Biggest fall in jobs in 18 months

Labour force

• Employment fell by 10,100 people in February – the biggest decline in 18 months (since August 2009). Economists had tipped job gains of 20,000 (range from -10,000 to +35,000 jobs). The January result was revised sharply lower to show growth of 7,700 people (previously +24,000). Full-time employment rose by 47,600 in February (January jobs were down by 12,300) and part-time jobs fell by 57,700 (January jobs rose by 20,000).
• The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0 per cent. The participation rate fell from a downwardlyrevised 65.8 per cent to 65.7 per cent. The working age population rose by 19,200.
• Average hours worked rose by 1.1 per cent in February after falling by 0.8 per cent in January.
• Across the states and territories unemployment rates in February were: NSW 4.8 per cent (4.9 per cent in January); Victoria 5.0 per cent (5.1 per cent); Queensland 5.6 per cent (5.6 per cent); South Australia 5.8 per cent (5.4 per cent); Western Australia 4.2 per cent (4.6 per cent); Tasmania 5.6 per cent (6.4 per cent); Northern Territory 2.3 per cent (2.4 per cent); ACT 3.5 per cent (3.4 per cent).
• Employment rose most in NSW (up 22,400) followed by South Australia and Northern Territory (up 400). Jobs fell most in Queensland (down 22,100) followed by Western Australia (down 10,600), Tasmania (down 500) and Victoria and the ACT (both down 200).

What does it all mean?

• There are clear signs that the Aussie economy is losing momentum. Jobs are now falling, adding to data showing stagnant retail spending, weak housing market and contracting activity in manufacturing, services and construction sectors. Over the last three months employment has fallen by 2,300 people and this highlights that the recent weakness is not an aberration. In fact employment started to slow before the floods and cyclone hit.
• The rapid fire rate hikes and sluggish consumer activity is starting to show cracks in the labour market data. More and more businesses are telling us that conditions are tougher now than at the height of the global financial crisis and earlier this week the NAB business survey highlighted the weakness in business trading conditions. Profitability is being squeezed, the employment index remains weak and forward orders are being pared back – all a clear sign that businesses are finding times tough.

• The Reserve Bank had warned that the job market would slow, and clearly it got that one right. The central bank has also been anticipating a softening of conditions in the labour market going forward – in line with the weak growth forecasts for the first half of 2011. In fact the Reserve Bank expects the unemployment rate to only slide by 0.5 per cent over the coming two years. No doubt in the longer term an improvement in productivity and a pickup in skilled migration is what is needed to ensure that these forecasts are met. The jobs data gives the Reserve Bank further reason to stay on the interest rate sidelines.
• Not only did employment fall in the latest month but the January result was sharply downgraded. While the good news is that full-time jobs in the month, it is important that the figures are not taken too literally. It is hard to believe that full-time jobs would soar almost 48,000 just as part-time jobs were falling by almost 58,000. The volatility over the last few months means that trend estimates are probably more accurate and these show a slowdown in job creation.
• Again it’s hard to believe that Western Australian jobs would fall at the same time the unemployment rate was easing. Or that unemployment in Tasmania could fall from 6.4 per cent to 5.6 per cent in the space of a month.
• It is important to highlight that the data is backward looking, capturing how the economy was tracking around 4-5 months ago. And even more forward looking indicators like the job ads series suggest that while employment growth will remain a feature it is likely to be a less robust in the near term.
• Overall it is unlikely that the Reserve Bank will be pursuing further interest rate rises anytime soon. While CommSec had expected the next rate hike to take place in May, there is clearly an array of risks to our call. And if activity levels remain subdued over the next couple of months it is possible the anticipated May rate hike could be pushed out by a number of months.

What do the figures show?

Labour force

• Employment fell for the first time in 18 months in February, falling by 10,100 workers. Full-time employment rose by 47,000 after falling by 12,300 in January. Part-time employment fell by 57,800 after rising by 20,000 in January.
• The annual employment growth rate eased from 3.3 per cent to 3.0 per cent.
• The unemployment rate remained steady at 5.0 per cent. The participation rate eased from 65.8 per cent to 65.7 per cent.
• Average hours worked rose by 1.1 per cent in February after falling by 0.8 per cent in January. Over the year average hours worked rose by 2.3 per cent.
• NSW (up 22,400) led the job gains in February, followed by South Australia and Northern Territory (up 400). Jobs fell most in Queensland (down 22,100) followed by Western Australia (down 10,600), Tasmania (down 500) and Victoria and the ACT (both down 200).
• Across the states and territories unemployment rates in February were: NSW 4.8 per cent (4.9 per cent in January); Victoria 5.0 per cent (5.1 per cent); Queensland 5.6 per cent (5.6 per cent); South Australia 5.8 per cent (5.4 per cent); Western Australia 4.2 per cent (4.6 per cent); Tasmania 5.6 per cent (6.4 per cent); Northern Territory 2.3 per cent (2.4 per cent); ACT 3.5 per cent (3.4 per cent).
• The working age population rose by 19,200 in February after lifting by 19,000 in January. The working age population grew by 1.80 per cent over the past year – the smallest gain in 50 months.

What is the importance of the economic data?

• The Labour Force estimates are derived from a monthly survey conducted by the Bureau of Statistics. The population survey is based on a multi-stage area sample of private dwellings (currently about 22,800 houses, flats, etc.) and a sample of non-private dwellings (hotels, motels, etc.). The survey covers about 0.24 per cent of the population of Australia and includes all people over 15 years of age, except defence personnel.
• If more people are employed, then there is greater spending power in the economy. But at the same time companies may adjust the work hours of employees. If employees work less hours, and therefore get paid less, then spending power in the economy is reduced.

What are the implications for interest rates and investors?

• CommSec expects the jobless rate to ease to around 4.5 per cent over the coming year. But if the Federal Government was to provide a much needed boost to labour supply by lifting the migrant intake and easing work visa restrictions, the job market may not need to tighten as much as expected.
• We expect the job market to remain relatively healthy particularly in the second half of the year. However the job market may trend sideways for the next couple of months. Our equity media analysts maintain their hold rating on SEEK Limited
• We are hearing that global fund managers are looking to exit positions in Australia, concerned by our softer economy and uncertainty about proposed taxes on carbon and the resources sector. The high Australian dollar and softening in the job market are yet further reasons for investors to be looking at economies in the upswing phase with the key candidate being the United States. While we are not revising down our sharemarket forecasts, they are under review.