The encouraging sign is that rental growth appears to be moderating in some markets.

SQM Research has released its latest data on residential property vacancy rates.

Australia’s national residential vacancy rate increased to 1.3% in June 2026, up from 1.2% in May, with the total number of residential vacancies rising slightly to 39,229 dwellings from 37,844 the previous month.

While the increase suggests a modest easing in rental market conditions, vacancy rates remain well below long-term averages, with every capital city continuing to record vacancy rates below 2%, highlighting the ongoing shortage of rental accommodation across Australia.

National vacancy rates

Capital city highlights

Sydney: Vacancy rates increased slightly to 1.6%, up from 1.5% in May, with 11,957 dwellings available. The Sydney rental market has continued to ease modestly, although conditions remain considerably tighter than historical averages.

Melbourne: Vacancy rates held steady at 1.6%, with 8,640 vacancies recorded. Melbourne continues to exhibit relatively balanced rental conditions compared to other capital cities.

Brisbane: Vacancy rates remained unchanged at 0.9%, with 3,065 dwellings available. Rental conditions remain extremely tight as population growth continues to support demand.

Perth: Vacancy rates declined to 0.6%, down from 0.7%, with 1,247 dwellings available. Perth remains one of Australia’s most constrained rental markets.

Adelaide: Vacancy rates remained unchanged at 0.7%, with 1,096 dwellings available. Limited rental stock continues to underpin tight market conditions.

Canberra: Vacancy rates increased to 1.7%, up from 1.6%, with 1,063 dwellings available. The ACT continues to record a gradual easing in rental availability.

Darwin: Vacancy rates remained unchanged at 0.3%, with only 64 dwellings available. Darwin continues to record Australia’s lowest vacancy rate, reflecting an exceptionally tight rental market.

Hobart: Vacancy rates increased to 0.7%, up from 0.6%, with 185 dwellings available. While vacancy rates have risen slightly, rental availability remains constrained.

Advertised rents analysis

National advertised rents remained elevated through July, with combined rents easing 0.4% over the past 30 days but remaining 8.1% higher than a year ago, highlighting the resilience of rental pricing despite a modest increase in vacancies.

The national combined rent average now stands at $697.43 per week, while the capital city average sits at $793.63 per week.

Nationally, house rents eased 0.5% over the month but remain 8.7% higher over the year, while unit rents declined 0.2% monthly and are 7.1% higher annually, suggesting rental growth is beginning to moderate after a sustained period of strong increases.

Sydney: Combined rents eased 0.4% for the month but remain 7.6% higher year-on-year, with house rents averaging $1,149.81 per week.

Melbourne: Combined rents declined 0.3% over the month while remaining 5.9% higher annually, supported by continued demand for well-located properties.

Brisbane: Combined rents rose 1.0% for the month and are 9.1% higher year-on-year, maintaining one of the strongest annual growth rates among the eastern capitals.

Perth: Combined rents declined 1.6% over the month but remain 5.0% higher than a year ago, suggesting some easing following an extended period of exceptional rental growth.

Adelaide: Combined rents increased 0.6% for the month and 3.4% annually, with unit rents continuing to outperform houses.

Canberra: Combined rents rose 0.7% over the month and 5.8% year-on-year, reflecting improving rental demand.

Darwin: Combined rents increased 0.9% for the month and 13.8% annually, continuing to record some of the strongest rental growth in Australia.

Hobart: Combined rents declined 0.9% over the month but remain 12.1% higher year-on-year, reflecting ongoing supply constraints despite recent moderation.

Advertised rents — week ending 12 July 2026

Louis Christopher, Managing Director of SQM Research, commented: “While the national vacancy rate has edged up to 1.3%, Australia’s rental market remains exceptionally tight by historical standards. Most capital cities continue to record vacancy rates below one per cent or only marginally above, highlighting that rental supply remains insufficient to meet demand.”

“The encouraging sign is that rental growth appears to be moderating in some markets, with national asking rents easing slightly over the past month. However, annual rental growth remains strong at 8.1%, and cities such as Darwin, Hobart and Brisbane continue to experience significant rental inflation.”

“Perth and Darwin remain particularly constrained, with vacancy rates of just 0.6% and 0.3% respectively. Without a substantial increase in the supply of rental housing, affordability pressures are likely to remain a challenge for tenants for some time yet.”

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• Asking prices stalled nationally, but five of the eight capital cities — including Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide — recorded monthly declines.
• National property listings declined 4.1% month-on-month in June to 248,249 dwellings, reflecting the typical seasonal slowdown at the start of winter.
• Despite the monthly decline, total listings remain 6.1% higher than June 2025.
• New listings fell 10.4% nationally, though remain 10.3% higher year-on-year.
• Old listings declined 2.1%, indicating fewer long-standing properties on the market.
• Distressed listings increased 10.8% nationally, although they remain 6.2% below June 2025 levels.
• National asking prices softened over the month but continue to record annual growth.

Total listings

Australia’s residential property market cooled in June following the strong increase in listings recorded during May, with national listings declining 4.1% to 248,249 dwellings. While the monthly fall reflects a typical winter slowdown, overall supply remains healthier than a year ago, with national listings now 6.1% higher annually.

Sydney (-5.6%) and Melbourne (-6.1%) recorded the largest monthly declines among the major capitals, though both cities continue to report significantly higher stock levels than a year ago, up 17.4% and 19.6% respectively.

Brisbane was one of the few major capitals to continue building supply, with listings rising 1.2% over the month and 8.0% year-on-year.

Following three consecutive months of strong growth, Perth experienced a modest pullback, with total listings easing 5.3% during June. Even so, listing levels remain broadly consistent with long-term trends despite sitting 5.4% below June 2025.

Adelaide declined 5.2% for the month but remains 10.4% higher than a year ago. Canberra recorded the largest monthly decline nationally (-10.1%), while Darwin continued to edge higher (+2.0%). Hobart experienced the sharpest fall among the capitals (-11.9%), with listings now 17.4% below last year’s level.

New listings

New listings eased 10.4% nationally to 69,247 dwellings, reflecting the seasonal slowdown typically seen during winter.

Sydney (-19.8%) and Melbourne (-20.1%) recorded the largest declines in fresh listings following strong activity during May.

Brisbane (-5.5%), Perth (-9.2%) and Adelaide (-10.2%) also recorded lower levels of new stock entering the market.

Canberra declined 19.0%, while Hobart fell 21.5% after elevated activity in previous months.

Darwin was the only capital to record a notable increase, with new listings rising 5.2% for the month and 33.5% higher than a year ago.

Despite the monthly slowdown, national new listings remain 10.3% above June 2025 levels.

Old listings

Older stock declined 2.1% nationally to 72,266 dwellings, suggesting longer-dated listings continue to be gradually absorbed.

Sydney (-6.1%), Melbourne (-3.0%) and Brisbane (-4.6%) all recorded declines, while Perth (-3.9%) also saw a reduction in older listings.

Adelaide (-1.4%) and Canberra (-11.1%) continued to record falling levels of aged stock.

Darwin (-11.0%) and Hobart (-4.5%) also experienced declines, with Darwin remaining 40.1% below levels recorded a year ago.

National old listings remain 6.2% lower than June 2025.

Distressed listings

Distressed listings rose 10.8% nationally during June to 4,263 properties, representing the second consecutive monthly increase. However, distressed stock remains 6.2% lower than a year ago.

Queensland (+17.0%), Western Australia (+35.1%) and South Australia (+20.2%) recorded the strongest monthly increases, while New South Wales and Victoria each increased 1.5%.

The ACT continues to stand out, with distressed listings 44.1% higher than a year ago despite only a modest monthly increase (+4.3%).

Tasmania was the only state to record a decline during the month (-9.5%).

Asking prices

SQM Research’s Weekly Asking Prices Index for the week ending 30 June 2026 showed a softer month for asking prices across many capital cities, although annual price growth remains positive.

Nationally, asking prices declined 1.4% for houses and 0.7% for units, with combined dwelling asking prices down 1.3% over the month, while remaining 7.6% higher year-on-year.

Sydney recorded the largest monthly decline in combined asking prices (-2.8%) but remains 1.7% higher than a year ago.

Melbourne (-0.3%) and Brisbane (-0.8%) also recorded modest monthly declines, while annual growth remains positive at 2.6% and 12.8% respectively.

Perth continued to outperform, with combined asking prices rising 0.5% over the month and 14.3% higher year-on-year, while Adelaide also recorded a modest monthly increase (+0.2%) and remains 7.1% higher annually.

Canberra recorded a 1.1% monthly increase and remains 5.0% higher year-on-year. Darwin recorded a slight monthly decline in combined asking prices (-0.4%) while remaining 11.5% higher year-on-year.

Hobart also recorded a modest monthly decline (-0.5%), though combined asking prices remain 10.4% higher than a year ago.

Commentary

Louis Christopher, Managing Director, SQM Research “The June figures reflect what we would normally expect to see at the beginning of winter, with new listings easing after a particularly strong May. While overall supply has pulled back over the month, the broader picture remains negative, with national listings above where they were this time last year, indicating stock is struggling to move.”

“Sydney and Melbourne continue to carry significantly more stock than a year ago, while Brisbane has continued to add listings despite the seasonal slowdown. Perth has also eased after three months of exceptionally strong growth, although supply remains relatively tight compared with historical levels.”

“One trend we’re watching closely is the continued increase in distressed listings. While they’re still below last year’s levels nationally, we’ve now seen two consecutive monthly increases, particularly across Queensland and Western Australia. It’s something we’ll continue to monitor over the coming months.”

“One other trend we are watching is the movement of people selling to private treaty compared to auction, which is not unsurprising during a housing downturn.”

“Overall, the market remains well supplied. Supply has improved compared to last year, asking prices continue to hold up reasonably well, and we’re not yet seeing evidence of widespread financial stress.”

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Despite the monthly increase, vacancy rates remain below historical averages, indicating that rental market conditions continue to favour landlords in most parts of the country.

Capital city highlights

Sydney: Vacancy rates rose to 1.3%, up from 1.1% in March, with 9,696 dwellings available. The increase suggests a modest easing in rental market conditions following strong leasing activity earlier in the year.

Melbourne: Vacancy rates increased slightly to 1.5%, from 1.4%, with 8,079 vacancies recorded. Rental conditions remain relatively balanced compared with other major capitals.

Brisbane: Vacancy rates remained tight at 0.8%, with 2,900 dwellings available. The city continues to experience strong tenant demand amid constrained supply.

Perth: Vacancy rates rose marginally to 0.6%, from 0.5%, with 1,138 dwellings vacant. Despite the increase, Perth remains one of the tightest rental markets nationally.

Adelaide: Vacancy rates held steady at 0.7%, with 1,117 dwellings available, reflecting ongoing supply shortages.

Canberra: Vacancy rates increased to 1.4%, from 1.1%, with 873 dwellings vacant. The market has shown signs of easing following tighter conditions earlier in the year.

Darwin: Vacancy rates declined further to 0.3%, from 0.4%, with just 75 dwellings available, marking the tightest rental market in the country.

Hobart: Vacancy rates rose slightly to 0.5%, from 0.4%, with 140 dwellings available, though conditions remain very tight overall.

Advertised rents analysis

National advertised rents continued to rise through May, with combined rents increasing 0.7% over the past 30 days and 7.3% higher year-on-year, reflecting ongoing tight rental market conditions across most capital cities.

The national combined rent average now stands at $696.94 per week, while the capital city average has increased to $794.54, supported by continued growth in both house and unit rents.

Nationally, house rents rose 0.5% for the month and 7.8% over the year, while unit rents increased 0.8% monthly and 6.5% annually, indicating sustained demand for medium-density accommodation.

Sydney: Combined rents rose 0.3% for the month and 7.3% year-on-year, with house rents averaging $1,156.97 per week.

Melbourne: Combined rents increased 0.3% monthly and 6.1% annually, supported by continued gains in unit rents.

Brisbane: Combined rents rose 1.4% for the month and 8.1% over the year, reflecting continued population-driven demand.

Perth: Combined rents declined 0.2% over the month but remain 6.3% higher year-on-year, indicating some short-term easing after sustained growth.

Adelaide: Combined rents fell 0.8% for the month but are still 4.6% higher annually, with unit rents continuing to outperform houses.

Canberra: Combined rents increased 1.3% monthly and 1.4% annually, suggesting improving rental market conditions.

Darwin: Combined rents rose 1.5% for the month and 11.3% year-on-year, maintaining one of the strongest rental growth rates nationally.

Hobart: Combined rents increased 0.5% over the month and 15.2% annually, reflecting continued tight rental supply.

Louis Christopher, Managing Director of SQM Research, commented: “While the national vacancy rate has risen modestly over recent months, rental market conditions remain extremely tight by historical standards, particularly in cities such as Darwin, Brisbane and Perth.

The renewed rise in asking rents — now up 7.3% nationally over the past year — highlights the ongoing imbalance between rental supply and tenant demand across much of the country.

We are recording very limited rental availability in several capital cities, which is continuing to place upward pressure on rents despite some modest increases in listings. Without a sustained lift in housing supply and/or a steadying of demand, rental affordability pressures are likely to remain a major issue throughout 2026.

With regard to the impeding property tax changes, we have previously done rigorous modelling on a pullback of negative gearing scenario. While I have no doubt in my mind this change is going to put additional pressure on the rental market, the time for talking is now over. We will soon see actual data come through.”

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• Total national property listings were broadly flat in April (-0.1% month-on-month) at 234,469 dwellings.
• Listings are 3.3% lower year-on-year, indicating continued but easing supply constraints.
• New listings declined 6.8% in April following March’s lift but remain 11.1% higher year-on-year.
• Old listings increased 3.6%, suggesting some accumulation of longer-dated stock. • Distressed listings rose 4.2% month-on-month, though remain 23.7% lower than a year ago.
• Asking prices softened slightly over the month but remain 11.5% higher year-on-year nationally.

Total listings

Australia’s housing market recorded a further lift in listings during March, with total national residential stock rising 3.5% to 234,734 dwellings, reflecting a continued post-summer recovery in supply.

Sydney declined 3.1% for the month, while Melbourne was broadly flat (+0.4%) and remains 10.0% higher year-on-year.

Brisbane rose 3.6%, though remains 9.4% below last year’s levels.

Perth stock on market continued to lift, rising a further 4.3% month-on-month to 13,133 dwellings, extending the rebound seen in March. Despite this, listings remain 15.9% lower yearon-year, highlighting that supply conditions are still relatively tight for now.

Adelaide (-0.5%) and Canberra (-3.8%) recorded declines, while Darwin (+6.2%) posted a stronger increase.

Hobart fell 3.5%, continuing its softer trend.

New listings

New listings declined 6.8% nationally in April to 73,588 dwellings, following March’s increase, reflecting a moderation in fresh supply entering the market and driven by the April public holidays as well as some uncertainty by would-be vendors

Sydney (-22.0%) and Melbourne (-12.9%) recorded the largest pullbacks after strong prior months.

Brisbane (-3.7%), Adelaide (-2.2%) and Perth (-1.2%) also eased modestly. Canberra (-13.0%) and Darwin (-7.0%) declined, while Hobart fell 4.6%.

Despite the monthly decline, new listings remain 11.1% higher year-on-year, suggesting underlying vendor activity remains stronger than in 2025.

Old listings

Older stock increased 3.6% nationally to 66,819 dwellings, indicating a modest accumulation of longer-dated listings.

Sydney (+4.6%), Melbourne (+5.2%) and Brisbane (+4.9%) all recorded increases. Adelaide (+10.9%) and Canberra (+6.0%) also saw notable rises.

Perth was the exception, with old listings declining 4.0%, suggesting continued absorption of stock despite the recent lift in total listings.

Darwin (+13.2%) recorded a strong increase, though remains significantly below last year’s levels (-53.5% YoY). Hobart declined 2.0%.

Distressed listings

Distressed listings rose 4.2% in April to 3,659 properties, though remain 23.7% lower yearon-year, indicating overall financial conditions remain relatively stable.

New South Wales (+5.0%), Queensland (+5.7%) and Western Australia (+8.0%) all recorded increases.

Victoria (+1.4%) and South Australia (+5.3%) also rose modestly.

The ACT was flat (0.0%) but remains elevated compared to last year (+76.0% YoY), continuing to warrant monitoring.

Tasmania (-10.2%) was the only state to record a notable decline.

Asking prices

SQM Research’s Weekly Asking Prices Index for the week ending 27 April 2026 showed mixed price movements across capital cities.

Nationally, asking prices eased slightly over the month, with houses down 0.3%, units up 0.3%, and combined dwellings slipping 0.2%, while remaining 11.5% higher year-on-year.

Sydney (-0.5%) and Brisbane (-1.3%) recorded monthly declines in combined prices, while Melbourne was broadly flat.

Perth continued to show resilience, with combined asking prices rising 0.7% over the month and 18.6% annually.

Adelaide posted a 1.4% monthly gain, while Canberra declined 2.3%, reflecting softer shortterm conditions.

Darwin recorded a slight monthly decline in combined asking prices (-0.2%), while remaining 11.6% higher year-on-year.

Hobart recorded a solid rebound of 1.9% over the month and remains 7.8% higher year-onyear.

Commentary

Louis Christopher, Managing Director, SQM Research “April’s figures highlight an uncertain market and one that was impacted by the seasonal public holidays,” said Louis Christopher.

“While total listings were broadly unchanged over the month, the composition of the data is quite mixed. We are seeing some pullback in new listings alongside a rise in older stock, which suggests vendor uncertainty and cautious buyers.”

“Perth a key market to watch. There might be signs of a slowing in activity. Listings have now risen for two consecutive months, which is notable given how tight conditions have been. However, supply is still well below last year’s levels.”

“At the same time, distressed listings remain relatively low, and asking prices are still well above where they were a year ago. This indicates the market remains supported, even as short-term conditions become more variable.”

“In my opinion, tomorrow’s RBA meeting is going to be crucial for market momentum over the winter months. While it is likely the cash rate will rise to 4.35%, the language that goes with it will be just as important. If the RBA flags more rate hikes, we can expect a sustained downturn in listings activity for the remainder of the year.

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The March result indicates that strong tenant demand continues to absorb available rental stock, with vacancy rates now approaching critically low levels across several capital cities.

SQM’s calculations of vacancies are based on online rental listings that have been advertised for three weeks or more compared to the total number of established rental properties. SQM considers this to be a superior methodology compared to using a potentially incomplete sample of agency surveys or merely relying on raw online listings advertised. Please go to our Methodology page for more information on how SQM’s vacancies are compiled.

Capital city highlights

Sydney: Vacancy rates declined to 1.1%, down from 1.3%, with 8,469 dwellings available. The market continues to tighten following strong leasing activity.

Melbourne: Vacancy rates eased to 1.4%, from 1.6%, with 7,549 vacancies recorded. Conditions remain relatively balanced compared to other capitals.

Brisbane: Vacancy rates held steady at 0.8%, with 2,662 dwellings available, maintaining one of the tightest rental markets in the country.

Perth: Vacancy rates fell further to 0.5%, from 0.6%, with 988 dwellings vacant. Perth remains among the most constrained rental markets nationally. Page 2 of 5

Adelaide: Vacancy rates declined to 0.7%, down from 0.8%, with 1,071 dwellings available. Supply remains limited.

Canberra: Vacancy rates held steady at 1.1%, with 700 dwellings available, indicating a stabilisation following earlier fluctuations.

Darwin: Vacancy rates dropped to 0.4%, from 0.6%, with just 93 dwellings vacant, marking one of the lowest vacancy levels nationally.

Hobart: Vacancy rates remained tight at 0.4%, with 121 dwellings available, continuing to reflect constrained rental supply.

Advertised rents analysis

National advertised rents continued to rise through early April, with combined rents increasing 0.4% over the past 30 days and 5.9% higher year-on-year, reflecting ongoing supply shortages across most capital cities.

The national combined rent average now stands at $692.45 per week, while the capital city average has increased to $791.44, supported by steady growth in both house and unit rents.

Nationally, house rents were broadly flat over the month (-0.3%) but remain 6.0% higher over the year, while unit rents rose 1.4% monthly and 5.6% annually, suggesting continued demand for medium-density accommodation.

Sydney: Combined rents rose 0.9% for the month and 7.4% year-on-year, with house rents averaging $1,154.05 per week.

Melbourne: Combined rents increased 0.6% monthly and 5.9% annually, supported by steady leasing activity.

Brisbane: Combined rents edged down 0.1% for the month but remain 6.8% higher over the year, indicating a pause following strong growth.

Perth: Combined rents rose 1.2% for the month and 6.9% annually, reflecting ongoing rental shortages.

Adelaide: Combined rents increased 1.5% monthly and 4.4% annually, supported by rising unit rents.

Canberra: Combined rents rose 2.5% for the month and 1.1% annually, indicating renewed momentum following earlier softness. Page 3 of 5

Darwin: Combined rents lifted 0.6% monthly and 10.2% annually, maintaining strong annual growth.

Hobart: Combined rents rose 2.9% for the month and are 12.5% higher year-on-year, reflecting ongoing tight rental conditions and limited supply.

Louis Christopher, Managing Director of SQM Research, commented:  “The national vacancy rate dropping to 1.0% highlights just how tight Australia’s rental market has become. We are now seeing vacancy rates at critically low levels in several cities, particularly Perth, Darwin and Hobart.

“While some markets are showing brief pauses in rental growth, the overall trend remains upward due to the ongoing imbalance between supply and demand.

“Without a significant increase in new housing supply and/or a stabilisation of population growth rates, it is likely that rental pressures will remain elevated throughout 2026. These accelerated rates of rental increases will no doubt feed through to the CPI at some point this year.”

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Australia’s national residential vacancy rate fell to 1.1% in February 2026, down from 1.2% in January and notably down from February 2025 (1.3%). The total number of residential vacancies declined to 34,572 dwellings, indicating continued tightening in rental market conditions across most capital cities.

The February result suggests that the seasonal tightening typically observed at the start of the year has continued and expanded, with strong tenant demand absorbing available rental listings down to levels below what was recorded this time last year .

Capital city highlights

Sydney:
Vacancy rates declined to 1.3%, down from 1.5% in January, with 9,491 dwellings available. The city continues to see strong tenant demand following the summer leasing period.

Melbourne:
Vacancy rates tightened to 1.6%, from 1.7%, with 8,294 vacancies recorded. Rental conditions remain relatively balanced compared with other major capitals.

Brisbane:
Vacancy rates tightened slightly to 0.8%, down from 0.9%, with 3,002 dwellings available, maintaining one of the tighter markets nationally.

Perth:
Vacancy rates held steady at 0.6%, with 1,130 dwellings available. The city continues to experience strong rental demand amid extremely limited new supply.

Adelaide: Vacancy rates remained unchanged at 0.8%, with 1,203 vacancies recorded. Supply constraints continue to keep rental conditions tight.

Canberra:
Vacancy rates declined to 1.1%, from 1.4%, with 688 dwellings available. The drop reflects stronger leasing activity in early 2026.

Darwin:
Vacancy rates fell to 0.6%, down from 0.8%, with 144 dwellings vacant, marking one of the lowest vacancy levels among the capital cities.

Hobart:
Vacancy rates increased slightly to 0.5%, from 0.4%, with 132 dwellings available. Despite the increase, Hobart remains one of the tightest rental markets nationally.

Advertised rents analysis

National advertised rents continued to rise through early March, with combined rents increasing 1.0% over the past 30 days and 6.6% higher year-on-year, reflecting ongoing supply shortages across most capital cities. This represents an acceleration in rents compared to the same period in 2025.

The national combined rent average now stands at $688.76 per week, while the capital city average has increased to $782.57, supported by gains in both house and unit rents.

Nationally, house rents rose 1.6% for the month and 7.8% over the year, while unit rents increased 0.1% monthly and 4.6% annually, indicating steady demand for mediumdensity accommodation.

Sydney:
Combined rents rose 0.5% for the month and 7.3% year-on-year, driven by strong house rent growth with houses averaging $1,145.45 per week.

Melbourne:
Combined rents increased 0.8% monthly and 5.0% annually, supported by continued leasing activity across both houses and units.

Brisbane:
Combined rents rose 0.6% for the month and 8.0% over the year, reflecting sustained population inflows.

Perth:
Combinedrents lifted 1.3% month-on-month and 5.5% year-on-year, highlighting the city’s ongoing rental supply shortages.

Adelaide:
Combined rents increased 0.3% for the month and 2.8% annually, with house rents averaging $690.13 per week.

Canberra:
Combined rents declined 1.1% over the month and 2.5% over the year, indicating some short-term easing in the ACT market.

Darwin:
Combined rents rose 1.9% for the month and 12.7% annually, representing one of the strongest rental growth rates nationally.

Hobart:
Combined rents increased 2.9% for the month and 12.2% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing supply constraints.

Louis Christopher, Managing Director of SQM Research, commented: “The national vacancy rate falling to 1.1% shows the rental market remains very tight across most of the country. While some seasonal tightening is expected at this time of year, demand for rental housing is clearly continuing to outstrip available supply and so this move goes beyond normal seasonality.

“Vacancy rates below one per cent in cities such as Brisbane, Perth and Darwin highlight just how constrained rental supply remains in parts of Australia.

“With advertised rents continuing to accelerate higher, the data suggests tenants are still facing strong competition for available properties. Without a meaningful lift in new housing supply and an easing in demand, rental pressures are likely to remain a feature of the market through much of 2026, which may feed into the CPI.”

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• Energy price pass-through lifting household bills (e.g., petrol potentially to $2.57/L at $150 oil) and eroding affordability.
• Limited wage growth amid AI adoption curbing labor demands, contrasting with 1970s-style spirals.
• Potential government rebates providing some offset, but not enough to fully revive momentum. (Source: SQM Research, March 2026).

Forecasts are annual percentage changes in dwelling prices. Scenarios incorporate RBA outlooks, energy shocks, and economic sensitivities.

Revised Base Case Sees Weighted Capital City Growth of 0% to +3%, down from Prior +6% to +10% Sydney, 10 March 2026 – SQM Research has revised its 2026 dwelling price forecasts downward, reflecting heightened risks from persistent energy shocks, reaccelerating inflation, and potential further RBA rate hikes. Under the updated base case— assuming the cash rate rises to 4.35% by mid-2026 and annual CPI peaks at 4.4%-5.0% for the June quarter—weighted capital city prices are now expected to rise by just 0% to +3%, a significant downgrade from the November 2025 projection of +6% to +10%.

The revisions account for escalating Middle East tensions disrupting oil supplies (Brent crude above $92 per barrel, with upside to $150), which could amplify cost-of-living pressures, suppress buyer sentiment, and force tighter monetary policy. While Perth and Darwin retain strong outlooks (+10% to +13% and +12% to +16%, respectively) due to resource-driven demand, major eastern capitals like Sydney (-6% to -2%) and Melbourne (-4% to -1%) face steeper headwinds from higher borrowing costs and subdued migration.

Alternative scenarios highlight the sensitivity to inflation and rates: In an aggressive hiking path (cash rate to 4.5%+ by year end, CPI to 5.5%+ by September), growth weakens further to -3% to +1% weighted average. Conversely, if rates peak at 4.1% then ease later in the year, or hold steady at 3.85%, outcomes improve modestly to +2% to +7% or +3% to +7%.

Louis Christopher, Managing Director of SQM Research, commented: “Our revised forecasts reflect a more cautious outlook as energy-driven inflation risks mount, potentially delaying rate relief and weighing on housing demand. While resource-heavy markets like Perth and Darwin hold firm, the downgrades in Sydney and Melbourne highlight vulnerability to higher rates. If shocks persist, we could see even softer outcomes, though fiscal measures like energy rebates might provide a buffer. Investors should monitor RBA signals closely amid these uncertainties.”

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• Total national property listings rose 4.6% month-on-month in February to 226,758 dwellings, reflecting a seasonal lift in market activity.
• Listings remain 9.1% lower year-on-year, highlighting ongoing supply constraints despite the rebound.
• New listings surged 48.6% nationally, marking the strongest monthly rise since spring.
• Old listings were broadly steady, rising just 0.7%, though remain 12.0% lower than a year ago.
• Distressed listings increased 6.2% month-on-month but remain 29.2% below February 2025 levels.
• National asking prices continued to trend higher, with combined dwelling prices up 1.9% over the month and 13.6% year-on-year.

Total listings

Australian real estate listing activity gained renewed momentum in February, with total national residential listings increasing 4.6% to 226,758 dwellings as vendor activity accelerated following January’s subdued conditions.

Sydney led the lift, with listings rising 15.6% to 33,437, now slightly above last year’s levels (+0.6% YoY).

Melbourne also recorded a strong increase (+14.1% MoM) to 41,036 and is now 2.7% higher year-on-year.

Brisbane saw a more modest gain (+3.7%), though total listings remain 21.0% below last year.

Perth declined 6.1% month-on-month and remains 25.7% lower year-on-year, underscoring tight stock conditions, while Adelaide (+5.1%) and Canberra (+11.6%) also recorded solid rebounds.

Darwin was broadly steady (-0.3%), while Hobart recorded a modest lift (+2.9%), though both markets remain materially lower than last year.

New listings

New listings surged sharply in February, rising 48.6% nationally to 76,077 dwellings, signalling a strong return of vendor activity following the seasonal hiatus over December and January.

Sydney recorded a 57.9% increase, while Melbourne rose an even stronger 73.9%, suggesting a clear seasonal ramp-up in supply.

Brisbane (+38.5%), Perth (+36.3%), Adelaide (+37.9%) and Canberra (+59.7%) also recorded significant gains. With Darwin (+16.5%) and Hobart (+32.2%) likewise posting solid monthly increases as activity broadened across the smaller capital markets.

Despite the monthly rebound, national new listings are broadly flat year-on-year (-0.1%), indicating that overall supply remains constrained compared to 2025 levels.

Old listings

Older stock remained broadly stable in February, increasing just 0.7% nationally to 63,624 dwellings, while remaining 12.0% lower year-on-year.

Sydney was steady (-0.1%), while Melbourne edged higher (+0.6%).

Brisbane (-8.0%), Perth (-8.8%) and Adelaide (-9.2%) all recorded meaningful declines in older listings, suggesting continued absorption of longer-dated stock.

Canberra recorded a 6.2% monthly rise, indicating some short-term accumulation.

Darwin (-8.7%) and Hobart (-3.4%) continued to see reductions in older listings, with Darwin sitting 67.3% below last year’s levels.

Distressed listings

Distressed listings rose 6.2% month-on-month in February to 3,502 properties, though remain significantly lower than a year ago (-29.2% YoY).

Western Australia recorded the sharpest monthly increase (+25.4%), followed by the ACT (+34.3%), where distressed listings are now 88.0% higher year-on-year.

Queensland (+2.8%) and New South Wales (+7.0%) also saw increases, while Victoria rose modestly (+1.4%).

Despite the monthly rise, distressed listings nationally remain well below 2025 levels, indicating continued household resilience.

Asking prices

SQM Research’s Weekly Asking Prices Index for the week ending 23 February 2026 showed continued upward momentum in dwelling prices nationally, signalling ongoing vendor confidence in the rising market.

Nationally, house asking prices rose 1.9% over the month, while unit prices increased 1.7%, with combined dwelling prices up 1.9% month-on-month and 13.6% year-on-year.

Sydney recorded marginal monthly softness in combined prices (-0.1%), though remains 9.8% higher year-on-year.

Melbourne saw mixed results across property types, with combined prices (-0.4%) down slightly, over the month but 7.3% higher annually.

Brisbane continued to outperform, with combined dwelling prices up 21.9% year-on-year, reflecting strong ongoing demand.

Perth recorded a solid monthly gain of 2.6% in combined prices and is 15.5% higher annually.

Adelaide posted continued strength (+0.2% monthly; +16.6% YoY), while Canberra and Hobart showed mixed short-term movements across property types, though annual growth remains positive.

Darwin continued to exhibit elevated volatility, with divergent results across houses and units.

Louis Christopher, Managing Director, SQM Research: “February’s figures confirm that the listing market is regaining momentum following the seasonal lull,” said Louis Christopher.

“The surge in new listings for February is fairly typical activity for this time of year. However, overall stock levels remain materially lower than a year ago, which continues to provide support to prices.”

“While distressed listings have ticked higher month-on-month, they remain well below 2025 levels. At this time, there are no indications of vendor stress across the housing market, but we will be watching closely given the recent interest rate rise and the current geopolitical turmoil that could create adverse economic waves in 2026.”

“If new listings continue to rise through March and April, we may see some easing in price growth. However, should supply remain tight relative to demand, upward pressure on prices—particularly in Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide—is likely to persist.”

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Australia’s national residential vacancy rate fell to 1.2% in January 2026, down from 1.4% in December. The total number of residential vacancies declined to 37,630 dwellings, reflecting a post-holiday tightening in rental conditions as seasonal listings were absorbed.

The January result reverses much of December’s seasonal lift in vacancies and indicates that rental market conditions remain structurally tight across most capital cities.

Capital city highlights

Sydney: Vacancy rates declined to 1.5%, down from 1.8% in December, with 10,987 dwellings available. The drop reflects strong early-year leasing activity.

Melbourne: Vacancy rates eased to 1.7%, down from 2.0%, with 9,197 vacancies. The city continues to show signs of stabilising following late-2025 easing.

Brisbane: Vacancy rates tightened to 0.9%, down from 1.2%, with 3,339 dwellings vacant. The market remains one of the tightest among the eastern capitals.

Perth: Vacancy rates fell to 0.6%, from 0.7%, with 1,153 vacancies. Perth remains among the most constrained rental markets nationally.

Adelaide: Vacancy rates eased to 0.8%, down from 0.9%, with 1,216 dwellings available. Rental supply remains limited.

Canberra: Vacancy rates declined to 1.4%, from 1.9%, with 870 vacancies. The city experienced a strong post-summer leasing rebound.

Darwin: Vacancy rates fell to 0.8%, down from 1.0%, with 195 dwellings vacant, reflecting tightening conditions after a modest late-2025 rise.

Hobart: Vacancy rates remained extremely tight at 0.4%, with just 112 dwellings available, continuing to rank as one of the tightest rental markets in the country.

Advertised rents analysis

National advertised rents showed renewed upward momentum through early February, with combined rents rising 2.2% over the past 30 days and 7.3% higher year-on-year, indicating that tightening vacancy rates are again placing upward pressure on rental pricing.

The national combined rent average now stands at $683.26 per week, while the capital city average increased to $779.03 per week, reflecting broad-based growth across most markets.

Nationally, house rents were largely steady over the month (-0.8% rolling monthly change) but remain 7.5% higher year-on-year, while unit rents rose 0.7% over the month and are 6.9% higher annually, suggesting continued demand for medium-density accommodation.

Sydney: Combined rents rose 1.7% for the month and are 6.6% higher year-on-year, with house rents averaging $1,133.19 per week.

Melbourne: Combined rents increased 2.2% monthly and 5.2% annually, supported by strengthening unit demand.

Brisbane: Combined rents lifted 1.5% for the month and 8.5% year-on-year, maintaining strong annual growth.

Perth: Combined rents rose 1.9% for the month and 4.7% annually, consistent with persistently low vacancy levels.

Adelaide: Combined rents increased 0.4% monthly and 4.2% year-on-year, reflecting moderate but steady growth.

Canberra: Combined rents rose 1.0% over the month but remain 1.0% lower than a year ago, indicating a stabilisation phase.

Darwin: Combined rents lifted 1.5% monthly and 9.4% annually, marking one of the strongest annual growth rates nationally.

Hobart: Combined rents edged down 0.4% over the month but remain 10.1% higher year-on-year, underpinned by extremely low vacancy rates.

Sam Tate, Head of Property at SQM Research, commented: “The decline in the national vacancy rate to 1.2% in January highlights how quickly seasonal increases in rental supply can be absorbed in Australia’s current market.

“Most capital cities recorded tightening conditions, particularly Brisbane, Perth and Darwin, where vacancy rates are again sitting below 1%.

“With advertised rents rising in many markets early in the year, it suggests tenant demand remains strong. Unless we see a meaningful increase in new rental supply, upward pressure on rents is likely to persist through the first half of 2026.”

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• Total national property listings rose 3.1% month-on-month in January to 216,826 dwellings, reflecting a seasonal rebound following December’s sharp contraction.
• Listings remain 11.0% lower year-on-year, highlighting ongoing structural supply tightness.
• New listings lifted sharply in Sydney, while Brisbane also saw a solid monthly bounce, despite activity remaining below last year’s levels.
• Old listings increased 4.8% nationally, suggesting some accumulation of longer-dated stock as buyer activity resets post-holidays.
• Distressed listings edged lower nationally and are now 31.0% below January 2025 levels.
• Asking prices were mixed in January, with strength continuing in Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide.

Total Listings

Australia’s housing market recorded a modest rebound in listings during January as sellers returned following the holiday period.

Total national listings increased 3.1% to 216,826 dwellings, reversing part of December’s seasonal decline. Despite the lift, total listings remain 11.0% lower than a year ago.

Sydney listings rose 7.1% to 28,922, while Melbourne increased 3.6% to 35,980.

Brisbane (+5.5%) and Adelaide (+5.9%) also recorded solid monthly gains, while Perth rose 3.2%.

Canberra listings increased 3.8%, while Hobart lifted 2.3%.

Darwin was the only capital to record a monthly decline (-0.7%) and remains 36.3% below January 2025 levels.

SQM Research New Listings New listings were mixed in January, reflecting a staggered return of vendor activity across capital cities.

Nationally, new listings slipped 4.7% to 51,199, marginally below January 2025 levels (-3.4% YoY).

Sydney recorded a strong rebound, with new listings jumping 52.9% month-on-month, while Brisbane rose 19.5% and Darwin increased 25.8%.

Melbourne and Adelaide posted modest gains (+4.6% and +5.7% respectively), while Canberra rose 3.0%.

Perth declined slightly (-3.8%), while Hobart recorded a sharper fall (-23.3%) following a stronger December.

Old Listings

Older stock increased 4.8% nationally to 63,195 dwellings, indicating some accumulation of longer-dated listings as the market resets early in the year.

However, old listings remain 12.0% lower year-on-year, suggesting overall stock levels remain historically tight.

Melbourne (+4.3%), Adelaide (+3.9%) and Perth (+1.6%) recorded notable monthly increases. Sydney (+0.4%) and Brisbane (+0.1%) were broadly steady.

Canberra (-3.5%), Hobart (-2.1%) and Darwin (-5.2%) continued to see reductions in older stock, with Darwin sitting 67.7% below last year’s levels.

Distressed Listings

Distressed listings edged lower nationally in January, down 0.8% to 3,299 dwellings, and remain 31.0% lower year-on-year.

New South Wales (+1.4%) and Queensland (+2.8%) recorded modest monthly increases, while Victoria declined 2.3%.

Western Australia saw the sharpest monthly fall (-15.7%) and remains 61.6% lower than a year ago.

The ACT recorded a 9.4% monthly rise and is now 59.1% higher year-on-year, continuing to warrant close monitoring.

Asking Prices

SQM Research’s Weekly Asking Prices Index for the week ending 27 January 2026 showed mixed price movements across capital cities, though annual growth remains strong.

Nationally, asking prices eased slightly over the month for houses (-0.3%), while unit prices rose 1.3%, with combined dwellings broadly flat (-0.1%) but 11.4% higher year-on-year.

Sydney house asking prices were steady, up 0.2% monthly, and remain 10.6% higher year-onyear, while unit prices edged higher (+0.4% MoM).

Melbourne recorded modest softness, with combined prices down 0.1% for the month, though still 7.7% higher year-on-year.

Brisbane continued to outperform, with combined asking prices rising 1.8% monthly and 20.7% year-on-year, supported by strong gains in both houses and units.

Perth also recorded strong momentum, with combined prices up 2.9% for the month and 13.0% annually, driven by unit price growth.

Adelaide maintained solid conditions, with combined asking prices rising 0.5% monthly and 18.9% year-on-year.

Canberra and Hobart recorded divergent monthly price movements across houses and units, reflecting uneven short-term market dynamics, though annual price growth remains positive.

Darwin continued to exhibit elevated volatility, with inconsistent performance across property types.

Sam Tate, Head of Property of SQM Research said: “January’s data reflects a fairly typical reopening of the housing market following the Christmas break,” said Sam Tate.

“While listings have lifted modestly, the bigger picture is that stock levels remain well below last year, which continues to underpin prices in most capital cities.”

“We’re also seeing some early accumulation in older listings, particularly in Melbourne and Adelaide, which suggests buyers are becoming more selective after strong price growth in 2025.”

“Overall, the market remains undersupplied. Unless new listings rise materially in the coming months, upward pressure on prices—especially in Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide—is likely to persist through the first half of 2026.”

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