Petrol prices at lowest levels in four months

Weekly petrol

• Petrol: According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average Australian price of unleaded petrol fell by 0.9 cents to 133.6 cents a litre in the past week – the lowest level in over 4 months.
• Retail margins increase: Gross retail petrol margins increased last week. The five-week average gross retail margin (the gap between the pump and terminal gate price) rose by 0.2 cents to 13.08 cents a litre.

What does it all mean?

• Good news for Aussie motorists. Petrol prices are the lowest in over four months. But will prices stay that way?
• The Easter weekend is coming up, and in some states the school holidays start. One doesn’t normally associate chocolate eggs and petrol prices, but it may be best to fill-up in advance of Easter Bunny as the retail petrol price cycle could take a turn for the worse in some capital cities and regions.
• In fact Sydney fuel prices rose last week by almost 15 cents per litre. And Melbourne and Brisbane fuel prices are approaching the bottom of the latest price cycle after prices peaked at between $1.48-$1.49 cents per litre over the week ended February 25.
• The Singapore price of unleaded petrol is the key petrol pricing benchmark for Australia. Around 20 per cent of petrol is imported from Singapore and South Korea to meet Aussie demand according to the Australian Institute of Petroleum. Last week the benchmark Singapore price rose to its highest level in three weeks.
• And while wholesale petrol prices aren’t directly linked to crude oil prices, the Brent crude price increased to 2- week highs last week. Better global risk sentiment and rising sharemarkets have supported oil prices. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global oil demand will pick up this year, but US supply is growing at a faster pace, which should boost inventories.
• Oil traders also repositioned their portfolios ahead of comments from the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman over the weekend. Over the week ended March 16, Brent crude rose by US72c or 1.1 per cent to US$66.21 a barrel and the US Nymex price rose by US30c or 0.5 per cent to US$62.34 a barrel.
• Gross retail petrol margins increased last week. The five-week average gross retail margin (the gap between the pump and terminal gate price) rose by 0.2 cents to 13.08 cents a litre.

What do the figures show?

• Petrol prices

• According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average Australian price of unleaded petrol fell by 0.9 cents to 133.6 cents a litre in the past week – the lowest level in over 4 months.
• The metropolitan petrol price fell by 1.0 cents to 132.2 cents per litre and the regional price declined by 0.5 cents to 136.5 cents per litre.
• Average unleaded petrol prices across states and territories over the past week were: Sydney (up by 14.9 cents to 140.7 c/l), Melbourne (down by 6.3 cents to 126.1 c/l), Brisbane (down by 8.9 cents to 127.2 c/l), Adelaide (down by 14.7 cents to 125.1 c/l), Perth (down by 0.1 cents to 135.6 c/l), Darwin (down by 0.1 cents to 148.3 c/l), Canberra (down by 0.1 cents to 147.9 c/l) and Hobart (down by 0.2 cents to 145.4 c/l).
• The national average Australian price of diesel petrol fell by 0.2 cents to 138.5 cents per litre. The metropolitan price fell by 0.3 cents to 139.1 c/l and the regional average price fell by 0.1 cents to 138.0 c/l.
• Today, the national average wholesale (terminal gate) unleaded petrol price stands at 122.8 cents a litre, down by 1.0 cents over the week. The terminal gate diesel price stands at 123.6 cents a litre, down by 0.9 cents over the past week.
• Last week the key Singapore gasoline price rose by US$1.40 or 1.9 per cent to US$75.80 a barrel. In Australian dollar terms the Singapore gasoline price last week rose by US$1.82 or 1.9 per cent to $97.30 a barrel or 58.66 cents a litre.
• MotorMouth records the following average retail prices for capital cities today: Sydney 137.7c; Melbourne 123.9c; Brisbane 124.6c; Adelaide 120.2c; Perth 126.2c; Canberra 147.9c; Darwin 148.2c; Hobart 140.2c.

What is the importance of the economic data?

• Weekly figures on petrol prices are compiled by ORIMA Research on behalf of the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP). National average retail prices are calculated as the weighted average of each State/Territory’s metropolitan and non-metropolitan retail petrol prices, with the weights based on the number of registered petrol vehicles in each of these regions. AIP data for retail petrol prices is based on available market data supplied by MotorMouth.

What are the implications for interest rates and investors?

• Petrol prices have eased in most capital cities – especially in Adelaide. However, the price cycle has already turned in Sydney and an inflection point in Melbourne and Brisbane is likely in the lead up to the Easter holiday weekend. It might be time to fill-up now in those capital cities.
• Sydney retail fuel prices are increasing following the end of the most recent price discounting cycle. And prices remain elevated in Hobart, Darwin and Canberra.
• Motorists are encouraged to check the NSW Fuel Check, myNRMA, MotorMouth and GasBuddy smartphone apps for the cheapest prices at local petrol stations.
• CommSec expects interest rates to be unchanged until at least the December quarter.