Podcast 23: The reopening trade to determine economic growth in 2022

From

One of the key factors that will make or break the case for the RBA tightening in 2022 will be the reopening trade. Will consumers start spending heavily as is forecast, or will the threat of inflation and a rise in interest rates scare them off? Darren and Chris discuss their views in the last... Read more continue reading

The Long and The Short: The tide of inflation

From

Six months ago, we wrote that inflation was on the horizon. We continue to field questions on the topic, so are revisiting it with our current thoughts. Inflation looking less transitory Signs continue to indicate that inflation is creeping into the system. Central and global banks don’t tend to agree, but we think the tone... Read more continue reading

Podcast 22: Bond market loses confidence in the RBA’s forward guidance

From

While the RBA maintained its view of holding rates until at least 2024, Australia’s central bank has now acknowledged the need to curtail the housing boom and signalled the potential introduction of macroprudential measures. With APRA set to tighten lending standards, will we see heat come out of the red-hot domestic housing market? Darren Langer... Read more continue reading

Podcast 21: Is the heat coming off the housing market?

From

While the RBA maintained its view of holding rates until at least 2024, Australia’s central bank has now acknowledged the need to curtail the housing boom and signalled the potential introduction of macroprudential measures. With APRA set to tighten lending standards, will we see heat come out of the red-hot domestic housing market? Darren Langer... Read more continue reading

Podcast 20: Is the RBA banking on a rebound?

From

The RBA expects a material slowdown in economic growth in September, but is forecasting a bounce-back in December that will stretch into the first half of 2022. Given market uncertainties, is the RBA’s confidence justified and could it mean higher interest rates are coming? Tune in to hear Darren Langer and Chris Rands debate their... Read more continue reading

Higher inflation can be a friend to real estate investors

From

When investing in real estate, higher inflation is more likely to be a friend than a foe, helping protect investment from supply side issues and driving up the residual value of improvements, says Justin Blaess, portfolio manager at Quay Global Investors. “We take the view that investors shouldn’t fear inflation, particularly when it comes to... Read more continue reading

Great investment quotes for topsy turvy times

From

Introduction The current environment seems to be one of extreme uncertainty. We have seen a strong economic recovery from last year’s global and Australian recessions – but there are worries about the resurgence of coronavirus driven by the Delta variant, peak growth, peak monetary and fiscal stimulus, high inflation, and high debt levels. And ‘get... Read more continue reading

Podcast 19: RBA sees Delta impact as a temporary phenomenon

From

The RBA continues to be optimistic despite the current state lockdowns, forecasting the economy to bounce back quickly once the virus is contained. Is the RBA taking a gamble on their positive outlook given the uncertainties in the market right now? Tune in to hear Darren Langer and Chris Rands debate their views in episode... Read more continue reading

Podcast 18: The market versus the RBA – is a hike before 2024 likely?

From

The RBA is sticking with their timing of 2024 before they look at an increase in interest rates. The market believes that inflation will be back sooner than the RBA is forecasting. What’s driving the differing opinions and who’s right? Tune in to hear Darren Langer and Chris Rands discuss their views in episode 18... Read more continue reading

Lowe speech to Economic Society today following Tuesday RBA Board meeting. Pushing back against market pricing?   

From

RBA Governor Lowe spoke yesterday to the Australian Economic Society yesterday on The Labour Market and Monetary Policy. Following in the wake of Tuesday’s RBA decision I expect the Governor to push back, albeit in a subtle manner, against market pricing of an increase in cash rate in 2022. Markets have priced a roughly 25bp... Read more continue reading