Commonwealth Bank Business Sales Index Economy-wide spending posted firm growth in June according to the Commonwealth Bank Business Sales Indicator (BSI). In trend terms the BSI lifted by 0.7 per cent in June after a similar gain in May. The annual trend growth in sales lifted from 8.5 per cent in May to 9.0 per […]
continue readingIt was way back in May 2013 when PIMCO first uttered the phrase “The New Neutral” in relation to Australia’s cash rate. At that time, we estimated the “New Neutral” rate for Australia to be about 3%. We stand by that view. Today, over 4 years later, the RBA explicitly referenced 3.5% as their estimate […]
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20
Jul
2017
Chinese economic data; Petrol prices Chinese economic data: The Chinese economy grew at a 6.9 per cent annual pace in the June quarter, above forecasts (+6.8 per cent). The economy grew by 1.7 per cent in the June quarter, up from 1.3 per cent in the March quarter and in line with the forecast estimate […]
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18
Jul
2017
The Janus Henderson Global Snapshot explores the themes and trends to watch across key global markets. Market drivers Australia: Off to a soggy start Poor weather was a factor behind GDP rising by only 0.3% over the March quarter. Cyclone Debbie will distort June quarter data but growth is expected to rebound over the second half […]
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17
Jul
2017
Strong population growth continues to boost Australia’s aggregate growth rates which paint a more positive picture on the economy than what most households are experiencing. Per capita measures on the economy, particularly those relating to income, suggest that there hasn’t been a lot of joy for households since the end of the mining boom. Local […]
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13
Jul
2017
After 25 years of steady economic growth, Australia is on the verge of wresting bragging rights from the Netherlands for the longest period on record without a recession. While this historic event should be celebrated, the future may not be as rosy. PIMCO’s base case calls for Australia to keep growing moderately over the next […]
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12
Jul
2017
Housing Finance; NAB Business survey; Consumer Sentiment Business survey: The NAB business conditions index rose from +10.9 points to a 9½-year high of +15.1 points in June. The business confidence index rose from +7.5 points to +9.3 points. Home loans: The number of loans (commitments) for budding home owners (owner-occupiers) rose by 1.0 per cent […]
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12
Jul
2017
Petrol prices; China inflation data Petrol: According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average Australian price of unleaded petrol rose by 0.1 cents to 120.1 cents a litre in the past week. Chinese inflation: Consumer prices held steady at an annual growth rate of 1.5 per cent in the year to June (forecast […]
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11
Jul
2017
Investment markets and key developments over the past week Global share markets were messy again over the last week as bond yields backed up further continuing the latest “taper tantrum” that was kicked off by several central banks led by the ECB just over a week ago. Eurozone shares rose slightly but US, Japanese, Chinese […]
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10
Jul
2017
Key points Central banks beyond the US are edging towards an exit from easy money. This is likely to cause bouts of volatility in shares and a rising trend in bond yields. However, its unlikely to derail the bull market in shares as any move to tightening reflects stronger growth (and profits), low inflation pressures […]
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06
Jul
2017
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CPD: Global oil - the recovery continuesThe market is currently positioned with expectations for higher crude oil prices – as evidenced by net positioning in the...
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