More volatile and constrained – the macro investment outlook for 2025

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Key points 2024 was another strong year for investors with shares up strongly on the back of better than feared growth & profits and global central banks cutting rates. Volatility... Read more continue reading

The Fed: diluting the punchbowl?

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Former Federal Reserve Chair William McChesney Martin was the longest serving Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair, serving almost 19 years until January 1970. He is famous for his description of the... Read more continue reading

Weekly economic and market update – week ending 13 December, 2024

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Investment markets and key developments Global shares were mixed over the last week with a back up in bond yields and a bit of profit taking after a strong run... Read more continue reading

Australia’s falling living standards – what’s driving it and how to fix it

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Key points Falling real wages and a surge in tax and interest payments have led to a slump in Australian living standards. But a broader driver of the malaise in... Read more continue reading

Weekly economic and market update – week ending 6 December, 2024

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Investment markets and key developments Despite another week of geopolitical noise with the fall of the French Government, a few hours of martial law in South Korea and more noise... Read more continue reading

Australian GDP and the RBA: the February door is ajar

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In some sense the September quarter national accounts don’t reveal much that wasn’t already known. Private demand is weak, but apparent supply constraints (exemplified by ongoing languishing productivity) are a... Read more continue reading

Goldilocks stayed for 2024, but what’s in store for investors in 2025?

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Key points The key themes for 2024 were: better than feared growth; global divergence; more disinflation; falling interest rates but with Australia lagging; and more geopolitical threats but not as... Read more continue reading

Trump 2.0: Why investors should expect a somewhat rougher ride, but it may not be as bad as feared

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Key points The economic and financial environment today is more challenging than when Trump first took over in 2017: inflation is a bit higher, the budget deficit is worse, bond... Read more continue reading

Weekly economic and market update – week ending 15 November, 2024

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Investment markets and key developments Global share markets were messy over the last week, not helped by the ongoing rise in bond yields and a wind back in Fed rate... Read more continue reading

Five ways to turn down the noise, stay focussed (and survive Trump)

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Key points A surge in financial information and opinion along with our natural inclination to focus on bad news is arguably making us worse investors: more fearful and short-term focussed.... Read more continue reading