Firm growth in spending across the nation

From

Commonwealth Bank Business Sales Index Economy-wide spending posted firm growth in June according to the Commonwealth Bank Business Sales Indicator (BSI). In trend terms the BSI lifted by 0.7 per cent in June after a similar gain in May. The annual trend growth in sales lifted from 8.5 per cent in May to 9.0 per […]

continue reading

It’s Official – The New Neutral Arrives Down Under

From

It was way back in May 2013 when PIMCO first uttered the phrase “The New Neutral” in relation to Australia’s cash rate. At that time, we estimated the “New Neutral” rate for Australia to be about 3%. We stand by that view. Today, over 4 years later, the RBA explicitly referenced 3.5% as their estimate […]

continue reading

Chinese economic data beat forecasts

From

Chinese economic data; Petrol prices Chinese economic data: The Chinese economy grew at a 6.9 per cent annual pace in the June quarter, above forecasts (+6.8 per cent). The economy grew by 1.7 per cent in the June quarter, up from 1.3 per cent in the March quarter and in line with the forecast estimate […]

continue reading

Global snapshot – July 2017

From

The Janus Henderson Global Snapshot explores the themes and trends to watch across key global markets. Market drivers Australia: Off to a soggy start Poor weather was a factor behind GDP rising by only 0.3% over the March quarter. Cyclone Debbie will distort June quarter data but growth is expected to rebound over the second half […]

continue reading

An update on how the Australian economy looks on a per capita basis

From

Strong population growth continues to boost Australia’s aggregate growth rates which paint a more positive picture on the economy than what most households are experiencing. Per capita measures on the economy, particularly those relating to income, suggest that there hasn’t been a lot of joy for households since the end of the mining boom. Local […]

continue reading

Australia’s long-term outlook is less rosy: PIMCO

From

After 25 years of steady economic growth, Australia is on the verge of wresting bragging rights from the Netherlands for the longest period on record without a recession. While this historic event should be celebrated, the future may not be as rosy. PIMCO’s base case calls for Australia to keep growing moderately over the next […]

continue reading

Best business conditions in almost a decade

From

Housing Finance; NAB Business survey; Consumer Sentiment Business survey: The NAB business conditions index rose from +10.9 points to a 9½-year high of +15.1 points in June. The business confidence index rose from +7.5 points to +9.3 points. Home loans: The number of loans (commitments) for budding home owners (owner-occupiers) rose by 1.0 per cent […]

continue reading

Petrol near 9-month lows; Tame China inflation

From

Petrol prices; China inflation data Petrol: According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average Australian price of unleaded petrol rose by 0.1 cents to 120.1 cents a litre in the past week. Chinese inflation: Consumer prices held steady at an annual growth rate of 1.5 per cent in the year to June (forecast […]

continue reading

Weekly market update – week ending 7 July, 2017

From

Investment markets and key developments over the past week Global share markets were messy again over the last week as bond yields backed up further continuing the latest “taper tantrum” that was kicked off by several central banks led by the ECB just over a week ago. Eurozone shares rose slightly but US, Japanese, Chinese […]

continue reading

From goldilocks to taper tantrum 2.0 – a bit of turbulence hits bonds (and shares) – three reasons not to be too fussed

From

Key points Central banks beyond the US are edging towards an exit from easy money. This is likely to cause bouts of volatility in shares and a rising trend in bond yields. However, its unlikely to derail the bull market in shares as any move to tightening reflects stronger growth (and profits), low inflation pressures […]

continue reading