What do Fidelity’s investment professionals think about the current level of market volatility?
Dominic Rossi, Global Chief Investment Officer Equities at Fidelity Worldwide Investment – “At times like these, it can be difficult for investors to know what to do. Markets have reacted badly to the US Federal Reserve Bank’s (Fed) policy statement and European sovereign debt issues continue to rumble on.
“We should expect news over the next few weeks to deteriorate further. As we go into the earnings season shortly, there will be more missed forecasts and guidance
from companies will be uncertain and gloomy.
“For investors, valuations will come in to play at some stage. Yields will be well covered because balance sheets are strong.
“It is clear now that the Fed cannot bail equity markets out any more and any interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) may not have much of an impact
on markets.
“The solution on the fiscal front will be either Greek default or Germany accepting that it has to fund debt restructuring and so reduce the quantity of debt in Greece.
This will be a prototype for other European countries.
“At times like these, investors should remember the strong get stronger. We will see M&A pick up in Europe. There is little capital around and so the threat for
companies from new competition is disappearing. Markets will have to consolidate so that oligopolies or duopolies are created and the remaining companies have strong
cash flow and don’t have to rely on the debt markets.
“This is a carbon copy of what happened in emerging markets 15 years ago. Equity will shrink as well-financed companies grow by acquiring others and buy back their
own equity. In time, this will stabilise equities.”
Amit Lodha, Portfolio Manager Fidelity Global Equities Fund – “I think equity valuations are cheap. A number of stocks can be bought at cheaper valuations than in 2008, but with stronger balance sheets.
“However, the probability of recession in Europe – and the world – continues to rise every day and we see no resolution to the sovereign debt crisis. Without bank
lending, growth will be slower. That risk results in loose monetary policy in the developed world which, in turn, equals higher inflation in emerging markets. That
inflation is a tax on consumption growth and reduces the likelihood of significant monetary easing to drive growth.
“The property sector in China, in particular, continues to make me nervous. Resources companies say they see no slowdown in China. However, land developers have
started to make fewer purchases. The demand today for cement, steel and copper is for sites purchased 6-12 months ago. If no land is being purchased today, that sets
up a pretty negative scenario 6-12 months down the line from now, unless we see some significant easing of restrictions in China.
“Given the transition of power that will take place in China in 2012, I think the Communist Party will focus on controlling inflation rather than going for growth.
This means growth could be slower, hence me being cautious on materials investment, as well as the outlook for economies closely linked to the emerging markets, like
Australia, South Africa, Russia and Germany.
“My preference is to be invested in commodity-related equities that benefit from consumption rather than capex (capital expenditure) spending.
“While rising inflation is a worry, increased gross domestic product (GDP) per capita will drive the emerging economies more towards consumption-driven growth.
Copper, energy and potash fit this bill, while I find aluminium, steel and iron ore less interesting. Gold is now the other side of the financials trade. If the
sovereign debt crisis can be resolved, we will see lower gold prices.
“Unfortunately, I think resolution will come only through printing more money longer term. The end goal is therefore higher inflation longer-term. I remain bullish on
the opportunity this presents today. I think miners are cheap versus bullion prices and my focus is therefore on gold mining companies driving growth in production.
“I also like platinum as a commodity as it offers a link to gold, plus a link to the industrial economy through its use in automobiles.
“All in all, I remain a structural bull of emerging markets as in a growth starved world, longer term, companies that can profit from the growth in these markets
(irrespective of their domicile of listing) will trade at a premium. Emerging market central banks may be tightening now to fend off inflation but they have the
flexibility to cut again to drive growth, if need be, and especially if food inflation eases. They still have unused firepower. In contrast, developed world
central banks are running out of options that won’t just lead to further inflation. As a result, I continue to invest in those equities best placed to benefit from
this.”
Martha Wang, Portfolio Manager Fidelity China Fund – “The latest concern has been over signs of increasing leverage ratios of Chinese property companies which
enhances the likelihood of further fund tightening for property developers. In addition, China coal, oil and gas names also suffered due to fears of a potential
increase in tax on these companies. Despite these spots of negative signals, the outlook for China’s economy is positive given the recent indications of peaking of
the food component in the Chinese CPI data. Moreover, the weakness in manufacturing indicates that China’s policy tightening is taking effect.
“Although China is not insulated from the global slowdown, looking at its growth since the 2007 global financial crisis, the country appears to be in a stronger
position than the rest of the world. The fact that the Chinese government has been tightening aggressively while the rest of the developed markets are still in
doldrums, indicates that the pace of growth in these markets is diverging. Despite the current sequential slowness in manufacturing, China’s output is 50% above the
pre-2008 crisis level.
“The country has shown remarkable resilience during the last crisis provides comfort. Currently, China’s ‘A’ and ‘H’ share markets are very attractive compared
to regional peers and relative to history, trading below their historical average P/E level. Given that China is nearing the end of its tightening cycle we expect the
‘H’ share market to experience a strong rebound when the government starts to loosen its policy.”
Teera Chanpongsang, Portfolio Manager of the Fidelity India Fund – “The sharp fall in US and European equities has put downward pressure on Emerging Asian equities. The sell off was led by industrials, materials, oil and gas sectors that reflects growing investor concerns about an economic recovery in the West.
“Emerging Asian economies are not immune to a softer economic recovery in the West but I believe the region’s strong domestic fundamentals and structural growth
drivers will continue to lead to superior growth. In fact, the prospects of a slower recovery in the West should make Emerging Asian growth rates look even more
attractive to investors.
“In addition, the fall in commodity and oil prices should further ease inflationary pressures, and in particular improve India’s fiscal position due to reduction in
import costs. That said Emerging Asian equities continue to have a high correlation to global markets and might remain volatile in the near term. However, in the long
term we can expect the region’s strong fundamentals and superior growth profile to lead to better returns than developed markets.”