Global infrastructure survey: conviction is near-universal but the era of broad, undifferentiated infrastructure exposure is over
Anish Butani
Institutional investor conviction in infrastructure remains exceptionally strong – but the way capital is being deployed is changing materially, according to a major new global survey from bfinance, the independent investment consultancy that advises more than 620 institutional investors across 47 countries.
The bfinance Global Infrastructure Survey 2026, based on one-to-one interviews with more than 40 senior institutional investors – including CIOs and Heads of Infrastructure – managing over US$4 trillion across 13 countries, found that more than 90% of respondents view infrastructure positively, 50% plan to increase their allocation, and 97% expect to commit capital in 2026.
Yet the survey also reveals that infrastructure is no longer treated as an automatic or undifferentiated allocation. Investors are becoming sharply more selective: pulling back from greenfield development and expressing growing caution around mega-fund fees and AI-driven digital infrastructure valuations. Meanwhile, there is increasing focus on operational brownfield assets, mid-cap strategies, European markets and shorter-duration fund structures.
Geopolitics and AI bubble fears top the agenda
Geopolitics emerged as the single biggest macro concern, cited by 25% of respondents, followed by regulatory and policy risk at 22%. Investors described geopolitics as an umbrella risk, cascading into inflation, supply chains and policy direction in ways that are difficult to anticipate.
Fears of an AI-related overbuild in digital infrastructure – flagged by 18% of respondents – have also risen sharply up the agenda. Investors cited concentration risk, valuation stretch and the potential for oversupply as key concerns, even as digital infrastructure remains a core sector preference overall.
The greenfield gap
One of the survey’s most striking findings is the disconnect between stated flexibility and actual portfolio construction. While 68% of investors report no formal cap on greenfield exposure, 74% describe their portfolios as predominantly brownfield (existing, operational assets) in practice – a gap driven by experience with rising construction costs, supply chain disruption and the difficulties of justifying j-curve profiles internally.
Investors said they increasingly favour operational assets with contracted cash flows and predictable downside protection. Energy transition remains the most preferred sector at 38%, followed by digital infrastructure at 24%, power and electrification at 18% and transport at 10%.
Geographic preferences shift toward Europe
Geographic allocation is also changing. Europe is the most preferred region for incremental capital, cited by 42% of investors, valued for its regulatory visibility, energy security priorities and perceived political stability. North America, at 27%, remains a core allocation but faces harder scrutiny over political and policy uncertainty. APAC and emerging markets remain selective, niche exposures for most, typically accessed via developed market or specialist managers.
Mid-cap strategies gain ground as fee pressure intensifies
Fee structures are under significant pressure. Twenty-two per cent of investors named lower fees as the single improvement most likely to unlock additional capital, with performance fees a particular area of concern over alignment.
This dynamic is driving a clear preference for mid-cap strategies over large-cap mega-funds, with 53% of respondents favouring mid-cap opportunities. Investors cited less competition, greater operational influence and broader exit optionality as key advantages. bfinance’s own performance analysis supports this, with small-cap funds showing stronger DPI outcomes across vintages, while large-cap funds have performed in line with or below broader asset class metrics.
Duration preferences and fund structure
Investors are also shortening their duration expectations. Sixty-one per cent prefer capital to be returned within a 15-year window, with governance and alignment concerns cited as key factors limiting appetite for longer-dated structures. Closed-ended funds remain the dominant deployment vehicle, though open-ended structures play a specific role in portfolio construction, pacing and liquidity management for some investors.
Return targets have shifted upward by approximately 100–200 basis points across strategies compared to predecessor vintages, reflecting a higher cost of capital and a broader repricing of risk. Most investors now target nominal returns of 8–10%, with income accounting for around half of total returns.
Anish Butani, Managing Director and Head of Infrastructure at bfinance, said: “This survey captures a market entering a more mature phase. The broad enthusiasm of the last decade is being replaced by far greater precision around risk, manager selection and portfolio construction. This is a refinement of capital allocation, not a retreat – and investors who approach it with rigour stand to benefit from a rich opportunity set in the years ahead.”
Frithjof van Zyp, Senior Director, Australia at bfinance, said: “What this survey tells us is that Australian investors are maturing in how they approach infrastructure. The days of broad, undifferentiated exposure are over. We’re seeing a much sharper focus on operational assets, on fee efficiency, and on making sure the risk in a portfolio is the risk investors actually want to be taking.”
