Fed: probably not but probably should – will that test the bond market’s patience?

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The Federal Reserve’s policy rate setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets next week. At this point markets do not see much chance of a policy rate increase with market-based... Read more continue reading

The strength of the USD

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USD: the “cleanest dirty shirt”. It wasn’t that long ago that “dollar debasement” was flavour of the month. An adversarial stance on trade and geopolitics was thought to lead to... Read more continue reading

Weekly economic and market update – week ending 2 October, 2026

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Investment markets and key developments Global share markets were mixed over the last week with US and Eurozone shares down as bond yields rose further, whereas Japanese shares surged helped... Read more continue reading

Weekly economic and market update – week ending 25 September, 2026

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Investment markets and key developments Global share markets mostly rose over the last week helped by strong US economic data, a return of AI optimism and renewed hopes for a... Read more continue reading

The Fed looks like it’s going to hike – implications for investors & Australia

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Key points The Fed is likely to start raising interest rates to combat sticky inflation and affirm its credibility. First Fed rate hikes in a tightening cycle don’t normally signal... Read more continue reading

Weekly economic and market update – week ending 11 September, 2026

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Investment markets and key developments Global share markets fell again over the last week as both oil prices and bond yields pushed higher with more upwards pressure on central bank... Read more continue reading

The super cycle bear market in bonds and the return of “bond vigilantes”

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Key points Bond yields are being pushed higher by concerns about inflation, high public debt, rising corporate borrowing, rising Japanese bond yields and increasing economic uncertainty. This is part of... Read more continue reading

Weekly economic and market update – week ending 4 September, 2026

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Investment markets and key developments Global share markets were mixed over the last week not helped by worries about rising oil prices and rising bond yields. US shares managed a... Read more continue reading

The irresistible rise in long-term rates

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The end of forward guidance, geopolitical pressures, resilient economic activity, and growing financing needs: an explosive mix The start of the conflict in the Middle East has been the catalyst... Read more continue reading

Australian monthly CPI inflation

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Yesterday’s Australian monthly CPI inflation report makes the September RBA meeting “live”. In my assessment the Board should increase the policy rate at that meeting. I expect it will. The... Read more continue reading