Investors were quick to seek default protection, which resulted in a strengthening in Asian credit default swaps, or CDS, (i.e. the cost of buying protection against default rose). In China, the official PMI for February once again weakened, reinforcing the view that the slowdown in China will dominate 2014. Also in China, the government has successfully orchestrated two-way volatility in renminbi (RMB) trading. It has weakened the currency through its daily fixing mechanism, triggering a fall of more than 1% in both CNY (RMB traded onshore) and CNH (RMB traded onshore) over the past few weeks. This move is widely interpreted as a government warning to currency speculators following huge investment and trade flows backing the apparently one-way bet for the RMB to appreciate.</p>
<p>Despite the unsettling macro headlines, Asian fixed income markets have proven resilient recently. The hard currency J.P. Morgan Asia Credit Index returned 0.57% during the week ended 28 February (when the Ukrainian crisis broke) with Indonesian US$ bonds outperforming. The sudden return of investment flows to the once-troubled Indonesian market was reportedly due to EM funds seeking refuge from emerging Europe amid the Ukraine crisis. Similar performances were also seen in the local currency market where the Indonesian local currency bond market was the best performer in the week ending 28 February, returning 1.53% (this includes one percentage point of IDR appreciation). Overall, the local currency Citi Asian Government Bond Investable Index gained 0.61% during that week, and ended the month of February with an impressive 2.9% total positive return.</p>
<p><em>Figure 1: J.P. Morgan Asia Credit index (JACI) blended spread vs. US 5-year yield</em></p>
</div>
<div> <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignleft size-full wp-image-28845" alt="Thread1-1" src="https://adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Thread1-1.jpg" width="580" height="352" srcset="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Thread1-1.jpg 580w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Thread1-1-300x182.jpg 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 580px) 100vw, 580px" /></div>
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<div>Source; Datastream,Threadneedle end February 2014</div>
<h2></h2>
<h2>Crowded calendar of political events ahead in 2014</h2>
<p>Other notable newsflow came from Thailand where more negative headlines were generated by the rice purchasing scheme scandal. The continuing investigation by the anti-corruption body could lead to the Prime Minister being removed from office, while domestic violence continues to affect Bangkok. In addition, the 2014 presidential election in Indonesia has come to life with the incumbent Democratic Party conducting its presidential-nominating convention to boost the popularity of potential candidates such as Dahlan Iskan, the minister of state-owned enterprises. The reformist and current Jakarta governor Joko Widodo of the PDIP is likely to be the front runner if he is put forward as the party’s official contestant. Finally, politics has returned to the centre stage in India where 11 small political parties have joined forces (the up-and-coming, newly-formed AAP, however, is absent) to form a third-front to wrest power from the popular-opposition BJP and the underdog-governing Congress party.</p>
<h2>Asia to see a correction?</h2>
<p>Lately, the market has faced many “on-the-brink-of” situations. Ukraine appeared on the brink of civil war and Russia’s aggressive intervention in Crimea, and the uncertainty surrounding the Ukraine’s economic and financial position means it is still close to disaster. Meanwhile, the opaqueness of Chinese government policies towards interest rates and currencies means investors are close to resetting their consensus views (especially in terms of the currency) and perhaps resizing their investment allocations to China. Given the challenges facing Europe, China and the US, Asian fixed income markets are likely to experience some form of correction following the robust performance seen in February. We will monitor developments closely and use our active approach to exploit any opportunities created by further volatility.</p>
<p><em>Commentary by Clifford Lau, Head of Fixed Income, Asia Pacific</em></p>
<p>The post <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2014/03/asian-markets-focus-geopolitical-concerns/">Asian markets focus on geopolitical concerns</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au">AdviserVoice</a>.</p>
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                <title>Investing for equity income stands the test of time</title>
                <link>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2014/03/investing-equity-income-stands-test-time/</link>
                <comments>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2014/03/investing-equity-income-stands-test-time/#respond</comments>
                <pubDate>Tue, 18 Mar 2014 20:55:36 +0000</pubDate>
                <dc:creator>
                                    </dc:creator>
                		<category><![CDATA[Investment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Certitude Global Investments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[equity income]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[REITs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stephen Thornber]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Threadneedle Investments]]></category>
                <guid isPermaLink="false">https://adviservoice.com.au/?p=28819</guid>
                                    <description><![CDATA[<h3>Income strategies continue to perform in all market conditions</h3>
<div id="attachment_28821" style="width: 260px" class="wp-caption alignleft"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-28821" class="size-full wp-image-28821" alt="Craig Mowll" src="https://adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Mowll-Craig-250.jpg" width="250" height="180" /><p id="caption-attachment-28821" class="wp-caption-text">Craig Mowll</p></div>
<p>Equity income strategies may have performed well in the last few years, but as quantitative easing is wound back and growth accelerates, can yield stocks really continue to deliver?</p>
<p>Absolutely, says Stephen Thornber, Fund Manager, Global Equity Income at Threadneedle Investments, who explained why investing for income can add performance over time, regardless of wider macroeconomic or stock market conditions.</p>
<p>“We believe there are fundamental reasons why high dividend companies outperform over the long term. Dividends demonstrate a commitment to creating shareholder value, promote long-term decision making, and reduce the risk that management makes poor investments.”</p>
<p>“Successful income investing is about identifying businesses that are paying high and growing dividends while sustaining a robust financial position. In a rising interest rate environment the importance of focusing on dynamic growing companies cannot be understated,” Mr Thornber explained.</p>
<p>“There is a misconception that performance of dividend stocks is closely linked to interest rates. In fact the majority of dividend stocks are priced by the market on a ‘total expected return’ basis against other stocks with similar prospects.”</p>
<p>“The exception to this is stocks we call ‘bond proxies’, typically companies that offer little or no growth, but a reliable income stream”. Regulated utilities or REIT’s would be good examples. These stocks are interest rate sensitive, and challenged by rising rates.”</p>
<p>Given the strong performance of the past few years, there is concern that equities may now be overvalued, and that investors should exercise caution.</p>
<p>Mr Thornber said that in his view equities remain attractive given valuations are at or below long term averages, and earnings are set to accelerate as a global recovery takes hold.</p>
<p>“High-dividend paying companies are trading at a discount to the broader market in every major market” he explained. “We are taking particular care when selecting companies in the US, where valuations are higher, but having said that, we feel the strong prospects for the US economy support higher valuations,” he said.</p>
<p>Mr Thornber continued by saying that dividend investing remains a sound investment approach for a number of reasons.</p>
<p>“For a start, current dividend payout levels are set to rise because corporates are in good health. In stark contrast to governments, corporates have done a good job of repairing their balance sheets in recent years. Cash generation is good, and because there is still reluctance to commit to large-scale capital expenditure, companies are using their cash in shareholder-friendly ways, such as dividend increases, special dividends and share buybacks,” he said.</p>
<p>In conclusion, Mr Thornber said that a global approach to equity income investing provided investors with a wider opportunity set.</p>
<p>“By adopting a global approach, investors gain access to economies which may be growing more quickly than their domestic economy.</p>
<p>“When managing portfolios, we aim to tilt the portfolio towards the fastest-growing industries and economies, spreading risk and increase total returns for our investors,” he said.</p>
<p>Threadneedle’s partner in Australia, Certitude Global Investments, reaffirmed that an equity income strategy is a particularly apt solution for local investors looking for international diversification.</p>
<p>CEO of Certitude, Craig Mowll said: “Australia represents only a small fraction of all investment opportunities, and local investors have recognised the need to diversify offshore. However, volatility in global markets is a concern for many Australian investors who want to preserve capital ahead of their retirement years. An equity income solution is therefore well-suited for investors who are looking to capture growth opportunities beyond our shores but still benefit from income that these dividend paying stocks provide.”</p>
]]></description>
                                            <content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3>Income strategies continue to perform in all market conditions</h3>
<div id="attachment_28821" style="width: 260px" class="wp-caption alignleft"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-28821" class="size-full wp-image-28821" alt="Craig Mowll" src="https://adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Mowll-Craig-250.jpg" width="250" height="180" /><p id="caption-attachment-28821" class="wp-caption-text">Craig Mowll</p></div>
<p>Equity income strategies may have performed well in the last few years, but as quantitative easing is wound back and growth accelerates, can yield stocks really continue to deliver?</p>
<p>Absolutely, says Stephen Thornber, Fund Manager, Global Equity Income at Threadneedle Investments, who explained why investing for income can add performance over time, regardless of wider macroeconomic or stock market conditions.</p>
<p>“We believe there are fundamental reasons why high dividend companies outperform over the long term. Dividends demonstrate a commitment to creating shareholder value, promote long-term decision making, and reduce the risk that management makes poor investments.”</p>
<p>“Successful income investing is about identifying businesses that are paying high and growing dividends while sustaining a robust financial position. In a rising interest rate environment the importance of focusing on dynamic growing companies cannot be understated,” Mr Thornber explained.</p>
<p>“There is a misconception that performance of dividend stocks is closely linked to interest rates. In fact the majority of dividend stocks are priced by the market on a ‘total expected return’ basis against other stocks with similar prospects.”</p>
<p>“The exception to this is stocks we call ‘bond proxies’, typically companies that offer little or no growth, but a reliable income stream”. Regulated utilities or REIT’s would be good examples. These stocks are interest rate sensitive, and challenged by rising rates.”</p>
<p>Given the strong performance of the past few years, there is concern that equities may now be overvalued, and that investors should exercise caution.</p>
<p>Mr Thornber said that in his view equities remain attractive given valuations are at or below long term averages, and earnings are set to accelerate as a global recovery takes hold.</p>
<p>“High-dividend paying companies are trading at a discount to the broader market in every major market” he explained. “We are taking particular care when selecting companies in the US, where valuations are higher, but having said that, we feel the strong prospects for the US economy support higher valuations,” he said.</p>
<p>Mr Thornber continued by saying that dividend investing remains a sound investment approach for a number of reasons.</p>
<p>“For a start, current dividend payout levels are set to rise because corporates are in good health. In stark contrast to governments, corporates have done a good job of repairing their balance sheets in recent years. Cash generation is good, and because there is still reluctance to commit to large-scale capital expenditure, companies are using their cash in shareholder-friendly ways, such as dividend increases, special dividends and share buybacks,” he said.</p>
<p>In conclusion, Mr Thornber said that a global approach to equity income investing provided investors with a wider opportunity set.</p>
<p>“By adopting a global approach, investors gain access to economies which may be growing more quickly than their domestic economy.</p>
<p>“When managing portfolios, we aim to tilt the portfolio towards the fastest-growing industries and economies, spreading risk and increase total returns for our investors,” he said.</p>
<p>Threadneedle’s partner in Australia, Certitude Global Investments, reaffirmed that an equity income strategy is a particularly apt solution for local investors looking for international diversification.</p>
<p>CEO of Certitude, Craig Mowll said: “Australia represents only a small fraction of all investment opportunities, and local investors have recognised the need to diversify offshore. However, volatility in global markets is a concern for many Australian investors who want to preserve capital ahead of their retirement years. An equity income solution is therefore well-suited for investors who are looking to capture growth opportunities beyond our shores but still benefit from income that these dividend paying stocks provide.”</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2014/03/investing-equity-income-stands-test-time/">Investing for equity income stands the test of time</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au">AdviserVoice</a>.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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                <slash:comments>0</slash:comments>                            </item>
                    <item>
                <title>Does debt matter? The diverging tales of the eurozone and the emerging markets</title>
                <link>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2014/03/debt-matter-diverging-tales-eurozone-emerging-markets/</link>
                <comments>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2014/03/debt-matter-diverging-tales-eurozone-emerging-markets/#respond</comments>
                <pubDate>Thu, 13 Mar 2014 20:40:20 +0000</pubDate>
                <dc:creator>
                                    </dc:creator>
                		<category><![CDATA[Economic Update]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bond markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[emerging market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eurozone economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jim Cielinski]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Threadneedle Investments]]></category>
                <guid isPermaLink="false">https://adviservoice.com.au/?p=28736</guid>
                                    <description><![CDATA[<div>
<h3>Bond markets are full of surprises. Core government bonds have been one of the strongest performing asset classes in 2014, propelled in part by worrying signs of emerging market stress.</h3>
<p>Emerging market (EM) debt has suffered relentlessly for nearly a year, scant reward for those emerging economies that spent most of the last decade bolstering their finances. Meanwhile, in the eurozone, Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy and Ireland are among the world&#8217;s most indebted countries, and yet their bond markets have witnessed one of the most explosive rallies in history. Is this fair, and what explains this dichotomy?</p>
</div>
<div>
<p><em> Figure 1: Peripheral bond spreads vs. EMD bond spreads</em></p>
<p><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignleft size-full wp-image-28739" alt="Thread-Figure1" src="https://adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Thread-Figure1.jpg" width="580" height="378" srcset="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Thread-Figure1.jpg 580w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Thread-Figure1-300x196.jpg 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 580px) 100vw, 580px" /><em>Source: Bloomberg, February 2014. EM denotes the spread on the JPM EMBI Global Index. All the periphery plots show the spread between the periphery country’s 10-year yield and the 10-year Bund.</em></p>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<p>In reality, the stock of debt is a poor indicator of the level of interest rates, sovereign default risk, or the near-term likelihood of a debt crisis. More important is the type of debt (external vs. internal) and factors affecting the ability of a country to refinance. If we are to assess whether EM debt is a crisis-in-the-making, or whether the eurozone periphery is overvalued, we must first ask: how much debt is too much debt?</p>
</div>
<p style="text-align: left;" align="center"><em>Figure 2: Debt-to-GDP ratios versus bond yields</em><b><br />
</b></p>
<p style="text-align: left;" align="center"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignleft size-full wp-image-28738" alt="Thread-Figure2" src="https://adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Thread-Figure2.jpg" width="580" height="369" srcset="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Thread-Figure2.jpg 580w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Thread-Figure2-300x191.jpg 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 580px) 100vw, 580px" /></p>
<div>
<p><em>Source: Bloomberg. For some countries, debt-to-GDP calculated using 2012 GDP as 2013 data not available at time of writing. For Brazil, the 2023 government bond yield has been used.</em></p>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<p>An elevated level of external or foreign currency debt is the poison that undermines sovereign debt stability. The lesson of emerging markets historically is that excessive foreign-denominated debts grow more ominous in the face of domestic deterioration. As strains grow, the accompanying currency devaluation makes these debts increasingly expensive to service. The combination of domestic weakness and higher debt burdens created a toxic and self-reinforcing downward spiral, ultimately imploding when foreign creditors turned off the lending taps.</p>
</div>
<p>Debt denominated in domestic currency is a different matter. The solution here is easier, as it requires policymakers to simply create more money, buying their own debt if necessary. Default can be averted but often at the expense of currency debasement and other economic side-effects such as inflation.</p>
<p>The toxic external debt dynamic is mostly absent today. We do not see an EM debt crisis unfolding. Economic rebalancing has reduced EM reliance on external debt, domestic conditions are more stable, and in many cases reserves have ballooned.</p>
<div>
<p><em> Figure 3: Aggregate amount of internal vs. external debt for EMs </em></p>
</div>
<p style="text-align: left;" align="center"><b><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignleft size-full wp-image-28737" alt="Thread-Figure3" src="https://adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Thread-Figure3.jpg" width="580" height="290" srcset="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Thread-Figure3.jpg 580w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Thread-Figure3-300x150.jpg 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 580px) 100vw, 580px" /></b><em>Source: Threadneedle, January 2014. Based on countries which are present in both the JPM GBI EM (local currency debt) and JPM EMBI Global (external credit) indices and then comparing the dollar equivalent outstanding/face value debt amount.</em></p>
</div>
<div>
<p>This is not to say the recent EM sell-off is unfounded. Idiosyncratic risks are extreme in some regions such as Argentina, Venezuela and Ukraine. In others, such as the BRICs, rapid credit growth and misallocation of capital have fostered broken economic models that are now in desperate need of structural reform. There is more work to do, but the likely release valve in this cycle should be weaker currencies rather than crisis and default. Much of this adjustment is already behind us.</p>
<p>The eurozone is an entirely different matter. The region in aggregate does not have a serious debt problem, but individual countries most definitely do. In a robust monetary union, this would have been easily overcome via reflationary policies. Central banks can address liquidity problems through reflationary policies, which allow countries such as Italy and Spain to go on refinancing their enormous debt loads. The ECB was always going to struggle with Greece and Cyprus; even central banks cannot rectify true insolvency. But the ECB&#8217;s mistake was that it nearly allowed liquidity problems to morph into a solvency crisis. Nearly all eurozone debt is denominated in domestic currency – euros. By exposing deep fissures within the EMU, policymakers allowed the market to price peripheral debt as external debt. Speculation of a eurozone break-up and debt restructuring were evidence of the lack of faith in the monetary union.</p>
<p>In July 2012, Mario Draghi made his famous proclamation that the ECB would do ‘whatever it takes’ to preserve the euro. The ECB followed up with its programme of Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT). Draghi later labelled this, rather immodestly, as one of the greatest monetary policy tools ever crafted. He was right. In one fell swoop, the ECB managed to switch trillions of debt from being perceived as ‘external’ debt to ‘domestic’ debt. And with that change, default premiums in the eurozone debt rightfully plummeted. Rapid improvement in the balance of payments, less draconian austerity measures, and lower debt costs have since contributed to a now self-reinforcing cycle of improvement.</p>
<p>Eurozone economic sentiment is now on the mend. GDP will likely creep higher this year on the heels of broad-based but modest improvement in the weaker countries. The irony is that this modest recovery is perceived by markets as the ‘all-clear’ sign that eurozone debt problems are rapidly receding. A brighter growth outlook is certainly encouraging, but growth is not the key driver of investment returns in debt deleveraging events. Rather, it is typically the last piece of the jigsaw to fall into place. Modestly positive growth will make little or no difference to the debt sustainability of the indebted eurozone countries. Most of these look considerably worse than a majority of emerging market economies on most debt metrics, and this is not going to change.</p>
<p>It is difficult to identify tipping points in debt accumulation, but two critical factors portending crisis are the <em>level of external debt</em> and the <em>actions of policymakers</em>. European sovereign debt has performed phenomenally well precisely because it addressed both issues simultaneously. The ECB replaced policy ineptitude with policy magic by reassuring markets that eurozone debt was local debt. As long as there is no reason to doubt the sanctity of the eurozone going forward, the dreadful debt metrics of its weaker constituents will remain dormant concerns. The rally in peripheral debt has been justified. Sadly, that rally is almost over. Misplaced confidence fuelled by a better growth outlook may allow for an overshoot, but there is no hope for an immediate sustainable debt solution and spreads now offer little excess compensation.</p>
<p>Whereas euro countries snatched victory from the jaws of defeat, emerging economies have accomplished the opposite feat. Growth and strengthening finances have given way to excessive credit growth and a desperate need for structural reform. Aggregate debt levels, however, remain largely under control. Manageable debt levels should preclude a widespread crisis, allowing weaker currencies to bear the brunt of adjustment. Buying opportunities will abound in the coming year, but it may be necessary to dodge the occasional policy-induced catastrophe along the way.</p>
<p><em>Commentary from Jim Cielinski, Head of Fixed Income, Threadneedle Investments</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
]]></description>
                                            <content:encoded><![CDATA[<div>
<h3>Bond markets are full of surprises. Core government bonds have been one of the strongest performing asset classes in 2014, propelled in part by worrying signs of emerging market stress.</h3>
<p>Emerging market (EM) debt has suffered relentlessly for nearly a year, scant reward for those emerging economies that spent most of the last decade bolstering their finances. Meanwhile, in the eurozone, Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy and Ireland are among the world&#8217;s most indebted countries, and yet their bond markets have witnessed one of the most explosive rallies in history. Is this fair, and what explains this dichotomy?</p>
</div>
<div>
<p><em> Figure 1: Peripheral bond spreads vs. EMD bond spreads</em></p>
<p><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignleft size-full wp-image-28739" alt="Thread-Figure1" src="https://adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Thread-Figure1.jpg" width="580" height="378" srcset="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Thread-Figure1.jpg 580w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Thread-Figure1-300x196.jpg 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 580px) 100vw, 580px" /><em>Source: Bloomberg, February 2014. EM denotes the spread on the JPM EMBI Global Index. All the periphery plots show the spread between the periphery country’s 10-year yield and the 10-year Bund.</em></p>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<p>In reality, the stock of debt is a poor indicator of the level of interest rates, sovereign default risk, or the near-term likelihood of a debt crisis. More important is the type of debt (external vs. internal) and factors affecting the ability of a country to refinance. If we are to assess whether EM debt is a crisis-in-the-making, or whether the eurozone periphery is overvalued, we must first ask: how much debt is too much debt?</p>
</div>
<p style="text-align: left;" align="center"><em>Figure 2: Debt-to-GDP ratios versus bond yields</em><b><br />
</b></p>
<p style="text-align: left;" align="center"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignleft size-full wp-image-28738" alt="Thread-Figure2" src="https://adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Thread-Figure2.jpg" width="580" height="369" srcset="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Thread-Figure2.jpg 580w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Thread-Figure2-300x191.jpg 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 580px) 100vw, 580px" /></p>
<div>
<p><em>Source: Bloomberg. For some countries, debt-to-GDP calculated using 2012 GDP as 2013 data not available at time of writing. For Brazil, the 2023 government bond yield has been used.</em></p>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<p>An elevated level of external or foreign currency debt is the poison that undermines sovereign debt stability. The lesson of emerging markets historically is that excessive foreign-denominated debts grow more ominous in the face of domestic deterioration. As strains grow, the accompanying currency devaluation makes these debts increasingly expensive to service. The combination of domestic weakness and higher debt burdens created a toxic and self-reinforcing downward spiral, ultimately imploding when foreign creditors turned off the lending taps.</p>
</div>
<p>Debt denominated in domestic currency is a different matter. The solution here is easier, as it requires policymakers to simply create more money, buying their own debt if necessary. Default can be averted but often at the expense of currency debasement and other economic side-effects such as inflation.</p>
<p>The toxic external debt dynamic is mostly absent today. We do not see an EM debt crisis unfolding. Economic rebalancing has reduced EM reliance on external debt, domestic conditions are more stable, and in many cases reserves have ballooned.</p>
<div>
<p><em> Figure 3: Aggregate amount of internal vs. external debt for EMs </em></p>
</div>
<p style="text-align: left;" align="center"><b><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignleft size-full wp-image-28737" alt="Thread-Figure3" src="https://adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Thread-Figure3.jpg" width="580" height="290" srcset="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Thread-Figure3.jpg 580w, https://www.adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Thread-Figure3-300x150.jpg 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 580px) 100vw, 580px" /></b><em>Source: Threadneedle, January 2014. Based on countries which are present in both the JPM GBI EM (local currency debt) and JPM EMBI Global (external credit) indices and then comparing the dollar equivalent outstanding/face value debt amount.</em></p>
</div>
<div>
<p>This is not to say the recent EM sell-off is unfounded. Idiosyncratic risks are extreme in some regions such as Argentina, Venezuela and Ukraine. In others, such as the BRICs, rapid credit growth and misallocation of capital have fostered broken economic models that are now in desperate need of structural reform. There is more work to do, but the likely release valve in this cycle should be weaker currencies rather than crisis and default. Much of this adjustment is already behind us.</p>
<p>The eurozone is an entirely different matter. The region in aggregate does not have a serious debt problem, but individual countries most definitely do. In a robust monetary union, this would have been easily overcome via reflationary policies. Central banks can address liquidity problems through reflationary policies, which allow countries such as Italy and Spain to go on refinancing their enormous debt loads. The ECB was always going to struggle with Greece and Cyprus; even central banks cannot rectify true insolvency. But the ECB&#8217;s mistake was that it nearly allowed liquidity problems to morph into a solvency crisis. Nearly all eurozone debt is denominated in domestic currency – euros. By exposing deep fissures within the EMU, policymakers allowed the market to price peripheral debt as external debt. Speculation of a eurozone break-up and debt restructuring were evidence of the lack of faith in the monetary union.</p>
<p>In July 2012, Mario Draghi made his famous proclamation that the ECB would do ‘whatever it takes’ to preserve the euro. The ECB followed up with its programme of Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT). Draghi later labelled this, rather immodestly, as one of the greatest monetary policy tools ever crafted. He was right. In one fell swoop, the ECB managed to switch trillions of debt from being perceived as ‘external’ debt to ‘domestic’ debt. And with that change, default premiums in the eurozone debt rightfully plummeted. Rapid improvement in the balance of payments, less draconian austerity measures, and lower debt costs have since contributed to a now self-reinforcing cycle of improvement.</p>
<p>Eurozone economic sentiment is now on the mend. GDP will likely creep higher this year on the heels of broad-based but modest improvement in the weaker countries. The irony is that this modest recovery is perceived by markets as the ‘all-clear’ sign that eurozone debt problems are rapidly receding. A brighter growth outlook is certainly encouraging, but growth is not the key driver of investment returns in debt deleveraging events. Rather, it is typically the last piece of the jigsaw to fall into place. Modestly positive growth will make little or no difference to the debt sustainability of the indebted eurozone countries. Most of these look considerably worse than a majority of emerging market economies on most debt metrics, and this is not going to change.</p>
<p>It is difficult to identify tipping points in debt accumulation, but two critical factors portending crisis are the <em>level of external debt</em> and the <em>actions of policymakers</em>. European sovereign debt has performed phenomenally well precisely because it addressed both issues simultaneously. The ECB replaced policy ineptitude with policy magic by reassuring markets that eurozone debt was local debt. As long as there is no reason to doubt the sanctity of the eurozone going forward, the dreadful debt metrics of its weaker constituents will remain dormant concerns. The rally in peripheral debt has been justified. Sadly, that rally is almost over. Misplaced confidence fuelled by a better growth outlook may allow for an overshoot, but there is no hope for an immediate sustainable debt solution and spreads now offer little excess compensation.</p>
<p>Whereas euro countries snatched victory from the jaws of defeat, emerging economies have accomplished the opposite feat. Growth and strengthening finances have given way to excessive credit growth and a desperate need for structural reform. Aggregate debt levels, however, remain largely under control. Manageable debt levels should preclude a widespread crisis, allowing weaker currencies to bear the brunt of adjustment. Buying opportunities will abound in the coming year, but it may be necessary to dodge the occasional policy-induced catastrophe along the way.</p>
<p><em>Commentary from Jim Cielinski, Head of Fixed Income, Threadneedle Investments</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<p>The post <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2014/03/debt-matter-diverging-tales-eurozone-emerging-markets/">Does debt matter? The diverging tales of the eurozone and the emerging markets</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au">AdviserVoice</a>.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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                <slash:comments>0</slash:comments>                            </item>
                    <item>
                <title>Comment from Threadneedle Investments on the effect of the Ukraine crisis on global markets</title>
                <link>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2014/03/comment-threadneedle-investments-effect-ukraine-crisis-global-markets/</link>
                <comments>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2014/03/comment-threadneedle-investments-effect-ukraine-crisis-global-markets/#respond</comments>
                <pubDate>Sun, 09 Mar 2014 20:45:03 +0000</pubDate>
                <dc:creator>
                                    </dc:creator>
                		<category><![CDATA[Economic Update]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mark Burgess]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Threadneedle Investments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ukraine]]></category>
                <guid isPermaLink="false">https://adviservoice.com.au/?p=28614</guid>
                                    <description><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_27391" style="width: 260px" class="wp-caption alignleft"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-27391" class="size-full wp-image-27391" alt="Mark Burgess" src="https://adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Burgess-Mark-250.gif" width="250" height="180" /><p id="caption-attachment-27391" class="wp-caption-text">Mark Burgess</p></div>
<h3>Commenting on the effect on global markets from the Ukraine crisis,Threadneedle Investments’ Chief Investment Officer Mark Burgess, said: “To date, the fallout from the Ukrainian crisis has been largely confined to the emerging market debt, emerging market equity and commodity markets.</h3>
<p>At current levels, emerging market local currency debt appears to offer value, although we expect both the hard and local currency markets to remain volatile in the short term.</p>
<p>Emerging equities reflect concerns not only around Russia and Ukraine but also the weaker growth outlook in Brazil and China. In commodities, Russia is a significant oil player, supplying 30% of Europe’s gas, with 50% of that piped through Ukraine. Any move to curb Russian oil exports by the EU could easily drive Brent crude oil into the $140-160 a barrel range. We therefore do not expect major sanctions against the country.</p>
<p>“Elsewhere, investment grade and high yield markets have been unmoved by the crisis in Ukraine. Foreign exchange markets, outside of the obvious areas such as the rouble, have also ignored it. Developed market equity and bond markets have recently been driven by other factors such as the headwinds from a stronger pound for UK equities, the severe weather in the US and the weaker than expected European corporate results.</p>
<p>Finally, core government bond investors have been focused on the softer US macroeconomic data, which has seen 10-year Treasury yields fall. We are monitoring the situation closely, but as it looks today, markets are not expecting further intervention or action by Russia.”</p>
<div></div>
]]></description>
                                            <content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_27391" style="width: 260px" class="wp-caption alignleft"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-27391" class="size-full wp-image-27391" alt="Mark Burgess" src="https://adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Burgess-Mark-250.gif" width="250" height="180" /><p id="caption-attachment-27391" class="wp-caption-text">Mark Burgess</p></div>
<h3>Commenting on the effect on global markets from the Ukraine crisis,Threadneedle Investments’ Chief Investment Officer Mark Burgess, said: “To date, the fallout from the Ukrainian crisis has been largely confined to the emerging market debt, emerging market equity and commodity markets.</h3>
<p>At current levels, emerging market local currency debt appears to offer value, although we expect both the hard and local currency markets to remain volatile in the short term.</p>
<p>Emerging equities reflect concerns not only around Russia and Ukraine but also the weaker growth outlook in Brazil and China. In commodities, Russia is a significant oil player, supplying 30% of Europe’s gas, with 50% of that piped through Ukraine. Any move to curb Russian oil exports by the EU could easily drive Brent crude oil into the $140-160 a barrel range. We therefore do not expect major sanctions against the country.</p>
<p>“Elsewhere, investment grade and high yield markets have been unmoved by the crisis in Ukraine. Foreign exchange markets, outside of the obvious areas such as the rouble, have also ignored it. Developed market equity and bond markets have recently been driven by other factors such as the headwinds from a stronger pound for UK equities, the severe weather in the US and the weaker than expected European corporate results.</p>
<p>Finally, core government bond investors have been focused on the softer US macroeconomic data, which has seen 10-year Treasury yields fall. We are monitoring the situation closely, but as it looks today, markets are not expecting further intervention or action by Russia.”</p>
<div></div>
<p>The post <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2014/03/comment-threadneedle-investments-effect-ukraine-crisis-global-markets/">Comment from Threadneedle Investments on the effect of the Ukraine crisis on global markets</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au">AdviserVoice</a>.</p>
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                <title>Threadneedle Investments raises GDP forecast for developed world and sees opportunities in emerging markets following market correction</title>
                <link>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2014/02/threadneedle-investments-raises-gdp-forecast-developed-world-sees-opportunities-emerging-markets-following-market-correction/</link>
                <comments>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2014/02/threadneedle-investments-raises-gdp-forecast-developed-world-sees-opportunities-emerging-markets-following-market-correction/#respond</comments>
                <pubDate>Thu, 20 Feb 2014 20:45:30 +0000</pubDate>
                <dc:creator>
                                    </dc:creator>
                		<category><![CDATA[Economic Update]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[global economic recovery]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mark Burgess]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Threadneedle Investments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US markets]]></category>
                <guid isPermaLink="false">https://adviservoice.com.au/?p=28307</guid>
                                    <description><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_27391" style="width: 260px" class="wp-caption alignleft"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-27391" class="size-full wp-image-27391" alt="Mark Burgess" src="https://adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Burgess-Mark-250.gif" width="250" height="180" /><p id="caption-attachment-27391" class="wp-caption-text">Mark Burgess</p></div>
<h3>Threadneedle Investments has raised its 2014 GDP forecast for developed economies as a result of the strengthening global economic recovery.</h3>
<p>The company’s US forecast has increased from 2.5% to 2.7% and its UK forecast from 2.25% to 2.5%. The euro area has seen the biggest jump from 0.7% to 1.1%.</p>
<p>Mark Burgess, CIO at Threadneedle Investments, said: “The global economic recovery is gathering pace. It is driven by the developed world and as a result we have raised our economic growth forecasts for the three major economies. The US is increasingly becoming an attractive base for manufacturing, while housing and consumption remain strong. The UK housing market has also strengthened, with notable improvements outside the buoyant London. The unemployment rate has fallen materially and consumption shows increased confidence. In addition, we have increased our euro area forecast, reflecting healthy growth in Germany and a better than previously expected recovery in Spain and Ireland.</p>
<p>“However, the better the developed economies seem to be doing, the more the discrepancy with the emerging markets becomes apparent. Volatility is likely to persist in the short term as emerging markets find increasing challenges to growth.</p>
<p>“Tapering of quantitative easing is leading to capital outflows from the region, putting a strain on currencies, especially in those economies with weak balance of payments. Consequently, we are seeing a number of interest rate rises to defend currencies which, in turn, will hit economic activity. China’s economy is proving slow to reposition away from investment towards consumption. An extended banking sector and fears of cracks in the shadow banking system are additional worries.</p>
<p>“It is important to note, however, that we do not expect these issues to become another contagious crisis. More emerging countries have floating currencies and higher currency reserves than in previous periods of crisis. The rapid currency devaluations and interest rate rises are already leading to the necessary adjustment of cutting consumption. China does not have a freely floating currency but it is not reliant on foreign capital and has some policy flexibility to help in managing its problems.</p>
<p>“We therefore see the current emerging market weakness as a correction, after a strong rally, which could offer an opportunity to add to equity positions. We prefer exporters over domestic consumption stocks. Outside this, our portfolio themes are little changed, searching for strong, growing companies, payers of good and increasing dividends, M&amp;A beneficiaries and companies well-positioned for the global economic recovery.”</p>
]]></description>
                                            <content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_27391" style="width: 260px" class="wp-caption alignleft"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-27391" class="size-full wp-image-27391" alt="Mark Burgess" src="https://adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Burgess-Mark-250.gif" width="250" height="180" /><p id="caption-attachment-27391" class="wp-caption-text">Mark Burgess</p></div>
<h3>Threadneedle Investments has raised its 2014 GDP forecast for developed economies as a result of the strengthening global economic recovery.</h3>
<p>The company’s US forecast has increased from 2.5% to 2.7% and its UK forecast from 2.25% to 2.5%. The euro area has seen the biggest jump from 0.7% to 1.1%.</p>
<p>Mark Burgess, CIO at Threadneedle Investments, said: “The global economic recovery is gathering pace. It is driven by the developed world and as a result we have raised our economic growth forecasts for the three major economies. The US is increasingly becoming an attractive base for manufacturing, while housing and consumption remain strong. The UK housing market has also strengthened, with notable improvements outside the buoyant London. The unemployment rate has fallen materially and consumption shows increased confidence. In addition, we have increased our euro area forecast, reflecting healthy growth in Germany and a better than previously expected recovery in Spain and Ireland.</p>
<p>“However, the better the developed economies seem to be doing, the more the discrepancy with the emerging markets becomes apparent. Volatility is likely to persist in the short term as emerging markets find increasing challenges to growth.</p>
<p>“Tapering of quantitative easing is leading to capital outflows from the region, putting a strain on currencies, especially in those economies with weak balance of payments. Consequently, we are seeing a number of interest rate rises to defend currencies which, in turn, will hit economic activity. China’s economy is proving slow to reposition away from investment towards consumption. An extended banking sector and fears of cracks in the shadow banking system are additional worries.</p>
<p>“It is important to note, however, that we do not expect these issues to become another contagious crisis. More emerging countries have floating currencies and higher currency reserves than in previous periods of crisis. The rapid currency devaluations and interest rate rises are already leading to the necessary adjustment of cutting consumption. China does not have a freely floating currency but it is not reliant on foreign capital and has some policy flexibility to help in managing its problems.</p>
<p>“We therefore see the current emerging market weakness as a correction, after a strong rally, which could offer an opportunity to add to equity positions. We prefer exporters over domestic consumption stocks. Outside this, our portfolio themes are little changed, searching for strong, growing companies, payers of good and increasing dividends, M&amp;A beneficiaries and companies well-positioned for the global economic recovery.”</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2014/02/threadneedle-investments-raises-gdp-forecast-developed-world-sees-opportunities-emerging-markets-following-market-correction/">Threadneedle Investments raises GDP forecast for developed world and sees opportunities in emerging markets following market correction</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au">AdviserVoice</a>.</p>
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                <title>Stop differentiating between European &#8220;periphery&#8221; and &#8220;core&#8221;: the poster children of Eurozone reforms are now delivering the best returns</title>
                <link>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2014/01/stop-differentiating-european-periphery-core-poster-children-eurozone-reforms-now-delivering-best-returns/</link>
                <comments>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2014/01/stop-differentiating-european-periphery-core-poster-children-eurozone-reforms-now-delivering-best-returns/#respond</comments>
                <pubDate>Thu, 30 Jan 2014 20:50:50 +0000</pubDate>
                <dc:creator>
                                    </dc:creator>
                		<category><![CDATA[Investment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dan Ison]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European equities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eurozone economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Threadneedle Investments]]></category>
                <guid isPermaLink="false">https://adviservoice.com.au/?p=27836</guid>
                                    <description><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_27838" style="width: 260px" class="wp-caption alignleft"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-27838" class="size-full wp-image-27838  " alt="The pickup in peripheral economies has contributed to a more positive general sentiment across Europe." src="https://adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/euro1-250.png" width="250" height="180" /><p id="caption-attachment-27838" class="wp-caption-text">Pickup in peripheral economies has contributed to a more positive general sentiment across Europe: Threadneedle</p></div>
<h3 style="text-align: left;" align="center">According to Threadneedle’s European equities manager Dan Ison, the traditional differentiation between the European “core” and the weaker “periphery” economies does not hold up anymore.</h3>
<p style="text-align: left;" align="center">Economies such as Spain and Ireland performed much worse during the global financial crisis, with investment returns generally tallying this trend. However, over the past 24 months, those peripheral economies that have enacted dramatic reforms have started delivering better equity market performance compared to their “core” counterparts such as Germany and France.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;" align="center">Threadneedle’s European equities manager Dan Ison said:  “Last year saw a Phoenix-like resurgence in interest for European equities, with an interesting mix of winners and losers. The equity markets of Greece, Finland and Ireland performed best, while the UK, France and Italy performed worst. Germany, The Netherlands and Spain were somewhere in between. What can we glean from this? Generally speaking, those economies that have enacted the most dramatic economic reforms have delivered better equity market performance. Despite significant external pessimism about Europe’s ability for self-help, it has begun to work.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;" align="center">“The poster children of the Eurozone reforms are certainly Spain and Ireland. Both have exited their troika programmes. Spain can easily finance itself in open markets, and Ireland has recently conducted its first bond sale since the bailout. Unit labour costs, a good proxy for competitiveness, have fallen significantly from their peaks in both countries. Perhaps more importantly, their employment is now growing. Irish GDP saw a clear rebound, with particular strength in building and construction and investment in machinery and equipment.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;" align="center">“In contrast, the economies of France and Italy remain troubled. President Hollande recently conceded that France is overtaxed. Here is a socialist leader effectively calling for tax cuts and a slimming of the (very bloated) state sector. The country’s unit labour costs are flat. Italy remains a curious mix of reasonable economic data coupled with possibly the most baffling political situation in the developed world. The lack of strong government certainly hinders Italy’s ability to reform &#8211; despite being the eighth largest in the world, its economy has not grown in more than a decade.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;" align="center">“The pickup in peripheral economies has contributed to a more positive general sentiment across Europe. In a recent survey, Germans revealed to be more optimistic about the future now than at any time since the mid-1990s. It also leads us to believe that it is not appropriate to talk about European “periphery” vs. “core” anymore when it comes to economic growth and equity returns.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;" align="center">“Economies which instituted the bolder and tougher reforms are now looking towards a significant pick-up in growth compared to 2013. We expect this top-line growth to drive improved earnings in 2014, helping them to catch up with other developed markets. Our earnings forecast stands at 10% for this year.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;" align="center">“All in all, it looks like the European theme for 2014 will be long sangria and panettone, short sauerkraut and champagne.”</p>
]]></description>
                                            <content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_27838" style="width: 260px" class="wp-caption alignleft"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-27838" class="size-full wp-image-27838  " alt="The pickup in peripheral economies has contributed to a more positive general sentiment across Europe." src="https://adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/euro1-250.png" width="250" height="180" /><p id="caption-attachment-27838" class="wp-caption-text">Pickup in peripheral economies has contributed to a more positive general sentiment across Europe: Threadneedle</p></div>
<h3 style="text-align: left;" align="center">According to Threadneedle’s European equities manager Dan Ison, the traditional differentiation between the European “core” and the weaker “periphery” economies does not hold up anymore.</h3>
<p style="text-align: left;" align="center">Economies such as Spain and Ireland performed much worse during the global financial crisis, with investment returns generally tallying this trend. However, over the past 24 months, those peripheral economies that have enacted dramatic reforms have started delivering better equity market performance compared to their “core” counterparts such as Germany and France.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;" align="center">Threadneedle’s European equities manager Dan Ison said:  “Last year saw a Phoenix-like resurgence in interest for European equities, with an interesting mix of winners and losers. The equity markets of Greece, Finland and Ireland performed best, while the UK, France and Italy performed worst. Germany, The Netherlands and Spain were somewhere in between. What can we glean from this? Generally speaking, those economies that have enacted the most dramatic economic reforms have delivered better equity market performance. Despite significant external pessimism about Europe’s ability for self-help, it has begun to work.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;" align="center">“The poster children of the Eurozone reforms are certainly Spain and Ireland. Both have exited their troika programmes. Spain can easily finance itself in open markets, and Ireland has recently conducted its first bond sale since the bailout. Unit labour costs, a good proxy for competitiveness, have fallen significantly from their peaks in both countries. Perhaps more importantly, their employment is now growing. Irish GDP saw a clear rebound, with particular strength in building and construction and investment in machinery and equipment.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;" align="center">“In contrast, the economies of France and Italy remain troubled. President Hollande recently conceded that France is overtaxed. Here is a socialist leader effectively calling for tax cuts and a slimming of the (very bloated) state sector. The country’s unit labour costs are flat. Italy remains a curious mix of reasonable economic data coupled with possibly the most baffling political situation in the developed world. The lack of strong government certainly hinders Italy’s ability to reform &#8211; despite being the eighth largest in the world, its economy has not grown in more than a decade.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;" align="center">“The pickup in peripheral economies has contributed to a more positive general sentiment across Europe. In a recent survey, Germans revealed to be more optimistic about the future now than at any time since the mid-1990s. It also leads us to believe that it is not appropriate to talk about European “periphery” vs. “core” anymore when it comes to economic growth and equity returns.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;" align="center">“Economies which instituted the bolder and tougher reforms are now looking towards a significant pick-up in growth compared to 2013. We expect this top-line growth to drive improved earnings in 2014, helping them to catch up with other developed markets. Our earnings forecast stands at 10% for this year.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;" align="center">“All in all, it looks like the European theme for 2014 will be long sangria and panettone, short sauerkraut and champagne.”</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2014/01/stop-differentiating-european-periphery-core-poster-children-eurozone-reforms-now-delivering-best-returns/">Stop differentiating between European &#8220;periphery&#8221; and &#8220;core&#8221;: the poster children of Eurozone reforms are now delivering the best returns</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au">AdviserVoice</a>.</p>
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                <title>Three Questions for 2014</title>
                <link>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2014/01/three-questions-2014/</link>
                <comments>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2014/01/three-questions-2014/#respond</comments>
                <pubDate>Mon, 20 Jan 2014 20:45:17 +0000</pubDate>
                <dc:creator>
                                    </dc:creator>
                		<category><![CDATA[Investment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[corporate profits]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fed tapering]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mark Burgess]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Threadneedle Investments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US dollar]]></category>
                <guid isPermaLink="false">https://adviservoice.com.au/?p=27625</guid>
                                    <description><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_27391" style="width: 260px" class="wp-caption alignleft"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-27391" class="size-full wp-image-27391" alt="Mark Burgess" src="https://adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Burgess-Mark-250.gif" width="250" height="180" /><p id="caption-attachment-27391" class="wp-caption-text">Mark Burgess</p></div>
<h3 id="pastingspan1">“As we enter the new year, markets are more or less where we left off in December. Investor appetite for risk is up, liquidity is free flowing and credit markets are open for business, certainly from a new issues perspective.</h3>
<p>As investors and commentators consider the year ahead it strikes me there are three issues we need to consider: the growth outlook, what a normalised yield curve means for emerging markets, and whether economic growth can drive corporate profit growth.</p>
<h2 id="pastingspan1"><strong>Is growth going to become embedded in the developed world?</strong></h2>
<p>In both the US and UK, economic growth is gaining momentum. In the US, the impact of last year’s fiscal drag is behind us, growth is building and job creation appears robust. The financial system is working with a strongly capitalised banking system lending to the real economy. One could argue that with QE still very evident we should expect no less (stimulus is running at $75bn per month). Nonetheless the US economy looks well placed for 2014 and beyond. UK growth is also taking hold; again private sector job creation is strong, leading indicators are all signalling significant expansion, and the housing market in the south east is particularly buoyant. On the current trajectory we can legitimately consider the need for an interest rate rise this year, something not currently discounted by markets. In Europe, again leading indicators are turning positive (with the exception of France). Even Spain appears to be finally emerging from years of austerity. Certainly peripheral bond markets have been on fire, with yields falling sharply as tail risks diminish. With a more robust global growth environment, policy measures will continue to normalise and long, and in turn short, rates will rise. Implications of this include rising borrowing costs for over-indebted governments and consumers, and a challenging headwind for fixed income investors. It’s also a scenario that lends itself to a stronger $US.</p>
<h2 id="pastingspan1"><strong>Will tapering, rising bond yields and a stronger US dollar challenge the emerging markets in the way that it did last summer? </strong></h2>
<p>Last year’s car crash in EM debt and equities could be a pre-cursor to a full-blown motorway pile up later this year. Deficit countries more dependent on external financing have remained under pressure since then. Both the equity and debt markets were standout underperformers last year, although equities had a bounce in the second half. The regions’ woes have not been helped by the new Chinese government appearing to want to contain the explosive credit formation facilitated by the shadow banking sector. This has further undermined investor confidence, as has the prospect of a stronger dollar. Nonetheless, if the region can withstand tighter (or at least less loose) US monetary policy, then real value will begin to appear. Bond yields are significantly higher, equity PE ratios are much lower than the developed world and at some stage the region will become attractive. For now though we need to see evidence of stability before considering increasing our exposure.</p>
<h2 id="pastingspan1"><strong>The final question surrounds the prospects for corporate profits.</strong></h2>
<p>Equity markets have clearly performed extraordinarily well over the last few years; the S&amp;P 500 is up by 50%, the Financial Times Actuaries All Share Index up by 33% and the world equity index up by over 40%. Corporate profits have grown, but not nearly as much as markets have risen. So returns have been driven by a re-rating, fuelled by increasing confidence, ongoing central bank stimulus and liquidity provision. For equity markets to progress further we need corporate profit growth to take up the running &#8211; it’s unlikely equities can go much further without that happening. Returning then to our first question, if global growth takes hold there is every reason to believe the backdrop for corporate profit growth will be provided, although we will need to be mindful of the impact of falling unemployment on margins given current elevated levels.</p>
<p id="pastingspan1">There is one final issue to consider. We are nearly six years away from the global financial crisis (although it feels much closer in investors’ memories). Looking at past cycles, history would suggest we are now closer to the next crisis than the last one. Let’s hope that proves not to be the case!”</p>
<p><em>Comment from Mark Burgess, Threadneedle Investments</em></p>
]]></description>
                                            <content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_27391" style="width: 260px" class="wp-caption alignleft"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-27391" class="size-full wp-image-27391" alt="Mark Burgess" src="https://adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Burgess-Mark-250.gif" width="250" height="180" /><p id="caption-attachment-27391" class="wp-caption-text">Mark Burgess</p></div>
<h3 id="pastingspan1">“As we enter the new year, markets are more or less where we left off in December. Investor appetite for risk is up, liquidity is free flowing and credit markets are open for business, certainly from a new issues perspective.</h3>
<p>As investors and commentators consider the year ahead it strikes me there are three issues we need to consider: the growth outlook, what a normalised yield curve means for emerging markets, and whether economic growth can drive corporate profit growth.</p>
<h2 id="pastingspan1"><strong>Is growth going to become embedded in the developed world?</strong></h2>
<p>In both the US and UK, economic growth is gaining momentum. In the US, the impact of last year’s fiscal drag is behind us, growth is building and job creation appears robust. The financial system is working with a strongly capitalised banking system lending to the real economy. One could argue that with QE still very evident we should expect no less (stimulus is running at $75bn per month). Nonetheless the US economy looks well placed for 2014 and beyond. UK growth is also taking hold; again private sector job creation is strong, leading indicators are all signalling significant expansion, and the housing market in the south east is particularly buoyant. On the current trajectory we can legitimately consider the need for an interest rate rise this year, something not currently discounted by markets. In Europe, again leading indicators are turning positive (with the exception of France). Even Spain appears to be finally emerging from years of austerity. Certainly peripheral bond markets have been on fire, with yields falling sharply as tail risks diminish. With a more robust global growth environment, policy measures will continue to normalise and long, and in turn short, rates will rise. Implications of this include rising borrowing costs for over-indebted governments and consumers, and a challenging headwind for fixed income investors. It’s also a scenario that lends itself to a stronger $US.</p>
<h2 id="pastingspan1"><strong>Will tapering, rising bond yields and a stronger US dollar challenge the emerging markets in the way that it did last summer? </strong></h2>
<p>Last year’s car crash in EM debt and equities could be a pre-cursor to a full-blown motorway pile up later this year. Deficit countries more dependent on external financing have remained under pressure since then. Both the equity and debt markets were standout underperformers last year, although equities had a bounce in the second half. The regions’ woes have not been helped by the new Chinese government appearing to want to contain the explosive credit formation facilitated by the shadow banking sector. This has further undermined investor confidence, as has the prospect of a stronger dollar. Nonetheless, if the region can withstand tighter (or at least less loose) US monetary policy, then real value will begin to appear. Bond yields are significantly higher, equity PE ratios are much lower than the developed world and at some stage the region will become attractive. For now though we need to see evidence of stability before considering increasing our exposure.</p>
<h2 id="pastingspan1"><strong>The final question surrounds the prospects for corporate profits.</strong></h2>
<p>Equity markets have clearly performed extraordinarily well over the last few years; the S&amp;P 500 is up by 50%, the Financial Times Actuaries All Share Index up by 33% and the world equity index up by over 40%. Corporate profits have grown, but not nearly as much as markets have risen. So returns have been driven by a re-rating, fuelled by increasing confidence, ongoing central bank stimulus and liquidity provision. For equity markets to progress further we need corporate profit growth to take up the running &#8211; it’s unlikely equities can go much further without that happening. Returning then to our first question, if global growth takes hold there is every reason to believe the backdrop for corporate profit growth will be provided, although we will need to be mindful of the impact of falling unemployment on margins given current elevated levels.</p>
<p id="pastingspan1">There is one final issue to consider. We are nearly six years away from the global financial crisis (although it feels much closer in investors’ memories). Looking at past cycles, history would suggest we are now closer to the next crisis than the last one. Let’s hope that proves not to be the case!”</p>
<p><em>Comment from Mark Burgess, Threadneedle Investments</em></p>
<p>The post <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2014/01/three-questions-2014/">Three Questions for 2014</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au">AdviserVoice</a>.</p>
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                <title>2014 Outlook: Time for financial markets to stand on their own two feet again</title>
                <link>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2013/12/2014-outlook-time-financial-markets-stand-two-feet/</link>
                <comments>https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2013/12/2014-outlook-time-financial-markets-stand-two-feet/#respond</comments>
                <pubDate>Tue, 17 Dec 2013 21:00:29 +0000</pubDate>
                <dc:creator>
                                    </dc:creator>
                		<category><![CDATA[Economic Update]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[equities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fixed income]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mark Burgess]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Threadneedle Investments]]></category>
                <guid isPermaLink="false">https://adviservoice.com.au/?p=27389</guid>
                                    <description><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_27391" style="width: 260px" class="wp-caption alignright"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-27391" class="size-full wp-image-27391 " alt="Mark Burgess" src="https://adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Burgess-Mark-250.gif" width="250" height="180" /><p id="caption-attachment-27391" class="wp-caption-text">Mark Burgess</p></div>
<h3 id="pastingspan1">Looking forward to 2014, Threadneedle Investments believes the year will be characterised by the move towards financial markets standing on their own feet again, as the global policy support that has been providing abundant liquidity to markets starts to be withdrawn.</h3>
<p>This will mark an important change in the drivers of investment returns:</p>
<div id="pastingspan1">
<ul>
<li>Instead of liquidity, corporate earnings will move into the spotlight and drive equity performance</li>
<li>The gap between equity and fixed income valuations will continue to normalise as bond yields rise</li>
<li>In a low growth world, credit will continue to shine among fixed income assets</li>
<li>Emerging markets are a “wildcard” and likely to remain volatile.</li>
</ul>
</div>
<p id="pastingspan1">Mark Burgess, Chief Investment Officer at Threadneedle, commented: “Following many years of liquidity provision from the world’s central banks which supported the performance of ‘risk assets’, 2014 will be about selecting the right investments as the global economic recovery will be put to the test. Financial markets will have to re-engage with reality against a backdrop of significant macro and policy challenges and investors need to be alive to the consequences of this changing environment and subsequent volatility. What happens if QE is withdrawn too quickly? What risks lie ahead if companies don’t deliver earnings growth?”</p>
<h2>Equities</h2>
<p id="pastingspan1">“While we remain bullish on equities overall, regional and sector performance will vary significantly. Investors are increasingly shifting their focus away from market liquidity to company fundamentals following the Fed’s announcement in September that it is preparing to start turning off the QE tap. Companies will have to step up their game and earnings will have to pick up significantly if equities are to sustain or even come close to the rally we have seen in developed markets during 2013.</p>
<p>“US company earnings have been at the forefront, having recovered and surpassed their previous peak. We don’t think this year’s returns of close to 30% will be repeated in 2014, but US equities remain attractive. The banking sector is well capitalised and has started lending again, providing a boost to the economy. While the debt ceiling remains a risk, a combination of low energy and labour costs should support company margins into 2014. We think the best performers will be companies in the technology and consumer discretionary sectors.</p>
<p id="pastingspan1">“In contrast, only half of European companies have beaten earnings expectations so far this year. The region remains beset by relatively poor growth dynamics compared with the rest of the developed world. This year’s stock market recovery could easily herald a false dawn. The banking sector still has a long way to travel to address its capital shortage, although the fundamentals are much improved. While for the first time in three years we believe Europe is likely to return to positive GDP growth in 2014, earnings growth is likely to be steady rather than dramatic. Stock pickers, however, could be handsomely rewarded when concentrating on companies with strong business models, robust finances, experienced managements and ideally dominant market positions.</p>
<p id="pastingspan1">“While the UK economy is still smaller than it was pre-crisis, we have seen some very encouraging data in 2013 and there could be a surprise uptick in GDP growth of around 2% next year. Unemployment has been falling and there is a likelihood that the BoE’s 7% threshold will be reached in late 2014. The problem is that the positive data has not necessarily translated into domestic profits thus far and companies are likely to end the year flat. On the upside, we have seen a pickup in IPO activity and expect the improved economic backdrop to further drive corporate confidence and activity in 2014. We think the best returns are going to come from industrials and the consumer discretionary sector, with consumption (and housing) having driven the economic recovery to date. However, relatively little economic rebalancing has taken place to date, something that has been exacerbated by the success of the ‘Help to Buy’ scheme and raises questions over the sustainability of the recovery.</p>
<p id="pastingspan1">“Japan has embarked on a clear and credible path, and ‘Abenomics’ has been transformative. Low interest rates support credit growth and 80% of companies are set to raise base salaries.<sup>[1]</sup> More challenges lie ahead but we expect further gains in equities and are overweight in financials and beneficiaries of policy action.”</p>
<h2 id="pastingspan1">Fixed income</h2>
<p id="pastingspan1">“2014 will be a year of transition for bonds. The expectation of QE tapering has already led to the end of the bond market rally, although we see no evidence for a rotation out of the asset class as demand from pension funds and banks remains. In <strong>sovereign </strong>markets, we expect yields to move gradually upwards, with the 10-year US Treasury yield at around 3.5% by the end of 2014. While we may not witness a return to the historic norms just yet, the gap between equity and bond yields should slowly start to normalise, so the “risk-on” stance that has worked well for investors during the last few years becomes less glaring in 2014. In fact, corporate <strong>credit </strong>as an asset built for a slow growth environment should perform well next year, having already delivered positive returns in 2013. <strong>High yield</strong> in particular has had a good year and we expect this to continue. Company balance sheets are robust and we see defaults as very unlikely.”</p>
<h2 id="pastingspan1">Emerging markets</h2>
<p>“Emerging markets are a mixed bag and a wildcard in 2014. The announcement of QE tapering has caused significant headwinds in fixed income assets and concerns over currency volatility and current account deficits remain. Equity valuations are attractive, but history shows that rising US Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar can have a negative impact on EM returns. In addition, GDP growth in countries such as Brazil is unlikely to look spectacular compared to the developed world. On the upside, Mexico points to a year of solid growth linked to the US economic recovery and the country’s lower manufacturing cost base compared to China. While the latter has impressed us with the third plenum, stock picking is going to be of particular importance over the next few years. Equally, domestic markets in Latin America and those emerging market companies that are geared to an economic recovery in the developed world should not be dismissed.”</p>
<h2 id="pastingspan1">Commercial property</h2>
<p><strong></strong>‘We expect the UK commercial property market to deliver good returns in 2014, as the economic recovery continues to positively impact upon occupational demand. The main beneficiaries should be the South East, as well as logistics and warehousing markets across the country. Top provincial office markets are also showing some signs of recovery. We believe investors will continue to be attracted to commercial property next year and competition for stock will place upward pressure on capital values.”</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;</p>
<p><sup>[1]</sup> Japanese Ministry of Labour and Welfare survey</p>
]]></description>
                                            <content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_27391" style="width: 260px" class="wp-caption alignright"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-27391" class="size-full wp-image-27391 " alt="Mark Burgess" src="https://adviservoice.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Burgess-Mark-250.gif" width="250" height="180" /><p id="caption-attachment-27391" class="wp-caption-text">Mark Burgess</p></div>
<h3 id="pastingspan1">Looking forward to 2014, Threadneedle Investments believes the year will be characterised by the move towards financial markets standing on their own feet again, as the global policy support that has been providing abundant liquidity to markets starts to be withdrawn.</h3>
<p>This will mark an important change in the drivers of investment returns:</p>
<div id="pastingspan1">
<ul>
<li>Instead of liquidity, corporate earnings will move into the spotlight and drive equity performance</li>
<li>The gap between equity and fixed income valuations will continue to normalise as bond yields rise</li>
<li>In a low growth world, credit will continue to shine among fixed income assets</li>
<li>Emerging markets are a “wildcard” and likely to remain volatile.</li>
</ul>
</div>
<p id="pastingspan1">Mark Burgess, Chief Investment Officer at Threadneedle, commented: “Following many years of liquidity provision from the world’s central banks which supported the performance of ‘risk assets’, 2014 will be about selecting the right investments as the global economic recovery will be put to the test. Financial markets will have to re-engage with reality against a backdrop of significant macro and policy challenges and investors need to be alive to the consequences of this changing environment and subsequent volatility. What happens if QE is withdrawn too quickly? What risks lie ahead if companies don’t deliver earnings growth?”</p>
<h2>Equities</h2>
<p id="pastingspan1">“While we remain bullish on equities overall, regional and sector performance will vary significantly. Investors are increasingly shifting their focus away from market liquidity to company fundamentals following the Fed’s announcement in September that it is preparing to start turning off the QE tap. Companies will have to step up their game and earnings will have to pick up significantly if equities are to sustain or even come close to the rally we have seen in developed markets during 2013.</p>
<p>“US company earnings have been at the forefront, having recovered and surpassed their previous peak. We don’t think this year’s returns of close to 30% will be repeated in 2014, but US equities remain attractive. The banking sector is well capitalised and has started lending again, providing a boost to the economy. While the debt ceiling remains a risk, a combination of low energy and labour costs should support company margins into 2014. We think the best performers will be companies in the technology and consumer discretionary sectors.</p>
<p id="pastingspan1">“In contrast, only half of European companies have beaten earnings expectations so far this year. The region remains beset by relatively poor growth dynamics compared with the rest of the developed world. This year’s stock market recovery could easily herald a false dawn. The banking sector still has a long way to travel to address its capital shortage, although the fundamentals are much improved. While for the first time in three years we believe Europe is likely to return to positive GDP growth in 2014, earnings growth is likely to be steady rather than dramatic. Stock pickers, however, could be handsomely rewarded when concentrating on companies with strong business models, robust finances, experienced managements and ideally dominant market positions.</p>
<p id="pastingspan1">“While the UK economy is still smaller than it was pre-crisis, we have seen some very encouraging data in 2013 and there could be a surprise uptick in GDP growth of around 2% next year. Unemployment has been falling and there is a likelihood that the BoE’s 7% threshold will be reached in late 2014. The problem is that the positive data has not necessarily translated into domestic profits thus far and companies are likely to end the year flat. On the upside, we have seen a pickup in IPO activity and expect the improved economic backdrop to further drive corporate confidence and activity in 2014. We think the best returns are going to come from industrials and the consumer discretionary sector, with consumption (and housing) having driven the economic recovery to date. However, relatively little economic rebalancing has taken place to date, something that has been exacerbated by the success of the ‘Help to Buy’ scheme and raises questions over the sustainability of the recovery.</p>
<p id="pastingspan1">“Japan has embarked on a clear and credible path, and ‘Abenomics’ has been transformative. Low interest rates support credit growth and 80% of companies are set to raise base salaries.<sup>[1]</sup> More challenges lie ahead but we expect further gains in equities and are overweight in financials and beneficiaries of policy action.”</p>
<h2 id="pastingspan1">Fixed income</h2>
<p id="pastingspan1">“2014 will be a year of transition for bonds. The expectation of QE tapering has already led to the end of the bond market rally, although we see no evidence for a rotation out of the asset class as demand from pension funds and banks remains. In <strong>sovereign </strong>markets, we expect yields to move gradually upwards, with the 10-year US Treasury yield at around 3.5% by the end of 2014. While we may not witness a return to the historic norms just yet, the gap between equity and bond yields should slowly start to normalise, so the “risk-on” stance that has worked well for investors during the last few years becomes less glaring in 2014. In fact, corporate <strong>credit </strong>as an asset built for a slow growth environment should perform well next year, having already delivered positive returns in 2013. <strong>High yield</strong> in particular has had a good year and we expect this to continue. Company balance sheets are robust and we see defaults as very unlikely.”</p>
<h2 id="pastingspan1">Emerging markets</h2>
<p>“Emerging markets are a mixed bag and a wildcard in 2014. The announcement of QE tapering has caused significant headwinds in fixed income assets and concerns over currency volatility and current account deficits remain. Equity valuations are attractive, but history shows that rising US Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar can have a negative impact on EM returns. In addition, GDP growth in countries such as Brazil is unlikely to look spectacular compared to the developed world. On the upside, Mexico points to a year of solid growth linked to the US economic recovery and the country’s lower manufacturing cost base compared to China. While the latter has impressed us with the third plenum, stock picking is going to be of particular importance over the next few years. Equally, domestic markets in Latin America and those emerging market companies that are geared to an economic recovery in the developed world should not be dismissed.”</p>
<h2 id="pastingspan1">Commercial property</h2>
<p><strong></strong>‘We expect the UK commercial property market to deliver good returns in 2014, as the economic recovery continues to positively impact upon occupational demand. The main beneficiaries should be the South East, as well as logistics and warehousing markets across the country. Top provincial office markets are also showing some signs of recovery. We believe investors will continue to be attracted to commercial property next year and competition for stock will place upward pressure on capital values.”</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;</p>
<p><sup>[1]</sup> Japanese Ministry of Labour and Welfare survey</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2013/12/2014-outlook-time-financial-markets-stand-two-feet/">2014 Outlook: Time for financial markets to stand on their own two feet again</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.adviservoice.com.au">AdviserVoice</a>.</p>
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