Tourism: China & Indonesia challenge NZ

Weekly petrol prices; Tourism data

• Tourist arrivals/departures: Arrivals fell by 0.2 per cent in August in seasonally adjusted terms. And departures fell by 0.8 per cent.
• China record: Tourists from China and Hong Kong rose to a record 1,419,900 over the year to August, up 21.3 per cent over the year. Tourists from New Zealand totalled 1,322,900 visitors over the past year, but were up just 2.3 per cent. In outbound tourism, Indonesia is closing the gap with New Zealand as the top destination for Australians.
• Retail petrol: According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average Australian price of unleaded petrol rose by 3.4 cents per litre to 119.9 cents per litre in the week to October 9. However prices fell in five capital cities last week.

What does it all mean?

• Petrol prices are expected to lift modestly in coming weeks. The Singapore gasoline price has lifted just under 6 cents a litre in Australian dollar terms while the national retail price has lifted by around 5 cents a litre. While OPEC oil ministers have indicated that oil production may need to be trimmed to support prices, action is yet to be taken. Filling up the car with petrol is the single biggest purchase most families make a week. Petrol prices may lift modestly but they still remain historically low.
• Both tourist arrivals and departures have dipped over the past two months. But arrivals are still outflanking departures and contributing to economic growth. And China leads the way with a record 1.4 million tourists from Greater China coming to our shores over the past year.

What do the figures show?

Overseas arrivals & departures

• Tourist arrivals fell by 0.2 per cent in August. And departures fell by 0.8 per cent. Arrivals are up 10.8 per cent on the year with departures up 4.5 per cent.
• In August, tourists from Greater China (China and Hong Kong) totalled 119,700 (mainland China 98,200, Hong Kong, 21,500), ahead of New Zealand (109,800). Greater China passed NZ for the first time in September 2015.
• Over the past year a record 1,180,300 tourists came to Australia from China, up 23.1 per cent over the year. Tourists from China and Hong Kong rose to a record 1,419,900 over the past year, up 21.3 per cent over the year. Tourists from New Zealand totalled 1,322,900 visitors over the past year, but were up just 2.3 per cent.
• The most popular tourist destination for Australians remains New Zealand (1,298,800 Aussies visited in the year to August, up 4.0 per cent) from Indonesia (1,217,900, up 9.4 per cent). Fastest growing destinations include Poland (up 45.7 per cent), Japan (up 24.2 per cent), Brazil (up 20.9 per cent) and Chile (up 20.5 per cent).
• Net permanent and long-term arrivals to Australia totalled 266,420 in the year to August, down from 269,040 in the year to July.

Petrol prices

• According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average Australian price of unleaded petrol rose by 3.4 cents per litre to 119.9 cents per litre in the week to October 9. The metropolitan petrol price rose by 2.6 cents to 119.6 cents per litre while the regional price rose by 5.0 cents to 120.5 cents per litre.
• Average unleaded petrol prices across states and territories over the past week were: Sydney (down by 10.7 cents to 116.7 c/l), Melbourne (up 14.8 cents to 126.2 c/l), Brisbane (up 10.3 cents to 121.6 c/l), Adelaide (down by 9.4 cents to 114.8 c/l), Perth (up 0.4 cents to 111.7 c/l), Darwin (down 0.2 cents to 108.8 c/l), Canberra (down by 0.2 cents to 118.5 c/l) and Hobart (down 0.2 cents to 120.6 c/l).
• The national average Australian price of diesel petrol was up by 0.4 cents to 117.9 cents per litre in the week to October 9. The metropolitan price rose by 0.5 cents to 117.5 c/l, while the regional average price was up by 0.5 cents to 118.3 c/l.
• Today the national average wholesale (terminal gate) unleaded petrol price stands at 108.7 cents a litre, up 1.9 cents a litre over the week. The terminal gate diesel price stands at 107.6 cents a litre, up by 3.4 cents a litre over the previous week.
• Last week the key Singapore gasoline price rose by US$2.00 or 3.3 per cent to US$62.20 a barrel. In Australian dollar terms the Singapore gasoline price rose by $3.23 a barrel or 4.1 per cent to a 17-week high of $82.13 a barrel or 51.66 cents a litre.
• MotorMouth records the following retail prices for capital cities today: Sydney 110.6c; Melbourne 122.6c; Brisbane 128.3c; Adelaide 109.2c; Perth 104.1c; Canberra 118.1c; Darwin 109.9c; Hobart 121.0c.
• In the September quarter Australian petrol prices fell by between 2-3 per cent after lifting 5.9 per cent in the June quarter. As such, lower petrol prices are keeping downward pressure on the overall inflation rate.

What is the importance of the economic data?

• The Australian Bureau of Statistics releases data on overseas arrivals and departures is produced monthly and is an indicator of the health of the tourism sector. The figures are also useful in understanding spending trends and tracking migrant numbers – an indicator with widespread implications for employment, housing and spending.
• Weekly figures on petrol prices are compiled by ORIMA Research on behalf of the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP). National average retail prices are calculated as the weighted average of each State/Territory’s metropolitan and non-metropolitan retail petrol prices, with the weights based on the number of registered petrol vehicles in each of these regions. AIP data for retail petrol prices is based on available market data supplied by MotorMouth.

What are the implications for interest rates and investors?

• In-bound tourism is solidly supporting a raft of travel, hospitality and retail businesses. The oil price needs to be watched carefully. If OPEC is successful in lifting oil prices it could serve to tame deflationary fears.