Motorists set to confront higher petrol prices

Weekly petrol price

• Petrol prices: According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average Australian price of petrol fell by 0.2 cents per litre last week to 130.1 cents per litre.
• Regional price spike: The Singapore gasoline price spiked over 6.6 cents a litre higher last week – the second biggest weekly gain in 5½ years.

What does it all mean?

• The petrol price is still 25 cents a litre lower than a year ago, but the days of super-cheap prices look to have ended – at least for now. The Singapore gasoline price rose sharply last week in line with world marker crudes in response to instability in Yemen and a weaker US dollar. Investors are worried that the conflict in Yemen could lead to a disruption of oil supplies in the Middle East. And a weaker greenback tends to improve the purchasing power of buyers in Europe and Asia. Still, the world remains well supplied with oil and that will constrain how high crude prices are likely to rise.
• The Singapore gasoline price rose by over 11 per cent in Australian dollar terms last week, the second biggest weekly lift in prices behind the gain recorded in the week to February 8 this year.
• So far the wholesale petrol price in Australia has only risen by around 2.5 cents a litre. But if the lift in the Singapore gasoline price is sustained, then Australian motorists may need to find an extra $4.50 every time they fill their tanks with petrol.
• Filling up the car with petrol is the single biggest weekly purchase made by most families so the lift in the petrol price bears watching.

What do the figures show?

Petrol price:

• According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average Australian price of petrol fell by 0.2 cents per litre to 130.1 cents per litre in the week to April 19. The metropolitan petrol price fell by 0.1 cents to 129.3 cents per litre and the regional price fell by 0.3 cents to 131.9 cents per litre.
• The national average Australian price of diesel petrol fell by 0.1 cents to 131.1 c/l in the week to April 19. Last week the metropolitan price fell by 0.2 cents to 130.0 c/l, while the regional average price was unchanged at 132.0 c/l.
• Average unleaded petrol prices across states and territories over the past week were: Sydney (up 3.3 cents to 130.1 c/l), Melbourne (down by 4.1 cents to 124.3c/l), Brisbane (down 4.2 cents to 131.5 c/l), Adelaide (up by 11.4 cents to 135.1 c/l), Perth (down by 0.1 cent to 128.9 c/l), Darwin (unchanged at 136.1 c/l), Canberra (down by 0.2 cents to 133.3 c/l) and Hobart (up by 0.1 cent to 136.5 c/l).
• Today, the national average wholesale (terminal gate) unleaded petrol price stands at 120.7 cents a litre, up by 2.3 cents a litre on a week ago to a 22-day high.
• Last week the key Singapore gasoline price rose by US$9.10 or 13.1 per cent to US$78.85 a barrel. Singapore gasoline previously hit a near 6-year low (lowest since March 2009) of US$52.20 a barrel on January 13. In Australian dollar terms the Singapore gasoline price rose by $10.48 a barrel or 11.6 per cent last week to $101.21 a barrel or 63.65 cents a litre. In Australian dollar terms, the Singapore gasoline price has lifted by over A20 cents from the mid-January lows.
• Figures from MotorMouth show that the discounting cycle ended late last week in Sydney. But prices drifted lower in Melbourne and Brisbane. In Adelaide, prices jumped 17 cents a litre higher over April 9-12.
• Weekly figures on petrol prices are compiled by ORIMA Research on behalf of the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP). National average retail prices are calculated as the weighted average of each State/Territory’s metropolitan and non-metropolitan retail petrol prices, with the weights based on the number of registered petrol vehicles in each of these regions. AIP data for retail petrol prices is based on available market data supplied by MotorMouth
• Retailers will be disappointed at the potential for petrol prices to spike higher. The imperative will be to constrain costs and thus selling prices in order to maintain custom of shoppers.
• Lower petrol prices should deliver a weak inflation result on Wednesday. But the risk is that the petrol price will rebound in the June quarter. Clearly investors must stay on top of the petrol price vagaries and therefore the implications for consumer spending, inflation and interest rates.

What is the importance of the economic data?

• Weekly figures on petrol prices are compiled by ORIMA Research on behalf of the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP). National average retail prices are calculated as the weighted average of each State/Territory’s metropolitan and non-metropolitan retail petrol prices, with the weights based on the number of registered petrol vehicles in each of these regions. AIP data for retail petrol prices is based on available market data supplied by MotorMouth

What are the implications for interest rates and investors?

• Retailers will be disappointed at the potential for petrol prices to spike higher. The imperative will be to constrain costs and thus selling prices in order to maintain custom of shoppers.
• Lower petrol prices should deliver a weak inflation result on Wednesday. But the risk is that the petrol price will rebound in the June quarter. Clearly investors must stay on top of the petrol price vagaries and therefore the implications for consumer spending, inflation and interest rates.