Early Christmas present for motorists

Job advertisements; Weekly petrol prices

• Petrol: According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average Australian price of unleaded petrol fell by 1.6 cents per litre to 124.7 cents per litre in the week to December 6.
• In Australian dollar terms the Singapore gasoline price fell by $3.40 a barrel or 4.2 per cent to $77.94 a barrel. In the past month the Singapore gasoline price has fallen by AUD$8.83 or 10.5 per cent.
• Job advertisements: Job advertisements rose by 1.3 per cent in November after lifting by 0.3 per cent in October.
• Newspaper advertisements fell by 4.3 per cent in the month, and the far larger component of internet ads rose by 1.3 per cent. Job ads are up 12.3 per cent on a year ago.

What does it all mean?

• The ongoing lift in job advertisements is certainly positive news for the economy. It is clear that businesses are looking to hire staff, supported by both fiscal and monetary stimulus measures. In addition the slide in petrol prices will support household budgets in the lead up to Christmas.
• Petrol prices continue to slide, and motorists are the key beneficiaries. Ongoing concerns about global growth and a supply glut have kept a cap on global oil prices. In fact, domestic pump prices have fallen for six out of the past nine weeks and are now holding at the lowest levels since early March.
• The OPEC meeting on Friday confirmed the inability of the cartel to set oil production targets. In essence member nations will continue to pump well above demand. As the Iranian Oil Minister highlighted “Effectively, it’s ceiling-less” … “Everyone does whatever they want”.
• It’s no surprise that leading up to this meeting that global oil prices have been under pressure. In fact over the past nine weeks, the Singapore gasoline price has fallen by 16.5 cents a litre in Australian dollar terms, the Australian wholesale price has fallen by just over 9 cents a litre while the pump price has fallen by almost 9 cents a litre. So the indicators all point to the slide in global oil prices continuing to filter through cheaper pump prices in the weeks ahead.
• Interestingly figures from MotorMouth show that petrol prices have been falling for over three weeks in Brisbane. Meanwhile prices hit the high point (peak) on November 29 in Melbourne and Adelaide, and have been falling for a week. Sydney prices have been falling for over two weeks. Only Perth operates on a uniform weekly cycle. The bottom line is that Sydney, Brisbane, and Adelaide motorists are enjoying fuel at cost when discounting shopper-a-dockets are taken into account, while motorists in Melbourne would be better off waiting before filling up the family vehicle.

What do the figures show?

Job Advertisements

• Job advertisements rose by 1.3 per cent in November after lifting by 0.3 per cent in October. Job ads have risen in 16 of the last 18 months. Newspaper advertisements fell by 4.3 per cent in the month, and the far larger component of internet ads rose by 1.3 per cent. Job ads are up 12.3 per cent on a year ago. In trend terms, ads rose by 1.1 per cent in the month, the 25th straight gain, to be up 11.5 per cent over the year.

Petrol prices

• According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average Australian price of unleaded petrol fell by 1.6 cents per litre to 124.7 cents per litre in the week to December 6. The metropolitan petrol price fell by 2.2 cents to 123.0 cents per litre while the regional price fell by 0.6 cents to 128.1 cents per litre.
• The national average Australian price of diesel petrol fell by 0.3 cents to 126.6 cents per litre in the week to December 6. Last week the metropolitan price fell by 0.2 cents to 124.7 c/l, while the regional average price fell by 0.3 cents to 128.2 c/l.
• Average unleaded petrol prices across states and territories over the past week were: Sydney (down 10.4 cents to 118.7 c/l), Melbourne (up 6.1 cents to 126.4 c/l), Brisbane (down 6.9 cents to 120.9 c/l), Adelaide (up 0.7 cents to 124.4 c/l), Perth (up 1.1 cents to 123.9 c/l), Darwin (down by 0.3 cents to 127.7 c/l), Canberra (down 0.1 cents to 128.0 c/l) and Hobart (down by 0.1 cents to 133.8 c/l).
• Today the national average wholesale (terminal gate) unleaded petrol price stands at 110.2 cents per litre, unchanged on a week ago. The terminal gate diesel price stands at 107.9 cents a litre, down 1.6 cents over the week.
• Last week the key Singapore gasoline price fell by US$1.72 or 2.9 per cent to US$57.07 a barrel. In Australian dollar terms the Singapore gasoline price fell by $3.40 a barrel or 4.2 per cent to $77.94 a barrel or 49.02 cents a litre. In the past month the Singapore gasoline price has fallen by A$8.83 a barrel or 10.5 per cent.

What is the importance of the economic data?

• The monthly Job Advertisements release is a leading employment indicator. Employers only seek additional staff if business activity is strong, and more importantly, if they expect that conditions will remain favourable in coming months. It takes around 5-6 months for the new staff to be added to the payrolls. But a fall in job advertisements would have a more immediate impact on monthly employment estimates.
• Weekly figures on petrol prices are compiled by ORIMA Research on behalf of the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP). National average retail prices are calculated as the weighted average of each State/Territory’s metropolitan and non-metropolitan retail petrol prices, with the weights based on the number of registered petrol vehicles in each of these regions. AIP data for retail petrol prices is based on available market data supplied by MotorMouth.

What are the implications for interest rates and investors?

• While investors fret that lower oil prices are negative for stocks in the energy sector, other investors cheer the fact that lower petrol prices boost consumer purchasing power and boost the outlook for retailers and other consumer-focussed companies. More broadly, lower global oil prices serve to boost economic activity.