Podcast 18: The market versus the RBA – is a hike before 2024 likely?

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The RBA is sticking with their timing of 2024 before they look at an increase in interest rates. The market believes that inflation will be back sooner than the RBA is forecasting. What’s driving the differing opinions and who’s right? Tune in to hear Darren Langer and Chris Rands discuss their views in episode 18... Read more continue reading

Lowe speech to Economic Society today following Tuesday RBA Board meeting. Pushing back against market pricing?   

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RBA Governor Lowe spoke yesterday to the Australian Economic Society yesterday on The Labour Market and Monetary Policy. Following in the wake of Tuesday’s RBA decision I expect the Governor to push back, albeit in a subtle manner, against market pricing of an increase in cash rate in 2022. Markets have priced a roughly 25bp... Read more continue reading

Inflation: transitory or persistent?

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“The big talking point in the market at the moment is inflation. Over the last 40 years inflation has been generally contained within or below the targets we have seen set by central banks but recent signs point to higher levels of inflation around the world.” “There are additional pressures as well. In March, US... Read more continue reading

A tale of two hemispheres: Economic recovery from COVID-19

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While much of the developed world appears to be on the road to recovery, aided by the rapid roll-out of vaccines, the outlook for many poorer countries is far less favourable, says Head of Multi-Strategy, Ian Pizer. The global economy looks to be recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic faster than once seemed probable, with the... Read more continue reading

Podcast 17: Could an increase in interest rates derail the housing market?

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The market has seen a small increase in fixed-rate mortgages from some of the banks. Is this the beginning of a tightening cycle and has the Australian consumer seen the last of ultra-low interest rates? In episode 17 of The Rate Debate, Darren Langer and Chris Rands discuss if a potential increase in inflation combined... Read more continue reading

Podcast 16: Are we heading for a debt trap?

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The government’s policies have been focused on spending and encouraging Australians to borrow more, driving strong credit growth. The impact of this approach is that the more indebted Australian’s are, the harder it is for the RBA to increase interest rates. Darren Langer and Chris Rands discuss whether Australia could fall into a potential debt... Read more continue reading

CPD: Six reasons to not worry about inflation

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It’s that time in the cycle again. US bond markets and commentors are worried about inflation. But with US unemployment at 6.2%, should this be a concern? Before we begin, let’s define what we are actually discussing. Rising prices are a pre-condition for what we define as inflation; but this isn’t the only condition. Inflation... Read more continue reading

Podcast 15: Is the free ride over?

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The RBA’s stimulus policies have boosted the economy post COVID-19 driving increases in house prices, retail sales, and employment but is this a double-edged sword? Darren Langer and Chris Rands discuss the impact of the RBA’s policies on future growth, and question who will pay for it in the long run in episode 15 of... Read more continue reading

Podcast 14: What’s driving interest rates higher?

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Bonds experienced their fastest sell off since 2009, resulting in the largest one month rise in 10-year yields. Given the economic outlook is looking more positive globally, is the rise justified and where to next for bond yields? Darren Langer and Chris Rands delve into these questions and more in episode fourteen of The Rate... Read more continue reading

Podcast 13: Could housing be the good news story for 2021?

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Everyone loves a good housing story and it’s looking like 2021 could become a best seller. But at what cost? According to the numbers, we’re still in an economic hole, and with immigration down 80% and the government’s income support program about to end, are we setting ourselves up for a down fall? Darren Langer... Read more continue reading